CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INC (CORT): what the price requires
At today's price, CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INC (CORT) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~9.3 years. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CORT
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | CORT |
| Company | CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INC |
| Current price | $85.27/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 10.6% |
| Operating margin (mid-cycle) | 30.6% |
| Margin compression implied | -20.0pp |
| Trailing margin (depressed year) | -1.3% |
| Must persist for | 9.3y |
| Multiple paid | 40x mid-cycle operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 5, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 9.8% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2 years.
How unusual the bet is: elevated
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.03σ |
| sustained it ~9.3 years at this level | 18% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore requires assumptions beyond what those standard frames encode.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 18.46x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 8.48x | 2 | expensive |
| Relative | 3.69x | 3 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.56x | 3 | expensive |
Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=12)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $30.04 | 2.84x | yes | FCF base $0.1B, growth 12% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.2%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $85.14 | 1.00x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 158.1x / 160.1x / 162.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $23.11 | 3.69x | yes | P/E 52.8x (blended: static sector reference 24x + trailing (TTM) 188x), scenarios: 43.8x / 52.8x / 61.8x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 35.2x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $4.90 | 17.40x | yes | BV/sh $6.11, ROE (TTM) 7.4%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $4.37 | 19.51x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $54.53 | 1.56x | yes | Rev $0.8B, growth 12% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 6.6x / 8.0x / 9.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $8.17 | 10.44x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.09B × (1−21%) / WACC 9.2% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $4.29 | 19.88x | yes | BV $6.11 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 7.4% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 4.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $6.94 | 12.29x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $0.35 × BVPS $6.11) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $9.14 | 9.33x | yes | EBITDA $0.06B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $13.08 | 6.52x | yes | FCF $119.8M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $4.21 | 20.25x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.03B (FCF $0.12B − SBC $0.09B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median) |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $0.29 | 294.02x | yes | EPS $0.35 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $29.46 | 2.89x | yes | Revenue $0.77B × sector P/S 4.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $3.78 | 22.56x | yes | EPS $0.35 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) (excluded from median) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $338.2m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | -1.93x (net cash) |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | -1.53x (net cash) |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -2.4% |
| Burning cash | no |
Leverage and coverage are computed on normalized mid-cycle operating income (mid-cycle margin 30.6%); the trailing year was depressed.
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- Corcept is a specialty pharma built on one approved drug, Korlym for Cushing's syndrome, now transitioning into a second act as relacorilant (branded Lifyorli) wins approval in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer and seeks a Cushing's label. The stage is the key: this is a profitable single-product company priced like a pipeline story.
- At $79.92 no valuation family reaches the price on current economics. Inverting it implies growth held at the self-funding ceiling for roughly nine years, so the price is underwriting a successful, durable pipeline transition, not the trailing business.
- The pivotal variable is the FDA. The agency issued a complete response letter on relacorilant in Cushing's in December 2025; Corcept resubmitted on June 17, 2026 with a six-month review expected. That decision, plus the Lifyorli launch, drives the thesis far more than any multiple.
Bull Case
Frame the stage first, because it dictates how to read every number. Corcept is not a typical mature healthcare company despite the way the models route it. It is a profitable, cash-generative specialty pharma that is mid-transition from a single-product business into a multi-product one. Korlym, its cortisol modulator for Cushing's syndrome, has funded the company for over a decade. The FY2025 10-K notes that since "2012, we have marketed Korlym in the United States for the treatment of patients suffering from hypercortisolism (also known as Cushing's syndrome)" (accession 0001628280-26-011091), and Korlym sales reached $559.3M in the first nine months of 2025, up about 13%. That base business throws off cash with no debt; net cash sits near $338M.
The second act is what the price is paying for, and it is arriving. Relacorilant, the next-generation cortisol modulator, was approved as Lifyorli in combination with nab-paclitaxel for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer in 2026, opening a large oncology market well beyond the rare-disease base. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $950M to $1.05B on early Lifyorli uptake. On the Cushing's side, Corcept resubmitted the relacorilant NDA to the FDA on June 17, 2026, with a six-month review expected, which would convert the franchise from off-patent Korlym to a proprietary, longer-lived successor drug. That patent transition is the strategic prize: it protects the cash flows that fund everything else.
The inverted price reflects a long, successful transition rather than a stretch on near-term rate. At $79.92 the market is paying about 37x normalized operating income, which solves to growth held at the self-funding ceiling for roughly nine years. That is a high bar, but it is the right shape for a company whose value is a pipeline coming to fruition: the trailing loss per share of about $0.30 in Q1 2026 reflects heavy spend on the Lifyorli launch and pipeline, not a broken business. If relacorilant succeeds in both indications, Corcept moves from a one-drug company to a diversified, patent-protected specialty franchise, and the static methods that read it as expensive today were simply measuring the wrong thing.
