FIGS, Inc. (FIGS): what the price requires
At today's price, FIGS, Inc. (FIGS) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~21.7 years. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/FIGS
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | FIGS |
| Company | FIGS, Inc. |
| Current price | $10.07/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin today | 4.0% |
| Must persist for | 21.7y |
| Multiple paid | 81x operating income |
Solve inputs: computed at a 12.5% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~3 years.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~13.4 years; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: elevated
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.46σ |
| sustained it ~10 years at this level | 14% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 4.44x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 5.08x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.54x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 0.92x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=17)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $6.45 | 1.56x | yes | FCF base $0.0B, growth 19% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.0%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $11.42 | 0.88x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 35.8x / 37.8x / 39.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $6.52 | 1.54x | yes | P/E 29.97x (blended: static sector reference 22x + trailing (TTM) 49x), scenarios: 24.4x / 30.0x / 35.5x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 21.13x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $2.24 | 4.49x | yes | BV/sh $2.20, ROE (TTM) 9.4%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $2.26 | 4.45x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $10.96 | 0.92x | yes | Rev $0.7B, growth 19% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.4x / 3.0x / 3.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $2.64 | 3.81x | yes | EPS $0.22, growth 2% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=24.28 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $1.03 | 9.77x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.02B × (1−2%) / WACC 9.0% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $2.27 | 4.43x | yes | BV $2.20 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 9.4% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 6.1%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $3.30 | 3.05x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $0.22 × BVPS $2.20) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $3.61 | 2.79x | yes | EBITDA $0.05B × sector EV/EBITDA 14.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $1.98 | 5.08x | yes | FCF $39.4M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.59 | 17.06x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.01B (FCF $0.04B − SBC $0.03B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $7.10 | 1.42x | yes | EPS $0.22 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $0.23 | 43.76x | yes | BV $2.20 × (ROIC 0.9% / WACC 9.0%) (excluded from median) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $6.79 | 1.48x | yes | Revenue $0.67B × sector P/S 2.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $8.25 | 1.22x | yes | EPS $0.22 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $2.38 | 4.23x | yes | EPS $0.22 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $277.0m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | -11.92x (net cash) |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | -11.63x (net cash) |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 0.3% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
FIGS is a growth-stage brand, not a mature one, and the numbers should be read that way. Q1 2026 revenue rose 28% to $159.9 million, active customers crossed 3 million, and the company swung back to a small profit, prompting management to lift full-year revenue guidance to 14% to 16% growth.
The valuation is steep on every static method. With an operating margin near 6%, the price implies the company earning at a high level for an extraordinarily long stretch, which is why only the growth-DCF reaches today's $12 and the no-growth methods sit near $1 to $2.
The swing variable is tariffs. FIGS sources from Vietnam and Jordan, and gross margin already fell 440 basis points to 62.9% on tariff and inventory pressure, with more tariff cost embedded in the 2026 outlook.
Bull Case
FIGS is best understood as a brand still in its growth stage, and that framing is the whole bull case. Mature-company methods look at a 6% operating margin and call the stock absurd, but a growth-stage business is supposed to be reinvesting margin into customer acquisition and international expansion, not maximizing near-term profit. The Q1 2026 numbers fit that profile: revenue up 28% to $159.9 million, active customers crossing 3 million for the first time, and a return to profitability with positive EPS. Crucially, management raised full-year revenue guidance from 10%-to-12% growth to 14%-to-16%, and lifted the adjusted EBITDA margin outlook to about 13%, which is a company telling you the reinvestment is starting to convert.
The brand itself is the asset the balance sheet does not show. The 10-K describes a tight feedback loop with medical professionals, using focus groups and practitioner testing to understand how they move and work (accession 0001628280-26-012333), and a positioning of premium products at an affordable price point across nurses, practitioners, and dental and other specialties (accession 0001628280-26-012333). Healthcare apparel is replenishment-driven and worn daily, so a brand that earns clinician loyalty captures a recurring purchase, and management has noted strong repeat buying with less price sensitivity than expected.
The international leg is the visible growth runway. International revenue grew 50% year over year while the core U.S. e-commerce business stayed strong, and the company is still building community hubs and teams abroad. The exit-multiple DCF lands at $14 and the future-market-cap method at $13, both at or above the current price, which is the signature of a business the growth methods can value and the static ones cannot. For a buyer who underwrites a multi-year category expansion from a beloved brand at a depressed share price, the setup is a growth story the market has stopped paying for.
