FTI CONSULTING, INC (FCN): what the price requires
The current priced-in claim for FTI CONSULTING, INC (FCN) is temporarily suppressed because the live engine record is unavailable. The dated report remains a snapshot, not a current market read.
Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/FCN
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | FCN |
| Company | FTI CONSULTING, INC |
| Current price | $161.36/sh |
| Composition | Corporate Finance 41% / Forensic and Litigation Consulting 20% / Economic Consulting 19% / Technology 10% / Strategic Communications 10% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 1.8% |
| Operating margin today | 10.0% |
| Margin compression implied | -8.2pp |
| Multiple paid | 14x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
The price sits below what even a 5%/yr operating-profit decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.
Solve inputs: computed at a 7% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage (computed at the 7% minimum rate; the CAPM rate 6.6% sits below it).
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~5.9%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.56σ |
| cohort percentile (of 225 peers) | 19 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.59x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.78x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.07x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 0.80x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.8%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $254.09 | 0.64x | yes | FCF base $0.3B, growth 6% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 7.8%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $201.91 | 0.80x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 12.0x / 14.0x / 16.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $150.80 | 1.07x | yes | P/E 18x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 15.1x / 18.0x / 20.9x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 12x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $95.06 | 1.70x | yes | BV/sh $54.79, ROE (TTM) 16.0%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $123.61 | 1.31x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $149.33 | 1.08x | yes | Rev $3.9B, growth 6% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.1x / 1.3x / 1.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $143.01 | 1.13x | yes | EPS $8.40, growth 17% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=1.08 (Fair) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $98.63 | 1.64x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.35B × (1−27%) / WACC 7.8% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $125.61 | 1.28x | yes | BV $54.79 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 16.0% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $101.76 | 1.59x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $8.40 × BVPS $54.79) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $134.20 | 1.20x | yes | EBITDA $0.41B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $64.58 | 2.50x | yes | FCF $256.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $48.99 | 3.29x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.21B (FCF $0.26B − SBC $0.04B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $271.04 | 0.60x | yes | EPS $8.40 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $17.62 | 9.16x | yes | BV $54.79 × (ROIC 2.5% / WACC 7.8%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $319.32 | 0.51x | yes | Revenue $3.87B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $214.51 | 0.75x | yes | EPS $8.40 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 17.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 25.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $90.81 | 1.78x | yes | EPS $8.40 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $556.0m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 2.00x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 1.46x |
| Interest coverage | 18.7x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -4.0% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
The franchise is counter-cyclical and expert-led, with demand for its restructuring, litigation, and economic-consulting practices rising when conditions worsen; Q1 2026 revenue grew 9.5% to $983.3 million, EPS rose to $1.90, and management reaffirmed full-year guidance of $8.90 to $9.60 EPS.
The catch is margin: the Economic Consulting segment posted an EBITDA loss amid demand headwinds and rising compensation, SG&A is guided materially higher, and the talent war is permanent, which is why the earnings-power family flags the stock as expensive even at a low headline multiple.
Bull Case
FTI Consulting's structural advantage is counter-cyclicality, and it is visible in the margin and return data. Its biggest practices make money when other businesses are in trouble: restructuring, litigation, forensic, and economic consulting all see demand rise precisely when markets and industries turn unfavorable. The company's own filing makes the point that these services experience their highest demand during periods when conditions are less favorable for many businesses, including periods of limited credit availability, reduced M&A activity, and declining spending (accession 0000887936-25-000014). A firm whose revenue grows when the economy hurts has a natural hedge most service companies lack, and that durability is the foundation of the bull case.
The moat is reinforced by the firm's bench of senior experts and its reputation across five practice areas (Corporate Finance, Forensic and Litigation, Economic Consulting, Technology, and Strategic Communications). Consulting of this kind is a people business, and FTI's ability to attract and retain marquee professionals is the asset; the recent hiring has focused on senior professionals in key growth geographies and services, which is the behavior of a firm investing to extend its lead rather than cutting to survive. Diversification across five practices also means a soft patch in one (currently Economic Consulting) can be offset by strength in another.
The valuation is the unusual part: this quality is on sale. At $145.38 (June 27, 2026) the price is about 13x company-wide operating income, a multiple so low the inversion notes the price sits below what even a 5% annual operating-profit decline would warrant. In other words, the market is pricing FTI as if its profits will shrink, while the business just grew first-quarter 2026 revenue 9.5% to $983.3 million and EPS 9.2% to $1.90, and management reaffirmed full-year guidance of $8.90 to $9.60 EPS on $3.9 to $4.1 billion of revenue. Corporate Finance set record profitability and Strategic Communications hit new highs. The bull wager is that a durable, counter-cyclical, expert-led franchise priced for decline is mispriced.
