DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP (DECK): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $87.67, DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP (DECK) is priced for -2.1% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-25.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/DECK

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 9: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.7% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.9%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• UGG remains the larger of the two brands at $2.74 billion of fiscal 2026 net sales against HOKA's $2.59 billion, and it is the one with the awkward calendar, since "A significant part of the UGG brand's business has historically been seasonal, with the highest percentage of net sales occurring in the third fiscal quarter".
• Two brands account for roughly 97% of revenue, which concentrates the risk precisely where the filing places it: "The footwear, apparel, and accessories industry is highly competitive and subject to rapidly changing consumer preferences."
• Trailing operating profit converts revenue at about 23%, roughly three to seven times what the listed footwear peers manage, and whether that gap is a moat or a high-water mark is the entire investment question.

Bull Case

Footwear is not usually a good business. Columbia converts $3.4 billion of revenue into a 6.0% operating margin. Wolverine manages 8.6% on $1.9 billion. Crocs runs 3.2% and Steven Madden 4.8%; Under Armour is currently below zero at negative 3.3%. Deckers converts about 23%. That is not a rounding difference or a good quarter. It is a structurally different position inside the same industry, held while every listed comparable sits in single digits, and it is the fact the bull case is built on.

Two things produce it. The first is that neither brand competes on price. HOKA is described in the filing as "The HOKA brand is an authentic premium line of year-round performance footwear", and UGG occupies a category it effectively created. Neither is a fashion sneaker fighting for shelf space on discount. The second is channel control. The company keeps expanding the part of the business it owns, noting that it continues "to selectively expand our HOKA brand presence through additional wholesale partner locations and targeted DTC channel retail store expansion". Selling directly captures the retailer's margin and, more importantly, the decision about when to discount.

Both brands are still growing. Fiscal 2026 net sales rose 9.8% to $5.47 billion, with HOKA up 15.9% to $2.59 billion and UGG up 8.2% to $2.74 billion. The company adds that "On a constant currency basis, net sales increased by 9.0%, compared to the prior period." A currency-adjusted figure close to the headline means the growth is volume and price rather than exchange rates, which is the version that actually compounds.

The returns follow. Trailing return on shareholder equity runs about 41.0%, on a book value per share of $17.32 and trailing earnings per share of $7.02. Free cash flow came in near 1,097 million dollars against stock compensation of roughly 40 million dollars, so what the business reports is very close to what an owner would actually receive. Few consumer brands convert that cleanly.

There is also no financial engineering underneath any of it. The 10-K states that "During the year ended March 31, 2026, the Company made no borrowings or repayments under the Primary Credit Facility." Cash and equivalents stood at $1.907 billion at the same date against no drawn borrowings at all, and the share count has fallen about 3.4% a year over the four years to the end of 2025. A business earning these margins with no debt and a shrinking share count does not need anything to go right to keep compounding. It needs nothing to go badly wrong.

Bear Case

The question that decides this stock is whether last year's profit is a run rate or a high-water mark. Consumer footwear is a cyclical category dressed up as a branded one, and the cycle runs on taste rather than on GDP. Every peer in this cohort earns a single-digit operating margin. Deckers earns roughly 23%. One reading is that it has a durable position the others lack. The other reading is that the industry's normal return is the single digit, and that a company earning four times that is somewhere near the top of a demand wave it did not create and cannot schedule.

Two facts make the second reading harder to dismiss. The first is concentration. UGG and HOKA together are about 97% of revenue, and UGG alone is half. A brand that is half the company and rests on one material has a specific vulnerability, and the filing names it: "Because sheepskin is integral to the UGG brand, adverse changes in consumer preferences, regulatory requirements, or sourcing standards applicable to sheepskin could have a material adverse effect". The second is timing. Because "A significant part of the UGG brand's business has historically been seasonal, with the highest percentage of net sales occurring in the third fiscal quarter", half the company reports its verdict in one quarter of the year. A single warm autumn compresses a year's worth of judgment into a few weeks of sell-through.

