CARLISLE COMPANIES INCORPORATED (CSL): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $352.14, CARLISLE COMPANIES INCORPORATED (CSL) is priced for +7.9% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-25.
Generated: 2026-09-07 · Exported: 2026-09-09 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CSL
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | CSL |
| Company | CARLISLE COMPANIES INCORPORATED |
| Sector / Industry | Consumer Cyclical |
| Current price | $352.14/sh |
| Composition | Non-residential construction 80% / Residential construction 17% / Other 3% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 13.8% |
| Operating margin today | 19.9% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -6.1pp |
| Implied growth | 7.9% |
| Multiple paid | 16x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 9% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.17σ |
| cohort percentile (of 212 peers) | 43 |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.79x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.91x | 4 | expensive |
| Relative | — | 0 | — |
| Growth | 0.95x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.8%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=12)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $371.18 | 0.95x | yes | FCF base $0.9B, growth 1% (input: historical growth), terminal g 1.4%, WACC 7.8%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $436.00 | 0.81x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 11.4x / 13.4x / 15.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | — | — | no | P/E 18x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 15.2x / 18.0x / 20.8x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 12x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $197.22 | 1.79x | yes | BV/sh $40.72, ROE (TTM) 44.8%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $503.53 | 0.70x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $308.25 | 1.14x | yes | Rev $5.1B, growth 1% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.3x / 2.7x / 3.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $267.35 | 1.32x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $1.05B × (1−23%) / WACC 7.8% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $315.97 | 1.11x | yes | BV $40.72 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 44.8% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $126.41 | 2.79x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $17.44 × BVPS $40.72) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | EBITDA $1.21B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $179.76 | 1.96x | yes | FCF $866.6M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $170.72 | 2.06x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.83B (FCF $0.87B − SBC $0.03B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $14.62 | 24.09x | yes | EPS $17.44 × (8.5 + 2×-4.9%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $37.00 | 9.52x | yes | BV $40.72 × (ROIC 7.1% / WACC 7.8%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | Revenue $5.10B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $188.54 | 1.87x | yes | EPS $17.44 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Materials (CCM) | operating | enterprise | $3.7b | $997.2m operating-income | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies (CWT) | operating | enterprise | $1.3b | $101.9m operating-income | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $2.2b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 2.83x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 2.19x |
| Interest coverage | 9.7x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -6.3% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- Two roofing distributors buy a third of everything Carlisle sells: the 10-K discloses that in 2025 CCM's two largest customers represented 33% of the Company's consolidated revenues, with Beacon Roofing Supply at about 16.7% and ABC Supply at about 16.3%.
- The share count has been shrinking about 6.1% a year over the past four years, which is where a good deal of the per-share progress has come from while end-market volumes have been soft.
- Second-quarter results are due July 29, 2026, and the live question is the reported unsolicited approach to a much larger, much lower-margin competitor.
Bull Case
Roughly six percent of the shares disappear every year. Over the four years to March 2026 the count has come down about 6.1% annually, funded out of operating cash rather than borrowing, with interest covered about 12.6 times over. That is the sort of capital allocation that only works if the underlying business throws off far more cash than it needs, and Carlisle's does. The trailing operating margin runs about 20.1%, which in this cohort is high: AWI is the only comparable at a better level, at 25.9%, while BLD sits at 14.0%, IBP at 12.7% and AAON at 10.4%.
The margin comes from a specific place. Carlisle sells the membrane, insulation and sealing systems that keep water out of commercial buildings, and the 10-K frames the strategy around what it calls the Carlisle Operating System, a manufacturing and product-rationalization program the company describes as ingrained across the business under its Vision 2030 plan. Concentrating on a narrow band of building-envelope products, rather than diversifying into everything a contractor might buy, is what allows a manufacturer of physical goods to earn software-adjacent returns on capital while its customers work on single-digit margins.
Demand has a structural leg the cycle does not touch. Commercial roofs get replaced whether or not anyone is putting up new buildings, and the company describes its market as supported by strong, long-term fundamentals including the demand for energy-efficient solutions in North America, which it calls the most attractive building-products market globally. Replacement work is a maintenance obligation for a building owner, not a discretionary purchase, and the energy-code direction adds specification content to each replacement rather than merely repeating the last one.
The valuation reflects a market that is not enthusiastic. The price sits in the lower half of the multiple range for its peer group, and the assumption embedded in it, operating profit growing around 8.1% a year for five years, is below the pace the company's own operating profit has averaged recently. That combination is the least demanding version of a bull case: it does not need a re-rating or a new business line, just a building-products cycle that stops getting worse while the buyback keeps compressing the share count against it.
