DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP (DECK): what the price requires

At today's price, DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP (DECK) is priced for +3.8% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/DECK

Headline

FieldValue
TickerDECK
CompanyDECKERS OUTDOOR CORP
Current price$107.54/sh
CompositionHOKA 47% / UGG 50% / Other Brands 3%

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Implied growth3.8%
Multiple paid11x operating income

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.8% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~4pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~-2.5%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

ReferenceValue
vs own history-0.41σ
cohort percentile (of 210 peers)17
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset1.40x5expensive
Earnings1.20x5expensive
Relative0.84x5justifies
Growth0.62x3justifies

Families that justify the price: Earnings, Relative, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=18)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$247.750.43xyesFCF base $1.2B, growth 11% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.0%, 6yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$173.920.62xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 9.1x / 11.1x / 13.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr
Relative ValuationRelative$128.480.84xyesP/E 18x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 14.9x / 18.0x / 21.1x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 12x
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$76.731.40xyesBV/sh $17.32, ROE (TTM) 41.0%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$181.010.59xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$116.850.92xyesRev $5.5B, growth 11% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.3x / 2.8x / 3.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$245.700.44xyesEPS $7.02, growth 35% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.43 (Undervalued)
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$80.551.34xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.92B × (1−21%) / WACC 9.0% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset$121.800.88xyesBV $17.32 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 41.0% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$52.312.06xyes√(22.5 × EPS $7.02 × BVPS $17.32) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$115.650.93xyesEBITDA $1.26B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$92.841.16xyesFCF $1097.3M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings$89.481.20xyesSBC-adj FCF $1.05B (FCF $1.10B − SBC $0.04B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$226.510.47xyesEPS $7.02 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$24.554.38xyesBV $17.32 × (ROIC 12.8% / WACC 9.0%)
P/Sales SectorRelative$94.811.13xyesRevenue $5.47B × sector P/S 2.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelative$263.250.41xyesEPS $7.02 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x
Earnings YieldEarnings$75.891.42xyesEPS $7.02 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net cash$1.9b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)-1.91x (net cash)
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)-1.51x (net cash)
Share count CAGR (buyback)-3.4%
Burning cashno

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

It helps to be clear about what stage Deckers is in, because the numbers read differently depending on the answer. Deckers is no longer a speculative growth story and not yet a slow-growing mature one; it is a high-return brand company whose two engines are still growing double digits and high single digits while throwing off the margins of a far more mature business. Fiscal 2026 closed at a record $5.47 billion in revenue, up 10%, with diluted earnings per share of $7.02, up 11%, on operating margins above 23%. A company growing revenue at 10% with 23% operating margins and no debt is the rare combination of growth and quality, and the right way to read its multiple is against that combination, not against a generic apparel peer.

The two brands are doing different jobs, and both are working. HOKA grew 16% to $2.59 billion, taking what the filing describes as "global market sha"re in performance running, while UGG grew 8% to $2.74 billion on "strong global adoption of key product franchises." HOKA is the growth brand, an "authentic premium line of year-round performance footwear" expanding from running into broader categories, and UGG is the cash-generative brand that has defied its seasonal, faddish reputation by extending into new styles and selling year-round. Crucially, Deckers has shifted both brands toward direct-to-consumer, where it owns the customer relationship and the margin, and the filing credits HOKA's online growth to "global gains in consumer acquisition and retention online." A brand that sells direct keeps more of every dollar and learns faster what its customer wants next.

The capital story and the valuation close the bull case. With about $1.9 billion of net cash and essentially no debt, Deckers funds its growth internally and returns the surplus, repurchasing $1.075 billion of stock in fiscal 2026 and shrinking the share count about 3% a year. And the price is not demanding: at roughly eleven times operating income, the market is paying for only about 5% annual growth, well below what the company just delivered and below where it sits in its peer group. Management has laid out a multi-year framework targeting high-single-digit revenue growth through 2030 with low-double-digit EPS compounding. If Deckers merely executes that plan, the current multiple looks conservative for a debt-free, high-margin, growing brand owner.

Bear Case

The bear case starts with the external variables Deckers does not control, because they have the most leverage on a brand company's margins. Tariffs are the live one: Deckers paid $120 million in tariffs and its fiscal 2027 guidance assumes no refund, with gross margin explicitly pressured by higher freight and input costs. The 10-K is direct that trade and sourcing changes "can adversely affect sourcing costs, product pricing, inventory flow, and product demand, which could materially increase our cost of sales, adversely affect our gross margins, and reduce our competitiveness." Deckers makes its shoes offshore and sells them globally, so a tariff regime or a freight spike lands straight on the 23% margin that justifies the premium. The current price does not assume those margins compress much; the macro backdrop says they might.