The margin is already under external pressure. Discussing the UGG brand, the filing attributes an operating profit increase to higher net sales "partially offset by slightly lower gross margins driven by tariffs", alongside higher advertising and marketing as a share of net sales. Tariffs are a cost the company does not control and cannot design around quickly. Marketing spend rising as a percentage of sales is a different signal, and a more uncomfortable one: it suggests growth is now costing more per dollar than it used to.

HOKA's position is the part most exposed to competition. Performance running is the single most contested category in footwear right now, with every major athletic brand and a wave of newer entrants pushing into cushioned trainers. The filing's own framing is that "The footwear, apparel, and accessories industry is highly competitive and subject to rapidly changing consumer preferences." HOKA grew 15.9% in fiscal 2026, which is good, and which is also slower than the pace that built its reputation. Deceleration in the growth brand while the seasonal brand carries half the revenue is not a crisis. It is the shape a peak takes on the way in.

To be fair to the bull, the price is not asking for much. That is precisely the trap worth naming: a low bar looks cheap only if the base it is measured from is the right one. If trailing operating profit is a cycle peak, the multiple on normalized profit is a good deal higher than the multiple on the trailing figure, and the balance sheet, which is genuinely strong, does not change that arithmetic at all.

Valuation

The bar this price sets is unusually low, and it is worth stating before anything else. Today's $96.15 works out to about 9.4 times a year of company-wide operating profit, and clearing that requires operating profit to grow roughly 0.4% a year over five years. Not 4%. Under half of one percent. Against a business that grew net sales 9.8% in its last fiscal year, that is a requirement the company would have to actively fail to meet.

The methods mostly agree with that read. The earnings-power approaches land essentially at the price. Peer multiples land above it, and the forward-growth approaches land well above it. Only the asset lens, book value combined with profitability, leaves a gap, with the price about 25% above where that family sits, which is what happens when a highly profitable brand company carries very little book value per share. Three of four families support the current quote. This is a value read, not a growth read.

The honest complication is the base. Every one of those methods runs off trailing profit, and trailing profit here reflects an operating margin near 23% in an industry where the listed comparables earn single digits. COLM converts $3.4 billion at 6.0%, WWW converts $1.9 billion at 8.6%, CROX runs 3.2% and SHOO 4.8%. If the right normalized margin for a premium footwear brand is closer to the middle of that range than to today's figure, then the multiple on sustainable earnings is meaningfully higher than the multiple on last year's, and the cheapness thins out. This section cannot settle that, and pretending otherwise would be the wrong kind of confidence.

Against the sector the shares sit in the lower half of the peer multiple range, which is consistent with a market that has already discounted some of that concern rather than ignored it. The calculation is also sensitive in the usual way: a single percentage point of movement in the cost of capital shifts the required growth rate by nearly four points, which is a reminder that a 0.4% requirement is a soft number rather than a precise one.

The balance sheet is the cleanest part of the file and it genuinely bounds the downside. Cash and equivalents stood at 1.907 billion dollars on March 31, 2026, the company reports "During the year ended March 31, 2026, the Company made no borrowings or repayments under the Primary Credit Facility.", and free cash flow ran near 1,097 million dollars against fiscal 2026 net sales of $5.47 billion. Roughly one dollar in seven of the market value is cash, with nothing owed against it. A brand cycle turning would hurt the earnings; it would not threaten the company.

Catalysts

The most recent print landed on July 23, 2026 and cleared its bar. Deckers reported first-quarter earnings per share of $0.94 against a Q1 consensus of $0.88, and passed $1 billion of first-quarter revenue for the first time. For a company whose largest brand books most of its sales in the autumn and winter, a record first quarter matters less for its size than for what it says about HOKA carrying the off-season.

Guidance moved with it, though barely. Management raised its fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share range to $7.35 to $7.50 from $7.30 to $7.45. A five-cent increase at both ends is a small revision, and it is the kind that says the year is tracking rather than accelerating. Set against trailing earnings per share of $7.02, that guidance range implies growth in the mid single digits, which is well ahead of what the current price appears to require.

