CONCENTRA GROUP HOLDINGS PARENT, INC. (CON): what the price requires
At today's price, CONCENTRA GROUP HOLDINGS PARENT, INC. (CON) is priced for -2.3% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CON
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | CON |
| Company | CONCENTRA GROUP HOLDINGS PARENT, INC. |
| Current price | $31.42/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 6.1% |
| Operating margin today | 16.4% |
| Margin compression implied | -10.3pp |
| Implied growth | -2.3% |
| Multiple paid | 17x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 7.2% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~7.1pp.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~11.2%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| cohort percentile (of 113 peers) | 33 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.71x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 2.42x | 4 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.72x | 5 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.81x | 2 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.4%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=15)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $51.22 | 0.61x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 12.2x / 14.2x / 16.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $26.43 | 1.19x | yes | P/E 18x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 14.8x / 18.0x / 21.2x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 12x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $14.98 | 2.10x | yes | BV/sh $3.31, ROE (TTM) 41.9%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $36.03 | 0.87x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $31.34 | 1.00x | yes | Rev $2.2B, growth 15% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.5x / 1.8x / 2.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $44.38 | 0.71x | yes | EPS $1.39, growth 32% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.71 (Undervalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $11.42 | 2.75x | yes | Normalized EBIT (3y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.30B × (1−25%) / WACC 6.4% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $23.83 | 1.32x | yes | BV $3.31 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 41.9% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $10.17 | 3.09x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $1.39 × BVPS $3.31) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $24.05 | 1.31x | yes | EBITDA $0.43B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $1.82 | 17.26x | yes | FCF $211.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.78 | 40.28x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.20B (FCF $0.21B − SBC $0.01B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median) |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $44.85 | 0.70x | yes | EPS $1.39 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $1.50 | 20.95x | yes | BV $3.31 × (ROIC 2.9% / WACC 6.4%) (excluded from median) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $43.43 | 0.72x | yes | Revenue $2.23B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $52.13 | 0.60x | yes | EPS $1.39 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $15.03 | 2.09x | yes | EPS $1.39 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $1.5b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 5.60x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 4.21x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 8.0% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- Concentra runs the largest occupational-health network in the country, and the trajectory is what stands out: Q1 2026 revenue of $569.6M came in 13.7% above the year-ago quarter, net income rose 28.7% to $52.3M, and adjusted EBITDA grew 17.6% to $120.7M on 3.42M patient visits. The business is compounding on both volume and rate.
- At $28.56 the market is paying roughly 16x company-wide operating income, a multiple that solves to about negative 4% annual operating growth over five years. That is a low bar for a network growing visits and pricing together, and it is the central tension in the name.
- The offsetting weight is the balance sheet. Net debt sits near $1.5B against trailing operating income of about $349M, a load inherited from the 2024 carve-out from Select Medical. Interest coverage of roughly 13x is comfortable today, but the leverage is the reason the asset-based and earnings-power lenses read the price as full.
Bull Case
Start with the direction the numbers have been moving, because that is where the case lives. In the first quarter of 2026 Concentra grew revenue 13.7% over the prior year to $569.6M, lifted net income 28.7% to $52.3M, and pushed adjusted EBITDA up 17.6% to $120.7M. Patient visits rose 6.7% to 3.42M. This is not a single good print. Management raised full-year revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free-cash-flow guidance after the quarter, now pointing to 2026 revenue of $2.275B to $2.375B, adjusted EBITDA of $460M to $480M, and free cash flow of $215M to $235M. Growth is arriving through two doors at once, more visits and better rates per visit, which is the healthiest mix an occupational-health network can show.
The structural position is hard to copy. Concentra operates the largest footprint of occupational-health centers in the United States, the place employers send workers for injury care, physicals, and drug screening. That scale matters in a sector where local density and employer relationships are the moat. The on-site clinic business, where Concentra embeds care inside large employers, is approaching a $150M revenue run-rate with an active pipeline, which extends the same employer relationships into recurring, contracted revenue. Peers in adjacent care-delivery markets describe the same playbook of compounding through density and acquisition; Ensign, for instance, states in its FY2025 10-K that it added 46 new operations during the year and plans to continue to attract high acuity patients by maintaining and enhancing its reputation for quality care and a community focused approach (accession 0001125376-26-000007). Concentra is running that density-and-relationship model in occupational health, a quieter corner with fewer direct competitors of its scale.