The deeper risk is the nature of the product. Footwear is fashion, and fashion is fickle. Deckers itself warns that consumer preferences "cannot be predicted with certainty" and that "our brands may fall out of favor with consumers." UGG spent years as the cautionary tale of a brand that boomed and then cooled, and while management has diversified it, the risk that a hero franchise loses heat is permanent in this category. HOKA carries the same risk in mirror image: it is the hot brand now, and hot brands in performance footwear have a history of attracting a wave of competitors and then plateauing. The filing concedes that offshore manufacturing and e-commerce have "made it easier for new companies to enter the markets in which we compete." Two brands carrying an entire company is leverage on the way up and concentration on the way down.

The growth-deceleration signal is the near-term tell. HOKA's guided growth steps down from 16% to low double digits, with a softer high-single-digit June quarter that management attributes to one-time wholesale timing rather than weakening demand. The bull takes that explanation at face value; the bear notes that "timing shift" is exactly how decelerations are first described. The valuation gives Deckers a cushion here, since the price already assumes only modest growth and the balance sheet is pristine, so this is not a solvency or even an overvaluation story. It is a question of whether HOKA's growth is pausing or maturing. If it is maturing faster than the framework assumes, the brand that has driven the story loses its premium, and a two-brand company becomes a one-and-a-half-brand company at a fuller price.

Valuation

The notable thing about Deckers' price is how little it asks. At roughly eleven times operating income, the inversion implies only about 5% annual operating growth for five years, and it implies the operating margin falling from today's 23% toward the low single digits. In other words, the price is built on a meaningfully worse Deckers than the one that exists, a company growing slowly and giving back most of its margin. Against the company's own recent record of 10% revenue growth and 23% margins, that is a conservative bar, and the framework reads the priced-in assumption as comfortably within range, sitting in the lower half of the peer multiple range rather than at a premium.

The methods we use to triangulate confirm the picture is value-supported, not stretched. The growth-based methods land well above the price, reflecting the gap between the modest growth the price assumes and the stronger growth Deckers has delivered. The peer-multiple lens lands right at the price, and the earnings-power and asset lenses sit modestly above it. There is no family screaming overvaluation; the spread, if anything, points the other way, with the forward-growth methods suggesting the price under-credits the franchise. For a debt-free brand owner with these margins, a multiple this measured is the market pricing in the deceleration and the tariff risk in advance.

Solvency is a non-issue and actually reinforces the value case. Deckers holds about $1.9 billion of net cash, covers interest hundreds of times over, and is shrinking its share count about 3% a year through a large buyback funded entirely from internal cash flow. There is no leverage to worry about and no dilution eroding the per-share economics; the capital return is direct evidence that management sees the stock as worth buying. The downside is bounded by a fortress balance sheet and two genuine global brands. What the valuation cannot underwrite is brand heat, the one variable that no balance sheet protects. The buyer at this price is paying a modest multiple for a high-quality, cash-rich brand company and betting mainly that HOKA and UGG stay relevant, which is a more favorable setup than the price implies, with the fashion cycle as the real risk rather than the valuation.

Catalysts

Deckers closed fiscal 2026 with another record and a more cautious outlook attached. Full-year revenue rose 10% to a record $5.47 billion, diluted EPS climbed 11% to $7.02, and operating margins held above 23%, with HOKA up 16% to $2.59 billion, including its largest quarter ever, and UGG up 8% to $2.74 billion. The company also repurchased $1.075 billion of stock during the year, a meaningful return of capital for a company its size.

The guidance is where the tone shifted. For fiscal 2027, management sees revenue of $5.86 billion to $5.91 billion and EPS of $7.30 to $7.45, with HOKA growing low double digits and UGG mid-single digits, and it flagged gross margin pressure from higher freight, input costs, and $120 million of tariffs paid with no refund assumed. Management also framed a multi-year plan through 2030 targeting high-single-digit revenue growth and low-double-digit EPS compounding, an explicit signal that the hyper-growth phase is giving way to steady, high-quality growth.

The near-term swing factor is HOKA's June-quarter deceleration to high-single-digit growth, which management attributes to one-time wholesale timing shifts rather than a change in underlying demand. That is the claim the next print will test. If the deceleration is genuinely timing and HOKA reaccelerates, the conservative guidance becomes a low bar the company beats; if the softness persists, it reframes HOKA from a 16%-grower to a low-double-digit one, which matters more for the brand narrative than for the already-modest valuation. Tariff developments and any move toward refunds are the other catalyst to watch on the margin line.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

HOKA brand (reported)

UGG brand (reported)

Other Brands (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

Q4 fiscal 2026 results, May 2026 · Q4 fiscal 2026 guidance · Q4 fiscal 2026 outlook

View the full interactive DECK report on boothcheck