Bear Case
The variable with the most leverage on FIGS is trade policy, and the price barely reflects how exposed it is. The company sources its products from Vietnam and Jordan, which places it squarely in the path of the new tariff regime. The damage is already in the numbers: gross margin fell 440 basis points to 62.9% on a combination of a $5.6 million inventory write-off and tariff pressure, and management has embedded a step-up to a 15% tariff rate in the back-half outlook, with roughly 280 basis points of new tariff cost expected to weigh on 2026 margins. A premium apparel brand whose entire economics rest on a high gross margin is precisely the business that a tariff shock damages most, because there is no domestic-sourcing escape hatch and price increases risk the affordability positioning the brand was built on.
The valuation leaves no room for that pressure. With an operating margin near 6%, the inversion has to assume the company earns at an elevated level for about 24 years to justify the price, and the model flags the resulting read as elevated with low reliability. The static methods are blunt: the earnings-power method lands near $1, the SBC-adjusted FCF method below $1, the excess-return methods near $2, and the relative methods between $3 and $7, all far below the $12 price. Only the growth-DCF reaches the level, and it does so by extrapolating a long, smooth ramp from a thin current margin. Strip the optimism and the stock trades at many times what its present economics support.
The demand side adds cyclical risk on top of the cost side. Management frames healthcare apparel as non-discretionary and replenishment-driven, which is partly true, but FIGS sells premium products into a category with cheap alternatives, and in a weaker consumer environment clinicians can stretch replacement cycles or trade down. The stock carries a high beta, fell sharply even after the Q1 beat, and the consensus median price target sits near $9, below the current price. A growth-stage brand with a high cost of capital, a tariff-squeezed margin, and a price that requires decades of strong execution is a fragile combination, and the tariff variable can move it before the growth story has a chance to prove itself.
Valuation
Inverting the price exposes how demanding it is. With an operating margin near 6%, the price corresponds to roughly 99 times operating income, and because the implied growth runs into the ceiling the solve switches to duration: it requires the company to sustain elevated economics for about 24 years. The model tags that read as elevated with low reliability, which is the honest signal that the assumption is at the edge of what the framework can support. The high beta lifts the cost of capital used in the solve, making the long duration even harder to clear.
The model X-ray is lopsided. Only the growth family approaches the price, with the exit-multiple DCF at $14, the future-market-cap method at $13, and the perpetual-growth DCF at $6. Every other family is far below: the relative methods land between $3 and $7, the excess-return and residual-income methods near $2, and the earnings-power and FCF-yield methods at $1 to $2.
The resulting band runs from about $1.28 at the low end to $1.69 at the base and $1.99 at the high, with reliability explicitly tagged as low. Today's price near $12 sits far above that band. That gap is the entire question: on no-growth and asset methods the stock is worth a small fraction of the price, and only a long, durable growth ramp, the kind the exit-multiple and future-market-cap methods assume, can justify it. The deciding variables are whether the international expansion compounds and whether tariffs let the gross margin recover, and the price has already bet that both go right.
Catalysts
Q1 2026 was the most recent data point and it was a beat that the market sold. Revenue rose 28% to $159.9 million, active customers topped 3 million for the first time, the company swung to a small net profit with EPS of $0.03, and international revenue grew 50%. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to 14% to 16% growth from 10% to 12% and lifted the adjusted EBITDA margin outlook to about 13%, yet the shares fell post-earnings, a sign that expectations and valuation were already stretched. The next print is the test of whether the reaccelerated growth holds.
Tariffs are the dominant swing factor. FIGS sources from Vietnam and Jordan and has assumed a 10% tariff rate through late July 2026 stepping to 15% thereafter, with roughly 280 basis points of new tariff cost embedded in 2026 margins. Any change in trade policy, in either direction, would move the gross-margin trajectory that the whole valuation hinges on, so tariff headlines matter more here than the demand line.
The international build-out is the multi-year catalyst to track, as the company scales community hubs and teams abroad off a 50% growth rate. Sentiment is cautious: the consensus is neutral with a median price target near $9 and a range from about $6 to $15, framing the stock as fully valued to expensive after the run. A growth-stage brand with a tariff overhang and a high implied bar is one where the next few quarters of margin and growth data decide the direction.
Sources: indexbox.io (Q1 2026 results), investing.com (Q1 2026 transcript), ainvest.com (tariff and margin detail), stockanalysis.com (FIGS forecast).
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Core business (reported)
- CRI (Carter's, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GIII (G III APPAREL GROUP LTD /DE/)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- COLM (COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR COMPANY)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- BOOT (BOOT BARN HOLDINGS, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- BKE (BUCKLE, INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.