CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY CO (CNI): what the price assumes
boothcheck covers CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY CO (CNI) but does not put one priced-in number on it: here the defensible answer is the evidence rather than a point estimate. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating. Narrative composed 2026-08-08.
Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CNI
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | CNI |
| Company | CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY CO |
| Sector / Industry | Industrials |
| Current price | $126.01/sh |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Multiple paid | 19x operating income |
How unusual the bet is: n/a
Valuation X-Ray
Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 7.68x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 5.37x | 1 | expensive |
| Relative | 7.21x | 3 | expensive |
| Growth | 2.71x | 2 | expensive |
Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.3%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=10)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $0.00 | — | no | FCF base $0.9B, growth -10% (input: historical growth), terminal g 0.5%, WACC 8.3%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $115.92 | 1.09x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 43.7x / 45.7x / 47.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $64.63 | 1.95x | yes | P/E 36.52x (blended: static sector reference 20x + trailing (TTM) 75x), scenarios: 31.0x / 36.5x / 42.1x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 22.82x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $18.15 | 6.94x | yes | BV/sh $25.86, ROE (TTM) 6.5%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $14.97 | 8.42x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $29.08 | 4.33x | yes | Rev $4.3B, growth -15% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 6.8x / 8.0x / 9.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | $14.53 | 8.67x | yes | BV $25.86 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 6.5% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 4.2%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $35.52 | 3.55x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $2.17 × BVPS $25.86) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $17.47 | 7.21x | yes | EBITDA $2.03B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 12601.00x | yes | FCF $904.4M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median) |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $1.82 | 69.24x | yes | EPS $2.17 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $14.11 | 8.93x | yes | Revenue $4.33B × sector P/S 2.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $23.45 | 5.37x | yes | EPS $2.17 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $15.1b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 4.03x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 3.19x |
| Interest coverage | 7.2x |
| Burning cash | no |
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Core business (reported)
- CP (CANADIAN PACIFIC KANSAS CITY LTD/CN)
- FY2025 10-K: …of other transportation links, such as ports, handling facilities, customer facilities, and other railways. A prolonged service disruption at one of these entities could have a material adverse effect on the Company's results of operations, financial condition, and liquidity. The Company is dependent on certain key…
- FY2025 10-K: …adversely affect the Company's operations. Changes in employee demographics, training requirements, and the availability of qualified personnel, particularly locomotive engineers and trainpersons, could negatively impact the Company's ability to meet demand for rail services. Unpredictable increases in the demand for…
- CSX (CSX CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …a railroad switches cars for a customer or another railroad. Segments The Company has two operating segments: rail and trucking. Although the Company provides a breakdown of revenue by line of business, the overall financial and operational performance of the railroad is analyzed as one operating segment due to the…
- FY2025 10-K: …the flexibility of trucks and offers a cost and environmental advantage over long-haul trucking. Through a network of approximately 30 terminals, the intermodal business serves all major markets east of the Mississippi River and transports mainly manufactured consumer goods in containers, providing customers with…
- UNP (UNION PACIFIC CORP)
- FY2025 10-K: …for rail transportation; natural gas prices, weather conditions, and demand for other energy sources may impact the coal market; crude oil prices and spreads may drive demand for petroleum products and drilling materials; available truck capacity could impact our intermodal business; and international trade…
- FY2025 10-K: …providers - We face competition from other railroads, motor carriers, ships, barges, and pipelines. Our main railroad competitor is Burlington Northern Santa Fe LLC. Its primary subsidiary, BNSF Railway Company (BNSF), operates parallel routes in many of our main traffic corridors. In addition, we operate in…
- NSC (NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP)
- FY2025 10-K: …enabled rail carriers to innovate, invest in their infrastructure, and compete for business, thereby contributing to the economic health of the nation and to the revitalization of the industry. Accordingly, we will continue to oppose efforts to reimpose increased economic regulation. Railroads are also subject to the…
- FY2025 10-K: …containers and trailers. These shipments are handled on behalf of intermodal marketing companies, international steamship lines, premium customers, and asset-owning companies. In 2025, we handled 4.1 million intermodal units, which accounted for 25% of our total railway operating revenues. COAL - Coal revenues…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.