Bear Case
The variable with the most leverage on Corcept is regulatory, and it is binary. The FDA issued a complete response letter on the relacorilant Cushing's NDA in December 2025, the agency's way of saying the application was not approvable as submitted. Corcept resubmitted on June 17, 2026 with additional analyses and expects a six-month review, but the outcome is not assured, and the price at $79.92 appears to assume a clean path. A second rejection, or an approval with restrictive labeling, would remove the patent-protected successor that the durability bet depends on, and the stock would have to fall back toward the value of the off-patent Korlym base alone. No spreadsheet can handicap an FDA decision; the price is making a bet it cannot control.
The second exposure is concentration. This is effectively a one-product company today. The 10-K describes Korlym competing against "established treatments, including surgery, radiation and other medications approved by the FDA" (accession 0001628280-26-011091), and Korlym itself faces a long-running generic-entry threat, since the compound's core protection is limited and litigation over generic challengers has shadowed the name for years. If a generic mifepristone reaches the market before relacorilant is fully established, the cash flow that funds the pipeline erodes quickly. The whole thesis rests on the new drug arriving before the old one's economics fade.
The valuation makes the cushion look thin. No method reaches the price on current numbers. Simple excess return lands near $5, residual income near $4, Earnings Power Value near $8, and the relative-multiple lens near $23, all far below $79.92. Even the forward DCF perpetual-growth lands near $30. The price embeds growth held at the self-funding ceiling for about nine years, which is a long time for everything to go right: the Cushing's approval, the oncology launch, generic defense, and reimbursement. Q1 2026 already showed a loss as launch spending ramped. The bet against this stock is not that the science is bad. It is that a single FDA decision and a single patent transition carry the entire valuation, and either one missing resets the price hard.
Valuation
At $79.92, inverting the price puts Corcept at roughly 37x normalized operating income, which solves not to a single growth rate but to growth held at the company's 25% self-funding ceiling for about nine years, computed at a 9.9% cost of capital. The model uses mid-cycle, through-the-cycle margins on current revenue rather than the depressed trailing quarter, because Q1 2026 earnings are suppressed by launch spending. The read is that the price requires a long runway of near-maximum, self-funded growth, the signature of a pipeline that has to deliver.
The model families almost uniformly read the price as full on today's economics. The asset lens is the most cautious, with simple excess return near $5 and residual income near $4 against a book value per share near $6. Earnings Power Value lands near $8, the relative-multiple lens near $23 on a high blended P/E, and the forward DCF perpetual-growth near $30. The exit-multiple DCF lands near the price only because it applies an extreme EV/EBITDA exit to a company with minimal current EBITDA, which is more an artifact than a signal. The blended X-ray sits near $23, well below the quote.
The honest conclusion is that standard valuation cannot justify $79.92 on current cash flows; the price is a probability-weighted bet on the relacorilant franchise. If both the Cushing's approval and the Lifyorli oncology launch succeed and Korlym holds against generics long enough to bridge, the forward economics validate the price. If the FDA decision goes the other way or generics arrive early, the conservative methods near $5 to $23 become the relevant anchors. The deciding variable is the FDA, not the multiple.
Catalysts
The relacorilant Cushing's decision is the dominant catalyst. After the December 2025 complete response letter, Corcept resubmitted the NDA on June 17, 2026 with additional analyses, and expects a six-month review. The FDA's verdict, due roughly late 2026, is the single event that most moves the stock: approval converts the franchise to a patent-protected successor drug, a second rejection forces a reset to the Korlym base.
The Lifyorli oncology launch is the parallel growth catalyst. Relacorilant was approved as Lifyorli in combination with nab-paclitaxel for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer in 2026, and early uptake drove management to raise full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $950M to $1.05B. Quarterly Lifyorli sales and prescriber adoption are the cleanest read on whether the oncology market is opening as hoped.
Korlym's base trajectory and generic defense are the foundation to monitor. Korlym sales were $559.3M in the first nine months of 2025, up about 13%, and any generic-entry development or patent-litigation update directly affects the cash flow funding the pipeline. Q1 2026 revenue was $164.9M, up 4.9%, with a loss of about $0.30 per share as launch and pipeline spending ramped, so the path of operating spend versus new-product revenue is the metric that shows whether the transition is paying off.