The sell side read the same release less warmly. Telsey Advisory Group cut its price target to $105 from $113 the following day, and several other firms trimmed targets at the same time. Beating on earnings while targets come down usually means the debate has moved off the current quarter and onto margins, and the tariff commentary in the annual filing is the most likely reason. The next scheduled event that resolves any of it is the second-quarter report in the autumn, which is also the run-up to the UGG selling season.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

HOKA brand (reported)

• ONON (On Holding AG)
• FY2025 20-F: …consumer experience. Direct-to-Consumer ("DTC") When people step into our DTC channels, they get to experience On in its fullest expression. Our owned retail stores and our global e-commerce platform offer premium access to our products and stories that helps us build deeper relationships with our fans. Launched in…
• FY2025 20-F: …global sportswear companies and specialized performance brands, such as Nike, Inc., adidas AG, Under Armour, Inc., Brooks Sports Inc., Hoka One One (Deckers Outdoor Corporation), ASICS Corporation, New Balance Athletics, Inc., lululemon athletica Inc., Alo, LLC., Patagonia, Inc., Arc'teryx Equipment, Anta Sports…
• NKE (NIKE, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and clinics. • Effective sourcing and distribution of products, with attractive merchandising and presentation at retail, both in-store and on digital platforms. We believe that we are competitive in all of these areas. See Item 1A. Risk Factors, including the risk factor titled "Our products, services and…
• FY2025 10-K: 2025 FORM 10-K 83 Table of Contents NOTE 15 - SEGMENT INFORMATION The Company's reportable operating segments reflect the structure of the Company's internal organization and the financial information the Chief Operating Decision Maker ("CODM"), the Company's Chief Executive Officer, regularly reviews to assess…
• UAA (UNDER ARMOUR, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …to the financial condition and operating results of our business. We manage our inventory levels based on existing orders, anticipated sales and the rapid delivery requirements of our customers. Our inventory strategy is focused on meeting consumer demand while improving our inventory efficiency over the long term by…
• FY2025 10-K: …marketing and distributing branded performance apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. Our performance products are engineered in many designs and styles for use in nearly every climate and are worn worldwide by athletes at all levels, from youth to professional, on various playing fields around…
• COLM (COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …for our products, identify our company and differentiate our products from competitors' products. We own many trademarks, including Columbia Sportswear Company®, Columbia®, SOREL®, Mountain Hardwear®, prAna®, the Columbia diamond shaped logo, the Mountain Hardwear nut logo, the SOREL polar bear logo, and the prAna…
• FY2025 10-K: …public relations efforts. In addition, we reinforce our brands' marketing messages with our key wholesale customers by utilizing digital platforms, television, print and advertising campaigns, as well as in-store branded visual merchandising display tools and favorable product presentation. We also authorize and…
• WWW (WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: TEST ® footwear is distributed primarily through a distributor network with Shoemobile ® mobile trucks and retail outlets providing direct sales of the Company's occupational and work footwear brands to workers at industrial facilities and through direct sales arrangements with large industrial customers. 6 Other…
• FY2025 10-K: …sourcing, marketing, licensing and distributing branded footwear, apparel and accessories. Revenue for the reportable segments includes revenue from the sale of branded footwear, apparel and accessories to third-party customers; revenue from third-party distributors, licensees and joint ventures; and revenue from the…

UGG brand (reported)

