CHURCH & DWIGHT CO., INC. (CHD): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $101.26, CHURCH & DWIGHT CO., INC. (CHD) is priced for +7.1% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-25.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CHD

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 7.3% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• Church and Dwight spent the last year rebuilding its portfolio rather than growing it: the vitamin business was divested in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the Flawless, Spinbrush and Waterpik showerhead lines were exited, which took 8.1% off consolidated net sales in the first quarter of 2026 while acquisitions added 2.2%.
• The domestic engine is running on mix rather than units, with the annual filing showing product volumes flat at 0.0% and pricing and mix at negative 0.5% for the Consumer Domestic segment in 2025, in a market where the 10-K reports an increase in consumers purchasing more "private label" or other lower price brands.
• Second-quarter results arrive on July 31, 2026, measured against full-year 2026 guidance of 3% to 4% organic sales growth and 5% to 8% earnings-per-share growth.

Bull Case

This is a mature business, and mature businesses should be read on a different axis than growing ones. Nobody buys a maker of baking soda, laundry detergent and pregnancy tests expecting a revenue surprise. What matters is whether the portfolio holds its shelf space, whether the margin structure survives contact with the retailer, and whether the cash that comes out gets deployed at a decent return. On the first two, the record is good. On the third, the last twelve months have been unusually interesting.

The brand architecture is deliberately two-tiered, and the 10-K is explicit about it: seven brands are designated "power brands" because they compete in large categories, and we believe they have the potential for significant global expansion, sitting alongside a long tail that includes FIRST RESPONSE pregnancy tests, NAIR, ORAJEL, XTRA laundry detergent and ZICAM. That mix matters commercially. A premium brand and a value brand in the same category means the company keeps the sale whether the shopper trades up or down, which in a period when the filing observes consumers moving toward lower-priced brands is the difference between losing a customer and losing a few points of mix.

The interesting move was subtraction. Over 2025 the company divested the vitamin business and exited the Flawless, Spinbrush and Waterpik showerhead lines, completing the exits by year end. That is roughly a tenth of the sales base voluntarily removed. In its place came acquisitions: Touchland from July 16, 2025, and then the Miss Mouth's Messy Eater brand, closed on May 29, 2026 for about $325 million. Management is swapping slower, lower-margin revenue for faster, higher-margin revenue, and taking a reported sales-growth hit while it does. The first quarter of 2026 shows the trade in one line: product volumes up 5.3% and acquisitions up 2.2%, offset by 8.1% of exited product lines, for consolidated net sales of $1,469.3 million and a 0.2% increase. Underneath a flat headline, the underlying business grew.

International is the quieter compounder. Consumer International net sales were $273.9 million in the first quarter of 2026, up 4.6%, with the filing attributing the segment's operating improvement to strong organic sales growth across the portfolio plus volume from Touchland. The segment is 18% of the revenue mix, so it does not move the whole company yet, and that is exactly why it is the option worth watching.

Financially, the company is built to keep doing this. Interest is covered close to 12 times, net debt sits at about 1.5 times operating profit, and the share count has come down roughly 0.9% a year over the four years to March 2026. Management has raised guidance on 20 separate occasions and reaffirmed it on 15 since 2007, against a single withdrawal. A track record of setting reachable targets is not a moat, but it tells you how the current 3% to 4% organic growth guide was probably constructed.

Bear Case

Today's price embeds operating profit growing about 5.8% a year for five years. That is the assumption to interrogate, because the Consumer Domestic segment, which supplies most of the profit, produced product volumes of 0.0% and pricing and mix of negative 0.5% in 2025. The segment's reported net sales rose 0.9%, and 2.2 points of that came from acquisitions. Strip the deals out and the core household and personal care business in the United States sold the same number of units at a slightly lower average price. Five years of mid-single-digit profit growth has to come from somewhere, and in 2025 it did not come from the core.

