CATALYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (CPRX): what the price requires
At today's price, CATALYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (CPRX) is priced for +4.0% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CPRX
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | CPRX |
| Company | CATALYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. |
| Current price | $31.49/sh |
| Composition | FIRDAPSE 61% / AGAMREE 20% / FYCOMPA 19% / License and other revenue 0% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 6.9% |
| Operating margin today | 46.0% |
| Margin compression implied | -39.1pp |
| Implied growth | 4.0% |
| Multiple paid | 12x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 4, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 10.3% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~4.3pp.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~-0.4%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -1.20σ |
| cohort percentile (of 113 peers) | 11 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.67x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.46x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.05x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.02x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $37.90 | 0.83x | yes | FCF base $0.2B, growth 12% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.2%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $30.96 | 1.02x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 10.1x / 12.1x / 14.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $43.24 | 0.73x | yes | P/E 24x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 19.9x / 24.0x / 28.1x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 16x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $18.85 | 1.67x | yes | BV/sh $7.98, ROE (TTM) 21.9%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $28.81 | 1.09x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $22.61 | 1.39x | yes | Rev $0.6B, growth 12% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 5.6x / 6.7x / 7.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $20.76 | 1.52x | yes | EPS $1.73, growth 12% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=1.56 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $12.20 | 2.58x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.15B × (1−24%) / WACC 9.2% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $27.11 | 1.16x | yes | BV $7.98 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 21.9% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $17.62 | 1.79x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $1.73 × BVPS $7.98) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $39.67 | 0.79x | yes | EBITDA $0.27B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $23.65 | 1.33x | yes | FCF $208.1M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $21.50 | 1.46x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.18B (FCF $0.21B − SBC $0.03B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $45.86 | 0.69x | yes | EPS $1.73 × (8.5 + 2×11.6%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $18.26 | 1.72x | yes | BV $7.98 × (ROIC 21.1% / WACC 9.2%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $18.82 | 1.67x | yes | Revenue $0.60B × sector P/S 4.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $30.01 | 1.05x | yes | EPS $1.73 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 11.6% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 17.3x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $18.70 | 1.68x | yes | EPS $1.73 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $755.9m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | -3.71x (net cash) |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | -2.81x (net cash) |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 3.9% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- Catalyst Pharmaceuticals has agreed to be acquired by Angelini Pharma for $31.50 per share in cash, a roughly $4.1 billion deal signed May 6, 2026. At $31.38 the stock trades essentially at the takeout price, so the relevant question is deal completion, not standalone valuation.
- The business itself is a profitable rare-disease specialty pharma. Q1 2026 revenue was $149.4 million, up 28%, on Firdapse for Lambert-Eaton myasthenic syndrome (up 18% to $98.9M) and Agamree for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (up 67% to $36.7M). GAAP net income was $63.7 million.
- With a definitive cash agreement in place, the price ceiling is fixed at $31.50; the upside is the small remaining spread to closing, and the downside is deal failure that would return the stock to its standalone level.
Bull Case
Frame the stage clearly, because it changes everything about how to read this name: Catalyst is no longer a standalone forward-thesis stock. It is an announced cash acquisition. On May 6, 2026, Catalyst signed a definitive merger agreement to be acquired by Angelini Pharma for $31.50 per share in cash, an equity value of about $4.1 billion, at a 28% premium to the 30-day volume-weighted average price as of April 22, 2026. At $31.38 the stock trades within pennies of that price, which means the market is treating the deal as highly likely to close. For a holder, the case is simply that the merger completes and the cash is paid.
The reason the deal carries a high probability of closing is the quality of the underlying business it values. Catalyst is a genuinely profitable rare-disease specialty pharma, not a speculative biotech. Q1 2026 total revenue was $149.4 million, up 28% year over year, with GAAP net income of $63.7 million. Firdapse, its treatment for Lambert-Eaton myasthenic syndrome, grew 18.1% to $98.9 million, and Agamree, for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, grew 66.6% to $36.7 million. The company holds net cash near $753 million. Angelini is buying a cash-generating commercial portfolio with two growing rare-disease drugs, which is exactly the kind of asset that strategic acquirers complete deals on.
The deal mechanics are advanced and conventional. The Catalyst board unanimously recommends approval, a shareholder vote is set for July 8, 2026 for holders of record as of June 3, and management expects closing in the third quarter of 2026, subject to customary conditions and regulatory approvals. There is no competing bid or financing contingency flagged. The bull case here is not about Firdapse's long-term market or Agamree's ramp; those now accrue to Angelini. It is the narrower, higher-probability case that a clean, all-cash, board-endorsed acquisition of a profitable company closes on schedule and pays $31.50.
