CURTISS-WRIGHT CORPORATION (CW): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $566.75, CURTISS-WRIGHT CORPORATION (CW) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~6.1 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-25.

Generated: 2026-09-07 · Exported: 2026-09-09 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CW

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling.

How unusual the bet is: elevated (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

• Naval defense is the largest single revenue line at 27% of sales, and the content is specific: the company supplies "naval propulsion and auxiliary equipment, including main coolant pumps, power-dense compact motors, generators, steam turbines, valves, and secondary propulsion" systems.

• Backlog stood at roughly $4.1 billion at the end of December against annual revenue near 3.61 billion, which is a little over a year of work booked and less cover than the multiple on these shares implies.

• Second quarter results are due after the close on August 5, 2026, following a first quarter at which full-year guidance for sales, margins and free cash flow was raised.

Bull Case

Deal with the price first, because it is the objection. At $750.52 the market is paying for this company's operating profit to keep compounding at the top of what it can fund from its own cash flow for something like nine years. Roughly 16% of comparable fast-growers have historically managed a run that long. So the bull case cannot be that the shares are cheap. It has to be that this particular business belongs in that 16%, and the March quarter is the place to start looking.

Sales rose 13.4% to $913.7 million in the quarter, and the growth was not evenly spread. Naval and Power, the largest of the three reporting segments, grew 20.8% to $402.6 million from $333.4 million, and lifted its operating income to $59.8 million. Aerospace and Industrial grew 12.1% to $254.9 million and pushed operating income to $38.5 million from $29.9 million, a margin improvement of nearly two full points. Defense Electronics grew more slowly, at 4.8%, but converted 27.9% of its sales into operating profit. Three segments, three different growth rates, and margins moving up in all three.

What makes the naval position unusually durable is what the products are. The company supplies "naval propulsion and auxiliary equipment, including main coolant pumps, power-dense compact motors, generators, steam turbines, valves, and secondary propulsion" systems, which is to say the mechanical core of a nuclear-powered warship. Equipment of that kind is designed into a hull class, qualified over years, and then bought for as long as that class is built and maintained. It is very hard to displace a supplier mid-programme, and the incentive to try is low relative to the risk.

The profitability comparison against the naval and defence cohort makes the point without much need for interpretation. Trailing operating margin runs 17.6%. BWXT, the closest naval-nuclear comparison, earns 12.3% on $3.376 billion of revenue. GD earns 10.2% on $53.808 billion, HII 5.1% on $12.849 billion, DRS 9.9% on $3.695 billion, LHX 10.2% on $38.694 billion. Every prime contractor in that list is larger and every one of them earns less on the sales dollar. The names that earn more, HEI at 23.5% and TDG at 46.5%, are aftermarket aerospace businesses rather than shipbuilding suppliers. This company is sitting on the profitable side of the defence supply chain rather than the volume side.

The financing has stayed conservative through all of it. Interest expense for 2025 came to $43 million, down 4% on the year after a repayment, against operating profit of $611.3 million over the trailing twelve months. Roughly seven cents of every dollar of operating profit goes to lenders. Borrowings less liquid assets run about 814 million on the funded-debt build, or about 1.04 billion once lease obligations are counted with them. Share count has drifted down roughly 1.1% a year across four years. None of that is dramatic, which is rather the point: the growth has been funded out of the business rather than out of the balance sheet.

Bear Case

Two future revenue streams are carrying most of the weight in this price, and neither of them is under the company's control. The first is commercial nuclear power. The 10-K states the dependency directly: "Market demand for, and our ability to supply products and services to the commercial nuclear industry is dependent on the continued operation of nuclear power plants globally", and it names the specific fragility, that "delays in the development of small modular reactors, could adversely affect our results of operations or future outlook". Small modular reactors are a technology whose commercial deployment schedule has moved repeatedly and is set by regulators, utilities and financiers rather than by suppliers. The second stream is the naval build rate, which is decided in an appropriations process. The filing is blunt about what that means for revenue already booked: "The U.S. Government may unilaterally modify or cancel its contracts".