The candidate sources each carry their own problem. Price is under pressure from below: the 10-K states that an increase in consumers purchasing more "private label" or other lower price brands has increased competition in certain product categories, and separately that Significant price competition may require us to reduce the prices for some of our products to price levels that do not offset manufacturing cost increases. Category exposure compounds it, since the company derive[s] a substantial percentage of our revenues from sales of laundry detergent, which is the most heavily private-labelled aisle in the store and the one where a retailer's own brand sits at eye level next to yours.

That leaves acquisitions to carry the growth, and acquisitions are where this company has already been burned. The 2024 results included impairment charges of 357.1 million dollars against the vitamins business, none of it cash, of which 327.4 million landed in Consumer Domestic, and the vitamin business was subsequently divested in the fourth quarter of 2025. Buy a business, write down the intangibles, sell the business. The 10-K notes the carrying values rest on discounted cash flow methods whose key assumptions used in determining fair value are sales growth, profitability margins, tax rates, discount rates and royalty rates, all of which move when the categories move. Roughly $325 million went into a new brand in May 2026. The pattern is not that deals cannot work. It is that the growth in the price now depends on them working.

The retailer sits on the other side of every one of these decisions. The filing flags that consumer shifts toward online shopping could also impact our sales to our largest customers, and that retailers using evolving technology to develop more complex pricing models have driven pricing pressure in some categories. In plainer terms: the buyer on the other side of the table now has better data than the seller, and uses it. That is a slow, grinding form of margin risk that never announces itself in a single quarter.

None of this threatens the company's existence. Net debt is a little over 1.5 times operating profit and interest is covered nearly 12 times. The risk is entirely to the multiple. Every family of valuation method lands below today's price: the price sits roughly 40% above where peer multiples land, about 43% above the forward-growth approaches, and near three times the earnings-power methods, with the book-value approaches further under still. A stock priced for mid-single-digit profit growth that delivers two does not fall because the company failed. It falls because the assumption was retired.

Valuation

At $97.75 the enterprise carries about 23 times company-wide operating income. Invert that and it resolves into a plain demand: operating profit compounding at roughly 5.8% a year over a five-year stage. Measured against the company's own record, that pace is not a stretch, and it sits in the upper half of the peer multiple range rather than at the extreme of it. As priced-in assumptions go, this one is ordinary. The interesting question is not whether the number is achievable but where the growth would come from, given that Consumer Domestic sold flat volumes at slightly lower prices last year.

The demand is also more delicate than it looks, because it is computed against a cost of capital near 7.3%, a low figure that reflects how defensive the market considers this business. Add a single percentage point to that required return and the growth the price needs rises by roughly eight points. The valuation is therefore leveraged less to the company's execution than to the market's willingness to keep treating consumer staples as a low-risk asset.

The methods are unanimous in direction and spread out in degree. None of the four families reaches the price. The price sits about 40% above the peer-multiple family and about 43% above the forward-growth family, both of which get their numbers by holding today's multiples flat out to the exit year: one carries the current cash-earnings multiple forward unchanged, the other holds today's price-to-sales ratio constant. The earnings-power methods, which capitalize normalized profit with no growth at all, sit near a third of the price, and the book-value approaches land lower still. That is the ordinary shape for a branded consumer business, where the balance sheet holds almost none of the value and the brands hold nearly all of it. The pattern says the premium is being paid for durability, not for a growth inflection.

Peer context puts the margin structure in perspective. On trailing operating margin Church and Dwight earns 18.3%, which is comfortably ahead of CL at 15.4% and roughly in line with KVUE at 17.2%, and below PG at 23.2%. So the company is a good, not exceptional, margin performer in its cohort, and the price is in the upper half of the cohort's multiple range. The gap between those two rankings is the part a buyer is paying for.

The balance sheet supports the arrangement without much drama. Net debt runs about 1.5 times operating profit, trailing operating income of $1,102.6M covers interest close to 12 times, and the share count has fallen roughly 0.9% a year over the four years to March 2026. What that buys is optionality on the strategy currently in motion: the company can keep pruning slower lines and buying faster ones without the leverage becoming the story. The 2026 plan calls for 3% to 4% organic sales growth and 5% to 8% earnings-per-share growth, which is roughly the same order as the growth the price already assumes. Delivery keeps the multiple where it is. It does not expand it.

