EverCommerce Inc. (EVCM): what the price requires

Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/EVCM

Headline

Field	Value
Ticker	EVCM
Company	EverCommerce Inc.
Current price	$10.66/sh
Composition	Subscription and transaction fees 96% / Other 4%

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Field	Value
Inversion basis	whole-company
Operating margin needed	5.7%
Operating margin today	10.0%
Margin compression implied	-4.3pp
Must persist for	7.9y
Multiple paid	39x operating income

The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 11, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.2% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2 years.

How unusual the bet is: elevated

Reference	Value
cohort percentile (of 178 peers)	70
sustained it ~7.9 years at this level	20%
implied end-window share	0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Family	Median price/FV	Models	Reads
Asset	8.26x	5	expensive
Earnings	2.75x	3	expensive
Relative	0.84x	2	justifies
Growth	—	0	—

Families that justify the price: Relative Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=10)

Model	Family	FV	Price/FV	Applicable	Methodology
DCF Perpetual Growth	Growth	$3.60	2.96x	no	FCF base $0.1B, growth -10% (input: historical growth), terminal g 0.5%, WACC 7.5%, 5yr projection
DCF Exit Multiple	Growth	$9.81	1.09x	no	Exit EV/EBITDA: 17.0x / 19.0x / 21.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr
Relative Valuation	Relative	$11.20	0.95x	yes	P/E 42.26x (blended: static sector reference 35x + trailing (TTM) 59x), scenarios: 35.7x / 42.3x / 48.8x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 25x
Simple DDM	Growth	—	—	no	—
Two-Stage DDM	Growth	—	—	no	—
Simple Excess Return	Asset	$1.95	5.47x	yes	BV/sh $3.96, ROE (TTM) 4.5%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess Return	Asset	$1.29	8.26x	yes	5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market Cap	Growth	$4.78	2.23x	no	Rev $0.6B, growth -11% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.7x / 3.2x / 3.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Peter Lynch Fair Value	Relative	$2.16	4.94x	no	EPS $0.18, growth 2% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=29.61 (Overvalued)
Margin Trajectory	Growth	—	—	no	—
Earnings Power Value	Earnings	$0.01	1066.00x	no	Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.01B × (1−8%) / WACC 7.5% → EPV (no growth)
Residual Income	Asset	$1.15	9.27x	yes	BV $3.96 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 4.5% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 3.0%/yr
Graham Number	Asset	$4.00	2.67x	yes	√(22.5 × EPS $0.18 × BVPS $3.96) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA Relative	Relative	$14.79	0.72x	yes	EBITDA $0.12B × sector EV/EBITDA 25.0x
FCF Yield	Earnings	$3.88	2.75x	yes	FCF $102.8M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF Yield	Earnings	$2.24	4.76x	yes	SBC-adj FCF $0.08B (FCF $0.10B − SBC $0.03B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham Formula	Earnings	$5.81	1.83x	yes	EPS $0.18 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/B	Asset	$0.54	19.74x	yes	BV $3.96 × (ROIC 1.0% / WACC 7.5%)
P/Sales Sector	Relative	$26.34	0.40x	no	Revenue $0.59B × sector P/S 8.0x
PEG Fair Value	Relative	$6.75	1.58x	no	EPS $0.18 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x
Earnings Yield	Earnings	$1.95	5.47x	no	EPS $0.18 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations Multiple	Relative	—	—	no	—
Clinical Phase NPV	Growth	—	—	no	—
Merton	Asset	—	—	no	—
V5 Mechanical	—	—	—	no	—

Solvency

Field	Value
Net debt	$392.9m
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)	7.30x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)	6.71x
Interest coverage	1.7x
Share count CAGR (buyback)	-2.0%
Burning cash	no

Bullet Takeaways

• EverCommerce sells vertical software and payments to service-based small businesses, addressing markets it sizes at "a $69 billion opportunity in Home Services, a $115 billion opportunity in Health Services, a $22 billion opportunity in Wellness Services", so the runway is large relative to its roughly $0.6 billion of revenue.
• The biggest specific risk is the balance sheet against slow growth: net debt near $393 million is close to seven times operating income, with interest coverage around 1.7 times, on a business growing revenue in the low single digits.
• What moves the stock next is whether the modest reacceleration and margin discipline hold: first-quarter 2026 revenue grew 3.6% to $147.5 million at a 27.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, and full-year revenue guidance held at $612 to $632 million.

Bull Case

The cleanest way into EverCommerce is to see where the price lands against the methods, because they split in a revealing way. The relative-multiple and forward-growth families both reach the price, while the asset-based and earnings-power methods read it as expensive. For a small vertical software roll-up, that split is the signal: the asset and earnings methods are anchored on a low trailing return on equity and a thin operating margin, both of which understate a business whose value is in recurring software relationships, not in book assets. What peer multiples and a forward cash-flow view see is a company converting revenue into real free cash flow, roughly $100 million of it on $0.6 billion of sales.