Sources: Corcept resubmits relacorilant NDA (StockTitan), Will Korlym continue to drive Corcept's top line (Yahoo Finance), Corcept resubmits FDA application (TipRanks)
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Corcept Therapeutics (consolidated) (reported)
- NBIX (NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …in consolidation. Certain reclassifications have been made to previously reported amounts to conform to the current period presentation. Revenue Recognition We recognize revenue when the customer obtains control of promised goods or services in an amount that reflects the consideration which we expect to receive in…
- FY2025 10-K: …and Abbott International Luxemburg S.a.r.l. Reference: Incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.2 of the Company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed on May 5, 2021 10.3* Description: Collaboration and License Agreement dated March 31, 2015 between Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation and the Company Reference:…
- AXSM (AXSOME THERAPEUTICS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …party, and Blackstone. This new direct agreement superseded the prior direct agreement among us, Antecip, a related party, and Hercules that had been entered into in connection with the Hercules Loan Agreement, which terminated automatically upon repayment of our Hercules loan obligations in full on May 8, 2025. F-…
- FY2025 10-K: …since the information required is included in the consolidated financial statements and notes thereto. Other schedules are omitted because they are not applicable, or the required information is shown in the Financial Statements or notes thereto. 3. Exhibits The list of exhibits filed with this report is set forth in…
- SUPN (SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …constraints are impacting our ability to fully meet this demand. ONAPGO is manufactured in Europe, supplied to us by our ONAPGO licensing partner, and packaged in the U.S. by a third-party contract manufacturing organization. We currently rely on single source suppliers to produce and package final dosage forms for…
- FY2025 10-K: …(NDA) for OSMOLEX ER. Acquisition of Sage Therapeutics, Inc. and Reorganization On June 13, 2025, the Company entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (Merger Agreement) to acquire Sage Therapeutics, Inc. (Sage). The acquisition closed on July 31, 2025. Sage was a pharmaceutical company with a portfolio of…
- HRMY (HARMONY BIOSCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …diseases segment consists of the Company's commercial product, WAKIX, and its potential product candidates, that focus on patients living with rare neurological diseases who have unmet needs. The Company currently derives all of its revenue from sales of WAKIX, which is used in the treatment of EDS and cataplexy in…
- FY2025 10-K: …territories, which are rights originally licensed from Teijin Pharma, the innovator of BP1.15205. We further broadened our portfolio into rare epilepsy when the Company acquired Epygenix Therapeutics, Inc. ("Epygenix") in April 2024. As a result, the Company now has an exclusive license relating to the use of…
- ACAD (ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC)
- FY2025 10-K: …and delusions associated with PDP. NUPLAZID became available for prescription in the United States in May 2016. In March 2023, the FDA approved the Company's second drug, DAYBUE ® (trofinetide), for the treatment of Rett syndrome. DAYBUE became available for prescription in the United States in April 2023. In October…
- FY2025 10-K: …any way our opinion on the consolidated financial statements, taken as a whole, and we are not, by communicating the critical audit matter below, providing a separate opinion on the critical audit matter or on the accounts or disclosures to which it relates. F- 1 Medicare Part D sales rebate accruals Description of…
- ALKS (Alkermes plc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …Agreement were released in connection with the termination. Such prepayment was accounted for as a debt extinguishment. See Note 11, Long-Term Debt , in the "Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements" in this Annual Report for additional discussion related to our Former Term Loans. Discontinued Operations Net loss…
- FY2025 10-K: …TECFIDERA (dimethyl fumarate), and PLEGRIDY (peginterferon beta-1a) from Biogen; OCREVUS (ocrelizumab) from Genentech; BETASERON (interferon beta-1b) from Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals; COPAXONE (glatiramer acetate) from Teva; REBIF (interferon beta-1a) and MAVENCLAD (cladribine) from EMD Serono, Inc.; GILENYA…
- APLS (APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …bias. o We held discussions with financial and operational management to determine whether any strategic, regulatory, or operational changes in the business were consistent with the projections of future demand that were utilized in estimating the provision recorded. • We tested the effectiveness of controls over…
- FY2025 10-K: …Public Accounting Firm (PCAOB ID: 34) 110 Consolidated Financial Statements as of and for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023 and for each of the three years in the period ended December 31, 2024: Consolidated Balance Sheets as of December 31, 2025 and 2024 112 Consolidated Statements of Operations and…
- FOLD (AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …To Consolidated Financial Statements 1. Description of Business Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (the "Company") is a leading, global biotechnology company with a clear and compelling mission to develop and deliver transformative medicines for people living with rare diseases. With extraordinary patient focus, Amicus…
- FY2025 10-K: …its members. The member to whom such authority is delegated must report, for informational purposes only, any pre-approval decisions to the Audit and Compliance Committee at its next scheduled meeting. -166- Table of Contents -167- Table of Contents PART IV Item 15. EXHIBITS, FINANCIAL STATEMENT SCHEDULE 1. Index to…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.