Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI): what the price requires
At today's price, Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI) is priced for +1.8% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CIGI
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | CIGI |
| Company | Colliers International Group Inc. |
| Current price | $96.50/sh |
| Composition | Leasing 21% / Capital Markets 16% / Property management 10% / Valuation and advisory 10% / Engineering 31% / IM - Advisory and other 9% / IM - Performance fees 1% / Other 3% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 1.7% |
| Operating margin today | 6.7% |
| Margin compression implied | -5.0pp |
| Implied growth | 1.8% |
| Multiple paid | 18x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 7.5% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~7.3pp.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~13.7%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.26σ |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.63x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 3.82x | 4 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.63x | 6 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.87x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.6%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $124.56 | 0.77x | yes | FCF base $0.3B, growth 8% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 7.6%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $111.07 | 0.87x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 9.0x / 11.0x / 13.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $207.55 | 0.46x | yes | P/E 26.49x (blended: static sector reference 35x + trailing (TTM) 14x), scenarios: 21.9x / 26.5x / 31.1x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 20x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $47.52 | 2.03x | yes | BV/sh $30.02, ROE (TTM) 14.6%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $59.12 | 1.63x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $80.87 | 1.19x | yes | Rev $5.6B, growth 8% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 0.7x / 0.9x / 1.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $84.36 | 1.14x | yes | FFO/share $7.03, growth 11% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 9y median), PEG=1.91 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $13.51 | 7.14x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.27B × (1−26%) / WACC 7.6% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $60.81 | 1.59x | yes | BV $30.02 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 14.6% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $68.90 | 1.40x | yes | √(22.5 × FFO/share $7.03 × BVPS $30.02) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $207.41 | 0.47x | yes | EBITDA $0.63B × sector EV/EBITDA 20.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $15.15 | 6.37x | yes | FCF $251.4M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $3.38 | 28.55x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.20B (FCF $0.25B − SBC $0.06B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median) |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $185.41 | 0.52x | yes | FFO/share $7.03 × (8.5 + 2×11.5%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $31.22 | 3.09x | yes | BV $30.02 × (ROIC 7.9% / WACC 7.6%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $652.87 | 0.15x | yes | Revenue $5.56B × sector P/S 6.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $121.11 | 0.80x | yes | FFO/share $7.03 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 11.5% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 9y median)) → PE 17.2x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $76.00 | 1.27x | yes | FFO/share $7.03 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | $99.67 | 0.97x | yes | FFO/share $7.03 × 14.2x P/FFO (route cohort median, n=85); FFO $0.36B (FFO incl. D&A + impairments, FY2025, companyfacts), shares 51M |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $1.4b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 5.19x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 3.83x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 4.4% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- The price at $91.37 sits in the middle of the method spread, not above all of it. The funds-from-operations multiple lands at $93.86, essentially at the price, while peer P/E methods reach above $200 and the conservative earnings frames sit far below.
- The business has shifted toward recurring revenue: management says more than 70% of earnings now come from resilient lines like engineering, investment management, property management, and mortgage servicing, which dampens the cyclicality of brokerage.
- Recent results are strong. Q1 2026 consolidated revenue rose 15% to $1.31 billion with Capital Markets up 47%, and management reaffirmed mid-teens revenue, EBITDA, and EPS growth for 2026.
Bull Case
Where the price sits against the methods tells the story for Colliers, and the most relevant frame lands right on top of it. As a commercial real estate services firm with a large recurring base, the funds-from-operations multiple is the natural anchor, and it reads $93.86 against a $91.37 price (June 27, 2026), calibrated to a route-cohort median P/FFO of about 13.4x. The peer earnings multiples reach much higher, relative valuation at $203.40 and EV/EBITDA relative at $207.41, and the growth methods bracket the price, with DCF perpetual-growth at $127.58. The picture is a business trading near a sensible recurring-cash-flow value, with the peer-multiple methods implying room above.
The reason the recurring frame is the right one is the deliberate shift in the business mix. Management states that more than 70% of earnings now come from resilient lines, engineering and project management, investment management, property management, and mortgage servicing, which insulate results from the transactional cycle. That matters because the historical knock on real estate services firms is that leasing and capital-markets brokerage swing violently with the property cycle. By building recurring revenue past 70% of earnings, Colliers has changed the quality of its cash flow, and a higher-quality, less cyclical earnings stream deserves a higher multiple than a pure brokerage.
The current results show the mix working. Q1 2026 consolidated revenue rose 15% to $1.31 billion, net revenue up 16%, with Commercial Real Estate revenue up 14% led by Capital Markets up 47% and Leasing up 11%, Engineering up 23%, and Investment Management up 7%. Adjusted EBITDA grew 8%. Management reaffirmed a full-year 2026 outlook for mid-teens revenue, EBITDA, and EPS growth. With net debt at about 1.0x operating income, the balance sheet is modest, and the company has a long record of compounding through acquisition. A buyer at $91.37 is paying roughly the recurring-cash-flow value for a diversifying services platform growing in the mid-teens.
