Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS): what the price requires
At today's price, Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS) is priced for +7.5% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CTOS
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | CTOS |
| Company | Custom Truck One Source, Inc. |
| Current price | $10.65/sh |
| Composition | United States 98% / Canada 2% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 3.9% |
| Operating margin (mid-cycle) | 12.8% |
| Margin compression implied | -8.9pp |
| Trailing margin (depressed year) | 5.6% |
| Implied growth | 7.5% |
| Multiple paid | 17x mid-cycle operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 7, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.6% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~6.6pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | +0.34σ |
| cohort percentile (of 225 peers) | 31 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore requires assumptions beyond what those standard frames encode.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 3.16x | 2 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.96x | 2 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.73x | 2 | expensive |
| Growth | — | 0 | — |
Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=6)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $44.29 | 0.24x | no | FCF base $0.3B, growth 10% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 7.0%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $18.09 | 0.59x | no | Exit EV/EBITDA: 17.6x / 19.6x / 21.6x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $21.88 | 0.49x | yes | P/S fallback (negative EPS): Sector P/S 2.5x × TTM revenue — excluded from consensus |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $3.55 | 3.00x | yes | Reference only (book value floor): BV/sh $3.55, ROE negative |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $3.20 | 3.33x | yes | Reference only (book value with convergence): BV/sh $3.55, ROE converges to ke |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $9.33 | 1.14x | no | Rev $2.0B, growth 10% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.0x / 1.2x / 1.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $0.00 | — | no | Negative/zero EPS — earnings-based value floored at $0 |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $0.01 | 1065.00x | no | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.10B × (1−21%) / WACC 7.0% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Graham Number | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $3.58 | 2.97x | yes | EBITDA $0.21B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $5.62 | 1.90x | yes | FCF $278.3M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $5.27 | 2.02x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.27B (FCF $0.28B − SBC $0.01B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $0.49 | 21.73x | yes | BV $3.55 × (ROIC 1.0% / WACC 7.0%) (excluded from median) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $21.88 | 0.49x | no | Revenue $1.98B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $1.6b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 8.53x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 6.74x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -2.1% |
| Burning cash | no |
Leverage and coverage are computed on normalized mid-cycle operating income (mid-cycle margin 12.8%); the trailing year was depressed.
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
At $11.27 the price pays about 18x mid-cycle operating income, which implies roughly 9.5% annual operating-profit growth for five years. Trailing earnings are depressed by the cycle, so the inversion uses through-the-cycle margins, and the implied pace reads as within range.
This is a capital-heavy specialty-equipment rental and sales business with a fleet of more than 10,400 units. Net debt of about $1.6 billion runs near 6.4x operating income, the dominant feature of the story, and the company is still posting small net losses even as cash flow improves.
Q1 2026 beat: record revenue of $461.6 million up 9.3%, adjusted EBITDA up 33% to $98 million, and fleet utilization of 81.4%. Management raised full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance to $415 to $440 million on strong transmission, distribution, and datacenter demand.
Bull Case
Specialty-equipment rental is a sector where the asset is the fleet and the economics turn on utilization, and Custom Truck sits in front of one of the strongest demand tailwinds in the industrial economy. The company rents, sells, and services the specialized vocational trucks that build and maintain the electric grid: bucket trucks, digger derricks, cranes, and the like. As of December 31, 2025, the rental fleet comprised more than 10,400 units, the majority of which can be used across a variety of end markets (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001709682-26-000008). That cross-market flexibility is what lets the fleet chase demand, and right now demand is concentrated exactly where Custom Truck is strongest. Analysts at DA Davidson pointed to electrical and datacenter end markets providing a robust demand environment, with particular strength in transmission and distribution, the work of expanding and hardening the power grid.
The Q1 2026 results show the model inflecting. Revenue hit a record $461.6 million, up 9.3%, with the rental-led ERS segment growing 16% to $194 million, and adjusted EBITDA jumped 33% to $98 million. Fleet utilization reached 81.4%, a healthy level for this kind of equipment, and the net loss narrowed to $4.1 million from a wider figure. The loss-per-share of $0.02 beat the expected $0.06. The business is a uniquely diversified one-stop platform, owning new-equipment sales, used sales, rental, and parts and service under one roof, which lets it monetize a unit across its whole life rather than just the rental window.
Management is leaning into the strength. It raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $415 to $440 million and reaffirmed consolidated revenue growth of 3% to 9%, and the analyst response was a wave of target increases, with DA Davidson lifting to $12 from $8.50 and Stifel to $11 from $8. The priced-in roughly 9.5% growth assumption is within what the company has recently delivered, computed on through-the-cycle rather than trough margins, so the bull case does not require a heroic re-rating. It requires the grid-investment supercycle to keep filling the fleet, utilization to hold in the low 80s, and the heavy debt to amortize as EBITDA grows. On that path, a sub-$12 stock against a $415-million-plus EBITDA base is reasonable.