That matters more than usual because of what is being paid. The price requires operating profit to compound at the ceiling of what the business can self-fund for roughly nine years. Only about 16% of comparable fast-growers have sustained a run of that length, and the multiple these shares carry sits at the very top of their peer distribution, well beyond the upper quartile. A demand of that shape does not need a disaster to disappoint. It needs one of those two streams to arrive two or three years later than assumed, which is a thing that happens to nuclear projects and defence programmes routinely.

The backlog does not provide the reassurance the multiple implies. Total backlog was approximately $4.1 billion at the end of December 2025 against annual revenue near 3.61 billion, so a little over a year of work is booked, and the filing adds its own qualifier: "Backlog is subject to fluctuations and is not necessarily indicative of future sales". In the prior fiscal year, new orders in one segment "decreased $82 million as compared to the prior year, primarily due to the timing of orders on aerospace and ground defense equipment". Orders in this business arrive lumpy, and a company priced for nine years of uninterrupted compounding gets no credit for lumpiness.

Commercial aerospace is the third exposure, and it is straightforwardly cyclical. The filing ties growth there "to the anticipated growth in aircraft production rates" on specific narrow-body and wide-body programmes, and lists among the risks labour strikes at a major airframer, geopolitical conflict, and cost inflation. That segment is 12% of revenue. It is not the thesis, but it is the piece most likely to move first and fastest against the company in a downturn.

Underneath all of it, the accounting value of the equity is thin relative to the price. Book value works out to about $71.02 a share against $750.52 in the market. That gap is the correct outcome for an asset-light business earning strong returns on capital, and it is also the reason the downside has no floor to speak of. When a price rests entirely on the durability of future earnings, and the earnings-power and asset-value methods both land far beneath it, the whole position depends on the durability holding. There is nothing else beneath it to catch the fall.

Valuation

Nine years is the number to hold on to. That is roughly how long today's price requires this company's operating profit to keep compounding at the ceiling of what it can fund from its own cash flow before the arithmetic stops working. The pace itself is not the demanding part; this business has recently delivered it. The persistence is. Around 16% of comparable fast-growers have historically kept a run going that long, and the assumption is sensitive besides: each percentage point of growth moves the required horizon by about two years, so the answer travels a long way on inputs nobody can observe in advance.

Notably, the price does not require a better margin than the company already earns. The margin embedded in it sits below the 17.6% the trailing year produced. So the bet is purely on duration, which is a cleaner question than most: not whether this business can get better, but whether it can stay this good for the better part of a decade.

Of the four families of method applied here, only the forward-growth approaches reach $750.52. Asset value, earnings power and peer multiples all land well beneath it, and the distances are not small. Book value per share is $71.02. Capitalize the trailing $13.65 of earnings per share at a shareholder's required return and the result is a fraction of the quote. Apply the sector's enterprise-value-to-EBITDA reference of twelve to the 0.79 billion of EBITDA the business produced and the same thing happens. Even the peer-multiple approach that blends a trailing price-to-earnings figure near 54 against a sector reference near 18 settles at 28.93, which still leaves the price roughly 80% above where that comparison lands. Only a model that projects the recent 12% growth rate forward and holds the exit multiple flat at today's 36.7 in its base case, compressing to 34.7 in the bear scenario and expanding to 38.7 in the bull, arrives anywhere near the current level.

Cohort position confirms rather than softens that read. The multiple these shares carry sits at the very top of the range their peers occupy, well beyond the upper quartile. The operating margin partly earns it: 17.6% on a trailing basis against BWXT at 12.3% on $3.376 billion of revenue, GD at 10.2% on $53.808 billion, DRS at 9.9% on $3.695 billion and HII at 5.1% on $12.849 billion. The company is genuinely more profitable than the primes it supplies. Whether it is that much more profitable is the question the top-of-range multiple asks.

The balance sheet is the part of this file with no drama in it. Interest expense for 2025 was $43 million against trailing operating profit of $611.3 million, and borrowings net of liquid assets run about 814 million on the funded-debt build, or about 1.04 billion once lease commitments are counted with them. Free cash flow of $590.8 million covers all of that several times over, and the share count has come down about 1.1% a year. Solvency simply is not the variable here. The variable is time, and the price has already spent nine years of it.