Catalysts

July 31, 2026 is the next real information event, when the company reports second-quarter results and hosts a webcast. The thing to look for is not the headline sales number, which the portfolio exits will continue to distort for another few quarters, but the split underneath it: organic volume against price and mix. In the first quarter of 2026 the consolidated line rose 0.2% while product volumes rose 5.3% and exited product lines subtracted 8.1%. Those two numbers are moving in opposite directions on purpose, and the moment they stop is when reported growth turns.

The reshaping continued in May. On May 29, 2026 the company closed its acquisition of the Miss Mouth's Messy Eater brand for approximately $325 million, the second bolt-on in under a year following Touchland in July 2025. Both are small relative to a $23.3B market value, which is the point: this is a programme of repeated small purchases funded from operating cash rather than a transformational deal. The relevant test is whether the acquired brands hold their growth after the first year inside a large distribution system, which is the exact thing that did not happen with the vitamins business the company wrote down and then sold.

Guidance sets the bar for the rest of the year. Management's 2026 outlook calls for organic sales growth of 3% to 4%, earnings-per-share growth of 5% to 8%, and roughly 100 basis points of margin improvement, and the first quarter came in ahead of the company's own expectations on sales, gross margin and earnings. This is a management team that has raised guidance on 20 separate occasions since 2007 against a single withdrawal, so a mid-year raise would be in character. The market has largely priced the delivery already.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Consumer Domestic (reported)

• CLX (CLOROX CO /DE/)
• FY2025 10-K: No other customers accounted for 10% or more of the Company's consolidated net sales in any of these fiscal years. The Company's five largest customers accounted for nearly half of the Company's consolidated net sales for each of the fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023. Competition The markets for consumer products are…
• FY2025 10-K: …and expenses. The charges defined in segment adjusted EBIT above are excluded from other segment items and Corporate and Other. (2) Represents a non-cash impairment charge related to the VMS business. See Note 7 for further discussion. (3) Represents restructuring and related implementation costs, net for the…
• CL (COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …omni-channel demand generation; leading in capabilities such as data, analytics and AI; and evolving our high-impact, inclusive culture are the keys to accelerating growth going forward. Our commitment to these priorities, the strength of our brands, our resilient global supply chain, the breadth of our global…
• FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:ProductConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000021665 cl:HomeCareMember us-gaap:ProductConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000021665 cl:HomeCareMember us-gaap:ProductConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember…
• KVUE (Kenvue Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …value realization. Self Care Segment Self Care Segment Net Sales The Self Care Segment Net sales were $6.4 billion and $6.5 billion for the fiscal twelve months ended December 28, 2025 and December 29, 2024, respectively, a decrease of $149 million, or 2.3%. Excluding the impact of favorable changes in foreign…
• FY2025 10-K: …laws. For example, in November 2025, we received a non-public Civil Investigative Demand ("CID") from the Attorney General of the State of Texas pursuant to the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices-Consumer Protection Act. The CID seeks documents related to certain Aveeno ® Baby products that are labelled as…
• PG (PROCTER & GAMBLE CO)
• FY2025 10-K: …increase, partially offset by unfavorable foreign exchange. The unit volume increase was due to increases in North America (due to share growth) and Latin America (due to market growth). Organic sales increased mid-single digits due to double-digit growth in Latin America, mid-single-digit growth in Europe and low…
• FY2025 10-K: …innovation) was offset by declines in Greater China and Asia Pacific (both due to market contraction). Organic sales increased low single digits driven by low single-digit increases in North America and Europe, partially offset by a high single-digit decline in IMEA. Global market share of the fabric care category…
• COTY (COTY INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …for the Consumer Beauty segment was due to positive performance in the color cosmetics category specifically from Rimmel Manhatta n and Risque , mass fragrance category specifically from David Beckham and Bruno Banani , and the skin and body care categories in Brazil, specifically from Monange, Paixao and Bozzano .…
• FY2025 10-K: …of $483.7 in fiscal 2023. Operating margin improved to 15.1% of net revenues in fiscal 2024 as compared to 14.1% in fiscal 2023, driven primarily by lower amortization expense as a percentage of net revenues (approximately 40 basis points), lower cost of sales as a percentage of net revenues (approximately 40 basis…
• EL (Estee Lauder Companies Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: …in the second half of fiscal 2025, which led to elevated inventory levels and destocking at certain retailers, as well as the timing of shipments, which further pressured net sales compared to the prior year. Partially offsetting the net sales decline for North America in fiscal 2025 was the impact from the launch of…
• FY2025 10-K: Company has made a policy election that permits the Company to account for shipping and handling activities that occur after the customer has obtained control of a good as a fulfillment cost rather than as an additional promised service. For these arrangements, the Company accrues all shipping and handling expenses…
• HLN (Haleon plc)
• FY2025 20-F: …are still influencing purchasing decisions1 . Demand is also increasing for holistic health solutions1 , digital tools, ingredient transparency, efficacy and credibility. Grocery, drug and traditional pharmacy channels are under significant pressure, with increasing input costs. Meanwhile, shifts to ecommerce and…
• FY2025 20-F: …programmes with major retailers focused on self-care. - Sector and customer collaboration supporting local communities. - Regular workshops to share best practices and exchange insights and strategies. - Interactive visits to our shopper research centres. - Activated UK retailer programmes for Voltarol and Centrum on…
• ELF (e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …year ended March 31, 2025. No other individual customer accounted for 10% or more of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025. We expect that Target, Walmart, Ulta Beauty and Amazon, along with a small number of other customers will, in the aggregate, continue to account for a large portion of our net…
• FY2025 10-K: …that will appeal to a broad consumer base, our ability to service demand, the ability of our major retail customers to drive traffic and keep products in stock, our ability to continue to grow our customer base and competitive threats from other beauty companies. Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Ulta Beauty…

