Chord Energy Corp (CHRD): what the price requires

At today's price, Chord Energy Corp (CHRD) is priced for +4.6% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CHRD

Headline

FieldValue
TickerCHRD
CompanyChord Energy Corp
Current price$122.47/sh

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin needed2.0%
Operating margin today8.2%
Margin compression implied-6.2pp
Implied growth4.6%
Multiple paid13x operating income

The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 7, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.3% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~5.8pp.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

ReferenceValue
vs own history+0.04σ
cohort percentile (of 45 peers)40
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple value, while growth-DCF lands below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset0.96x3justifies
Earnings0.73x2justifies
Relative1.09x3expensive
Growth1.63x4expensive

Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Relative Families that call it expensive: Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.9%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=12)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$266.220.46xyesFCF base $1.9B, growth 0% (input: historical growth), terminal g 0.5%, WACC 7.9%, 5yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$139.220.88xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 4.0x / 4.8x / 9.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr
Relative ValuationRelative$112.611.09xyesP/S fallback (negative EPS): Sector P/S 1.2x × TTM revenue — excluded from consensus
Simple DDMGrowth$51.422.38xyesDPS $5.23, g=-0.8% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3%
Two-Stage DDMGrowth$0.0112246.50xyesStage 1: -100% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual (excluded from median)
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$141.730.86xyesReference only (book value floor): BV/sh $141.73, ROE negative
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$127.550.96xyesReference only (book value with convergence): BV/sh $141.73, ROE converges to ke
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$49.582.47xyesRev $5.3B, growth 0% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.0x / 1.3x / 1.6x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 6x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$0.00—noNegative/zero EPS — earnings-based value floored at $0
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$111.111.10xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $1.14B × (1−21%) / WACC 7.9% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset——no—
Graham NumberAsset——no—
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$156.900.78xyesEBITDA $1.70B × sector EV/EBITDA 6.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$337.660.36xyesFCF $1891.2M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings——no—
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings——no—
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$50.952.40xyesBV $141.73 × (ROIC 2.8% / WACC 7.9%)
P/Sales SectorRelative$112.611.09xyesRevenue $5.33B × sector P/S 1.2x
PEG Fair ValueRelative——no—
Earnings YieldEarnings——no—
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$1.3b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)3.64x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)2.87x
Interest coverage5.5x
Share count CAGR (dilution)10.1%
Burning cashno

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

The single metric that decides Chord Energy is free cash flow, and it is large. The company guides to approximately $1.4 billion of adjusted free cash flow for 2026 at $80 WTI, and the zero-growth FCF-yield method capitalizes that stream at $337.66 per share against a $123.03 price. Even after discounting for the cyclicality of oil, that is the number that, if it holds, makes the current price look low. The reported GAAP loss is misleading: Q1 2026 net income of $108.6 million was cut by a $241.5 million derivative loss, while operating cash flow stayed strong at $507.5 million. The cash engine is running well below what the income statement suggests.

The business strategy is built around exactly this. The filing states the operational and financial strategy is focused on rigorous capital discipline and generating significant, sustainable free cash flow, with a priority on maximizing returns through efficient execution of the development program (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001486159-26-000005). The Q1 results bear that out: production averaged 275,615 Boepd at 57% oil, the company raised full-year oil guidance to 161,000 barrels per day while keeping capital flat, and it cited drilling-and-completion cost per foot down 37% over four years. Cheaper wells on flat capital mean more free cash per dollar invested, and the four-mile-lateral program is the mechanism scaling that efficiency.

The capital return is where shareholders see it. In Q1 alone the company paid a $1.30 per share base dividend and repurchased $70.7 million of stock under a $1.0 billion buyback authorization, funded entirely from operating cash flow after capital spending. The asset and earnings-power methods support the price from below, with two-stage excess return at $127.55, earnings power value at $112.16, and the DCF perpetual-growth read at $266.02. A buyer at $123.03 is paying roughly book value for a low-cost Williston operator throwing off enough cash to fund a growing return program, with upside if oil cooperates.