Bear Case
The competitive set is the place to start, because Colliers is the smaller player in a field of giants. It competes against CBRE and JLL, each several times its size, plus Cushman and Wakefield and Newmark, all chasing the same brokerage mandates, investment-management capital, and outsourcing contracts. Scale matters in this business: the largest firms win the biggest corporate-outsourcing accounts, command the deepest capital-markets relationships, and can absorb technology and data investment that smaller rivals cannot. Colliers has grown impressively, but it is doing so against competitors with structural advantages in exactly the recurring lines, property management and investment management, that the bull case leans on. The disruption risk is not a new technology so much as larger incumbents and well-funded specialists steadily out-investing a mid-sized challenger.
Once that competitive framing is set, the valuation caution follows. The methods anchored to current earnings power are far below the price: earnings power value at $13.96, the zero-growth FCF-yield read at $15.15, and the SBC-adjusted FCF value at just $3.38, because reported free cash flow is thin relative to the market value and stock-based compensation is material. The trailing operating margin is only about 7.3%, and the share count has been growing about 4.4% a year, partly to fund acquisitions, so per-share progress depends on deals continuing to add more than they dilute. A services firm whose grounded-earnings methods sit in the teens while the price is in the low 90s is leaning heavily on the recurring-growth narrative continuing uninterrupted.
The cyclicality has not been eliminated, only diluted. Capital Markets revenue up 47% in Q1 is the transactional, cycle-sensitive part of the business firing on a recovering deal environment, and that line can reverse as fast as it rose if rates or credit conditions tighten. The remaining roughly 30% of earnings that are transactional are enough to swing results in a downturn, and the acquisition-led growth model adds integration and goodwill risk on top. The bear read is that Colliers is a well-run but sub-scale competitor in a consolidating industry, priced for steady mid-teens growth that depends on both a benign property cycle and continued accretive M&A, with the conservative methods offering little support if either falters.
Valuation
Colliers sits in an unusual spot on the valuation X-ray: the price is in the middle of the method spread rather than above or below all of it. The funds-from-operations multiple, the most appropriate frame for a real estate services firm with a large recurring base, lands at $93.86, essentially at the $91.37 price, built on a route-cohort median P/FFO near 13.4x. The peer earnings multiples reach well above, relative valuation at $203.40 and EV/EBITDA relative at $207.41, while the growth methods bracket the price, DCF perpetual-growth at $127.58 and DCF exit-multiple at $106.99. The conservative earnings frames sit far below: earnings power value at $13.96 and FCF yield at $15.15.
That spread reflects the dual nature of the business. The methods that treat Colliers as a recurring-cash-flow compounder, the FFO and growth frames, support the price; the methods that treat it as a thin-margin transactional services firm, the earnings-power and FCF frames, do not. The reverse-DCF reads the price as justified by relative-multiple and growth, within its normal range, with an implied operating-income growth requirement of only about 1%, a low bar given the mid-teens growth guidance.
The honest synthesis is that Colliers is priced roughly at its recurring-cash-flow value, which is fair if the 70%-plus recurring mix and mid-teens growth hold. The blended multiple of about 17.6x is reasonable for a diversified services firm growing in the mid-teens with a resilient earnings base. The bet a buyer makes at $91.37 is that the recurring lines keep growing and the transactional lines stay healthy enough not to drag, in a competitive field where larger rivals press on the same opportunities. If the recurring growth holds, the peer methods imply upside; if the cycle turns or M&A slows, the earnings-power methods are the floor the price would test.
Catalysts
The Q1 2026 report on May 5 was the most recent catalyst and a strong one: consolidated revenue up 15% to $1.31 billion, net revenue up 16%, and adjusted EBITDA up 8%, with Capital Markets revenue up 47% signaling a recovering transaction environment. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance for mid-teens revenue, EBITDA, and EPS growth. The next quarterly print tests whether the capital-markets recovery and recurring-line growth both hold.
The forward watch items are clear. First, the recurring-revenue mix, the core of the thesis, where management targets keeping more than 70% of earnings in resilient lines like engineering, investment management, property management, and mortgage servicing; growth there is what de-risks the multiple. Second, Capital Markets activity, the cyclical lever that drove the Q1 upside and is sensitive to interest rates and credit conditions. Third, acquisition cadence, since Colliers grows partly through M&A and the pace and accretion of deals drive per-share results against a share count that has been rising. Fourth, investment-management fundraising and performance fees, the highest-quality earnings stream and a swing factor in stronger quarters. As a competitor to much larger firms, market-share trends in outsourcing and capital-markets mandates are the longer-run signal to watch.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Core business (reported)
- FSV (FirstService Corporation)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CWK (CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD LTD.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CBRE (CBRE GROUP, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- JLL (Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NMRK (NEWMARK GROUP, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.