Excelerate Energy, Inc (EE): what the price requires
The current priced-in claim for Excelerate Energy, Inc (EE) is temporarily suppressed because the live engine record is unavailable. The dated report remains a snapshot, not a current market read.
Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/EE
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | EE |
| Company | Excelerate Energy, Inc |
| Current price | $39.36/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin today | 20.7% |
| Multiple paid | 7x operating income |
The price sits below what even a 5%/yr operating-profit decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.
Solve inputs: computed at a 6.9% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -1.88σ |
| cohort percentile (of 72 peers) | 3 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value, while asset-based lands below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 2.99x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 0.51x | 4 | justifies |
| Relative | 0.39x | 3 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.27x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Earnings, Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.9%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=15)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $787.20 | 0.05x | yes | FCF base $0.4B, growth 25% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 6.9%, 7yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $146.50 | 0.27x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 4.0x / 4.6x / 7.6x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $67.72 | 0.58x | yes | P/E 23.71x (blended: static sector reference 20x + trailing (TTM) 32x), scenarios: 19.0x / 23.7x / 28.5x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 9.66x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $13.15 | 2.99x | yes | BV/sh $20.95, ROE (TTM) 5.8%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $10.09 | 3.90x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $57.11 | 0.69x | yes | Rev $1.3B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 0.8x / 1.0x / 1.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $63.10 | 0.62x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.22B × (1−16%) / WACC 6.9% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $9.70 | 4.06x | yes | BV $20.95 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 5.8% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 3.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $23.69 | 1.66x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $1.19 × BVPS $20.95) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $141.68 | 0.28x | yes | EBITDA $0.40B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $102.70 | 0.38x | yes | FCF $366.4M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $98.39 | 0.40x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.35B (FCF $0.37B − SBC $0.01B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $1.00 | 39.36x | yes | EPS $1.19 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $16.50 | 2.39x | yes | BV $20.95 × (ROIC 5.4% / WACC 6.9%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $102.07 | 0.39x | yes | Revenue $1.35B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $12.86 | 3.06x | yes | EPS $1.19 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $555.8m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 2.38x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 2.00x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -26.6% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
At $34.56 Excelerate trades at about 7x company-wide operating income, a multiple so low the inversion reads it as below what even a 5% annual profit decline would warrant, yet first-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose to $122.2 million and revenue of $433.4 million beat consensus by over 20%.
The growth is contracted: 15-year LNG sale-and-purchase agreements with QatarEnergy and Petrobangla began delivering into Bangladesh in January 2026, the FSRU Excelerate Acadia deployed to Jordan, and the May 2025 Jamaica acquisition added gas-and-power margin, with management guiding 2026 adjusted EBITDA to $480 million to $510 million.
The risks are capital allocation and execution: the company is retaining nearly all cash flow for a large committed-growth-capital program (the dividend is a token $0.32 a year), it cut 2026 guidance on the delayed Iraq terminal, it operates under a controlled-company structure, and trailing return on equity of about 5.8% sits below the cost of equity, so asset-based models mark the stock near $10 to $17.
Bull Case
The market seems to be pricing Excelerate as a slow, asset-heavy utility, and the fundamentals are quietly telling a different story. At $34.56 the stock trades at roughly 7x company-wide operating income, a multiple so low the inversion reads it as below what even a modest annual decline in operating profit would warrant. That is what the market is paying in. What the business is actually doing is growing: first-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA reached $122.2 million, up both sequentially and year over year, and revenue of $433.4 million blew past the roughly $352 million consensus. The gap between a price set for stagnation and results that are accelerating is the heart of the bull case.
The growth has real contractual underpinning, not just spot opportunism. Excelerate operates floating storage and regasification units, the fastest way for a country to import LNG, and it locks them into long-term charters. The 10-K lays out the status of its floating regasification terminal contract terms and frames the fleet as a competitive strength (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-078407). In January 2026 it began LNG cargo deliveries into Bangladesh under 15-year sale-and-purchase agreements with QatarEnergy and Petrobangla, and it deployed the FSRU Excelerate Acadia to Jordan under a time-charter with the national power company. The May 2025 acquisition of New Fortress Energy's Jamaica business (the Montego Bay and Old Harbour terminals and the Clarendon power plant) added downstream gas-and-power margin and was the main driver of the EBITDA step-up.
The balance sheet and capital plan support a multi-year ramp. Net debt sits near $556 million against trailing operating income of about $283 million, a manageable roughly 2x, and the company holds over $540 million in liquid assets. Management laid out a sequenced path to earnings growth through 2028, including FSRU redeployments and conversion projects, and signed a letter of intent with Seatrium Shipyard for a vessel conversion. The earnings-power and relative frames support the current price (earnings power value near $65, relative P/E near $64), while the asset frame calls it expensive. For a contracted-infrastructure business adding 15-year offtake and a producing Caribbean platform, the value case is that the contracted cash flows are worth more than a 7x operating multiple implies.
