CONCENTRA GROUP HOLDINGS PARENT, INC. (CON): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $34.47, CONCENTRA GROUP HOLDINGS PARENT, INC. (CON) is priced for -1.6% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-25.

Generated: 2026-09-07 · Exported: 2026-09-09 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CON

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 7.3% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: n/a

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=18)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

• Concentra operates 628 occupational health center facilities across the United States plus 411 permanent on-site locations inside employer workplaces, and it earns a 16.4% trailing operating margin on 2.23 billion dollars of revenue, roughly triple what SEM, the company it was separated from, earns on its own revenue.
• Someone else sets the price of most of what it sells: the 10-K lists Cost containment initiatives or state fee schedule changes undertaken by state workers' compensation boards or commissions as a direct threat to revenue and profitability.
• Volume is the near-term tell, with workers' compensation visits per day up 9.6% in the first quarter of 2026, and the next reading arrives with second-quarter results on August 6, 2026.

Bull Case

Lenders repriced this company's debt in the space of a single amendment, and that is about as unsentimental an outside opinion as a business ever gets. In March 2025 the revolving facility went from 400 million to 450 million dollars and the spread on it came down from Term SOFR plus 2.50% to Term SOFR plus 2.00%, with the 10-K noting the term loan carried an interest rate of 5.72% at the end of that year. Management then hedged part of what remained floating, entering a derivative swap contract effective on March 3, 2025, which limits the Term SOFR rate to a fixed rate of 3.829% on $300 million of principal outstanding under our term loan. Banks do not cut the price of a credit line for a borrower whose cash flows they doubt, and a management team that locks its rate out to 2028 is telling you it expects to still be servicing that paper then.

What sits behind the credit is a network that is genuinely difficult to assemble. The 10-K describes a robust strategy of acquiring existing occupational health centers and building new de novo centers as a key part of our growth into the largest provider of occupational health services in the United States by number of locations, and it is candid about who it is competing with: Independent occupational health practices are a significant source of competition and are mainly comprised of groups with between 1 and 3 locations dedicated to a single market. That sentence is the whole moat argument in one line. A national logistics firm with warehouses in thirty states needs one vendor who can handle an injured worker in all thirty, bill the right commission in each, and return a return-to-work determination in a format its insurer accepts. A three-clinic operator cannot bid on that contract no matter how good its clinicians are.

The margin shows what that structural position is worth. Concentra earns 16.4% on trailing revenue. In its comparison set, SGRY earns 11.8%, MD earns 11.3%, AVAH earns 10.9%, ADUS earns 9.8%, and both SEM and OPCH earn under 6%. The gap comes from the shape of the work rather than from cleverness: visits are short, scheduled during business hours, delivered in leased clinical space rather than hospital plant, and paid by employers and their carriers instead of by patients with deductibles.

The volume line has been going the right way. In the first quarter of 2026 workers' compensation visits per day rose 9.6% to 25,132 from 22,935 and employer services visits per day rose 4.8% to 28,231 from 26,927, helped by organic growth and by the Nova Medical Centers acquisition, with revenue per visit rising alongside. Set that against what today's price actually asks of the business. At roughly 17 times company-wide operating income, the price embeds operating profit drifting slightly lower over the next five years, not compounding. The bull case here does not require a new market, a new product, or a heroic margin. It requires the visit counts to keep doing approximately what they did in the first quarter while the term loan amortizes.

Bear Case

Occupational health demand is downstream of two variables no management team controls: how many people are working, and how often they are hurt at work. Concentra sells visits, and visits appear when payrolls expand and workplaces generate injuries. That makes the top line a claim on the employment cycle wearing healthcare clothing, and it means a soft labor market arrives at the clinic door before it arrives in any economic release. The 10-K puts the constraint plainly among its risk factors: The nature of the markets that we serve may constrain our ability to realize reimbursement for the services delivered.

Price, meanwhile, is administered rather than negotiated. The company describes a system in which reimbursement is by a state fee schedule and state workers' compensation commissions seek to control healthcare costs by reducing prescribed rates of reimbursements through fee schedule modifications, and where no schedule exists, healthcare providers are generally reimbursed based on UCR rates charged in the particular state in which the services are provided. Given that we do not control these processes, we may be subject to financial risks, including decreased revenue and profitability, if individual jurisdictions move against them. Revenue per visit, in other words, is a policy variable in most of the states Concentra operates in, and policy variables move on legislative calendars rather than commercial ones.

