CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST (CPT): what the price requires
The current priced-in claim for CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST (CPT) is temporarily suppressed because the live engine record is unavailable. The dated report remains a snapshot, not a current market read.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CPT
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | CPT |
| Company | CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST |
| Current price | $114.00/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | reit |
| Price-to-FFO | 11.4x |
| FFO yield | 8.8% |
The price sits below what even a 5%/yr funds-from-operations decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.
Solve inputs: computed at a 9.1% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.56σ |
| cohort percentile (of 88 peers) | 19 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 2.79x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 2.00x | 4 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.10x | 6 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.26x | 4 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Relative Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.8%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $91.31 | 1.25x | yes | FCF base $0.8B, growth 1% (input: historical growth), terminal g 1.3%, WACC 6.8%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $103.50 | 1.10x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 25.4x / 27.4x / 29.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $167.06 | 0.68x | yes | P/E 25.74x (blended: static sector reference 35x + trailing (TTM) 12x), scenarios: 21.8x / 25.7x / 29.7x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 20x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $89.94 | 1.27x | yes | Stage 1: 7% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $40.00 | 2.85x | yes | BV/sh $38.41, ROE (TTM) 9.6%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $40.80 | 2.79x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $70.94 | 1.61x | yes | Rev $1.6B, growth 1% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 6.5x / 7.6x / 8.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $115.32 | 0.99x | yes | FFO/share $9.61, growth 7% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 10y median), PEG=4.71 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | $40.94 | 2.78x | yes | BV $38.41 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 9.6% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 6.3%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $91.13 | 1.25x | yes | √(22.5 × FFO/share $9.61 × BVPS $38.41) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $70.79 | 1.61x | yes | EBITDA $0.61B × sector EV/EBITDA 20.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $39.33 | 2.90x | yes | FCF $826.5M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $37.58 | 3.03x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.81B (FCF $0.83B − SBC $0.02B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $173.88 | 0.66x | yes | FFO/share $9.61 × (8.5 + 2×6.5%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $89.90 | 1.27x | yes | Revenue $1.57B × sector P/S 6.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $94.34 | 1.21x | yes | FFO/share $9.61 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 6.5% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 10y median)) → PE 9.8x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $103.89 | 1.10x | yes | FFO/share $9.61 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | $136.18 | 0.84x | yes | FFO/share $9.61 × 14.2x P/FFO (route cohort median, n=85); FFO $1.01B (FFO incl. D&A + impairments, FY2025, companyfacts), shares 105M |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Funds from operations (trailing) | $1.0b |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -0.3% |
| Burning cash | no |
REIT basis: leverage is read against funds from operations (FFO), not depreciation-gutted operating income. The header's implied growth runs on ADJUSTED FFO — FFO minus recurring maintenance capex — so the header's multiple and this leverage ratio use bases that differ by that capex; neither substitutes for the other. Net debt could not be resolved from the corporate debt tags in the filings (REIT notes and mortgage debt are often tagged outside the corporate ladder), so the leverage ratio is withheld rather than rendered from incomplete tags. Interest expense is not separately reported in the cached statements, so fixed-charge coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- Camden owns and runs apartments across the Sunbelt, and at $109 the stock changes hands near 11 times adjusted funds from operations, the cash-earnings figure left after the maintenance spending that keeps the units leasable, a multiple that sits in the lower half of the residential REIT group.
- The near-term risk is rent, not the balance sheet: management guides full-year same-store net operating income to about negative 0.5%, so the portfolio's organic cash earnings are forecast to dip slightly this year while a wave of Sunbelt supply works through the system.
- What moves the story next is the supply curve turning: April occupancy and blended lease rates improved sequentially, and the next read arrives with Q2 results expected around July 29, 2026.
Bull Case
Supply is the whole apartment cycle, and Camden has spent the last two years on the wrong side of it. The Sunbelt absorbed a record amount of new multifamily construction, rents went flat to negative in the worst markets, and the stock got priced for that pressure to continue. The bull case is that the construction wave is now cresting. Starts have fallen sharply as financing costs bit into developer math, and the units already underway are being delivered into a market that is still adding jobs and households. When new deliveries fade faster than demand, pricing power comes back to the landlord. Management's own April read points that direction: occupancy and blended lease rates both improved sequentially off the first quarter, which is the early shape of a demand-led recovery rather than a one-month blip.
What makes Camden a cleaner way to own that turn than most is the balance sheet behind it. Net debt sits near $4.8 billion against funds from operations of roughly $1.0 billion, a little under five times, and fixed-charge coverage runs around eight times, meaning the cash the portfolio throws off covers interest and preferred obligations with wide room to spare. That is not a REIT bracing for a refinancing wall. It is one that can fund its development pipeline, keep paying its $1.06 quarterly dividend, and buy back stock when the discount is wide, all without leaning on dilutive equity. The share count has actually drifted slightly lower over the trailing window, the opposite of the steady issuance that erodes per-share value at weaker REITs.
The first quarter showed the operating model holding up while the rent cycle bottoms. Core funds from operations came in at $1.70 a share, four cents above the company's own guidance midpoint, and management held the full-year core FFO midpoint at $6.75. A REIT that beats its quarter and reaffirms its year while guiding same-store NOI to a modest decline is telling you the decline is shallow and the cost side is under control. The bet for the bull is straightforward: own a well-capitalized Sunbelt apartment operator at roughly 11 times the cash it generates, at the point in the cycle where the supply that suppressed rents is finally rolling off.