Consumer International (reported)

• CL (COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …these conditions, such as our funding-the-growth and revenue growth management initiatives and the Strategic Growth and Productivity Program. 27 (Dollars in Millions Except Per Share Amounts) However, in the current environment it may become increasingly difficult to implement certain of these mitigation strategies.…
• FY2025 10-K: …of customers, including large-format retailers, discounters and eCommerce retailers, our growth is increasingly dependent on our ability to generate consumer demand across key touchpoints in the omni-channel ecosystem whether through traditional retail, eCommerce, social media or digital. We are also increasingly…
• UL (UNILEVER PLC)
• FY2025 20-F: …and reputation could be materially adversely affected. In addition, risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to vary from those described, which may include forward-looking statements, or could impact our ability to meet our targets or be detrimental to our profitability or reputation. Risk Risk description…
• FY2025 20-F: …to reach a global audience. As Official Sponsors of UEFA Women's EURO 2025™, we launched a multi-brand campaign with Dove, Rexona and Axe activating across Europe, featuring 360° touchpoints. We are also transforming how we create and deliver content to consumers. Rexona piloted ‘The Locker Room', a social hub using…
• PG (PROCTER & GAMBLE CO)
• FY2025 10-K: …in technology, process and data tools to enable the SBUs, the EMs and CF to better serve consumers and customers. The GBS organization is responsible for providing world-class services and solutions that drive value for P&G. Strategic Focus Procter & Gamble aspires to serve the world's consumers better than our best…
• FY2025 10-K: …customers from sufficiently staffing operations. Despite efforts to manage and remedy these impacts, their ultimate impact also depends on factors beyond our knowledge or control, including the duration and severity of any such outbreak as well as third-party actions taken to contain its spread and mitigate its…
• KVUE (Kenvue Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …2) global CPG companies that operate in similar or adjacent categories, 3) regional companies that operate in our categories within the markets in which we compete, 4) generic OTC manufacturers and retailers', including our customers', private-label brands in both traditional retail and online, and 5) emerging…
• FY2025 10-K: …laws. For example, in November 2025, we received a non-public Civil Investigative Demand ("CID") from the Attorney General of the State of Texas pursuant to the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices-Consumer Protection Act. The CID seeks documents related to certain Aveeno ® Baby products that are labelled as…
• COTY (COTY INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and behaviors, both on-line and in-store. We have introduced new ways to customize the consumer experience, including using AI-powered tools to provide personalized advice on selecting and using products, and augmented reality tools that invite customers to virtually try products with curated looks, tutorials and…
• FY2025 10-K: …risks related to the entry into a new distribution channel, the potential for channel conflict, risks of retaining customers and key employees, difficulties of integration (or the risks associated with limiting integration) and management of the partnerships, our relationships with our strategic partners, our ability…
• EL (Estee Lauder Companies Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: …demonstrations, and new product innovations also have an impact on consumers' purchasing decisions. We compete against a number of global and local companies. Some of our competitors are large, well-known, multinational manufacturers and marketers of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products, most of which…
• FY2025 10-K: …in the second half of fiscal 2025, which led to elevated inventory levels and destocking at certain retailers, as well as the timing of shipments, which further pressured net sales compared to the prior year. Partially offsetting the net sales decline for North America in fiscal 2025 was the impact from the launch of…
• IPAR (INTERPARFUMS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: Chief Customer, Marketing, and Digital Officer at Marks & Spencer PLC. There, he spearheaded the department store's digital transformation, positioning marksandspencer.com as one of the top three online destinations for clothing and footwear in the United Kingdom. He also led M&S's Beauty transformation initiative,…
• FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember ipar:CoachMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000822663 us-gaap:ProductConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember ipar:CoachMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0000822663 us-gaap:ProductConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember ipar:CoachMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000822663…

