DOMINION ENERGY, INC (D): what the price requires

At today's price, DOMINION ENERGY, INC (D) is priced for -3.0% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/D

Headline

FieldValue
TickerD
CompanyDOMINION ENERGY, INC
Current price$70.75/sh
CompositionRegulated electric sales: Residential 37% / Regulated electric sales: Commercial 25% / Regulated electric sales: High load 11% / Regulated electric sales: Industrial 4% / Regulated electric sales: Government and other retail 8% / Regulated electric sales: Wholesale 1% / Nonregulated electric sales 8% / Regulated gas sales: Residential 2% / Regulated gas sales: Commercial 1% / Regulated gas sales: Other 0% / Regulated gas transportation and storage 0% / Other regulated revenues 2% / Other nonregulated revenues 2% / Other revenues 0%

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin today26.3%
Implied growth-3.0%
Multiple paid25x operating income

Solve inputs: computed at a 6.1% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~9.8pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~23%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

ReferenceValue
vs own history-0.16σ
cohort percentile (of 70 peers)71
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset1.87x5expensive
Earnings1.57x4expensive
Relative0.70x5justifies
Growth0.77x4justifies

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=18)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$142.940.49xyesFCF base $5.5B, growth 17% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.0%, 6yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$88.970.80xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 7.3x / 9.3x / 11.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr
Relative ValuationRelative$89.680.79xyesP/E 20x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 16.3x / 20.0x / 23.7x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 13x
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth$94.610.75xyesStage 1: 20% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$36.291.95xyesBV/sh $33.12, ROE (TTM) 10.1%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$37.931.87xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$59.861.18xyesRev $17.5B, growth 17% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.9x / 3.6x / 4.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$118.300.60xyesEPS $3.38, growth 35% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.60 (Undervalued)
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$33.132.14xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $3.72B × (1−6%) / WACC 9.0% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset$38.231.85xyesBV $33.12 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 10.1% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 6.6%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$50.191.41xyes√(22.5 × EPS $3.38 × BVPS $33.12) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$100.560.70xyesEBITDA $7.02B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$59.031.20xyesFCF $5060.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings——no—
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$109.060.65xyesEPS $3.38 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$15.084.69xyesBV $33.12 × (ROIC 4.1% / WACC 9.0%)
P/Sales SectorRelative$49.771.42xyesRevenue $17.52B × sector P/S 2.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelative$126.750.56xyesEPS $3.38 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x
Earnings YieldEarnings$36.541.94xyesEPS $3.38 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$49.6b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)11.49x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)10.83x
Share count CAGR (dilution)1.4%
Burning cashno

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

What a simple earnings multiple misses about Dominion is the demand wave forming in its service territory. Most utilities grow their rate base at the slow, steady pace of population and inflation. Dominion sits in Virginia, where the concentration of data centers is the highest in the world, and that means electricity demand in its footprint is growing far faster than the typical utility's. The company has over 50 gigawatts of potential load in various stages of contracting, with 10.4 gigawatts already locked under electric service agreements. Each megawatt of new data-center load requires generation, transmission, and distribution that Dominion builds, adds to its rate base, and earns a regulated return on. The earnings model does not capture how unusual a regulated monopoly with a structural, technology-driven demand tailwind is.

That tailwind is funding an enormous, recoverable capital program. Dominion plans roughly $65 billion of capital investment from 2026 through 2030, and it supports a long-term operating-earnings growth target of 5% to 7%. The growth is largely de-risked by regulation: Virginia law specifically deems an offshore wind facility of up to 5.2 gigawatts "to be in the public interest and provides certain presumptions facilitating cost recovery," and the company is "developing, financing and constructing new generation capacity" alongside nuclear license extensions to meet the load. When the state writes cost-recovery presumptions into law, the regulatory lag and disallowance risk that haunt other utilities are materially reduced.

The flagship project is well past the riskiest phase. The Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project is over 75% complete at a budget of $11.4 billion, about $100 million below the prior estimate, and has already begun delivering power to customers. A multi-billion-dollar construction project that is three-quarters done, on budget, and producing power is past the point where cost overruns typically appear. A regulated monopoly with a data-center demand surge, a $65 billion recoverable capital plan, legislated cost-recovery support, and its largest project nearly finished is the substance the price is leaning on, and it pays a dividend backed by that regulated cash flow.