Bear Case
Look closely at where the per-share progress is coming from. Revenue has been drifting backwards, not forwards, and the count of shares has been falling about 6.1% a year. Shrink the denominator fast enough and the numbers per share improve even when the business does not, which is a legitimate way to return capital and a poor foundation for a growth assumption. Today's price asks operating profit to compound around 8.1% a year for five years. Buybacks cannot supply that; they move earnings per share, not operating profit.
Customer concentration is where the fragility is genuinely structural, and the filing does not soften it. Beacon Roofing Supply accounted for approximately 16.7% of consolidated revenues in 2025 and ABC Supply for approximately 16.3%, together the two largest customers represented 33% of the Company's consolidated revenues, and the 10-K states plainly that The loss of either of these customers could have a material adverse effect on the Company's consolidated revenues and operating income. Two distributors standing between a manufacturer and its end market is a permanent negotiation about price, conducted by counterparties who know exactly how much of the factory they fill.
The cycle underneath is not cooperating either. The company acknowledges its segments are susceptible to downturns in the commercial construction industry, particularly in the construction repair and replacement sectors, and the cohort shows what that looks like in practice: OC, the largest name in the comparison group, ran a 0.7% operating margin on revenue that fell 5.1%, and GFF and FBIN both saw revenue decline. A repair-and-replacement business is more defensive than new construction. It is not immune, and building owners defer roofs when money is expensive.
Then there is the acquisition question, which has just become concrete. The 10-K already flags that The Company's growth strategy is partially dependent on the acquisition and successful integration of other businesses. In late June the Wall Street Journal reported that Carlisle had made unsolicited offers for Owens Corning at a significant premium. Set aside whether the approach succeeds. A company whose entire investment case rests on a 20.1% operating margin, earned by staying narrow, pursuing a target several times its size that currently converts revenue into almost no operating profit is a material change in what the shareholder owns. The margin profile that justifies the multiple is precisely the thing a transaction of that shape would dilute.
The static methods have been saying something similar for a while. Both the asset-value approaches and the earnings-power approaches land well below the current price, which sits about 76% above where the asset-value methods land and about 79% above the earnings-power ones. Only peer comparison and forward-growth projection reach today's level. For a manufacturer with a concentrated customer base in a soft cycle, being defended mainly by what other people pay for similar companies is a thinner support than it looks.
Valuation
The requirement embedded in this price is unusually modest for a report of this kind. At $336.22 the market is paying roughly 16 times what the business earns before interest and tax, and inverting that gives operating profit growth of about 8.1% a year for five years. Carlisle's own operating profit has averaged a faster pace than that in recent years, and the multiple sits in the lower half of its peer group's range. Keep the figure approximate, since it is one solve under fixed assumptions, but the direction is clear enough: the market is not asking for heroics here.
What it is asking for is stability in the discount rate, and that is where the fragility hides. Each additional percentage point of cost of capital moves the implied growth requirement by roughly 6.3 percentage points. For a cyclical manufacturer whose customers borrow to fund the projects that generate its orders, the rate environment is not a background variable. It sets both the numerator and the denominator, and a modest repricing of risk turns an undemanding assumption into a stretching one without a single order being lost.
The methods disagree in a familiar pattern for a good business at a full-but-not-extreme price. Peer comparison and the forward-growth approaches both reach today's level, the first landing close underneath it and the second essentially at it. The asset-value and earnings-power approaches land well below: the price sits about 76% above the asset-value methods and about 79% above the earnings-power methods. The gap between those two groups is the market paying for the margin structure to persist rather than mean-revert, since the earnings-power calculation credits the average profit of the last five years and no growth at all.
Where peers sharpen the picture is on margin rather than multiple. Carlisle's trailing operating margin of about 20.1% is second in its cohort only to AWI at 25.9%, and sits far above OC at 0.7%, CARR at 8.2% and GFF at 8.3%. That spread is the whole investment case in one line: the same end markets, the same weather, very different conversion of revenue into profit. Anything that narrows the spread, whether a soft cycle, distributor pressure, or an acquisition of a lower-margin business, removes the reason the multiple is where it is.
The balance sheet is not the constraint. Interest is covered about 12.6 times, liquid assets sit near 771 million dollars, and the company has funded a substantial buyback and a rising dividend out of operations, with the most recent declared payment made on March 2, 2026 to holders of record in February. This is a well-run cash generator whose downside is about earnings power rather than solvency, and whose price today is a bet that a 20% operating margin is a permanent feature rather than the top of a cycle.
