DOVER Corp (DOV): what the price requires

At today's price, DOVER Corp (DOV) is priced for +23.9% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/DOV

Headline

FieldValue
TickerDOV
CompanyDOVER Corp
Current price$213.96/sh
CompositionEngineered Products 13% / Clean Energy & Fueling 26% / Imaging & Identification 14% / Pumps & Process Solutions 27% / Climate & Sustainability Technologies 19%

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin needed19.3%
Operating margin today16.6%
Margin expansion implied+2.7pp
Implied growth23.9%
Multiple paid24x operating income

The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.4% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~7.5pp.

How unusual the bet is: elevated

ReferenceValue
vs own history+1.37σ
cohort percentile (of 225 peers)58
sustained it ~5 years at this level32%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset2.15x5expensive
Earnings2.81x2expensive
Relative1.40x3expensive
Growth1.07x1expensive

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=11)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$0.00—noNegative/zero FCF — equity value floored at $0
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$0.00—noNegative/zero FCF or EBITDA — equity value floored at $0
Relative ValuationRelative$158.641.35xyesP/E 18x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 14.9x / 18.0x / 21.1x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 14x
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$87.632.44xyesBV/sh $55.12, ROE (TTM) 14.7%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$109.241.96xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$199.501.07xyesRev $8.3B, growth 12% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.9x / 3.5x / 4.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Growth-Adjusted P/ERelative——no—
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$67.863.15xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $1.37B × (1−21%) / WACC 8.2% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset$112.311.91xyesBV $55.12 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 14.7% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$99.732.15xyes√(22.5 × EPS $8.02 × BVPS $55.12) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$127.211.68xyesEBITDA $1.77B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x
FCF YieldEarnings——no—
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings——no—
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$6.7231.84xyesEPS $8.02 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$14.1515.12xyesBV $55.12 × (ROIC 2.1% / WACC 8.2%)
P/Sales SectorRelative$152.331.40xyesRevenue $8.28B × sector P/S 2.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelative——no—
Earnings YieldEarnings$86.702.47xyesEPS $8.02 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$4.0b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)3.79x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)2.99x
Interest coverage12.0x
Share count CAGR (buyback)-1.7%
Burning cashno

Bullet Takeaways

The one number that frames Dover's outlook is bookings, which rose 24% year over year to $2.5 billion in the first quarter, a 1.2 book-to-bill with all five segments above 1. That order intake is what underwrites the forward growth the price requires.

Dover is a diversified industrial spanning pumps and process solutions, clean energy and fueling, climate technology, imaging, and engineered products, increasingly tilted toward data-center liquid cooling, CO2 refrigeration, and biopharma. Operating margin is about 16.7%.

At about $224 the price is rich on most methods; only the growth-DCF reaches it, so it embeds a durability premium. The company raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $10.45 to $10.65, and analysts carry targets clustered near $250.

Bull Case

The single most decisive metric for Dover is its bookings, because for a diversified industrial, the order book is the clearest read on what the next year looks like, and it just turned sharply positive. First-quarter 2026 bookings reached $2.5 billion, up 24% year over year, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2 and, tellingly, all five segments above 1. That means demand is broadening across the whole portfolio, not concentrated in one hot end market. If that number changed, if bookings rolled over, the entire forward thesis would flip. Instead it accelerated, and it is the strongest single piece of evidence that the implied growth the price requires is achievable.

The order strength reflects Dover's repositioning toward secular-growth end markets. The company's filings describe its offerings addressing increased demand for liquid cooling in electronics, including data-center infrastructure, alongside midstream energy and grid investment (Dover FY2025 10-K, accession 0000029905-26-000009). Its CPC business makes the quick-disconnect connectors that cool AI data centers, its SWEP heat-exchanger unit is expanding capacity for data-center cooling, and its climate segment is riding strong demand for low-global-warming CO2 refrigeration systems (Dover FY2025 10-K, accession 0000029905-26-000009). On top of that, bolt-on acquisitions like Malema are building a higher-margin biopharma single-use franchise. These are growth vectors a standard industrial multiple does not fully capture.

The results are converting to earnings. First-quarter revenue rose 10% to $2.05 billion with 5.3% organic growth, adjusted EPS rose 11% to $2.28, and free cash flow improved to $131 million. Clean Energy and Fueling grew organically 15%, and the Climate segment's margin expanded on CO2 mix. Dover raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $10.45 to $10.65 on 5% to 7% revenue growth. A Dividend King with a disciplined bolt-on acquisition machine, expanding margins, and a book-to-bill above 1 across every segment is firing on most cylinders, which is why analysts have moved targets toward $250 and above, with one at $274. The bull thesis is durable compounding from a higher-quality, secular-growth-tilted portfolio.