Bear Case
The disruption threat to FTI Consulting comes from the people business itself: its competitors are the other expert-services firms, and they recruit the same senior professionals FTI depends on. AlixPartners, Alvarez and Marsal, the big four advisory arms, and a long tail of boutiques compete for the same restructuring mandates, the same litigation experts, and the same economic-consulting stars. In a firm whose entire value is its bench, a rival poaching a marquee group can take a revenue stream and its clients with it overnight. The recent need to hire heavily into senior ranks cuts both ways: it shows investment, but it also shows that retaining and replacing top talent is a constant, costly fight, and compensation inflation in that fight directly compresses margin.
The current results show where the pressure is biting. The Economic Consulting segment posted an EBITDA loss amid demand headwinds and elevated compensation costs, and management said it requires multiple quarters of operational improvement. That is one of FTI's five practices already underperforming, and the firm warned that SG&A expenses are projected to rise materially over the year. A people business with rising compensation and an underperforming segment is exactly the setup where revenue can grow while profit stalls, which is why the earnings-power valuation family flags the stock as expensive even though the headline multiple looks low.
The cheapness, then, may be a signal rather than a gift. The market is pricing FTI below what even a 5% profit decline would warrant, and the bear's interpretation is that the market is anticipating margin erosion from compensation pressure and the lumpy, mandate-driven nature of the business. Counter-cyclical demand is a genuine strength, but it also means earnings are episodic: a wave of large restructuring or litigation mandates can lift a year, and their absence can flatten the next, so a single trailing multiple understates the volatility. Net debt near $556 million is modest with interest coverage around 15x, so leverage is not the worry; the worry is that consulting profitability is fragile, the talent war is permanent, and one underperforming segment plus rising costs can keep the multiple low for longer than the bull expects.
Valuation
FTI Consulting is priced at about 13x company-wide operating income, a low multiple for a profitable, growing services franchise. The inversion notes the multiple is so low that the price sits below what even a 5% annual operating-profit decline would warrant, which is a bound rather than a solved point: the market is effectively pricing in shrinkage.
The method families split in an informative way. The relative-multiple and growth-DCF families reach the price, while the earnings-power family says expensive. That earnings-power flag is the bear's foothold: it reflects the risk that compensation costs and an underperforming Economic Consulting segment compress margin, so that current operating profit is not fully durable. The bull leans on the peer-multiple and forward-growth frames, which credit the firm's growth and counter-cyclical demand.
The honest read: this is a high-quality, counter-cyclical consulting franchise trading at a multiple that implies decline, against fundamentals that are still growing. First-quarter 2026 revenue rose 9.5% to $983.3 million and EPS rose to $1.90, and management reaffirmed full-year guidance of $8.90 to $9.60 EPS on $3.9 to $4.1 billion of revenue. The gap between a decline-priced multiple and growing guidance is the opportunity; the catch is that consulting earnings are episodic and margin is under compensation pressure, with SG&A guided materially higher. The cleaner way to weigh the price is against the reaffirmed EPS guidance and the trajectory of the weak Economic Consulting segment, recognizing that the low multiple already embeds a pessimistic view the current results do not support.
Catalysts
The key recent catalyst was the first-quarter 2026 report (early May 2026). FTI Consulting posted revenue of $983.3 million, up 9.5% from $898.3 million a year earlier, and EPS of $1.90, up 9.2% from $1.74. Alongside the result, management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of $8.90 to $9.60 EPS on revenue of $3.9 to $4.1 billion (FTI 8-K, MarketBeat, StockTitan).
Segment performance was mixed and is the live story. Corporate Finance achieved record profitability and notable margin expansion, and Strategic Communications set new highs for revenue and EBITDA. Economic Consulting, however, posted a segment EBITDA loss amid demand headwinds and elevated compensation costs, with management saying it needs multiple quarters of operational improvement. The firm also flagged that SG&A expenses are projected to rise materially over the year, and hiring has focused on senior professionals in key growth areas (Motley Fool, Simply Wall St).
The forward catalysts are the recovery in Economic Consulting and the demand backdrop for the counter-cyclical practices. The thesis turns on whether the weak segment turns over the coming quarters and whether restructuring and litigation demand stays firm; a continued drag from Economic Consulting or compensation-driven margin compression would be the clearest near-term risks, while a return to broad-based segment growth would support the reaffirmed guidance. The next quarterly print is the test (Motley Fool, FTI 8-K).