The cost side is administered too, just by a different mechanism. The same filing warns that We may be required to continue to enhance wages and benefits to recruit and retain clinicians and that turnover brings increased overtime to meet demand, increased compensation and bonuses to attract and retain employees, and incremental training costs. Put the two disclosures side by side and the shape of the risk is clear enough: commissions can lower the price, the clinical labor market can raise the cost, and the 16.4% operating margin sits between them with no pricing lever of its own. General and administrative expense already ran 9.7% of revenue in the first quarter of 2026 against 9.3% a year earlier, which is a small move in the wrong direction on the one cost line management does control.

Then there is what the debt does to a modest disappointment. Net debt runs about 1.51 billion dollars on the funded borrowings build, or 4.2 times operating profit, against a term loan the latest quarterly filing sizes at 940.5 million dollars. The derivative contracts fix or cap the rate on 300 million dollars of that principal and expire on February 29, 2028. This is where the methods that value earnings power part company with the price: they capitalize a normalized, no-growth operating profit and then subtract the borrowings, which puts the entire weight of the capital structure on the equity, and on that reading the price is a long way clear of what they support. Concentra does not need to shrink dramatically for that to matter. Because the borrowings do not shrink when operating profit does, a fee schedule cut of a few points in a large state compresses what is left for shareholders by considerably more than a few points.

The fair concession is that today's price is not asking for a miracle. It embeds mild decline, not acceleration, so the bear is not arguing that expectations are absurd. The argument is narrower and harder to dismiss: a business whose selling price is set by regulators and whose input cost is set by a tight clinical labor market has thin control over its own margin, and it carries that margin over four years of borrowings.

Valuation

Run today's price backwards and it values the whole enterprise at roughly 17 times company-wide operating income, a multiple that embeds operating profit declining about 2.1% a year over a five-year stage. That is worth pausing on, because it inverts the usual framing. The market is not asking Concentra to grow into its price. It is asking Concentra not to shrink much while it works down its borrowings. The figure is a single solve under fixed discount and fade assumptions, and it is sensitive to them: a one point change in the cost of capital moves the implied operating growth figure by about seven points, so read it as a direction rather than a measurement.

Where the methods disagree, they are really disagreeing about the debt. The peer-multiple methods and the forward-growth cash-flow methods both land above today's price, the second group only because the exit multiple it projects is the one the shares carry now, held level for six years. The asset-value and earnings-power methods land under it, with the price sitting about 72% above the asset-value central estimate and about 144% above the earnings-power one. The mechanism behind that spread is not subtle. Earnings-power capitalizes a normalized three-year average operating profit at the cost of capital, credits it with no growth at all, and then deducts net borrowings, so every dollar of the term loan comes straight out of the equity. The revenue and earnings multiple lenses apply sector norms to Concentra's own revenue and earnings per share and never see the balance sheet. Two honest methods, one leverage assumption, opposite answers.

The margin is the fact the multiple lenses are reacting to. Concentra earns 16.4% on trailing revenue, against 11.8% at SGRY, 11.3% at MD, 10.9% at AVAH, 9.8% at ADUS and under 6% at both SEM and OPCH. Applying a healthcare-sector revenue multiple to a company earning nearly three times the operating margin of its former parent produces a number well above the current price, which is arithmetic rather than insight. The useful question is whether that margin is a structural property of occupational health, where visits are short and employer-paid, or a temporary spread between a fee schedule that has not been cut yet and a wage bill that has not fully caught up.

Solvency bounds the answer more than it settles it. The company is not burning cash, capital spending is modest at 11.1 million dollars of property and equipment purchases in the first quarter of 2026, and the term loan amortizes in equal quarterly installments at a 5.72% rate as of the end of 2025. Against that, net borrowings of about 1.51 billion dollars represent 4.2 times operating profit, and the rate protection on 300 million dollars of principal runs out on February 29, 2028. Two lines decide how this resolves, and they move independently: visits per day, which rose 9.6% on the workers' compensation side in the first quarter, and revenue per visit, which state commissions set.

Catalysts

The first quarter of 2026, reported on May 8, 2026, delivered double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth on strong workers' compensation volumes, and management raised full-year 2026 guidance across revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow at the same time. The filed quarter shows the composition of that result: workers' compensation visits per day up 9.6% to 25,132 from 22,935 and employer services visits per day up 4.8% to 28,231 from 26,927, driven by organic growth and by the Nova Medical Centers acquisition, with revenue per visit rising as well.

The next reading lands on August 6, 2026. The line to watch is not the volume figure, which has been the easy part, but whether that volume reaches operating profit: general and administrative expense ran 9.7% of revenue in the first quarter against 9.3% a year earlier, and the 10-Q attributes part of that to costs carried since the separation into a standalone public company. A quarter in which visits rise and the administrative ratio falls back would settle a good deal of the argument about whether the network scales.