Catalysts

Second quarter results are due after the close on August 5, 2026. The May report raised full-year guidance for sales, operating margin and free cash flow at once, which sets a specific bar for August: a company priced for many years of compounding gets very little credit for meeting a raised number and a great deal of punishment for missing it. The line worth watching is Naval and Power, which grew 20.8% in the March quarter and is now large enough that the consolidated growth rate largely follows it.

Capital is going into that same segment. On July 1, 2026 the company announced an 80 million dollar multi-year investment to expand its Cheswick, Pennsylvania operations. Capacity spending in naval and nuclear work is a slow signal but an informative one, because the equipment is qualified to programmes years before it ships and the investment is not easily redirected. It tells you what management expects the order book to look like well past the current backlog, which stood at roughly $4.1 billion at the end of December.

Broker views moved up ahead of the print without agreeing on much. Morgan Stanley raised its target to $860 from $760 on June 24 with an overweight rating, and Stifel raised its target to $768 from $724 on June 19 while keeping a hold. The spread between those two is the disagreement in miniature: both accept the operating story, and they differ on how many years of it the current price has already collected. The trailing and asset-based measures described above answer only the first half of that question.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Aerospace & Industrial (reported)

• MOG-A (MOOG Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …in aerospace and defense and industrial markets. We have four operating segments: Space and Defense, Military Aircraft, Commercial Aircraft and Industrial. Additional information describing the business and comparative segment revenues, operating profits and related financial information for 2025, 2024 and 2023 are…
• FY2025 10-K: …and existing fleets. Commercial Aircraft. We design, manufacture and integrate primary and secondary flight-critical control systems and products for various commercial aircraft including widebody, narrowbody, business jets and regional jets for both OEM and aftermarket customers. Our large commercial production…
• HEI (HEICO CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …and business aircraft, aircraft engines and related components and equipment. Due in large part to our established industry presence, we enjoy strong customer relations, name recognition and repeat business. We sell our products to a broad customer base consisting of domestic and foreign commercial and cargo…
• FY2025 10-K: …misappropriation or obsolescence from occurring by developing new techniques and improving existing methods and processes, which we will continue on an ongoing basis as dictated by the technological needs of our business. We believe that, based on our competitive pricing, reputation for high quality, short lead time…
• TDG (TransDigm Group Incorporated)
• FY2025 10-K: ; (5) defense OEMs; (6) system suppliers; and (7) various other industrial customers. Our top ten customers for fiscal year 2025 accounted for approximately 40% of our net sales. Products supplied to many of our customers are used on multiple platforms. None of our customers individually accounted for greater than 10%…
• FY2025 10-K: …following table sets forth, for the periods indicated, certain financial information by reportable segment, which includes a reconciliation of EBITDA As Defined to consolidated income from continuing operations before income taxes (in millions): Fiscal Year Ended September 30, 2025 Power & Control Airframe…
• WWD (WOODWARD, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …technology and design, product performance, and conformity with customer specifications. Additional factors are customer service and support, including on-time delivery and customer partnering, product quality, price, reputation, and local presence. Both of our segments operate in uniquely competitive environments.…
• FY2025 10-K: …with our competitors through ownership or joint venture agreements. For example, Pratt & Whitney, one of our customers, is affiliated with RTX Corporation, one of our competitors. Similarly, GE Aerospace has a joint venture with Parker Hannifin for the supply of fuel nozzles. We have also partnered with our customers…
• TXT (Textron Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …training on Bell-owned aircraft and certified Full Flight Simulators and Flight Training Devices, as well as maintenance training on Bell's production representative maintenance training devices. Textron Systems Segment The businesses in our Textron Systems segment develop, manufacture and integrate a variety of…
• FY2025 10-K: …txt:ManufacturingGroupMember txt:IndustrialMember 2024-12-28 0000217346 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember txt:ManufacturingGroupMember txt:IndustrialMember 2024-12-29 2026-01-03 0000217346 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember txt:ManufacturingGroupMember txt:IndustrialMember 2023-12-31 2024-12-28 0000217346…
• ITT (ITT INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and artificial intelligence continue to reshape manufacturing and industrial solutions. We view this shift as an opportunity to further enhance efficiency, reliability, and customer value but it also exposes us to additional cyber related risks and the possibility 30 that our competitors are able to adapt and utilize…
• FY2025 10-K: …engineered cable assemblies for avionics, sensors, communications and networking applications that are highly complementary to ITT's existing connector portfolio. Brands include kSARIA, Compulink, The Charles E. Gillman Company, TopFlite Components, and Co-Operative Industries Aerospace and Defense (CIA&D). Control…
• PH (PARKER-HANNIFIN CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …and custom products are also used in the replacement of original products. We market our Diversified Industrial Segment products primarily through field sales employees and independent distributors located throughout the world. Aerospace Systems Segment . Our Aerospace Systems Segment products are used in commercial…
• FY2025 10-K: …we manufacture and sell. In the Diversified Industrial Segment, Parker competes based on product quality and innovation, customer experience, manufacturing and distribution capability, aftermarket support, and price competitiveness. We believe that we are one of the market leaders in most of the major markets for our…