Catalysts
Second-quarter results are due on July 29, 2026, a date the company confirmed in mid-July. The first quarter, reported April 23, 2026, delivered Q1 2026 earnings per share of $3.63 against a consensus of $3.33 on quarterly revenue of about $1.05 billion, so the recent record is one of beating a lowered bar rather than growing into a rising one. The disclosure that matters most in the July print is volume commentary from the commercial roofing channel, since two distributors account for the bulk of what moves through it.
The dominant item is corporate rather than operational. The Wall Street Journal reported in late June that Carlisle had made unsolicited acquisition offers for Owens Corning at a significant premium. Nothing has been signed publicly, and an unsolicited approach can end in silence as easily as in a deal. But the target is several times Carlisle's revenue base and currently earns a fraction of its margin, so a transaction would reshape the company far more than any quarter will. Management commentary on capital priorities at the July call is therefore the thing to listen for, ahead of the segment numbers.
Sell-side positioning has drifted in both directions this year. Goldman Sachs added the stock to its US Conviction List in the spring, arguing for a sales inflection during 2026. More recently Truist and Baird each trimmed their targets while leaving their ratings unchanged, in early and mid July respectively. The pattern of maintained ratings with lower numbers is what analysts do when the thesis is intact and the timing has slipped, which is a fair summary of where the building-products cycle sits.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Construction Materials (CCM) (reported)
- OC (Owens Corning)
- FY2025 10-K: …from those projected in forward-looking statements. The Company maintains processes that aim to manage enterprise risks through identification and mitigation of those risks. Despite our efforts, we may fail to identify or mitigate certain risks, which could have a material and adverse impact on our business,…
- FY2025 10-K: 1 - Business - Environmental Control" for information on costs related to environmental remediation. To the extent that the required remediation procedures or timing of those procedures change, additional contamination is identified, or the financial condition of other potentially responsible parties is adversely…
- CARR (CARRIER GLOBAL CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …on our competitive position, results of operations, cash flows or financial condition. 17 Table of Contents We use a variety of raw materials, supplier-provided parts, finished goods, and third-party service providers in our business. The ability of suppliers to deliver materials, parts, components, finished goods,…
- FY2025 10-K: Climate Solutions Americas ("CSA"), Climate Solutions Europe ("CSE"), Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa ("CSAME") and Climate Solutions Transportation ("CST"). Each respective segment's major products, services and distribution methods are as follows: The Climate Solutions Americas, Climate…
- AAON (AAON, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …highly customized nature of many of the Company's products and each product not having an alternative use to the Company without significant costs to the Company, the Company recognizes revenue over time as progress is made toward satisfying the performance obligations of each contract. The Company has formal…
- FY2025 10-K: …plc), York Light Commercial (Bosch Home Comfort Group), Johnson Controls (Johnson Controls International PLC), Carrier (Carrier Global Corporation), and Daikin (Daikin Industries). Our thermal management products primarily compete with Vertiv (Vertiv Holdings Co.), STULZ (STULZ Air Technology Systems, Inc.), Munters,…
- AWI (ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …In addition, claims and investigations may arise related to patent infringement, customer relationships, commercial contracts, antitrust or competition law requirements, employment matters, employee benefits issues, and other compliance and regulatory matters, including anti-corruption and anti-bribery matters. While…
- FY2025 10-K: …Specialties or Unallocated Corporate segment, including all property and related depreciation associated with our Lancaster, Pennsylvania headquarters. Operating results for the Mineral Fiber segment include a significant majority of allocated Corporate administrative expenses that represent a reasonable allocation…
- GFF (GFF)
- FY2025 10-K: …channels. Sales teams located in Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, Mexico and Ireland handle sales in each of their respective regions. In Australia, a dedicated team of sales professionals is provided for the largest retail customer. CPP has made significant investments in automation, facilities expansion and…
- FY2025 10-K: …of HBP and CPP to meet their customer demands. HBP and CPP rely on a limited number of companies globally to supply components and manufacture certain of their products. The percentage of HBP and CPP worldwide sourced finished goods as a percent of revenue approximated 6% and 38%, respectively, in 2025. The…
- BLD (TopBuild Corp)
- FY2025 10-K: , which generally drive increased demand for our offerings. 19 Table of Contents Risks Relating to the Industries in Which We Operate Our business relies on residential new construction, commercial construction, and industrial manufacturing activity, and to a lesser extent on residential and commercial…
