FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ (FCNCA): what the price requires

At today's price, FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ (FCNCA) is priced for 11.7% return on equity. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/FCNCA

Headline

FieldValue
TickerFCNCA
CompanyFIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/
Current price$2097.49/sh
CompositionGeneral Bank 44% / Commercial Bank 48% / Rail 8%

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basisfinancials
Return on equity needed11.7%
Return on equity now10.6%
ROE gap+1.1pp
Price-to-book1.23x

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.2% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage, on common book equity (FY2026); each 1pp of cost of equity moves the implied ROE ~1.2pp.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

ReferenceValue
vs own history+0.73σ
cohort percentile (of 119 peers)36
sustained it ~10 years at this level71%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset0.98x3justifies
Earnings1.24x2expensive
Relative1.05x3expensive
Growth1.28x1expensive

Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=9)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth——no—
Bank Fair Value (P/TBV)—$2056.211.02xyesTBVPS $1804.63 × 1.14x (ROE (TTM) 10.2% / CoE 9.3%, g=5.0% (sustainable: 65% retention × ROE, 5% cap; not the terminal-growth assumption), credit 1.06% allowance/loans → ×0.92)
Relative ValuationRelative$2000.501.05xyesP/E 10x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 8.4x / 10.0x / 11.6x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA N/Ax
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$2046.141.03xyesBV/sh $1848.90, ROE (TTM) 10.2%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$2149.220.98xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$1635.091.28xyesRev $9.6B, growth 6% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.2x / 2.6x / 3.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$2080.801.01xyesEPS $173.40, growth 1% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=10.69 (Overvalued)
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings——no—
Residual IncomeAsset——no—
Graham NumberAsset$2685.800.78xyes√(22.5 × EPS $173.40 × BVPS $1848.90) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative——no—
FCF YieldEarnings——no—
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings——no—
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$1536.571.37xyesEPS $173.40 × (8.5 + 2×1.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset——no—
P/Sales SectorRelative——no—
PEG Fair ValueRelative$867.002.42xyesEPS $173.40 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 1.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 1.6x
Earnings YieldEarnings$1874.591.12xyesEPS $173.40 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Share count CAGR (buyback)-6.8%

Deposit/float-funded balance sheet: debt is funding, not corporate leverage, and GAAP operating cash flow follows loan flows. Net-debt, interest-coverage, and cash-burn lenses do not apply. The solvency frame for a financial is regulatory capital and payout capacity (CET1, stress buffer, dividends plus buybacks against earnings).

Bullet Takeaways

First Citizens trades at about 1.2x book at $2,073.30, which prices a sustained return on equity near 11.7% against a recently-earned figure of about 10.6%; the inversion reads that as within range, and the asset, earnings-power, and relative-multiple families all support the price while only the growth-DCF says expensive.

Capital allocation is the standout: in early 2026 the bank returned about $900 million via buybacks, prepaid $2.50 billion of its Purchase Money Note, and retired roughly 9.23% of its share count under the July 2025 authorization, compounding book value per share at a reasonable multiple.

The bear caution is cycle and accretion: a large slice of recent profitability traces to the 2023 SVB acquisition (FDIC shared-loss support, deal accretion that fades), net interest margin is under pressure from lower rates, and aggressive buybacks near a potential earnings peak carry their own risk.

Bull Case

The clearest window into First Citizens BancShares is its capital allocation, because how this bank deploys cash tells you where management sees value, and the answer right now is its own stock. In the first quarter of 2026 the bank returned about $900 million to shareholders through repurchases and prepaid $2.50 billion of its Purchase Money Note; from January 1 to late April it repurchased over 1.1 million shares for about $2.22 billion, retiring roughly 9.23% of the share count under the buyback authorized in July 2025. Buying back nearly a tenth of the company in well under a year, while trading near 1.2x book, is a management team telling you it thinks the shares are worth more than the market is paying, and it is the engine compounding book value per share.

The franchise behind the capital return is a serial, disciplined acquirer. First Citizens built itself through FDIC-assisted and negotiated deals, most consequentially the 2023 acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank, which the filing describes managing under FDIC commercial shared-loss agreements with integration of personnel, systems, and controls (accession 0000798941-25-000010). The shared-loss structure limits the downside on covered loans while the bank earns the upside, and the SVB deal added a national commercial and innovation-economy franchise on top of the legacy General Bank, Commercial Bank, and Rail leasing segments. That diversified, acquisition-built base earns a respectable return on equity, recently around 10.6%.