SPD (Specialty Products) (reported)

• ECL (ECOLAB INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …for our customers including water savings, energy savings and operating efficiency. In addition, Institutional markets a lease program comprised of energy-efficient dishwashing machines, detergents, rinse additives and sanitizers, including full machine maintenance. ​ Institutional sells its products and programs…
• FY2025 10-K: …methods and economic characteristics. Descriptions of the two operating segments which comprise our Global Institutional & Specialty reportable segment follow below. ​ Institutional ​ Institutional provides specialized cleaners and sanitizers, infection prevention solutions, food safety products and equipment, and a…
• IFF (INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …are ultimately used by IFF's customers in a diverse variety of products, including savory products (soups, sauces, meat, fish, poultry, snacks, etc.), beverages (juice drinks, carbonated or flavored beverages, spirits, etc.), sweets (bakery products, candy, cereal, chewing gum, etc.), and dairy products (yogurt, ice…
• FY2025 10-K: …for, and in the variety of, consumer products. The market for our products is highly competitive. Our main competitors consist of (1) other large global companies, such as Givaudan, Novonesis, DSM-Firmenich, Symrise, Kerry, and ADM, (2) mid-sized companies, (3) numerous regional and local manufacturers and (4)…
• BCPC (Balchem Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …products; proprietary technologies have been combined to create an organic molecule in a form the body can readily assimilate. Sales growth for human nutrition applications is reliant on differentiation from lower-cost competitive products through scientific data, intellectual property and customers' appreciation of…
• FY2025 10-K: …competitive positions of certain of our products. Formulae and know-how are of particular importance in the manufacture of a number of our proprietary products. We believe that our patents, in the aggregate, are advantageous to our business. However, we do not believe we are materially dependent on any particular…
• SXT (Sensient Technologies Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …for the Audit, Compensation and Development, Nominating and Corporate Governance, and Executive Committees of the Company's Board of Directors, as well as the Company's Code of Conduct, Corporate Governance Guidelines, Policy Relating to Recovery of Erroneously Awarded Compensation, and Non-Employee Directors and…
• FY2025 10-K: …The Company uses advanced technologies at facilities around the world to develop specialty food and beverage systems; personal care, essential oils, pharmaceutical, and nutraceutical systems; specialty colors; and other specialty and fine chemicals. The Company's three reportable segments are the Flavors & Extracts…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.