The opportunity is genuinely large relative to the company's size. EverCommerce serves service businesses across home, health, and wellness verticals, and its own filing sizes the addressable markets at "a $69 billion opportunity in Home Services, a $115 billion opportunity in Health Services, a $22 billion opportunity in Wellness Services and a $456 billion opportunity in other services categories". The pitch against incumbents is integration: legacy tools are "Sold as point solutions" that "typically address a single application, use case or stage of a broader customer engagement workflow", while EverCommerce bundles software with embedded payments so a single relationship deepens over time. The first quarter showed that engine working at a steady pace, with revenue up 3.6% to $147.5 million, adjusted EBITDA of $40.7 million at a 27.6% margin, and net income of $7.2 million.

Capital discipline is the quiet part of the bull case. The company repurchased and retired about 1.3 million shares for roughly $13.9 million in the quarter, and the share count has fallen about 2% a year, so the free cash flow is being returned rather than spent chasing growth at any cost. Management completed product integrations such as native AI tooling ahead of schedule, the kind of cross-sell groundwork that lifts revenue per customer without a proportional rise in cost. A profitable, cash-generative software business buying back its own stock in the low-priced single digits does not need rapid growth to compound per-share value; it needs to keep converting and keep retiring shares.

Bear Case

The disruption risk is structural and the filing does not hide it. EverCommerce competes in a market where, in its own words, "the barriers to entry into our industry" are low, and larger rivals can devote more resources to "sale of their offerings than we can to ours, which could allow them to respond more quickly than we can to new technologies and changes in customer needs and achieve wider market acceptance". A roll-up of vertical point solutions is exposed on two fronts at once: the incumbents it displaces and the better-funded platforms that can build or buy the same integrated offering. The competitive pressure shows up in the growth rate, which has settled into the low single digits, a long way from the pace a stock priced for a multi-year compounding story needs.

The leverage is what turns slow growth into a real problem. Net debt sits near $393 million, close to seven times operating income, with interest coverage around 1.7 times, which is tight. The debt is floating-rate: the filing describes a term loan bearing interest at "Term SOFR (as defined in the Credit Agreement) plus an applicable margin of 2.25%", so a higher-for-longer rate environment feeds straight into the interest bill that already consumes most of operating income. A 1.7-times coverage ratio leaves little margin for a soft quarter; if revenue stalls or churn ticks up, the debt service does not flex, and the equity absorbs the difference.

The valuation asks for more than the business has shown. At roughly 34 times company-wide operating income, the price implies operating growth held near its self-funding ceiling for about seven years, and only about 25% of comparable fast-growers have sustained that kind of pace for even six to seven years. EverCommerce also depends heavily on equity compensation to keep talent, with the filing noting that "employees may be more likely to leave us if a significant portion of their equity compensation is fully vested" amid "intense competition for qualified individuals". The bear case is not that the company breaks; it is that a low-growth, levered roll-up is priced as if it will compound for years, and the methods that look at what it actually earns disagree.

Valuation

What the price embeds is a long runway of compounding that the company has not recently demonstrated. At about 34 times company-wide operating income, the implied path is operating growth held near its self-funding ceiling for roughly seven years. The rarity reference is the caution: only about a quarter of comparable fast-growers sustained that pace for even six to seven years, and EverCommerce is currently growing revenue in the low single digits, not at a ceiling pace.

The methods divide along a familiar fault line for a small software roll-up. The relative-multiple and forward-growth families reach the price; the asset-based and earnings-power families, anchored on a low trailing return on equity and a thin operating margin, read it as expensive. The right way to weigh that split is to recognize what each method can and cannot see: the asset and earnings lenses understate a recurring-revenue software business, but they are also flagging that today's earnings are modest and the leverage is real. The peer cohort, which includes Paylocity, Q2 Holdings, and SPS Commerce, trades at software multiples that the relative method extends to EverCommerce, which is what lets that family defend the price. The disagreement is the information: this is a stock the growth and peer lenses can justify only if the compounding continues, and the value lenses cannot justify at all on what it earns today.

Solvency is the binding constraint and belongs at the center of the downside. Net debt near $393 million at close to seven times operating income, with interest coverage around 1.7 times on floating-rate debt, is the structure a buyer underwrites. The company is not burning cash and generates real free cash flow, which is what services the debt and funds the buyback, but there is almost no cushion: a stall in revenue or a rise in rates compresses coverage quickly. The price reflects a leveraged bet on continued conversion of a large addressable market, carried by a balance sheet with little room to absorb a miss.

Catalysts

The first quarter of 2026 was a steady, in-line print rather than an inflection. EverCommerce reported total revenue of $147.5 million, up 3.6% year over year and above the midpoint of guidance, with adjusted EBITDA of $40.7 million at a 27.6% margin, also ahead of the midpoint, and net income of $7.2 million. The company repurchased and retired about 1.3 million shares for roughly $13.9 million in the quarter, continuing the capital-return discipline that defines the equity story.

