F&G Annuities & Life, Inc. (FG): what the price requires

At today's price, F&G Annuities & Life, Inc. (FG) is priced for 10.2% return on equity. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/FG

Headline

FieldValue
TickerFG
CompanyF&G Annuities & Life, Inc.
Current price$30.61/sh

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basisfinancials
Return on equity needed10.2%
Return on equity now5.2%
ROE gap+5.0pp
Price-to-book0.87x

Solve inputs: computed at a 11% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage, on common book equity (FY2026); each 1pp of cost of equity moves the implied ROE ~0.9pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~8.6%; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

ReferenceValue
vs own history-0.43σ
cohort percentile (of 80 peers)10
sustained it ~10 years at this level76%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset0.66x3justifies
Earnings0.49x2justifies
Relative0.66x3justifies
Growth0.85x2justifies

Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.6%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=10)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth——no—
Bank Fair Value (P/TBV)—$25.831.19xyesTBVPS $18.09 × 1.43x (ROE (TTM) 11.5% / CoE 9.3%, g=5.0% (sustainable: 65% retention × ROE, 5% cap; not the terminal-growth assumption), credit 1.15% allowance/loans → ×0.93)
Relative ValuationRelative$46.600.66xyesP/E 11x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 8.9x / 11.0x / 13.1x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 10x
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth$38.780.79xyesStage 1: 20% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$41.530.74xyesBV/sh $33.37, ROE (TTM) 11.5%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$46.120.66xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$33.910.90xyesRev $6.0B, growth 19% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 0.6x / 0.7x / 0.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$46.320.66xyesEPS $3.86, growth 2% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=3.98 (Overvalued)
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings——no—
Residual IncomeAsset——no—
Graham NumberAsset$53.840.57xyes√(22.5 × EPS $3.86 × BVPS $33.37) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative——no—
FCF YieldEarnings——no—
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings——no—
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$124.550.25xyesEPS $3.86 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset——no—
P/Sales SectorRelative——no—
PEG Fair ValueRelative$144.750.21xyesEPS $3.86 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x
Earnings YieldEarnings$41.730.73xyesEPS $3.86 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Share count CAGR (dilution)7.3%

Deposit/float-funded balance sheet: debt is funding, not corporate leverage, and GAAP operating cash flow follows loan flows. Net-debt, interest-coverage, and cash-burn lenses do not apply. The solvency frame for a financial is regulatory capital and payout capacity (CET1, stress buffer, dividends plus buybacks against earnings).

Bullet Takeaways

The one number that frames this name is book value per share of about $33 against a stock price near $27. F&G trades below its own equity while earning roughly 11.5% on that equity, a return comfortably above its 9.3% cost of capital.

Every valuation family lands above the price. Relative valuation and the excess-return methods cluster in the low-to-mid $40s, and the bank-style tangible-book model sits near the price at $26. This is a value-supported insurer, not a growth bet.

Q1 2026 was strong: net earnings of $244 million, or $1.78 per share, adjusted earnings of $110 million, record assets under management of $74.5 billion up 11%, and gross sales of $3.2 billion. The board added a new buyback.

Bull Case

The decisive fact about F&G is that the stock trades below the book value it is steadily growing. Book value per share sits near $33 while the shares trade around $27 (June 27, 2026), so an investor is buying the equity at roughly 0.8 times its carrying value, and that equity earns about 11.5% against a 9.3% cost of capital. A financial that earns more than its cost of capital should trade at a premium to book, not a discount, and the only methods that even approach the current price are the most conservative ones. The relative-valuation method lands at $47, the excess-return methods at $42 to $46, and the Graham number at $54. The cheapness is the thesis.

The franchise behind that equity is scaling, not shrinking. F&G reached record assets under management of $74.5 billion before reinsurance at the end of Q1 2026, up 11% year over year, on $3.2 billion of gross sales in the quarter. The distribution reach is wide and entrenched: the 10-K describes long-standing relationships spanning nearly 187,000 independent agents and financial advisors (accession 0001934850-26-000026), alongside growth engines in pension risk transfer and funding agreements that draw steady institutional demand (accession 0001934850-26-000026). An annuity writer with rising AUM and a broad, sticky distribution channel is compounding the very book value the market is discounting.

