CUMMINS INC (CMI): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $564.85, CUMMINS INC (CMI) is priced for +20.3% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-25.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CMI

Headline

FieldValue
TickerCMI
CompanyCUMMINS INC
Sector / IndustryIndustrials
Current price$564.85/sh
CompositionUnited States 56% / China 10% / India 5% / Other international 29%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Implied growth20.3%
Multiple paid22x operating income

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.5% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

ReferenceValue
vs own history+0.25σ
cohort percentile (of 225 peers)56

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset2.59x5expensive
Earnings2.80x4expensive
Relative0
Growth1.55x3expensive

Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=12)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$235.602.40xyesFCF base $2.7B, growth 0% (input: historical growth), terminal g 0.5%, WACC 9.2%, 5yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$473.971.19xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 16.4x / 18.4x / 20.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr
Relative ValuationRelativenoP/E 20.99x (blended: static sector reference 18x + trailing (TTM) 28x), scenarios: 17.7x / 21.0x / 24.2x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 13.91x
Simple DDMGrowthno
Two-Stage DDMGrowthno
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$218.352.59xyesBV/sh $89.51, ROE (TTM) 22.6%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$339.731.66xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$364.021.55xyesRev $33.9B, growth 0% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.9x / 2.3x / 2.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Growth-Adjusted P/ERelativeno
Margin TrajectoryGrowthno
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$195.812.88xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $3.13B × (1−27%) / WACC 9.2% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset$316.111.79xyesBV $89.51 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 22.6% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$196.902.87xyes√(22.5 × EPS $19.25 × BVPS $89.51) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelativenoEBITDA $4.12B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$225.782.50xyesFCF $2671.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarningsno
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$130.104.34xyesEPS $19.25 × (8.5 + 2×-0.2%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$66.648.48xyesBV $89.51 × (ROIC 6.9% / WACC 9.2%)
P/Sales SectorRelativenoRevenue $33.89B × sector P/S 2.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelativeno
Earnings YieldEarnings$208.112.71xyesEPS $19.25 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelativeno
Clinical Phase NPVGrowthno
MertonAssetno
V5 Mechanicalno

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

UnitRoleValuation basisRevenueReported profitValue evidenceStatus
Engineoperatingenterprise$8.1bwithheldunresolved no unit value
Componentsoperatingenterprise$8.6bwithheldunresolved no unit value
Distributionoperatingenterprise$12.4bwithheldunresolved no unit value
Power Systemsoperatingenterprise$4.1bwithheldunresolved no unit value
Acceleraoperatingenterprise$423.0mwithheldunresolved no unit value

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$4.2b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)1.49x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)1.08x
Share count CAGR (buyback)-0.8%
Burning cashno

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

The most interesting number in the recent filings has nothing to do with trucks. In the March 2026 quarter, Power Systems sales rose 19 percent, and the FY2026 quarterly report attributes it to "higher demand in power generation markets, especially in China and North America." Distribution sales rose 7 percent on the same driver. Meanwhile the truck-facing business shrank. A company most investors file under diesel engines for lorries is currently being pulled along by demand for electricity, and that is not what the label on the tin says.

The generator business is not a side project. The FY2025 annual report describes the segment as designing and selling "standby and prime power generators, engines (16 liters and larger) for standby and prime power generator sets and industrial applications (including mining, oil and gas, marine, rail and defense), alternators and other power components." Those are the machines that get installed when a grid connection is either unavailable or untrusted. Whatever is happening to electricity demand in China and North America is arriving at Cummins as orders for large engines, which is exactly the product it has been refining for a century.

The second unexpected move is a retreat, and it counts as good news for a shareholder. The zero-emissions arm has been cut back rather than scaled up. The FY2025 report states that the company intends to "stop new commercial activity in the electrolyzer space, subject to information and consultation in accordance with local legal requirements" while continuing to fulfil existing commitments, and explains why in one line: "The slower adoption of zero-emission solutions reduced Accelera's near-term revenue outlook, prompting significant restructuring actions and a refined strategic investment approach." Management stopped funding a market that did not arrive on schedule. Shareholders were paying for that optionality out of current earnings; now they are paying less.