Sell-side coverage has been building rather than shrinking. William Blair initiated coverage with an Outperform rating on July 1, 2026, Goldman Sachs initiated with a Buy rating on June 10, 2026, and Truist raised its rating target on July 13, 2026 while keeping a Buy. Separately, the company continued opening centers through the summer, with new sites in Goodyear, Arizona on June 24, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri on July 13, 2026 and Boise, Idaho on July 19, 2026, which is the de novo program described in the 10-K showing up as actual doors.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Occupational health services (reported)

• SGRY (Surgery Partners, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …consist of scheduled procedures and office visits that occur during weekday business hours. In addition, revenue in the fourth quarter could also be impacted by an increased utilization of services due to annual deductibles which are not usually met until later in the year and also as patients utilize their health…
• FY2025 10-K: …need laws. Our surgical facilities are subject to state licensing requirements. Although our surgical hospitals primarily or exclusively provide surgical services, they must meet all applicable requirements for general hospital licensure. In addition, based on the specific operations of our surgical facilities, these…
• ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …or entities to which physicians refer, and (m) physician-owned entities (frequently referred to as physician-owned distributorships or PODs) that derive revenue from selling, or arranging for the sale of, implantable medical devices ordered by their physician-owners for use on procedures that physician-owners perform…
• FY2025 10-K: …because of professional liability and other claims brought against our hospitals, physician practices, outpatient facilities or other business operations or against healthcare providers that provide services at our facilities; 26 • exposure to certain risks and uncertainties by the JVs through which we conduct a…
• MD (Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: Statements of Income and Comprehensive Income. See the Consolidated Financial Statements for the Company's segment revenue, significant segment expenses, other segment expenses and net income. Revenue Recognition Patient service revenue is recognized at the time services are provided by the Company's affiliated…
• FY2025 10-K: …and Benefits We value our colleagues' contributions to our success and strive to provide all of our colleagues with a competitive and comprehensive total rewards package. This includes robust compensation and benefits programs to help meet the needs of our affiliated physicians, other clinical professionals and…
• SEM (SELECT MEDICAL HOLDINGS CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …RVUs. Modifiers to Identify Services of Physical Therapy Assistants or Occupational Therapy Assistants In the final 2020 MPFS rule, CMS clarified that when the physical therapist is involved for the entire duration of the service and the PTA provides skilled therapy alongside the physical therapist, the CQ modifier…
• FY2025 10-K: …our standardized resource management programs. Outpatient Rehabilitation We are the largest operator of outpatient rehabilitation clinics in the United States based on number of facilities, with 1,917 facilities throughout 39 states and the District of Columbia as of December 31, 2025. Our outpatient rehabilitation…
• AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …to patients including private duty nursing and therapy services, (ii) adult home health and hospice services (collectively "patient revenue"); and (iii) from the delivery of enteral nutrition and other products to patients ("product revenue"). The services provided by the Company have no fixed duration and can be…
• FY2025 10-K: …home health and hospice services or similar services. If states with such existing laws remove such barriers, we could face increased competition in these states. We may encounter increased competition in the future that could negatively impact patient referrals to us, limit our ability to maintain or increase our…
• ADUS (Addus HomeCare Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …oral care, feeding and dressing, medication reminders, meal planning and preparation, housekeeping and transportation services. Many consumers need such services on a long-term basis to address chronic or acute conditions. Our personal care segment also includes staffing services, with clients including assisted…
• FY2025 10-K: …local laws and regulations relating to employment, including OSHA requirements, wage and hour and other compensation requirements (including disclosure requirements), employee benefits, providing leave and sick pay, employment insurance, proper classification of workers as employees or independent contractors,…
• OPCH (OPTION CARE HEALTH, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Option Care Health, Inc., a Delaware corporation, as borrower, each other Loan Party (as defined therein) party thereto, each 2025 Refinancing Term Lender (as defined therein) party thereto, each 2025 Incremental Term Lender (as defined therein), each Extending Revolving Credit Lender (as defined therein) and Bank of…
• FY2025 10-K: , "our", or the "Company") is the largest independent provider of home and alternate site infusion services through its national network of 196 locations in 43 states. Option Care Health draws on over 40 years of clinical care experience to offer patient-centered, cost-effective infusion therapy. Option Care Health's…
• BTSG (BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …donations of cybersecurity technology and related services, and amended an exception for electronic health records items and services. These changes in federal regulations are anticipated to have a significant impact on healthcare providers and other stakeholders. In addition, we anticipate that additional changes…
• FY2025 10-K: …we centralize on-call and tele-triage, perform high-risk patient monitoring and intervention, conduct "Aftercare" patient calls, and manage care coordination opportunities across the enterprise. Rehab Care Our Rehab Care services provide highly-skilled patient-centric clinical care to Senior and Specialty clients and…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.