Against that, look at what the price asks. At $28.56 the market is paying about 16x company-wide operating income, and inverting that multiple implies roughly negative 4% operating growth a year for five years. A network that just grew EBITDA in the high teens and raised guidance does not obviously deserve a shrinking-business multiple. The valuation X-ray reflects the same tension: the relative-multiple view lands near the price and the forward-growth methods reach above it, with the exit-multiple model sitting around $48 and the Peter Lynch growth screen near $44 on an estimated PEG below 1. The bull case does not need heroics. It needs the company to keep doing roughly what it did last quarter while it finishes separating its shared services from Select Medical, a separation management says is running ahead of schedule and is meant to lift margin as Concentra builds its own scalable infrastructure.
Bear Case
The bear case starts with what the price is leaning on. The methods that reach the current quote are the forward-growth and relative-multiple lenses, and both depend on Concentra keeping its current pace of visit growth and rate gains intact. The asset-based and earnings-power lenses tell a colder story. Earnings Power Value, which asks what the business is worth if it never grows again, lands around $12 against a $28.56 price (June 27, 2026), and the simple excess-return view lands near $15. When the bullish methods all run through growth continues and the no-growth methods sit at roughly half the price, the most fragile assumption is the one doing the most work: that the recent double-digit revenue cadence holds.
The reason that assumption is fragile is the balance sheet inherited from the carve-out. Concentra carries about $1.5B in net debt against roughly $349M of trailing operating income, leaving net-debt-to-operating-income above 4x. Interest coverage near 13x looks fine while rates and EBITDA cooperate, but the leverage means free cash flow is partly spoken for, and the company is still standing up independent corporate functions after the 2024 separation from Select Medical. Any slip in volume, in reimbursement rates, or in the cost of the separation itself lands on an equity base that is thinner than the enterprise value suggests. Book value per share is only about $3.31, so the market value rests almost entirely on the durability of the cash flows, not on tangible net worth.
There is also demand cyclicality the multiple does not advertise. Occupational health rides employment. Visits for injury care, physicals, and pre-employment screening track hiring and headcount, so a softer labor market would pressure exactly the volume line the bull case needs. The dividend is token, $0.0625 a quarter, below a 1% yield, so it screens out of the dividend models entirely and offers little support if the stock derates. The bet a buyer is making here is not that Concentra is a bad business. It is that a leveraged, recently-separated company has to execute cleanly through a labor cycle to justify a price the conservative methods already call full.
Valuation
At $28.56, inverting the price puts the market at roughly 16x company-wide operating income, which solves to about negative 4% annual operating growth over a five-year stage, computed at a 7.2% cost of capital with a 4% terminal rate. That is a within-range, even undemanding, bar for a network that grew adjusted EBITDA 17.6% last quarter and raised full-year guidance. Each percentage point of cost of capital moves the implied growth figure by roughly 7 points, so the read is sensitive to rate assumptions, but the direction is clear: the price is not pricing in the growth the company is currently posting.
The model families split the way they usually do for a leveraged grower. The asset-based lens is the most cautious, with simple excess return near $15 and Earnings Power Value near $12, both reflecting a thin $3.31 book value per share and a no-growth frame. The earnings-power and asset methods read the price as expensive on those terms. The relative-multiple lens lands close to the price, near $26 at a sector-median 18x P/E. The forward-growth methods reach highest: the exit-multiple DCF lands around $48 on an EV/EBITDA exit near 13x, and the Peter Lynch screen lands near $44 on an estimated PEG below 1. The blended X-ray sits around $36.
The honest summary is that the answer turns on which lens you trust. If you weight the no-growth floors, the leverage makes the price look full. If you weight the cadence the company is actually running, the price embeds a contraction that is not in the numbers, and the forward methods say there is room. The deciding variable is whether double-digit revenue growth survives the Select Medical separation and the next turn of the labor cycle.
Catalysts
The separation from Select Medical is the near-term swing factor. Management said on the Q1 2026 call that the initiatives to stand up Concentra's own infrastructure are running ahead of schedule and are expected to support margin enhancement through 2026. Watch the next two quarters for evidence that separation costs are landing as planned and that the promised margin lift is showing up rather than slipping.
On-site clinics are the growth catalyst to track. That business approached a $150M run-rate in Q1 2026 with an active pipeline, and new contracted employer sites convert one-time visit revenue into recurring relationships. Faster on-site signings would extend the volume story; a stalled pipeline would undercut it.
The full-year guide raise sets the bar for upcoming prints. Concentra now targets 2026 revenue of $2.275B to $2.375B, adjusted EBITDA of $460M to $480M, and free cash flow of $215M to $235M, with net leverage around 3.0x. The next earnings reports are the test of whether the company holds or raises that frame. Quarterly patient-visit growth and rate trends are the cleanest read on whether the labor cycle is still cooperating. The board's $0.0625 quarterly dividend, declared for June 2026, is small but signals management's comfort with the cash-flow base.