Bear Case
The governance and capital-allocation picture is where a careful holder should focus, because Excelerate is spending heavily and is controlled by interests whose priorities may not align with minority shareholders. The company is in the middle of a large committed-growth-capital program, guided in the hundreds of millions for 2026 alone (committed growth capital around $270 million to $300 million after a revision, on top of $100 million to $110 million of maintenance capex). That is a business plowing nearly all of its cash flow back into new vessels and conversions rather than returning it; the dividend is a token $0.08 per quarter ($0.32 annualized), well under 1% at the current price. When a company retains this much capital, the question is execution, and a single delayed project can swing the outcome.
The Iraq delay shows exactly that fragility. Excelerate cut its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $480 million to $510 million from an earlier $515 million to $545 million, driven by the delayed startup of its integrated Iraq LNG import terminal, only partly offset by the interim Jordan deployment. Large infrastructure projects in challenging jurisdictions slip, and each slip pushes out the cash flows the growth capital was meant to produce. The committed-growth-capital guidance itself was revised down, which is a sign the project pipeline is moving around rather than landing on schedule.
The structural concerns compound. Excelerate carries a controlled-company ownership structure tied to its founding interests, which concentrates voting power and limits minority influence over capital allocation and related-party decisions. The share-count history is volatile (reflecting the up-C corporate structure and class conversions), which complicates per-share analysis. And the asset-based valuation frames are blunt: the simple and two-stage excess-return models mark the stock near $10 to $13 and residual income near $10, all far below the $34.56 price, because trailing return on equity of about 5.8% sits below the cost of equity. The business earns below its cost of capital on its book base today; the entire bull case rests on the growth capital eventually changing that. If the projects slip or the contracts underdeliver, the asset frames, not the optimistic ones, are the honest read.
Valuation
Excelerate's models split sharply, and the split is the analysis. The earnings-power and relative-multiple frames support the current price: earnings power value near $65, relative P/E near $64, and the discounted-future-market-cap frame near $50. The growth-DCF frames mark even higher but are unreliable here (the perpetual-growth DCF marks an implausible $691 off a 25% growth input, which should be discounted heavily). The asset-based frames, by contrast, mark far below: simple excess return near $13, two-stage excess return near $10, residual income near $10, and the ROIC-justified book model near $17. The price is supported by earnings power and peers while the asset frame says expensive, which the engine reads as a value or asset-supported name rather than a pure growth bet.
The reason the asset frames lag is that trailing return on equity is only about 5.8%, below the roughly 9.3% cost of equity, so on its current book base the company is not yet earning its capital cost. The bull case is that the committed growth capital changes that; the bear case is that it might not, or not on schedule.
Inverting the price gives the cleanest single read. At $34.56 the market pays about 7x company-wide operating income, a multiple so low the price sits below what even a 5% annual operating-profit decline would warrant. Read as a bound, not a forecast: the market is pricing in deterioration, not growth. Given that the company is guiding 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $480 million to $510 million against trailing operating income near $283 million, the contracted growth trajectory is well ahead of what the price assumes. The fair-value frame the engine produces equals the current price on a below-floor solve, which simply means the market is paying for almost no growth. The honest read: this is a contracted-infrastructure business priced cheaply on current earnings, where the upside depends on the heavy growth-capital program landing and the downside is protected by long-term charters but exposed to project slippage.
Catalysts
The most recent print was the first-quarter 2026 report. Adjusted EBITDA was $122.2 million, up sequentially and year over year, and revenue of $433.4 million beat the roughly $352 million consensus, driven mainly by the Jamaica acquisition and stronger LNG, gas, and power margins. Alongside the strong quarter, the company cut full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $480 million to $510 million from an earlier $515 million to $545 million, citing the delayed startup of its integrated Iraq LNG import terminal, partly offset by the interim Jordan deployment of the FSRU Excelerate Acadia.
Several contracted milestones are concrete catalysts. LNG cargo deliveries into Bangladesh began in January 2026 under 15-year agreements with QatarEnergy and Petrobangla. The Jamaica platform (Montego Bay and Old Harbour terminals, Clarendon power plant) is ramping commercially. A letter of intent with Seatrium Shipyard for a vessel conversion was signed, with final contracts pending, part of a sequenced earnings-growth path management outlined through 2028.
The forward thesis tracks project execution and contract conversion. The supportive drivers are the long-term Bangladesh offtake, the Jamaica downstream margin, and FSRU redeployments. The risks are the timing of large projects, with the Iraq delay the clearest example, and the heavy committed-growth-capital program that must convert into the guided EBITDA. Watch the cadence of the Iraq terminal startup, the Seatrium conversion contract, quarterly adjusted EBITDA against the revised guidance, and any further changes to growth-capital guidance, since project timing is what will determine whether the cheap current multiple re-rates.
Sources: Excelerate Energy Q1 2026 results and 8-K (excelerateenergy.com, stocktitan.net); Q1 2026 earnings transcript (Motley Fool, Globe and Mail); 2026 guidance and Iraq delay (TipRanks, Simply Wall St, Minichart); Jamaica acquisition and Bangladesh deliveries (stocktitan.net).