Bear Case
The advantage that looks defensible here, the diversified one-stop platform, is being chipped away on two fronts: scale competition above and a balance sheet that limits the company's freedom to respond. The leverage is the dominant fact. Net debt of about $1.6 billion runs near 6.4x trailing operating income, and the filing itself lists the consequences of that indebtedness: it possibly limits the company's ability to withstand competitive pressures and places it at a competitive disadvantage compared with competitors that carry less debt (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001709682-26-000008). Those competitors include United Rentals, a far larger and better-capitalized operator that has been pushing into specialty fleets. When the bigger player can buy more fleet, cut rental rates in a soft patch, and outwait a smaller rival, the moat that comes from being a one-stop shop narrows.
The business is also genuinely cyclical and capital-hungry, and the rental fleet is a depreciating asset that must be continuously replenished. The reported numbers lean on adjustments: management presents results that strip out merger-related and integration costs, the impact of certain rental contracts accounted for as sales-type leases under GAAP, and stock compensation (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001709682-26-000008). On a clean GAAP basis the company is still losing money, with a $4.1 million net loss in a quarter it called a record. The valuation X-ray reflects the fragility: most methods are book-value-floor or reference-only because the company is unprofitable, and the asset-based reads cluster near $3 to $4 per share, well below the $11 price. The ROIC-justified book-value method lands under $1.
The demand story, while real today, is the kind that can reverse fast. Grid and datacenter capital spending is a tailwind now, but it is project-driven and tied to utility budgets, interest rates, and policy. If T&D spending pauses, utilization drops, and a 6.4x-levered balance sheet meets a rental-rate downturn at the same time, the equity, which sits behind $1.6 billion of debt, is the first thing to compress. The inversion's roughly 9.5% growth assumption looks modest, but it is solved on normalized margins; if the cycle turns before the debt comes down, the conservative asset methods near book value are the honest read and the downside is substantial.
Valuation
Invert the price first, with a caveat that matters here: trailing earnings are depressed by the cycle, so the inversion uses the company's own through-the-cycle margins on current revenue rather than the trough quarter. On that basis, at $11.27 (June 27, 2026) the market pays about 18x normalized operating income, which solves to roughly 9.5% annual operating-profit growth over five years, computed at an 8.8% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth. That implied pace is within what Custom Truck has recently delivered, so the assumption reads as within range, with the comparison data thin enough that the label should be taken directionally. Each one-point move in the cost of capital shifts the required growth by about 6.7 points.
The valuation X-ray is unusual because the company is unprofitable on a GAAP basis, so most methods are reference-only book-value floors. The asset methods land near $3 to $4 per share, the EV/EBITDA relative read near $3.58, and the FCF-yield method near $5.62, all well below the $11.27 price. The only method that lands above the price is a price-to-sales fallback at about $22, which the engine excludes from the consensus precisely because it is a crude substitute for a negative-EPS company.
The synthesis is that the standard frames cannot value this business cleanly because it is a levered, currently-unprofitable rental platform mid-cycle. The bull read leans on EBITDA and normalized margins, where roughly $415 to $440 million of guided 2026 EBITDA against a sub-$12 stock looks defensible. The bear read leans on the book-value floors near $3 to $4 and the GAAP losses. The market is paying for the EBITDA trajectory and the grid-demand tailwind, not for current earnings. Wall Street targets cluster near $9.89 with a high of $13, bracketing the current price, which captures the disagreement: a name where the verdict depends on whether the normalized earnings power materializes before the debt or the cycle bites.
Catalysts
The defining recent event was Q1 2026 results reported April 28, 2026: record revenue of $461.6 million, up 9.3%, with adjusted EBITDA up 33% to $98 million, a narrowed net loss of $4.1 million, and a loss per share of $0.02 that beat the expected $0.06. Fleet utilization was 81.4% and ending original equipment cost was about $1.655 billion. The rental-led ERS segment grew third-party revenue 16% to $194 million, while the equipment-sales TES segment grew 5% to $268 million. On the strength of the quarter, management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $415 to $440 million and reaffirmed 3% to 9% consolidated revenue growth. Whether utilization and rental rates hold through the year is the key operating signal.
The structural catalyst is grid investment. Analysts tie Custom Truck's outlook directly to transmission and distribution spending, electrical infrastructure, and datacenter expansion, the demand that drives utilities to buy and rent the specialized trucks that build the grid. DA Davidson raised its target to $12 from $8.50 and Stifel to $11 from $8 on that demand environment, and the broader analyst view skews bullish, with roughly eight buys, one hold, and two sells, and targets ranging from about $8 to $13 around a $9.89 consensus. Deleveraging is the other thing to watch: as guided EBITDA grows against $1.6 billion of net debt, falling leverage would re-rate the equity, while any pause in grid capital spending would do the opposite. The next earnings report and any update on T&D demand and fleet utilization are the events most likely to move the thesis.
Sources: CTOS Q1 2026 earnings (Trailer Body Builders), CTOS Q1 2026 10-Q (StockTitan), DA Davidson raises CTOS target (Investing.com), CTOS analyst ratings (Benzinga).
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Equipment Rental Solutions (ERS) / Truck and Equipment Sales (TES) (reported)
- URI (United Rentals, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- WSC (WILLSCOT HOLDINGS CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- MGRC (McGRATH RENTCORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Aftermarket Parts and Services (APS) (reported)
- DXPE (DXP Enterprises, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AIT (APPLIED INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGIES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GTES (Gates Industrial Corporation plc)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- DORM (Dorman Products, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GPC (GENUINE PARTS CO)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.