The valuation supports the price across most frames. The asset-based, earnings-power, and relative-multiple families all support the current level; only the growth-DCF says expensive, which for a bank already trading slightly above book is the expected complaint. At $2,073.30 (June 27, 2026) the price assumes a roughly 11.7% return on equity, modestly above the recently-earned 10.6%, which the inversion reads as within reach, and the price-to-book sits in the lower half of the peer group. The bull wager is that a well-capitalized, acquisitive bank aggressively retiring stock at a reasonable multiple compounds shareholder value even without a dramatic improvement in the underlying return.

Bear Case

The bear question for First Citizens is whether the current earnings reflect a sustainable run-rate or a favorable point in the cycle that flattered the numbers. A large slice of recent profitability traces to the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank acquisition, which came with FDIC shared-loss support and a discount that produced outsized accretion. Acquisition accretion fades, shared-loss coverage runs off, and the innovation-economy lending SVB brought is itself cyclical, tied to venture funding and startup health that swing hard with the rate and risk environment. If the post-deal tailwinds normalize, the return on equity the price assumes could prove to be a peak rather than a baseline.

The valuation already prices the better outcome. Only the growth-DCF family flags the stock as expensive, and the price assumes a return on equity of about 11.7%, above the recently-earned 10.6%. For a bank, that gap is the bet: the price needs the return to rise and hold, not merely to stay where it is. The first quarter itself showed net interest margin pressure from lower rates even as loans and deposits grew, which is the kind of squeeze that pulls return on equity down rather than up. A bank whose margin is compressing while its multiple assumes margin-supported return growth is leaning the wrong way into the rate cycle.

The capital-return strategy, impressive as it is, carries its own cyclical risk. Buying back roughly 9% of the share count in months is wonderful if the bank is genuinely undervalued and the earnings hold; it is value-destructive if the shares are being retired near a cyclical earnings peak. Aggressive buybacks also draw down capital, and a serial acquirer benefits from holding dry powder for the next distressed deal; spending it on stock at the top of the cycle reduces that optionality. Add the integration and regulatory complexity of running a much larger, more commercial balance sheet, and the bear's view is that the market is paying for peak-cycle returns to persist while management spends capital aggressively, a combination that looks far less attractive if credit normalizes or the innovation-economy lending book softens.

Valuation

First Citizens BancShares is valued off price-to-book, the right frame for a bank, and at $2,073.30 it trades at about 1.2x book. Inverting that multiple, the price assumes a sustained return on equity of roughly 11.7%, against a recently-earned figure near 10.6%, at a 10.3% cost of equity. The inversion reads that as within range, noting the assumed return is within reach of what the bank has earned and that the price-to-book sits in the lower half of the peer group.

The method families mostly support the price. The asset-based, earnings-power, and relative-multiple families all land at or above the current level; only the growth-DCF says expensive, which is the standard flag for a bank trading slightly above book. This reads as a value-and-asset-supported name rather than a growth bet, consistent with a bank whose returns are solid but not elite.

The honest read: this is a reasonably-valued, well-capitalized, acquisitive bank where the swing factor is the durability of the post-SVB return. The bull points to aggressive buybacks (roughly 9% of shares retired in months) compounding book value per share at a fair multiple; the bear points to acquisition accretion fading, net interest margin pressure from lower rates, and the cyclicality of the innovation-economy lending the bank absorbed. The cleaner way to weigh the price is against the demonstrated return on equity and how much of it is durable versus deal-driven, recognizing that the valuation already assumes the return edges up from the recently-earned level rather than slipping back.

Catalysts

The most recent catalyst was the first-quarter 2026 report, released April 23, 2026. First Citizens highlighted loan and deposit growth, resilient credit quality, and return metrics that exceeded expectations, alongside lower expenses, though net interest margin was pressured by lower rates (First Citizens 8-K, stockanalysis).

Capital return was the dominant theme. During the quarter the company returned about $900 million to shareholders through repurchases and prepaid $2.50 billion of its Purchase Money Note. From January 1 to April 21, 2026, it repurchased 518,204 shares for about $1.04 billion, bringing the total under the July 2025 buyback to roughly 1.15 million shares (about 9.23% of the company) for $2.22 billion. Management framed 2026 guidance around capital optimization, disciplined expense management, and strategic brand unification (First Citizens 8-K, Simply Wall St).

The forward catalysts are the rate path, the durability of post-SVB returns, and the pace of buybacks. The thesis turns on whether net interest margin stabilizes as rates settle, whether credit stays clean as acquisition accretion and shared-loss coverage run off, and whether management keeps retiring stock aggressively. Continued strong returns with steady credit would support the valuation; margin compression, a softening in innovation-economy lending, or rising credit costs would be the clearest near-term risks. The next quarterly print is the test (stockanalysis, First Citizens 8-K).

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

General Bank (reported)

Commercial Bank (reported)

Rail (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

View the full interactive FCNCA report on boothcheck