Bear Case

Strip away the strong quarter and the qualitative observation is simple: Dover is an industrial conglomerate trading like a secular-growth compounder, and that re-rating is the risk. For most of its history Dover was a steady, cyclical collection of niche manufacturers that earned a mid-teens industrial multiple. The market has now decided that its data-center and biopharma exposure justify a premium, and the price reflects that optimism more than the company's long-run track record. The danger is that the durability premium proves to be enthusiasm for the AI and data-center theme attached to what is still, in the main, a cyclical industrial.

The numbers underneath that observation are sobering. At about $224 (June 27, 2026) the price is rich on nearly every valuation frame: the asset-based methods land in the high $80s to low $110s, the earnings-power value at zero growth near $64, the Graham number near $100, and even the relative methods, at a sector P/E and EV/EBITDA, land near $127 to $169, all below the price. Only the growth-DCF reaches $224, which means the price requires the recent acceleration to persist and margins to expand from today's 16.7% toward 20%. The inversion implies several years of sustained above-trend cash flow to justify the level, and the composite read is elevated with a fade flag.

The cyclical reality is that bookings cut both ways. A 24% bookings jump is wonderful in an up-cycle, but order books for industrial equipment can reverse quickly when customers pause capital projects, and a meaningful share of Dover's demand is tied to retail-refrigeration capex, fueling-station investment, and energy projects that are themselves cyclical. The company even noted organic declines in some lines on project timing. Net debt is about $4 billion, manageable at 12 times interest coverage but a constraint if the cycle turns and the acquisition pace continues. The bet at $224 is that a re-rated industrial sustains growth-stock economics through whatever the macro delivers, and the bear case is that the price already reflects the good news, leaving little room if the bookings momentum normalizes.

Valuation

At about $224 the price inverts on a duration basis: it implies roughly five years of sustained above-trend cash flow at about 25 times operating income, with the implied operating margin expanding toward 20% from today's 16.7%. The composite read is elevated with a fade flag, and the solve runs at a 9.5% cost of capital. The implied assumption is demanding for a diversified industrial, which is why only the growth-dependent methods reach the price.

The model X-ray shows the premium clearly. The asset-based methods land in the high $80s to low $110s off a $55 book value, the earnings-power value at zero growth near $64, and the Graham number near $100, all well below the price. The relative methods land closer but still under, with the sector-blended P/E near $169, EV/EBITDA near $127, and price-to-sales near $152. Only the future-market-cap growth projection, near $182, and the durable-growth inversion approach the quote. The cash-flow DCFs read as floored in the trailing data, so the relative and growth frames carry the load.

The pattern is unambiguous: asset, earnings-power, and peer-multiple frames all say richly valued, and only the durable-compounding case reaches the price. That is the signature of a quality industrial that has re-rated on secular-growth optimism. The bet at $224 is that the bookings strength, the data-center and biopharma mix shift, and the guided margin expansion deliver several years of above-trend growth, not that the shares are cheap on what the business currently earns, where the methods place fair value well below the price.

Catalysts

First-quarter 2026 results, reported April 23, were the key recent catalyst and the stock jumped. Revenue rose 10% to $2.05 billion with 5.3% organic growth, adjusted EPS rose 11% to $2.28, and free cash flow improved to $131 million. The standout was bookings of $2.5 billion, up 24% year over year, a 1.2 book-to-bill with all five segments above 1. Clean Energy and Fueling grew organically 15%. Dover raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $10.45 to $10.65 on 5% to 7% revenue growth, and BofA lifted its target to $274.

The forward catalysts center on the secular-growth end markets and the order book. The watch items are whether bookings momentum and the book-to-bill above 1 hold in coming quarters, the ramp of data-center liquid-cooling demand through CPC and SWEP, continued CO2 refrigeration adoption in the climate segment, the integration and contribution of biopharma bolt-on acquisitions like Malema, and segment margin expansion toward the guided levels. The risks to monitor are any softening in cyclical end markets such as retail-refrigeration and fueling capex, and the pace of acquisitions against the balance sheet. Analysts carry targets clustered near $250 and above.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Engineered Products (reported)

Clean Energy & Fueling (reported)

Imaging & Identification (reported)

Pumps & Process Solutions (reported)

Climate & Sustainability Technologies (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

View the full interactive DOV report on boothcheck