• CROX (CROCS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …through driving awareness and relevance for our brands - Central to our Crocs Brand's DNA are our clogs, sandals, and Jibbitz™ charms, which are key product pillars that we believe will drive long-term growth. Our Classic Clog is our icon, and we continue to grow our broader clog silhouette with new designs, colors,…
• FY2025 10-K: …the image of our brands, undermine consumer confidence in us, and reduce long-term demand for our products, even if the regulatory or legal action is unfounded or not material to our operations. Negative claims or publicity involving us, our products, or any of our key employees, endorsers, or business partners could…
• SHOO (STEVEN MADDEN, LTD.)
• FY2025 10-K: …under the Steve Madden brand. The Steve Madden brand is a leader in the fashion footwear industry with permission from the customer to sell products across most footwear categories including dress shoes, boots, booties, fashion sneakers, and casuals. While the brand appeals to a wide demographic, the core target…
• FY2025 10-K: …retailers, national chains, specialty retailers, independent stores, and clubs throughout the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, Mexico, and through our joint ventures and international distributor network. • Wholesale Accessories/Apparel. This segment designs, sources, and markets our brands and…
• WWW (WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …sourcing, marketing, licensing and distributing branded footwear, apparel and accessories. Revenue for the reportable segments includes revenue from the sale of branded footwear, apparel and accessories to third-party customers; revenue from third-party distributors, licensees and joint ventures; and revenue from the…
• FY2025 10-K: …See Note 16 to the Company's Consolidated Financial Statements for further discussion of environmental remediation costs. INTEREST, OTHER AND TAXES Net interest expense was $32.8 million in 2025 compared to $42.7 million in 2024. Interest expense decreased in the current year due to lower average principal balances…
• COLM (COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …public relations efforts. In addition, we reinforce our brands' marketing messages with our key wholesale customers by utilizing digital platforms, television, print and advertising campaigns, as well as in-store branded visual merchandising display tools and favorable product presentation. We also authorize and…
• FY2025 10-K: , especially during periods of heightened economic uncertainty in our key markets. • Highly Competitive Markets. In each of our geographic markets, we face significant competition from global and regional branded apparel, footwear, accessories, and equipment companies. More recently this competition has extended to…
• GIII (G III APPAREL GROUP LTD /DE/)
• FY2025 10-K: …primarily include outerwear, dresses, sportswear, suit separates, athleisure, jeans, swimwear, as well as handbags, footwear, small leather goods, cold weather accessories and luggage. We believe the potential of our brands will assist us in gaining new customers and expanding our product offerings. We have increased…
• FY2025 10-K: …conducted our business since 1974. ​ Company Overview ​ G-III is a global leader in fashion with expertise in design, sourcing, distribution and marketing, which enables us to fuel growth across a portfolio of over 30 globally recognized owned and licensed brands anchored by our key owned brands DKNY, Donna Karan,…

Other Brands (reported)

• COLM (COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …for our products, identify our company and differentiate our products from competitors' products. We own many trademarks, including Columbia Sportswear Company®, Columbia®, SOREL®, Mountain Hardwear®, prAna®, the Columbia diamond shaped logo, the Mountain Hardwear nut logo, the SOREL polar bear logo, and the prAna…
• FY2025 10-K: , especially during periods of heightened economic uncertainty in our key markets. • Highly Competitive Markets. In each of our geographic markets, we face significant competition from global and regional branded apparel, footwear, accessories, and equipment companies. More recently this competition has extended to…
• WWW (WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …sourcing, marketing, licensing and distributing branded footwear, apparel and accessories. Revenue for the reportable segments includes revenue from the sale of branded footwear, apparel and accessories to third-party customers; revenue from third-party distributors, licensees and joint ventures; and revenue from the…
• FY2025 10-K: 17 to license the Stride Rite ® brand. Sourcing Division: The sourcing division earns third-party commission revenue by providing consulting services related to product development, production control, quality assurance, materials procurement, compliance and other services. Multi-brand Direct-to-Consumer Division: The…
• CROX (CROCS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …the image of our brands, undermine consumer confidence in us, and reduce long-term demand for our products, even if the regulatory or legal action is unfounded or not material to our operations. Negative claims or publicity involving us, our products, or any of our key employees, endorsers, or business partners could…
• FY2025 10-K: …with both celebrity endorsers and design, celebrity, and brand collaborators to develop, evaluate, and promote our products, as well as strengthen our brands. In a competitive environment, the costs associated with establishment and retention of these relationships may increase. If we are unable to maintain current…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.