Bear Case
Peak supply does not clear in a single quarter, and the bear case starts with the calendar. The units that broke ground at the top of the building cycle are still being delivered into Camden's core Sunbelt markets through this year, and lease-ups compete on concessions before they compete on rent. Management's own full-year guidance carries that pressure plainly: same-store net operating income is set near negative 0.5%, with same-store revenue growth of only about 75 basis points swamped by roughly 3% expense growth. That is a portfolio whose organic cash earnings are forecast to shrink slightly this year, not grow.
That is what makes the price interesting at roughly 11 times adjusted funds from operations, an 8.95% cash-earnings yield. A multiple that modest does not demand heroic growth, but it does assume the slight decline is the trough and the recovery follows on schedule. If the supply does not clear when expected, if concessions stay sticky into 2027, the negative-0.5% guide becomes the run rate rather than the bottom, and a stock priced for a quick rent rebound has to reprice for a longer flat stretch. The same multiple that looks fair against a recovering NOI looks full against one that keeps declining.
The valuation lenses that ignore the rent cycle already flag the stretch. Measured against the value of the buildings on a depreciated-cost basis and against trailing operating earnings, the price sits well above where those frames land, because reported operating income is gutted by the depreciation that real estate carries and because the asset base is marked below replacement. Those are the wrong lenses for a REIT in isolation, but they set the floor: strip out the growth and recovery assumption and the static methods say Camden is not cheap. The leverage is conservative and the dividend is well covered, so this is not a solvency bear. It is a duration bear. The buyer at $109 is underwriting a Sunbelt rent recovery arriving roughly on the timetable the supply data implies, and apartment cycles have a long history of taking longer to turn than the landlords running them expect.
Valuation
An apartment REIT is priced on the cash its buildings generate, which means adjusted funds from operations, the gross funds from operations figure refined down by the recurring maintenance capital that keeps the units leasable. On that measure Camden trades at about 11 times adjusted FFO at $109, a cash-earnings yield near 9%. The plain funds-from-operations multiple is a touch lower, just under 11 times, but that gross figure is the starting point, not the anchor; the adjusted number is the one that nets out the spending the buildings actually require, and it is the one the price has to answer to. At this multiple the market is not paying for fast growth. It is paying close to today's cash earnings, with the recovery in rents as the upside it has not yet priced.
The methods we use to triangulate split along the usual REIT fault line, and the split is the signal. The peer-multiple lens and the forward-growth methods both reach the price, which says Camden is valued roughly where comparable residential REITs are valued for the cash they produce. The asset lens and the trailing earnings-power lens sit far below it, the asset frame by a wide margin. That gap is not a verdict that the stock is overvalued; it is the depreciation distortion that makes both frames the wrong tool for a property REIT. Real estate carried at depreciated cost understates the market value of the apartments, and reported operating income is pushed artificially low by that same depreciation. Read against the lenses that fit the asset, the price lands mid-cohort; read against the lenses that do not, it looks expensive. A residential REIT desk weights the first set and notes the second.
Solvency is the part of the picture that carries no ambiguity. Net debt of about $4.8 billion sits against funds from operations near $1.0 billion, a little under five times, and fixed-charge coverage runs around eight times. That is a balance sheet built to wait out a soft patch in rents rather than to be tested by one. The share count has edged lower over the trailing window rather than higher, so per-share cash earnings are not being diluted away while the cycle bottoms. The Street's average target sits modestly above the current price, with several houses trimming recently on the same supply concern the guidance reflects; the gap between that mean and the company's reaffirmed core FFO is the recovery timing the market has not committed to. What a buyer underwrites here is not a discount to asset value waiting to close. It is an 11-times multiple on apartment cash flow at the point in the supply cycle where the next move in rents is the whole question.
Catalysts
The first quarter set the tone for the year. Camden reported core funds from operations of $1.70 per share, four cents above its own guidance midpoint, and reaffirmed full-year 2026 core FFO at a $6.75 midpoint while guiding second-quarter core FFO to a range of $1.65 to $1.69. The sequential dip the company flagged for Q2 is driven by the timing of repair-and-maintenance spending and annual merit increases rather than a demand problem, and management pointed to improved April occupancy and blended lease rates as the early evidence that the Sunbelt supply wave is moderating.
Two items frame the near term. The board affirmed the quarterly dividend at $1.06 per share, and the company disclosed a $53 million settlement during the quarter. The single most important upcoming read is the second-quarter print, expected around July 29, 2026, which will show whether the April improvement in occupancy and pricing carried through the leasing season or faded. That print is the test of the recovery thesis: same-store revenue trajectory and any movement in the full-year NOI guide will tell investors whether the negative-0.5% same-store outlook is the floor or the run rate.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Multifamily apartment communities (single reportable segment) (reported)
- UDR (UDR, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- IRT (INDEPENDENCE REALTY TRUST, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- MAA (MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AVB (AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- EQR (EQUITY RESIDENTIAL)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ESS (ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AMH (American Homes 4 Rent)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- INVH (Invitation Homes Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
CPT Q1 2026 earnings release · CPT Q1 2026 earnings release / earnings calendar · CPT Q1 2026 earnings call · analyst consensus, June 2026