Management is leaning into the gap rather than ignoring it. The board authorized a new buyback in March 2026 and the company has paired dividends with an enhanced $100 million repurchase authorization, which is exactly what a business should do when its own shares trade below book and its returns exceed its cost of capital. Buying back stock under book value is accretive to remaining holders, and a company doing it while AUM hits records is signaling confidence that the discount is temporary. For a buyer who is paid to wait through the dividend, the value-supported setup does most of the work.

Bear Case

Begin with the uncomfortable qualitative fact, because the numbers only make sense once you accept it: this stock is cheap for reasons that do not show up in book value. F&G is roughly 70% owned by Fidelity National Financial, so the public float is small and minority holders sit beneath a controlling parent whose interests will not always align with theirs. A controlled company with a thin float trades at a structural discount because the market cannot count on a clean path to value, and no amount of below-book math fixes a governance overhang. That is the first answer to why the price sits under every method.

The second is what the equity actually is. An annuity and life insurer is a leveraged spread business: it takes in policyholder money, invests it, and keeps the gap between investment yield and crediting rate. Book value is an accounting figure built on the carrying value of a large investment portfolio and a stack of long-dated reserves, and it can move sharply with credit losses, rate shifts, and reinsurance recapture. The Q1 net earnings of $244 million dwarfed the $110 million of adjusted earnings, a gap that reflects market-driven items rather than core spread, so the headline EPS overstates the run-rate. The bank-style tangible-book model, the most appropriate frame for a financial, lands right at the price near $26, which says the conservative read is that the stock is roughly fairly valued, not deeply cheap.

The macro lever is the investment portfolio. The business is sensitive to credit spreads and to the path of rates on both the asset and liability sides, and a recession that widens spreads or impairs the portfolio would hit the book value that anchors the bull case. The sell-side has already trimmed expectations, with Barclays cutting its target to $31 from $35, and the consensus near $32 implies only modest upside.

Valuation

F&G is a financial, so the read is the return on equity against its cost and the multiple of book the market assigns, not a growth inversion. The business earns about 11.5% on equity against a 9.3% cost of capital, a positive spread that should support a premium to book. Instead the stock trades near $27 against book value per share of about $33, roughly 0.8 times book. The bank-style tangible-book model, adjusted for portfolio credit, lands at about $26, essentially at the price, which is the conservative anchor.

The other methods are more generous and explain the value-supported label. Relative valuation puts it at $47 on a sector P/E near 11x, the simple and two-stage excess-return methods at $42 and $46, the Graham number at $54, and the earnings-yield method at $42. The two-stage dividend-discount method lands at $39. The blended view across the applicable methods sits near $46, and the resulting band runs wide, from about $45 at the low end to $80 at the base and $104 at the high, with reliability tagged as ok. That width reflects the genuine uncertainty in valuing a leveraged spread book.

Today's price sits below even the low end of that band, which is why the composite reads within range as a value-supported name rather than a growth bet. The honest summary is that on book value and earnings power the stock is cheap, and on the controlling-owner and portfolio-risk realities the market is applying a discount that the methods do not capture. The deciding variable is whether the AUM growth and below-book buybacks close that gap, or whether the structural discount persists.

Catalysts

Q1 2026, reported May 6, was the most recent data point and it was strong on the operating lines. Net earnings attributable to common shareholders were $244 million, or $1.78 per diluted share, against a small loss a year earlier, with adjusted net earnings of $110 million, or $0.82 per share, up from $0.72. Assets under management before reinsurance reached a record $74.5 billion, up 11%, on gross sales of $3.2 billion. The next print is the test of whether AUM and adjusted earnings keep compounding while market-driven items normalize.

Capital return is the most direct catalyst for closing the discount to book. The board authorized a new buyback in March 2026, and the company paired dividends with an enhanced $100 million repurchase authorization. Repurchases executed below book value are accretive, so the pace of buybacks is worth tracking as a signal of how aggressively management intends to attack the gap.

The ownership structure is the overhang to watch. Fidelity National Financial retains roughly 70% of F&G after the year-end distribution, so any change in that stake, or in the parent's intentions, would move the float and the discount more than an ordinary quarter. Sell-side sentiment is cautious: the consensus target sits near $32, and Barclays recently trimmed its target to $31 from $35, implying modest upside from the high $20s.

Sources: investors.fglife.com (Q1 2026 release), stockanalysis.com (FG overview), tipranks.com (FG forecast), simplywall.st (FG buyback note).

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

F&G Annuities & Life (consolidated insurance) (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

View the full interactive FG report on boothcheck