What makes the core durable is unglamorous and hard to replicate: the service footprint. Cummins reaches customers through roughly "640 wholly-owned, joint venture and independent distributor locations and more than 13,000 Cummins certified dealer locations in approximately 190 countries and territories." An engine that fails in a remote mine or a data center basement needs a technician and a part within hours, and that network is the reason a fleet buyer chooses one supplier over a cheaper one. Regulation reinforces it. The company frames emissions capability as competitive rather than merely compliant, noting that its ability to meet current and future standards "is an essential element in maintaining our leadership position in regulated markets." Every tightening of a standard raises the engineering cost of entry.

The financial result of all this is a manufacturer that behaves better than manufacturers usually do. Revenue of $33.89B produced $4.161B of operating income and $2.671B of free cash flow over the trailing year, with a trailing return on equity of 22.6%. Net debt sits at about one times operating profit and operating income covered the interest bill 12.9 times. That is a cyclical business carrying a balance sheet built for the bottom of a cycle rather than the top, and it is currently sitting near the bottom of the truck cycle with the power business growing anyway.

Bear Case

The structural truth is simple and a holder would rather not sit with it: this is a maker of truck engines in the weak phase of a truck cycle, carrying a price that assumes it is something else. Engine segment sales fell 7 percent in 2025, which the FY2025 report attributes to "lower demand in North American heavy-duty and medium-duty truck markets", and the March 2026 quarter records the same weakness in medium-duty and heavy-duty truck markets, offset by power generation. At about 23 times company-wide operating income, today's price embeds operating-profit growth of roughly 24.6% a year for five consecutive years. Among comparable fast growers, only about 31% have sustained a pace like that for five years, and those companies were not usually selling to freight cycles.

No family of valuation method reaches this price. The closest is the peer-multiple lens, and the price still sits about 46% above its central estimate. The price sits about 231% above the earnings-power family's central estimate. That family values the company on what it currently produces, with nothing added for the future. The asset lens is further away again. That combination has a plain reading: the price is not defended by any conventional frame, and the entire case rests on a step change in what Cummins earns rather than on a re-rating of what it earns now.

The customer problem is the mechanism most likely to prevent that step change. Cummins sells engines to companies that also make engines. Its own risk disclosure names the exposure directly, warning about any significant reduction in the level of engine production outsourcing by its truck manufacturer and OEM customers. The evidence that this is not hypothetical sits in the peer filings. CNH tells investors its internal combustion engines "are primarily supplied by FPT Industrial S.p.A., a company controlled by Iveco N.V.", an affiliated supplier rather than a merchant one. PCAR describes its own research and development running to "demonstration and development projects for Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF vehicles, including battery-electric, hydrogen combustion and hybrid technologies." In the power generation market that is currently carrying the growth, CAT is already there, listing "Reciprocating engine-powered generator sets" among its Power and Energy products. The best end market Cummins has is also the one where its largest competitor is strongest.

Then there is the geography. Only about 56% of revenue comes from the United States; China is about 10%, India about 5%, and other international markets about 29%. That diversification is an asset in a normal decade and a liability in this one. The FY2025 report flags that "The potential for trade disruption, including embargoes, sanctions and export controls, could cause production disruptions and negatively impact earnings", and the March 2026 quarterly report lists increases in costs and tariffs among the challenges to its own outlook. A tariff on a component crossing a border twice during assembly is a margin event, and the trailing 12.4% operating margin does not have enormous room in it.

None of this is a solvency argument, and it would be dishonest to dress it as one. Net debt runs at about one times operating profit and interest was covered 12.9 times over the trailing year. The company will comfortably survive a weak cycle. The question is what the shares are worth while it does, because a business earning a 12.4% operating margin at 23 times that income has already been paid in advance for a recovery that the truck market has not yet delivered.