Defense Electronics (reported)

• MRCY (MERCURY SYSTEMS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …by the growing demand for domestically designed, sourced and manufactured electronics for critical aerospace, defense and intelligence applications. Our primary market positioning is centered on making commercially available technologies profoundly more accessible to the aerospace and defense sector, specifically as…
• FY2025 10-K: …product, where the customer evaluates alternative technologies and design approaches. We work with defense prime contractors as well as directly with the DoD. We help drive subsystem development and deployment in both classified and unclassified environments. The principal competitive factors in our market are…
• KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …property and past performance qualifications and by offering a wider range of comprehensive low-cost technology leading and proven products and solutions compared to our competitors. In regard to areas of specialization, our product and solution offerings include the manufacturing of specialized defense electronics;…
• FY2025 10-K: …address these threats for and with our customers and partners is recognized in the industry. We believe that the Company's military grade hardware, software and solution offerings, including jet unmanned aerial drones, rocket and hypersonic systems, C5ISR and air defense systems, jet engine and propulsion systems for…
• DRS (Leonardo DRS, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …ship propulsion systems, motors and variable frequency drives, force protection systems, and transportation and logistics systems for the U.S. military and allied defense customers. DRS is a leading provider of next-generation electrical propulsion systems for the U.S. Navy. We provide power conversion, control,…
• FY2025 10-K: …and power generation and management are central to these priorities. Demand for our technologies is concentrated in areas of sustained priority for the DoW, including counter‑unmanned aircraft systems ("C-UAS"), advanced infrared sensing, network computing, and electric power and propulsion for next generation navy…
• LHX (L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …of urgently needed capabilities. These changes are designed to expand competition, incentivize private investment, and enhance supply chain resilience, which may result in new opportunities and requirements for defense contractors, as well as increased emphasis on rapid innovation and responsiveness in fulfilling…
• FY2025 10-K: …in-service support; missionization prototyping; and naval integration. Targeting & Sensor Systems ("TSS") : Multi-domain, multi-spectral electro-optical ("EO") and infrared ("IR") sensor systems supporting ISR and target acquisition missions; manufacturing of specialty laser and filter glass materials, laser range…
• ESLT (ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD)
• FY2025 20-F: …for constant value creation, exploring new opportunities and scalable thinking to achieve continuous growth. 21 Recent Developments In recent years the Company has grown significantly, including in terms of our order backlog, revenues, number of employees and large-scale programs. The Company has also broadened its…
• FY2025 20-F: …operational needs of our customers, achieving reduced time to market and increasing affordability. We emphasize improving existing systems and products and developing new ones using emerging or existing technologies, including an increasing use of open source software and generative AI. Our R&D projects relate to…
• AVAV (AEROVIRONMENT, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Israeli Aircraft Industries. ​ The defense and technology markets for the C-UAS and Precision Strike products and solutions are highly competitive, evolving with rapid technological advancements and shifting customer needs. Competitors in the LMS market include Textron Inc., RTX Corporation, Lockheed Martin…
• FY2025 10-K: …capabilities. We evaluate each opportunity independently and against other investment opportunities, to determine its relative cost, timing and potential for generation of returns. This process helps us make informed decisions regarding potential growth capital requirements. It also supports our allocation of…
• TDY (TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …systems engineering and integration, advanced technology application, software development and manufacturing solutions for defense, space, environmental and energy applications. Business segment results include net sales and operating income by segment but excludes corporate office expenses. Corporate expense…
• FY2025 10-K: Operating income $ 262.1 $ 221.7 $ 40.4 18.2% Cost of sales % of net sales 59.0 % 56.8 % 2.2% Selling, general and administrative expenses % of net sales 11.7 % 11.8 % (0.1)% Research and development expense % of net sales 2.8 % 2.8 % -% Acquired intangible asset amortization % of net sales 1.7 % 0.1 % 1.6% Operating…