Bear Case
The sensitivity that matters most for Catalyst is binary and regulatory: whether the Angelini acquisition closes. Because the stock trades essentially at the $31.50 deal price, there is almost no upside left if the deal completes, only the small remaining spread to closing. The asymmetry runs the other way. If the merger fails, on a regulatory block, a shareholder rejection at the July 8 vote, or a material-adverse-change dispute, the stock would fall back to its standalone, pre-announcement level, which was well below the $31.50 takeout. A buyer at today's price is accepting capped upside against meaningful downside if the deal breaks, the classic merger-arbitrage risk profile.
The standalone business, while solid, carries the concentration risk that a forward thesis would have to confront if the deal did collapse. Catalyst depends on two products, Firdapse and Agamree, both in rare-disease niches. Firdapse faces ongoing generic and competitive pressure in Lambert-Eaton myasthenic syndrome, and the company's history includes litigation over its orphan-drug exclusivity. The 10-K reflects how narrow the revenue base is, noting only about $0.2 million in license and royalty revenue for the year (accession 0001193125-26-071525), meaning nearly all revenue comes from the two commercial products. Without the deal, the valuation would revert to standalone rare-disease-pharma multiples, and the V5 inversion against a standalone business is moot while the cash price governs the stock.
The practical bear point is about reward for risk. At $31.38 against a $31.50 cash offer, the remaining return to closing is a fraction of a percent over roughly a quarter, before any consideration of the small but real chance the deal does not complete. That is a tight spread for the risk, and an investor is no longer being paid for the company's growth, only for the deal mechanics. The bet against owning Catalyst here is simply that the risk-adjusted return on a near-complete arbitrage is thin, and that any hitch in the regulatory or shareholder process is pure downside from this level.
Valuation
Catalyst's valuation is governed by the announced acquisition price, not by intrinsic-value methods. With a definitive all-cash agreement at $31.50 per share and the stock at $31.38, the price is anchored to the deal, and any standard valuation read is a counterfactual about what the stock would be worth if the merger did not exist. The implied-expectations inversion, which on a standalone basis put the market at roughly 11x company-wide operating income with a mild positive implied growth, is informative only as a snapshot of the business Angelini is buying, not as a guide to where this stock trades while the deal is live.
For context on the asset being acquired, the standalone model families bracket a value somewhat below the deal price. The forward DCF perpetual-growth method landed near $38 and the DCF exit-multiple near $31, the relative-multiple lens near $43, and the asset-based methods in the high-teens to high-twenties, with Earnings Power Value near $12 the most conservative. The standalone blended X-ray near $30 sits close to but below the $31.50 takeout, which is consistent with Angelini paying a premium to standalone fair value, the normal shape of an acquisition.
The valuation conclusion is straightforward: the relevant number is $31.50, the cash a holder receives if the deal closes. The standalone methods suggest Angelini is paying a fair-to-full premium for a profitable rare-disease portfolio, which supports deal certainty. From this price, the return is the spread to closing, and the valuation question collapses into a probability-of-completion question. The deciding variable is the July 8 shareholder vote and the regulatory clearances expected in the third quarter of 2026.
Catalysts
The acquisition timeline is the only catalyst that matters now. Catalyst agreed to be acquired by Angelini Pharma for $31.50 per share in cash under a merger agreement dated May 6, 2026. The shareholder vote is scheduled for July 8, 2026, for holders of record as of June 3, and the board unanimously recommends approval. Management expects the deal to close in the third quarter of 2026, subject to customary conditions and regulatory approvals.
The near-term events to watch are the shareholder vote outcome and the regulatory clearances. A favorable vote and clean antitrust review would lock in the $31.50 payment; any delay, regulatory objection, or vote shortfall would reintroduce standalone risk and likely pressure the stock toward its pre-announcement level.
The underlying business momentum reinforces deal certainty rather than offering standalone upside. Q1 2026 revenue was $149.4 million, up 28%, with Firdapse up 18.1% to $98.9 million and Agamree up 66.6% to $36.7 million; full-year guidance had pointed to Firdapse growth of 21% to 26% and Agamree growth of 20% to 28%. Those results accrue to Angelini on close. Citi moved its rating to Neutral with a $31.50 target, matching the deal price, which captures the situation: the stock is now a function of the merger, not the franchise.
