FB Financial Corp (FBK): what the price requires

At today's price, FB Financial Corp (FBK) is priced for 14.2% return on equity. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/FBK

Headline

FieldValue
TickerFBK
CompanyFB Financial Corp
Current price$59.94/sh
CompositionBanking 89% / Mortgage 11%

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basisfinancials
Price-to-book1.56x
Return on equity now6.3%

The implied return on book is non-physical at this price-to-book and is suppressed as misleading. The price sits beyond a 12.4% return on equity sustained for 40 years and is not resolvable as a sustainable-ROE point. The rarity read below is the honest signal.

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.5% cost of equity; ROE searched up to the 12.4% ROE ceiling.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~12.2%; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: extreme

ReferenceValue
vs own history+1.27σ
cohort percentile (of 119 peers)67
sustained it ~10 years at this level63%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset2.06x3expensive
Earnings1.37x2expensive
Relative1.26x3expensive
Growth1.19x1expensive

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 5.3%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=9)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth——no—
Bank Fair Value (P/TBV)—$15.723.81xyesTBVPS $30.54 × 0.51x (ROE (TTM) 7.1% / CoE 9.3%, g=4.6% (sustainable: 65% retention × ROE, 5% cap; not the terminal-growth assumption), credit 1.51% allowance/loans → ×0.96, NPL 0.75% → ×0.99)
Relative ValuationRelative$44.291.35xyesP/E 13.67x (blended: static sector reference 10x + trailing (TTM) 22x), scenarios: 10.9x / 13.7x / 16.4x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA N/Ax
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$29.162.06xyesBV/sh $37.81, ROE (TTM) 7.1%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$25.432.36xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$50.491.19xyesRev $0.6B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 4.5x / 5.6x / 6.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$47.461.26xyesEPS $2.71, growth 18% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=1.27 (Fair)
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings——no—
Residual IncomeAsset——no—
Graham NumberAsset$48.021.25xyes√(22.5 × EPS $2.71 × BVPS $37.81) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative——no—
FCF YieldEarnings——no—
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings——no—
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$87.440.69xyesEPS $2.71 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset——no—
P/Sales SectorRelative——no—
PEG Fair ValueRelative$71.190.84xyesEPS $2.71 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 17.5% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 26.3x
Earnings YieldEarnings$29.302.05xyesEPS $2.71 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Share count CAGR (dilution)2.3%

Deposit/float-funded balance sheet: debt is funding, not corporate leverage, and GAAP operating cash flow follows loan flows. Net-debt, interest-coverage, and cash-burn lenses do not apply. The solvency frame for a financial is regulatory capital and payout capacity (CET1, stress buffer, dividends plus buybacks against earnings).

Bullet Takeaways

FB Financial is valued off price-to-book, trading at about 1.4x book at $53.79, which prices a return on equity toward the elite tier; the reverse-DCF band of about $23 to $50 places the price just above the top, a modest premium to fundamentals.

Q1 2026 was strong: net income of $57.5 million ($1.10 diluted EPS), net interest margin of 3.94%, and loans up to $12.50 billion from $9.77 billion a year earlier (about 28% growth); the earnings-power, relative-multiple, and growth-DCF families support the price while only the asset frame says expensive.

The risk is qualitative and cyclical: the implied return on equity runs above what the bank has recently earned, a large slice of the loan book is newly originated and unseasoned, and the margin was modestly pressured by rate cuts, so a credit or rate turn would pull the valuation toward book.

Bull Case

The single most decisive number for FB Financial is its return on equity, because a bank is worth the return it earns on its capital, and that one figure, if it changed, would flip the whole verdict. At $53.79 (June 27, 2026) the market is paying about 1.4x book, which prices a sustained return on equity at the high end of what regional banks achieve. The bull case is that FB Financial's recent earnings trajectory points the ROE in the right direction, and that the price-to-book premium is the market correctly anticipating a higher, more durable return as the balance sheet scales.

The recent quarter supports that read. First-quarter 2026 net income was $57.5 million, or $1.10 per diluted share, on $146.8 million of net interest income and a net interest margin of 3.94%, which is a solid margin for a regional bank in a rate-cut environment. The growth underneath is real: loans held for investment reached $12.50 billion, up from $9.77 billion a year earlier, and deposits grew to $14.08 billion from $11.20 billion. That is roughly 28% loan growth and 26% deposit growth year over year, the signature of a bank gaining share or integrating an acquisition, and it is the engine that lifts ROE if the new assets earn well.