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Corporate Finance (reported)
- HURN (HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …Future Financing Needs Our primary financing need is to fund our long-term growth. Our growth strategy is to expand our service offerings, which may require investments in new hires, acquisitions of complementary businesses, possible expansion into other geographic areas, and related capital expenditures. We believe…
- FY2025 10-K: …reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K, and any amendments to those reports filed or furnished pursuant to Section 13(a) or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 available through our website, free of charge, as soon as reasonably practicable after we electronically file such material with, or…
- CBZ (CBIZ, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …balance outstanding under the 2024 Credit Facilities at December 31, 2025 was $1,472.4 million, of which $972.4 million is subject to rate risk. If market rates were to increase or decrease 100 basis points from the levels at December 31, 2025, interest expense would increase or decrease approximately $9.7 million…
- FY2025 10-K: …of KPMG LLP 24* Powers of attorney (included on the signature page hereto). 31.1* Certification of Chief Executive Officer Pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 31.2* Certification of Chief Financial Officer Pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 32.1** Certification of Chief…
- BAH (BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HOLDING CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …by the federal tax authorities. The Company is currently under federal audit by the Internal Revenue Service ("IRS") for fiscal years 2016, 2017 and 2019-2021. The other jurisdictions currently open or under examination are not considered to be material. It is difficult to predict the ultimate outcome or the timing…
- FY2025 10-K: …as well as for commercial customers, both domestically and in select international locations. The Company is headquartered in McLean, Virginia, with approximately 35,800 employees as of March 31, 2025, and reports operating results and financial data in one reportable segment. 2. Summary of Significant Accounting…
Forensic and Litigation Consulting (reported)
- HURN (HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …certain insurance coverages for cybersecurity incidents through our professional liability insurance policy, in amounts we believe to be reasonable and at a cost that is included in our general insurance premiums, but the policy limits and the breadth of coverage may be inadequate to cover any particular claim or all…
- FY2025 10-K: …Financial Instruments" for additional information on our contingent consideration liabilities. To the extent permitted by law, our bylaws and articles of incorporation require that we indemnify our officers and directors against judgments, fines and amounts paid in settlement, including attorneys' fees, incurred in…
- CBZ (CBIZ, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …out-of-pocket expenses. The cumulative impact on any subsequent revision in the estimated realizable value of unbilled fees for a particular client project is reflected in the period in which the change becomes known. Prior to recognizing revenue for outcome-based arrangement, we estimate the transaction price,…
- FY2025 10-K: …insured directly and forwards the commission to us) are both recognized on the effective date of the policy. Commission revenue is reported net of reserves for estimated policy cancellations and terminations. The cancellation and termination reserve is based upon estimates and assumptions using historical…
- EXPO (EXPONENT, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …policies, see Note 1 of our Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. Revenue recognition. We derive our revenues primarily from professional fees earned on consulting engagements, fees earned for the use of our equipment and facilities, as well as reimbursements for outside direct expenses associated with the…
- FY2025 10-K: …our operations. Given the highly specialized nature of our services and the scale of our operations, our executive officers, group vice presidents and practice/office directors must have a thorough understanding of our services and operations, as well as the skills and experience necessary to manage a large…
Economic Consulting (reported)
- HURN (HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: ), enterprise resource planning ("ERP"), enterprise performance management ("EPM"), and customer relationship management ("CRM") systems; data management, AI and automation; technology managed services; and payor core F-39 Table of Contents HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC. NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS…
- FY2025 10-K: …and specialty consulting firms; consulting divisions of our technology partners; and the internal professional resources of organizations. We compete with a large number of service and technology providers in all of our segments. Our competitors vary, depending on the particular industry and expertise area, and we…
- EXPO (EXPONENT, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …by those clients. Clients that have the capability to perform such services themselves will retain Exponent or other independent consultants because of independence concerns. In each of our practices, we believe that the principal competitive factors are: technical capability and breadth of services, ability to…
- FY2025 10-K: …clients design safer, more reliable, and higher‑performing products. As advanced materials and electrochemical technologies have become increasingly central to modern devices, understanding how they function - and fail - is essential to ensuring product safety, durability, and competitive performance. 7 We apply…
- BAH (BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HOLDING CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …by the federal tax authorities. The Company is currently under federal audit by the Internal Revenue Service ("IRS") for fiscal years 2016, 2017 and 2019-2021. The other jurisdictions currently open or under examination are not considered to be material. It is difficult to predict the ultimate outcome or the timing…
- FY2025 10-K: …new relationships, customers, capabilities, and service offerings in our U.S. and international businesses; • risks related to changes to our operating structure, capabilities, or strategy intended to address customer needs, grow our business, or respond to market developments; • the adoption by the U.S. government…