Guidance held the line. For the second quarter, management guided revenue of $150.5 million to $153.5 million with adjusted EBITDA of $41 million to $43 million, and it kept full-year revenue guidance at $612 million to $632 million with adjusted EBITDA of $183 million to $191 million. On the product side, native platform and AI integrations were completed ahead of schedule, the kind of cross-sell groundwork that supports revenue per customer. The Street sits at a Hold consensus with an average target near $10.92, above the current price. The catalysts that matter from here are whether revenue growth can step up from the low single digits and whether margin gains can keep lifting the cash flow that services the debt; both feed directly into the leverage math that is the heart of the bear case.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

EverCommerce (consolidated vertical SaaS) (reported)

• TYL (TYLER TECHNOLOGIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: ES $ 534,864 $ 572,224 PT 416,998 416,635 Corporate 4,687,046 4,191,156 Total consolidated $ 5,638,908 $ 5,180,015 Segment assets primarily consist of net accounts receivable, prepaid expenses and other current assets, and net property and equipment and software development costs, net. Corporate assets primarily…
• FY2025 10-K: …for initial periods of one to three years . Nearly all of our on-premises software clients contract with us for maintenance and support. Maintenance and support are generally provided under auto-renewing annual contracts or multi-year contracts. We consider all other revenue categories to be non-recurring revenues.…
• BLKB (Blackbaud, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …extent contracts include embedded annual price escalators, the total fees attributable to the subscription-based software solutions are recognized on a straight-line basis over the term of the arrangement, resulting in a more even pattern of revenue recognition over longer periods. Accordingly, period‑over‑period…
• FY2025 10-K: …the full spectrum of our current solutions and our ability to deliver future solutions make us a strong competitor. We expect to continue to see new entrants as focus on social investment solutions increases to satisfy Millennial and Gen Z donors, customers and employees, the barriers of entry continue to decline…
• SPSC (SPS COMMERCE, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …for selective acquisitions. We plan to continue to evaluate potential acquisitions based on the number of new customers, revenue, functionality, or geographic reach the acquisition would provide relative to the purchase price, and our ability to integrate and operate the acquired business. In 2025, we acquired…
• FY2025 10-K: …orders, shipments, and inventory gained by automating trading relationships on the SPS Commerce supply chain network is critical to their success and offers a competitive advantage. • Consumers want new products - Retail assortments are ever-changing with seasonality shifts and new product introductions from…
• MANH (MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Omnichannel Commerce and Digital Supply Chain solutions to drive revenue and earnings growth. In addition for 2025, we repurchased $274.5 million of Manhattan Associates' outstanding common stock under the share repurchase program approved by our Board of Directors. In January 2026, our Board of Directors replenished…
• FY2025 10-K: …on Microsoft's Azure platform. Through this platform, Manhattan Active SCALE customers receive new capability on an annual basis and enjoy full configurability and elements of technical extensibility even when delivered on Azure. We continue to offer SCALE on premise via perpetual licenses. Omnichannel Solutions As…
• VERX (Vertex, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …grow and scale our enterprise and mid-market revenues. Our partner ecosystem is a differentiating, competitive strength in both our software development and our sales and marketing activities. We integrate with key technology partners that span ERP, CRM, procurement, billing, POS, and eCommerce. These partners…
• FY2025 10-K: …to product taxability or configuration, and natural-language driven tools that simplify the creation and management of tax rules. Together, these capabilities are designed to reduce manual effort, improve consistency, and help customers maintain compliance in an environment of constantly changing regulations. ​ In…
• ACIW (ACI WORLDWIDE, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …The conclusions reached can impact the allocation of the transaction price to each performance obligation and the timing of revenue recognition related to those arrangements. Software as a Service ("SaaS") and Platform as a Service ("PaaS") Arrangements. The Company's SaaS-based and PaaS-based arrangements, including…
• FY2025 10-K: …2024. • Adjusted for the impact of foreign currency, total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, increased $156.6 million, or 10%, as compared to the same period in 2024. 33 Table of Contents Software as a Service ("SaaS") and Platform as a Service ("PaaS") Revenue The Company's SaaS arrangements allow…
• PCTY (PAYLOCITY HOLDING CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …methods including on-demand and webinars, all of which are available via our mobile app. Our clients can create a variety of content for their employees including via a Sharable Content Object Reference Model (SCORM), embedded video and various document types. Custom content is supplemented by a library of hundreds…
• FY2025 10-K: …product suite that helps businesses streamline and automate HR, payroll and spend management processes, attract and retain talent, and build culture and connection with their employees. We are expanding the spend management capabilities of our platform beyond expense management to include accounts payable automation,…
• PAYC (Paycom Software, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …HCM solution delivered as Software-as-a-Service. Our payroll application is the foundation of our solution and is based on a core system of record to maintain a single database for all HCM functions. The Company derives revenue primarily in North America and manages the business activities on a consolidated basis. No…
• FY2025 10-K: …assistance from trained specialists. Service specialists are assigned to specific clients and are trained across all of our applications, ensuring they provide comprehensive, expert-level service. Our Quality Management System is ISO 9001:2015 certified on the basis of its quality and consistency. We strive to…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

Q1 2026 results, 2026 · analyst consensus, 2026