The valuation frame agrees the bet is reasonable. The earnings-power, relative-multiple, and growth-DCF families all support the price; only the asset-based family says expensive, which is the expected complaint about a bank trading above book. With a healthy net interest margin, strong balance-sheet growth, and stable credit, the case is that FB Financial earns its way into the multiple rather than having to grow into a stretched one.

Bear Case

The honest worry about FB Financial is qualitative before it is numerical: the price is paying for a level of through-cycle profitability that the bank has not consistently demonstrated. A regional bank trading at a premium to book is making a promise about sustained returns on capital, and the gap between that promise and the bank's actual recent earnings on equity is the crux of the bear case. Rapid balance-sheet growth, with loans up from $9.77 billion to $12.50 billion in a year, flatters near-term earnings, but it also means a large slice of the loan book is newly originated and unseasoned. Credit quality looks fine today, as it usually does early in a loan's life; the test comes when those loans age into a less benign environment.

The price-to-fundamentals disconnect shows up in the valuation families. Only the asset-based family flags the stock as expensive, and for a bank the asset frame (price relative to book and to demonstrated return on equity) is not a frame to wave away, because book value is the capital that actually generates the returns. The price embeds a return on equity searched up toward the elite 12.5% tier, while the bank has more recently been earning well below that. The other families reach the price only by crediting the forward growth case; if that growth decelerates or the new loans earn less than underwritten, the asset frame is the one that proves right.

The cyclical and rate exposures complete the picture. Net interest margin was 3.94% but management noted it was modestly pressured by benchmark rate cuts and balance-sheet growth, so further cuts or deposit-cost competition could compress it. A bank's earnings are also a leveraged function of credit costs: a single bad credit cycle can erase several quarters of net income, and the rapid asset growth means there is simply more loan book exposed to that risk. At a 1.4x book multiple, the stock is priced for the benign case to continue; the bear's view is that paying above book for an unseasoned, fast-growing loan book in an uncertain rate environment is paying full price for an outcome that has not yet been proven across a cycle.

Valuation

FB Financial is valued the way a bank should be, off price-to-book rather than an operating multiple, because a bank is worth the return it earns on its capital. At $53.79 the stock trades at about 1.4x book, which prices in a return on equity searched up toward the elite 12.5% tier sustained over time. The inversion reads that as within range against the bank's own record and notes the price-to-book sits in the upper half of the peer group.

The method families line up with that read. The earnings-power, relative-multiple, and growth-DCF families support the price; only the asset-based family says expensive. For a bank trading above book that ordering is expected, but it is not a free pass: the asset frame is the one that keeps the others honest, because the book value is the capital that generates the returns the other frames are projecting forward.

The honest read: this is a reasonably-valued growth-oriented regional bank where the premium to book is the market crediting recent momentum, expanding net interest margin (3.94% in the first quarter), and strong loan and deposit growth. The case works if the rapidly grown balance sheet earns the underwritten return and credit stays clean. The risk is that the implied ROE runs above what the bank has recently delivered, so a deceleration in growth, margin compression from further rate cuts, or normalization in credit costs would pull the valuation back toward the asset frame. The cleaner way to weigh it is against demonstrated return on equity and the seasoning of the new loan book, not the latest quarter's reported earnings alone.

Catalysts

The most recent catalyst was the first-quarter 2026 report. FB Financial posted net income of $57.5 million, or $1.10 per diluted share, with adjusted net income of $58.3 million ($1.12). Net interest income was $146.8 million and the net interest margin was 3.94%, which management described as modestly pressured by benchmark rate cuts and balance-sheet growth but solid for a regional bank (StockTitan).

Balance-sheet growth was the standout. Loans held for investment reached $12.50 billion, up from $9.77 billion a year earlier, and deposits grew to $14.08 billion from $11.20 billion, with management highlighting credit quality and capital strength. That pace of loan and deposit growth is the engine behind the bank's earnings trajectory and the premium-to-book valuation (StockTitan, stockanalysis).

The forward catalysts are the next earnings release, expected around July 13, 2026, with a consensus EPS estimate near $1.16, and the rate path. The questions to watch are whether net interest margin holds as the Federal Reserve adjusts rates, whether the rapidly grown loan book continues to perform on credit, and whether deposit costs stay contained. A margin hold with clean credit would validate the premium valuation; margin compression or rising charge-offs would be the clearest near-term risks (StockTitan, MarketBeat).

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Banking (reported)

Mortgage (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

View the full interactive FBK report on boothcheck