- IT (Gartner, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …December 31, 2025 was primarily due to an increase of 15% in exhibitor revenue compared to the same period in 2024. The segment gross contribution margin was 50% and 48% in 2025 and 2024, respectively. The higher gross contribution margin during 2025 was primarily the result of the increase in revenue, partially…
- FY2025 10-K: …in-person conferences. Single day, local meetings are excluded. Consulting Consulting backlog represents future revenue to be derived from in-process consulting and benchmark analytics engagements. Utilization rate represents a measure of productivity of our consultants. Utilization rates are calculated for billable…
- G (GENPACT LIMITED)
- FY2025 10-K: …a disproportionate impact on our results of operations in the relevant geographic market, service or industry vertical. In addition, any deterioration in economic activity in North America or Europe, or in industries in which our clients operate, could adversely affect demand for our services, thus reducing our…
- FY2025 10-K: …solutions depends on our ability to attract existing or new clients to new service offerings, and the market for our solutions is highly competitive. We cannot be certain that our new services or solutions will effectively meet client needs or that we will be able to attract clients to these offerings. The complexity…
Technology (reported)
- EXLS (EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …at sufficient speed and scale and successfully drive innovation, our ability to develop and maintain a competitive advantage, our growth strategy and our results of operations could be adversely affected. Technological developments may materially affect the cost and use of technology by our clients and, in the case…
- FY2025 10-K: …Our growth strategy focuses on responding to these types of developments by driving innovation that will enable us to expand our business into new growth areas. The use of AI technology presents competitive, reputational and legal risks, and our use of AI technology may not be successful. AI technologies, including…
- G (GENPACT LIMITED)
- FY2025 10-K: …technology ("IT") support services for legacy applications, including end-user computing support and infrastructure production support. We introduced the Advanced Technology Solutions and Core Business Services revenue disaggregation in the quarter that began on April 1, 2025. Prior to that, we disaggregated our…
- FY2025 10-K: 1A. Risk Factors Risks Related to our Business and Operations AI and other advanced technologies are having, and are expected to continue to have, a significant impact on our industry and the markets in which we compete. The development and use of AI and other advanced technologies present competitive, reputational…
- DFIN (Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …communications, as well as iXBRL-formatted filings pursuant to the Investment Company Act, through the SEC's EDGAR system. The IC-CCM segment also provides turnkey proxy services, including discovery, planning and implementation, print and mail management, solicitation, tabulation services, stockholder meeting review…
- FY2025 10-K: …alternative providers. The Company expects competition to increase from existing competitors as well as new and emerging market entrants. In addition, as the Company expands its services and product offerings, it may face competition from new and existing competitors, including those offering AI-enabled or…
- CTSH (COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …and insurance companies. Demand in this segment is driven by our clients' need to modernize legacy technology environments, strengthen operational resilience and adopt cloud, data and AI capabilities to meet evolving customer expectations and regulatory requirements. Our clients are expanding enterprise AI adoption…
- FY2025 10-K: …on our industry, and we believe our ability to compete in this space will be critical to our financial performance. We increasingly use AI-based technologies, including GenAI, in our client offerings and our own internal operations. We have incurred and plan to continue to incur significant development and Cognizant…
Strategic Communications (reported)
- OMC (OMNICOM GROUP INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …crisis communications multi-cultural marketing customer data analytics and data-driven decision making organizational communications customer relationship management package design decision sciences performance marketing digital experience design product placement digital transformation promotional marketing…
- FY2025 10-K: …for our services. Revenue is typically lower in the first and third quarters and higher in the second and fourth quarters, reflecting client spending patterns during the year, as well as additional project work that usually occurs in the fourth quarter. Certain global events targeted by major marketers for…
- WPP (WPP plc)
- FY2025 20-F: …in the period in which they are incurred. REVENUE RECOGNITION The Group offers national and multinational clients a comprehensive range of communications, experience, commerce and technology services. Certain contracts involve multiple agencies offering different services in different countries. As such, the terms of…
- FY2025 20-F: …and accuracy of underlying data used in the discounted cash flow models; (iv) evaluating the reasonableness of the significant assumptions used by management related to forecast revenue less pass-through costs growth rates and operating margins, long-term growth rates and post-tax discount rates; (v) comparing the…
- STGW (Stagwell Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …segment delivers integrated AI-based data solutions that drive audience engagement and business growth through media buying, owned media platforms, commerce enablement, and Customer Relationship Management ("CRM") strategies. Its capabilities include planning and executing media campaigns across global platforms,…
- FY2025 10-K: …Assembly Global, commerce and CRM agency Gale. • The Communications segment provides a leading edge set of solutions designed to help organizations build, protect, and enhance their reputation across diverse audiences and channels. Its capabilities include strategic communications, public relations, and advocacy…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.