Sources: Angelini to acquire Catalyst for $4.1B (PharmExec), Catalyst merger proxy and July 8 vote (StockTitan), Catalyst Q1 2026 results (StockTitan)
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Drug products development and commercialization (reported)
- ADMA (ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …any collateral securing the JPM Loans. 48 Table of Contents Developments by competitors may render our products or technologies obsolete or non-competitive. The biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries are intensely competitive and subject to rapid and significant technological change. Our current products and any…
- FY2025 10-K: …and regulatory initiatives designed to, among other things, bring more transparency to product pricing, evaluate the relationship between pricing and manufacturer patient assistance and support programs, permit government negotiation of Medicare pricing with manufacturers relative to certain international prices…
- INDV (Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …of our products over alternative treatments, including the cost of treatment and relative convenience and ease of administration; • the prevalence of the disease or condition for which the product is approved and the projected growth of the markets in which our products compete; • the effect of current and future…
- FY2025 10-K: …related to the import of drugs, international pricing reference, increased competition, and other cost-containment measures. These efforts, together with fiscal pressures on public health programs, could create direct and indirect downward pressure on drug prices. Although we continue to monitor and engage on…
- ALKS (Alkermes plc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …in the commercialization and continued development of products from which we receive revenue and, if our licensees are not effective, or if disputes arise in respect of our contractual arrangements, our revenues could be materially adversely affected; • clinical trials for our product candidates are expensive, may…
- FY2025 10-K: …in the marketplace, including generic competition, and the relative price of those products; the efficacy, safety and reliability of our products compared to competing or alternative products; product acceptance by, and preferences of, physicians, other healthcare providers and patients; our ability to comply with…
- UTHR (United Therapeutics Corporation)
- FY2025 10-K: …regulatory approvals; • Our ability to maintain attractive pricing and reimbursement levels for our products, in light of increasing competition, including from generic products, and pressure from government and other payers to decrease the costs associated with healthcare, including the potential impact of the IRA…
- FY2025 10-K: …granting us rights to sell related products, direct and indirect distribution costs incurred in the sale of our products, and the costs of inventory reserves for current and projected obsolescence. These costs also include share-based compensation and salary-related expenses for direct manufacturing and indirect…
- AMRX (AMNEAL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …of the corresponding branded drug product to be sold during any period of marketing exclusivity that is awarded, which reduces gross margins during the marketing exclusivity period. Branded drug product companies may also reduce the price of their branded drug product to compete directly with generic drug products…
- FY2025 10-K: …processes that are complex and subject to increasing regulatory scrutiny and enforcement, including the Trade Agreements Act and Buy American Act, that may affect the sourcing, supply, manufacturing and pricing of materials used in the Company's products sold to the Federal government. Additionally, the Cybersecurity…
- ANIP (ANI PHARMACEUTICALS, INC)
- FY2025 10-K: …in selecting products to develop and commercialize. • Market Size and Patient Need . When determining whether to develop or acquire an individual product, we review the current and expected market size and competitive environment for that product. We endeavor to pursue products with sufficient market size to enable…
- FY2025 10-K: …generic companies will begin to market an authorized generic, a generic equivalent of a branded product, at the same time generic competition initially enters the market; • launching a generic version of their own branded product at the same time generic competition initially enters the market; • filing citizen…
- LNTH (LANTHEUS HOLDINGS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …as those issued by the International Standards Organization, or regulatory requirements. When a quality or regulatory issue is identified, we investigate the issue and take appropriate corrective action, such as withdrawal of the product from the market, correction of the product at the customer location, notice to…
- FY2025 10-K: …drug development. A request under the CREATES Act may indicate that a generic or biosimilar manufacturer is pursuing development of a competitive version of DEFINITY, as access to reference product samples or related safety protocols is generally sought to conduct studies required for regulatory approval. While such…
- HALO (HALOZYME THERAPEUTICS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …resources, larger research and development staffs and more extensive marketing and manufacturing organizations. Smaller or early stage emerging companies may also prove to be significant competitors, particularly through collaborative arrangements with large, established companies. Government Regulations The FDA and…
- FY2025 10-K: …use third parties to perform various other services for us relating to regulatory monitoring, including adverse event reporting, safety database management and other product maintenance services. Competition The pharmaceutical industry is characterized by rapidly advancing technologies, intense competition and a…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.