Naval & Power (reported)

• BWXT (BWX Technologies Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: …from operations or by raising additional capital through debt, equity or some combination thereof. Government Operations Through this segment, we engineer, design and manufacture precision naval nuclear components, reactors and nuclear fuel for the U.S. Department of Energy ("DOE")/National Nuclear Security…
• FY2025 10-K: …manufacturing complexes maintained by the DOE, NNSA and other federal agencies. The Government Operations segment is also a leader in the development of advanced nuclear reactors for a variety of power and propulsion applications in the space and terrestrial domains. U.S. Government customers for these applications…
• FLS (FLOWSERVE CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …to our realignment activities and an increase of $9.8 million of acquisition and integration 38 costs and amortization of step-up in value of acquired inventories and acquisition related intangibles assets associated with the MOGAS acquisition, partially offset by the favorable impact of previously implemented sales…
• FY2025 10-K: …Results of Operations ("MD&A"): • FPD designs, manufactures, pretests, distributes, and services highly custom engineered pumps, pre-configured industrial pumps, pump systems, mechanical seals, auxiliary systems and replacement parts and related services; and • FCD designs, manufactures, and distributes a broad…
• DCO (DUCOMMUN INCORPORATED)
• FY2025 10-K: …from commercial aircraft could be affected as a result of 7 Table of Contents changes in new aircraft orders, or the cancellation or deferral by airlines of purchases of ordered aircraft. Further, our revenues from commercial aircraft programs could be affected by changes in our customers' inventory levels and…
• FY2025 10-K: …storage magazines and custom gun mounts for fixed-wing and rotary-wing military aircraft and military ground vehicles. Seals include magnetic, mechanical and lip seals and O- 5 Table of Contents rings for various military and industrial applications. Aerodynamic systems include engineered structural components for…
• GD (GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …of the following: Ship construction $ 2,213 Aircraft manufacturing 1,602 Weapon systems and munitions 258 International military vehicles 194 Other, net 119 Total increase $ 4,386 Ship construction revenue was up due primarily to higher volume on submarine programs. Aircraft manufacturing revenue increased due to…
• FY2025 10-K: S. defense industrial base. In addition to Navy ships, we have designed and built ocean-going Jones Act ships for commercial customers. Marine Systems consists of three business units - Electric Boat, Bath Iron Works and NASSCO. In support of our Navy customer's significant increase in demand for submarines and…
• HII (HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …News segment is designing and constructing nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines, and the refueling and overhaul and the inactivation of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. Our Newport News shipyard is located on approximately 550 acres near the mouth of the James River, which adjoins the Chesapeake Bay.…
• FY2025 10-K: …U.S. defense spending priorities that reduce the demand for the types of ships we build and services we provide increase our exposure to market competition risk. If we are unable to compete successfully, we may generate lower revenues and lose market share, which would negatively impact our financial condition,…
• CIR (CIR)
• (no filing in the citation store)

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.