Valuation

At $664.60 a share, valuing this cyclical manufacturer comes down to deciding which year you are looking at. Over the trailing twelve months, Cummins turned $33.89B of revenue into $4.161B of operating income, a 12.4% operating margin. The market is paying about 23 times that operating income, and the assumption embedded in it is operating-profit growth of roughly 24.6% a year for five years. That is not an ordinary industrial expectation. The company has posted growth at that kind of rate before, so the annual pace is not the stretch. Sustaining it for five straight years is, and only about three in ten fast growers have managed that.

The methods available for cross-checking all come up short, which is unusual and worth stating plainly. Peer multiples land closest, with the price about 46% above that family's central estimate. It sits about 55% above the forward-growth family. And it sits about 231% above the earnings-power family. That last family does nothing more elaborate than capitalize the free cash flow of $2.671B the company produced over the trailing year and hold it flat forever. When no family reaches the price, the price is not expressing a preference among methods. It is expressing a view that the business is changing into a different business.

The geographic mix explains part of why someone would believe that. The United States accounts for roughly 56% of revenue, China about 10%, India about 5%, and other international markets about 29%. The power generation demand that lifted Power Systems sales 19 percent in the March 2026 quarter showed up in China and North America simultaneously, which is a different pattern from the freight cycle that has historically driven the Engine segment. Two of the segments are now being pulled by electricity infrastructure rather than by truck orders, and that is the observable fact the growth assumption is built on.

The peer set sharpens where the risk in that assumption sits. CAT lists reciprocating engine-powered generator sets in its own Power and Energy portfolio and describes operating "under highly competitive conditions", while GEV names Hitachi Energy, Siemens Energy and Schneider Electric among competitors on the electrification side. The market Cummins is growing into is not an empty one. On the truck side, PCAR runs its own development programmes across Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF. This is a strong company competing against other strong companies, in both of its stories.

The balance sheet does not constrain any of it. Net debt of $4.155B against $7.337B of gross borrowings works out to about one times operating profit, and interest was covered 12.9 times over the trailing year. Stated book value is $88.98 per share, and the trailing return on equity is 22.6%. The count of shares outstanding has drifted down slightly over the four years to March 2026. What all of that means for the buyer is that the downside here is not financial distress. It is the ordinary risk of paying a growth price for a cycle, and finding out which one you bought.

Catalysts

The clearest dated statement about the next twelve months is management's own. In the March 2026 quarterly report the company said it expects demand for medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks in North America "to begin improving over the remainder of 2026", and that it anticipates its aftermarket business will remain stable, driven primarily by the Engine and Power Systems businesses. Against that, the same filing lists increases in costs, tariffs and other inflationary pressures among the challenges, along with the risk that trade disruption reduces business confidence and raises product costs. Those two statements are the bull and bear case for 2026 in the company's own words, printed one after the other.

The power generation cycle is the other thing moving. Power Systems sales rose 19 percent in the March 2026 quarter and Distribution sales rose 7 percent, both attributed to higher demand in power generation markets in China and North America. Watch whether that persists into the back half of 2026, because it is currently offsetting the truck weakness rather than adding to a recovery.

Two structural items are already behind the numbers and worth holding in mind when reading year-over-year comparisons. The company divested Atmus on March 18, 2024, which removed a filtration business from the reported base. And in the fourth quarter of 2025 it decided to stop new commercial activity in the electrolyzer space while fulfilling existing customer commitments, recording additional charges in that quarter after concluding that hydrogen and alternative power market conditions had deteriorated and government incentives had been reduced. The zero-emissions segment is now a smaller call on capital than it was a year ago.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Engine (reported)

Components (reported)

Distribution (reported)

Power Systems (reported)

Accelera (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed April 2026 · Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q · FY2025 Form 10-K, filed February 2026 · FY2025 Form 10-K

View the full interactive CMI report on boothcheck