- FY2025 10-K: …has historically followed different cycles than residential new construction. 6 Table of Contents Strong local presence. Competition for the installation and sale of insulation and other building products to builders occurs in localized geographic markets throughout the U.S. and Canada. Builders and contractors…
- IBP (Installed Building Products, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …Retainage receivables represent the amount retained by our customers to ensure the quality of the installation and is received after satisfactory completion of each installation project. Management regularly reviews aging of retainage receivables and changes in payment trends and records an allowance when collection…
- FY2025 10-K: …remedial actions. Our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows could be adversely affected if pending or future legal claims against us are not resolved in our favor. We are subject to various claims and lawsuits arising in the ordinary course of business, including wage and hour lawsuits. The…
Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies (CWT) (reported)
- OC (Owens Corning)
- FY2025 10-K: …reporting units. Prior to reorganizing the reportable segments and integrating portions of the former Composites reportable segment, but after allocating Goodwill to discontinued operations, the Company tested the Goodwill for the Roofing, Insulation and Composites reporting units. As a result of this test, we…
- FY2025 10-K: …driven by both residential repair and remodeling activity and by new residential construction. Roofing damage from major storms can significantly increase demand in this segment. As a result, sales in this segment do not always follow seasonal home improvement, remodeling and new construction industry patterns. Our…
- RPM (RPM International Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …rehabilitation and repair of roads, highways, bridges, pipes and other infrastructure. The key attributes that differentiate competitors for these applications include quality assurance, on-the-job consultation and value-added, highly engineered and/or sustainable products. We primarily offer products marketed under…
- FY2025 10-K: …span across a wide variety of applications. Consumer Home Improvement Products. Within our Consumer reportable segment, we generally serve the home improvement market with products designed for niche architectural, rust-preventative, decorative and special purpose paint and caulking and sealing applications. The…
- AXTA (AXALTA COATING SYSTEMS LTD.)
- FY2025 10-K: …appliances, protective coating, pipes and tubes, metal enclosures and fencing, industrial components, gutters, garage and entry doors, HVAC systems, metal wall panels, and power storage and electrical boxes. Demand in this end-market is driven by a wide variety of macroeconomic factors, such as growth in GDP and new…
- FY2025 10-K: …and durability and provide long-term corrosion protection. Customers also look for suppliers that offer sustainable solutions to aid in the customer portfolio transformation and can enhance process efficiency, improve productivity and provide technical support. • Commercial Vehicle - Sales in the commercial vehicle…
- FBIN (Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …faucets, accessories, luxury hardware, kitchen sinks and waste disposals, predominantly under the Moen, ROHL, Riobel, Victoria+Albert, Perrin & Rowe, Aqualisa, Shaws, Emtek, Schaub and SpringWell brands. The Outdoors segment includes fiberglass and steel entry door systems under the Therma-Tru brand name, storm,…
- FY2025 10-K: Segment Raw Materials Water Brass, zinc, resins, stainless steel and aluminum Outdoors Wood, aluminum, steel, plastics, resins, glass, vinyl and insulating foam Security Steel, zinc, brass and resins Intellectual property. Product innovation and branding are important to the success of our business. In addition to the…
- GFF (GFF)
- FY2025 10-K: …and direct to installer (building) channels and competes with a significant number of companies across each of these unique channels. Principal competition for retail wire products is from products sourced from China, India and other low-cost producing countries. FirstService Brands, Inc. sells competing wood…
- FY2025 10-K: …channels. Sales teams located in Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, Mexico and Ireland handle sales in each of their respective regions. In Australia, a dedicated team of sales professionals is provided for the largest retail customer. CPP has made significant investments in automation, facilities expansion and…
- AWI (ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …produce goods for inventory and sell on credit to our customers. Generally, we believe our distributors and home center customers carry inventory as needed to meet local or rapid delivery requirements. We sell our products to select, pre-approved customers using customary trade terms that allow for payment in the…
- FY2025 10-K: …in our Architectural Specialties segment. Manufacturing Plants As of December 31, 2025, we operated 22 manufacturing plants, including 19 plants located within the U.S. and three plants in Canada. WAVE operates seven additional plants in the U.S. to produce suspension system (grid) products, which we use and sell in…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
company announcement of results date, July 2026 · Wall Street Journal, June 2026 · Q1 2026 results, April 2026 · Goldman Sachs research note, April 2026 · analyst target revisions, July 2026