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Excelerate Energy (consolidated) (reported)
- LNG (CHENIERE ENERGY, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …PART IV ITEM 15. EXHIBITS AND FINANCIAL STATEMENT SCHEDULES (a) Financial Statements, Schedules and Exhibits (1) Financial Statements-Cheniere Energy, Inc. and Subsidiaries: Management's Report to the Stockholders of Cheniere Energy, Inc. 55 Reports of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm 56 Consolidated…
- FY2025 10-K: …trade agreement providing for national treatment for trade in natural gas and with which trade is permitted SEC U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission SOFR Secured Overnight Financing Rate SPA LNG sale and purchase agreement TBtu trillion British thermal units; one British thermal unit measures the amount of energy…
- VG (VENTURE GLOBAL, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …reflected in our financial statements and disclosures. For further discussion, see Item 1A.- Risk Factors - Risks Relating to Regulation and Litigation - If we are unsuccessful in any current or potential future legal proceedings with customers, the amounts that we are required to pay may be substantial or certain of…
- FY2025 10-K: 025) 10.114#§† Executive Amended and Restated Services Agreement, by and between Venture Global LNG, Inc. and Thomas Earl, dated as of January 10, 2025 (incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.107 to Amendment No. 1 to the Registrant's Registration Statement on Form S-1 filed on January 13, 2025) 10.115#§† Executive…
- CQP (Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P.)
- FY2025 10-K: …basic and diluted net income per common unit, net income is reduced by the amount of undistributed net income allocated to participating securities other than common units, as required under the two-class method. See Note 14-Net Income per Common Unit . The accompanying notes are an integral part of these…
- FY2025 10-K: …12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes ☐ No ☒ The aggregate market value of the registrant's common units held by non-affiliates of the registrant was approximately $ 2.2 billion as of June 30, 2025. As of February 20, 2026, the registrant had 484,054,123 common units outstanding. Documents incorporated by reference: None…
- NFG (NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO)
- FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember nfg:IntegratedUpstreamAndGatheringMember 2022-10-01 2023-09-30 0000070145 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember nfg:OneCustomerMember us-gaap:CustomerConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember nfg:PipelineAndStorageMember 2022-10-01 2023-09-30 0000070145 country:US 2025-09-30…
- FY2025 10-K: …purchase price of $ 2.62 billion, subject to customary adjustments, as provided in the Purchase Agreement. Closing is expected to occur in the fourth quarter of calendar 2026, pending completion of a notice filing and review with the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, Hart-Scott-Rodino review, and other customary…
- UGI (UGI CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …into by Energy Services on March 6, 2020, as amended, scheduled to expire in May 2028 Energy Services Term Loan Credit Agreement - Term loan credit agreement entered into by Energy Services in August 2019, as amended, with a final maturity of February 2030 EPACT 2005 - Energy Policy Act of 2005 ERISA - Employee…
- FY2025 10-K: Energy Services uses the Receivables Facility to fund working capital, margin calls under commodity futures contracts, capital expenditures, dividends and for general corporate purposes. Under the Receivables Facility, Energy Services transfers, on an ongoing basis and without recourse, its trade accounts receivable…
- NJR (NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …Energy Ventures II Corporation and Spruce Power 5, LLC, dated as of November 25, 2024 (incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.45 to the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2024, as filed on November 26, 2024 ) 19.1+ Insider Trading Policy 21.1+ Subsidiaries of the Registrant 23.1+…
- FY2025 10-K: ERC-jurisdictional natural gas storage facility located in Pennsylvania, which is accounted for under the equity method of accounting. NJR Retail Holdings Corporation has one principal subsidiary: NJRHS, which provides heating, central air conditioning, standby generators, solar and other indoor and outdoor comfort…
- SR (Spire Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: Contents SPIRE INC. CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS September 30 (Dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2025 2024 ASSETS Utility Plant $ 9,333.9 $ 8,779.1 Less: Accumulated depreciation and amortization 2,577.4 2,535.8 Net Utility Plant 6,756.5 6,243.3 Non-utility Property (net of accumulated depreciation and…
- FY2025 10-K: …(as amended and restated effective as of January 1, 2005); filed as Exhibit 10.1 to Laclede Gas' Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended December 31, 2008. 10.12* Salient Features of the Company's Deferred Income Plan for Directors and Selected Executives (effective as of January 1, 2005); filed as…
- WES (Western Midstream Partners, LP)
- FY2025 10-K: …Midstream Partners, LP and Western Midstream Operating, LP. The accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements , which are included under Part II, Item 8 of this annual report, and Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations , which is included under Part II, Item 7…
- FY2025 10-K: …as of December 31, 2025. Amounts attributable to noncontrolling interests presented in this Item 7 consist of (i) the 25% third-party interest in Chipeta for all periods presented, and only for natural-gas assets for throughput attributable to WES, and (ii) the 1.9%, 2.0%, and 2.0% limited partner interest in WES…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.