Sources: Concentra Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript (Motley Fool), CON news (StockTitan), CON overview (StockAnalysis)
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Occupational health services (reported)
- SGRY (Surgery Partners, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …consist of scheduled procedures and office visits that occur during weekday business hours. In addition, revenue in the fourth quarter could also be impacted by an increased utilization of services due to annual deductibles which are not usually met until later in the year and also as patients utilize their health…
- FY2025 10-K: …need laws. Our surgical facilities are subject to state licensing requirements. Although our surgical hospitals primarily or exclusively provide surgical services, they must meet all applicable requirements for general hospital licensure. In addition, based on the specific operations of our surgical facilities, these…
- ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …or entities to which physicians refer, and (m) physician-owned entities (frequently referred to as physician-owned distributorships or PODs) that derive revenue from selling, or arranging for the sale of, implantable medical devices ordered by their physician-owners for use on procedures that physician-owners perform…
- FY2025 10-K: …because of professional liability and other claims brought against our hospitals, physician practices, outpatient facilities or other business operations or against healthcare providers that provide services at our facilities; 26 • exposure to certain risks and uncertainties by the JVs through which we conduct a…
- MD (Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: Statements of Income and Comprehensive Income. See the Consolidated Financial Statements for the Company's segment revenue, significant segment expenses, other segment expenses and net income. Revenue Recognition Patient service revenue is recognized at the time services are provided by the Company's affiliated…
- FY2025 10-K: …and Benefits We value our colleagues' contributions to our success and strive to provide all of our colleagues with a competitive and comprehensive total rewards package. This includes robust compensation and benefits programs to help meet the needs of our affiliated physicians, other clinical professionals and…
- SEM (SELECT MEDICAL HOLDINGS CORP)
- FY2025 10-K: …RVUs. Modifiers to Identify Services of Physical Therapy Assistants or Occupational Therapy Assistants In the final 2020 MPFS rule, CMS clarified that when the physical therapist is involved for the entire duration of the service and the PTA provides skilled therapy alongside the physical therapist, the CQ modifier…
- FY2025 10-K: …our standardized resource management programs. Outpatient Rehabilitation We are the largest operator of outpatient rehabilitation clinics in the United States based on number of facilities, with 1,917 facilities throughout 39 states and the District of Columbia as of December 31, 2025. Our outpatient rehabilitation…
- AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …to patients including private duty nursing and therapy services, (ii) adult home health and hospice services (collectively "patient revenue"); and (iii) from the delivery of enteral nutrition and other products to patients ("product revenue"). The services provided by the Company have no fixed duration and can be…
- FY2025 10-K: …home health and hospice services or similar services. If states with such existing laws remove such barriers, we could face increased competition in these states. We may encounter increased competition in the future that could negatively impact patient referrals to us, limit our ability to maintain or increase our…
- ADUS (Addus HomeCare Corp)
- FY2025 10-K: …oral care, feeding and dressing, medication reminders, meal planning and preparation, housekeeping and transportation services. Many consumers need such services on a long-term basis to address chronic or acute conditions. Our personal care segment also includes staffing services, with clients including assisted…
- FY2025 10-K: …local laws and regulations relating to employment, including OSHA requirements, wage and hour and other compensation requirements (including disclosure requirements), employee benefits, providing leave and sick pay, employment insurance, proper classification of workers as employees or independent contractors,…
- OPCH (OPTION CARE HEALTH, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …Option Care Health, Inc., a Delaware corporation, as borrower, each other Loan Party (as defined therein) party thereto, each 2025 Refinancing Term Lender (as defined therein) party thereto, each 2025 Incremental Term Lender (as defined therein), each Extending Revolving Credit Lender (as defined therein) and Bank of…
- FY2025 10-K: , "our", or the "Company") is the largest independent provider of home and alternate site infusion services through its national network of 196 locations in 43 states. Option Care Health draws on over 40 years of clinical care experience to offer patient-centered, cost-effective infusion therapy. Option Care Health's…
- BTSG (BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …donations of cybersecurity technology and related services, and amended an exception for electronic health records items and services. These changes in federal regulations are anticipated to have a significant impact on healthcare providers and other stakeholders. In addition, we anticipate that additional changes…
- FY2025 10-K: …we centralize on-call and tele-triage, perform high-risk patient monitoring and intervention, conduct "Aftercare" patient calls, and manage care coordination opportunities across the enterprise. Rehab Care Our Rehab Care services provide highly-skilled patient-centric clinical care to Senior and Specialty clients and…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.