Bear Case

The disconnect a buyer has to sit with is qualitative first: this is a price-taker in a commodity it cannot control. Chord's own filing is explicit that it is exposed to commodity price risk, interest rate risk, counterparty risk, and inflation risk, and that it manages these through derivatives (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001486159-26-000005). The headline FCF that anchors the bull case is built on an $80 WTI assumption; at materially lower oil prices, the $1.4 billion of free cash flow compresses fast, and the same hedges that produced a $241.5 million derivative loss this quarter are a reminder that the protection cuts both ways. The whole thesis rests on a price the company does not set.

The balance sheet adds leverage to that cyclicality. Net debt is about $1.26 billion, roughly 6.5 times trailing operating income, and interest coverage sits near 2.1x, which is thin for a business whose revenue swings with the oil price. The trailing return on equity is slightly negative, residual income is skipped because the math implies capital destruction at the current return level, and the ROIC-justified book value lands at just $50.91, well below the price. In a down-cycle, a levered E&P with coverage near 2x has far less room than its FCF-at-$80 headline implies.

The numbers also show the share count has been growing, up about 10% on a trailing basis, reflecting the acquisitions that built the current Williston footprint, including the 2023 Williston Basin acquisition the filing records at $361.6 million of fair value (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001486159-26-000005). Growth by acquisition in oil and gas is a bet on entry timing as much as on execution. The methods most tied to current cyclical earnings, the discounted-future-market-cap read at $49.81 and the simple DDM at $51.42, sit far below the price, a reminder that if you value Chord on a normalized through-cycle basis rather than on peak-price free cash flow, the support thins considerably.

Valuation

Chord Energy's valuation X-ray is shaped by the commodity cycle, and the methods split on which part of the cycle you anchor to. The cash-based and asset frames support the price: the zero-growth FCF-yield method lands at $337.66, the DCF perpetual-growth read at $266.02, earnings power value at $112.16, and the two-stage excess-return book floor at $127.55, essentially at the $123.03 price. The peer multiples sit nearby, relative valuation and P/Sales-sector both at $112.61 and EV/EBITDA relative at $156.90. The reverse-DCF reads the price as asset-and-earnings supported, a value name rather than a growth bet, with an implied operating-income growth requirement of only about 4.8%.

The methods that look cheap and the ones that look expensive disagree because of the oil-price assumption embedded in each. The FCF-yield number is enormous because it capitalizes a free-cash-flow stream generated at favorable prices; the discounted-future-market-cap method at $49.81 and the simple DDM at $51.42 are far lower because they apply through-cycle multiples and a near-zero growth assumption. The truth is somewhere between, and it moves with WTI.

The honest synthesis is that Chord trades at roughly book value and a blended multiple around 13.5x, which is a reasonable price for a low-cost Williston operator if oil holds near the level its guidance assumes. The risk is not that the methods are wrong but that the oil price feeding them changes. At $123.03 a buyer is paying a modest multiple for cyclical cash flow plus a real capital-return program, with the downside governed by how far oil can fall and how the roughly 6.5x net-debt leverage behaves if it does.

Catalysts

The Q1 2026 report was the most recent catalyst and a constructive one despite a soft stock reaction: EPS of $4.56 beat the $3.30 estimate, operating cash flow was $507.5 million, and the company raised full-year oil guidance to 161,000 barrels per day while holding capital flat, adding more than $40 million of incremental free cash flow at $80 oil. The next quarterly print is the key data point on whether the cost and lateral-length efficiencies keep widening the free-cash margin.

The forward watch items are dominated by the oil price, since the entire $1.4 billion adjusted-FCF guide hinges on WTI near $80; a sustained move below that is the primary downside trigger, and a move above it is the upside. On execution, watch the four-mile-lateral program, which the company says will account for roughly 40% of wells turned in line and 60% of spuds this year, the scalable driver of lower drilling-and-completion costs. On capital return, the cadence of the base dividend and the $1.0 billion buyback signals how management balances shareholder returns against debt reduction; with net debt near $1.26 billion and coverage around 2.1x, the pace of deleveraging versus repurchase is the lever to watch through the rest of 2026.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Exploration & Production (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

View the full interactive CHRD report on boothcheck