Bear Case

The valuation methods disagree about Dominion, and reading why is the bear case. The asset-value methods, built on a $33.12 book value and a trailing return on equity around 10%, say the price is rich. The earnings-power methods, which capitalize current profit, say richly valued too. Only the relative-multiple and growth-cash-flow methods, which credit the future capital-driven growth, reach the price. The honest reading of that split is that the price already capitalizes the data-center growth story; you are not buying a cheap utility, you are paying up for the best growth narrative in the sector. The inversion confirms it: Dominion's multiple sits at the very top of its peer distribution, well beyond the upper quartile. When a regulated utility trades at the richest multiple among its peers, the conservative methods are warning that the optimism is fully priced.

The execution risk sits in the capital program itself. A $65 billion plan through 2030 is enormous, and every dollar of it has to be approved by regulators and recovered in rates over time. The company is explicit that this is not automatic: a "loss is recognized if it becomes probable that capital expenditures will be disallowed for rat"e recovery. A single large disallowance, a cost overrun on a remaining project phase, or a regulator that balks at the pace of rate increases falling on residential customers would strike directly at the returns the price assumes. The offshore wind project is mostly de-risked at 75% complete, but the back quarter of any megaproject, and the multi-year build-out behind it, still carries the possibility of surprises.

The financing is the amplifier. Dominion already carries about $50 billion of debt, and funding $65 billion of new investment means continued heavy borrowing and some equity issuance, with the share count drifting up. In a higher-rate environment, the cost of that new debt rises while the allowed return is set in periodic rate cases, squeezing the spread. The first quarter showed the ordinary pressure: GAAP net income slipped to $621 million, or $0.69 per share, from $665 million a year earlier. What the price requires is for the demand growth, the regulatory cooperation, and the financing access all to hold together for years; the conservative methods say there is little room for any one of them to disappoint.

Valuation

This report assigns no fair value and no target. It works backward from the $68.38 price (June 27, 2026) to the assumption embedded in it, then measures the distance to each way of valuing the business, on the terms a regulated utility requires.

The price is a premium for growth, not a value entry, and the methods make that explicit. The asset-value methods, anchored on a $33.12 book value and a roughly 10% return on equity, sit below the price, as do the earnings-power methods. Only the relative-multiple and growth-cash-flow lenses reach it. For a utility, that pattern means the market is paying for rate-base growth and the data-center demand story, not for current book value or trailing profit. The clearest measure of how much is paid is peer position: Dominion's multiple sits at the very top of its sector's distribution, well above the upper quartile. That is the market's verdict that this is the premium growth utility, and it is priced as such.

Inverting the price gives a benign-looking headline that needs context. At today's level the market is paying about 24 times company-wide operating profit, which on a whole-company basis implies modestly negative operating growth, but that figure understates the bet because it averages a slow-growing legacy base with a fast-growing data-center-driven Virginia franchise. The real "what has to be true" is that the $65 billion capital program earns its regulated return on schedule and the data-center load contracts convert to rate base, supporting the 5% to 7% long-term earnings growth the company targets. The premium multiple is the price of believing that program executes cleanly.

Solvency is the constraint and must be read on utility terms. Net debt of about $50 billion is large, but it funds a regulated rate base that earns an allowed return, so high leverage is structural rather than alarming for this kind of business. The risk is the cost and recovery of that financing: a $65 billion build means continued borrowing into whatever rate environment prevails, and the allowed return resets only at rate cases. The dividend rests on the same regulated cash flows. The price is paying for the premium growth story to execute; the balance sheet can carry the program so long as regulators keep authorizing recovery and the cost of capital stays manageable, which is exactly what the rich multiple leaves little margin for.

Catalysts

The clearest catalyst is the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project, the company's largest single investment. It is over 75% complete at a budget of $11.4 billion, roughly $100 million below the prior estimate, and has begun delivering power to customers. Each construction and cost-recovery milestone is a discrete event: on-budget completion validates the growth plan, while any overrun or recovery dispute would weigh on the premium the stock carries.

The data-center load pipeline is the forward growth signal. Dominion reports over 50 gigawatts in various stages of contracting and 10.4 gigawatts already under electric service agreements. Each new long-term load contract converts into future rate base, so the pace of contracting, and the regulatory approvals to serve it, are the events that extend the growth runway.

Guidance and rate-case outcomes are the recurring reads. The company affirmed full-year 2026 operating-earnings guidance of $3.45 to $3.69 per share and reiterated a 5% to 7% long-term growth target backed by the $65 billion capital plan. Because so much of the thesis depends on recovering that capital in rates, each regulatory decision in Virginia is a catalyst, and the rate environment is the macro variable with the most leverage over the financing of the plan.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Dominion Energy Virginia (reported)

Dominion Energy South Carolina (reported)

Contracted Energy (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

Dominion Energy Q1 2026 earnings call · Dominion Energy Q1 2026 results release

View the full interactive D report on boothcheck