CROWN HOLDINGS, INC. (CCK): what the price assumes
boothcheck covers CROWN HOLDINGS, INC. (CCK) but does not put one priced-in number on it: here the defensible answer is the evidence rather than a point estimate. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating. Narrative composed 2026-07-25.
Generated: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CCK
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | CCK |
| Company | CROWN HOLDINGS, INC. |
| Sector / Industry | Industrials |
| Current price | $118.44/sh |
| Composition | Metal beverage cans and ends 69% / Transit packaging 16% / Metal food cans and ends 8% / Other products 3% / Other metal packaging 4% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 5.1% |
| Operating margin today | 12.3% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -7.2pp |
| Multiple paid | 11x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
The price sits below what even a 5%/yr operating-profit decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.2% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -1.39σ |
| cohort percentile (of 225 peers) | 11 |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.52x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.57x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.47x | 2 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.87x | 2 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=14)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $192.65 | 0.61x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 7.8x / 9.8x / 11.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | — | — | no | P/E 18x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 14.9x / 18.0x / 21.1x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 12x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $77.93 | 1.52x | yes | BV/sh $26.36, ROE (TTM) 27.3%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $136.21 | 0.87x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $104.95 | 1.13x | yes | Rev $13.3B, growth 10% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 0.8x / 1.0x / 1.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $243.60 | 0.49x | yes | EPS $6.96, growth 35% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.47 (Undervalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $105.22 | 1.13x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $1.44B × (1−21%) / WACC 6.5% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $117.06 | 1.01x | yes | BV $26.36 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 27.3% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $64.25 | 1.84x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $6.96 × BVPS $26.36) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | EBITDA $1.94B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $63.18 | 1.87x | yes | FCF $1199.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $58.70 | 2.02x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $1.15B (FCF $1.20B − SBC $0.04B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $224.58 | 0.53x | yes | EPS $6.96 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $16.61 | 7.13x | yes | BV $26.36 × (ROIC 4.1% / WACC 6.5%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | Revenue $13.26B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $261.00 | 0.45x | yes | EPS $6.96 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $75.24 | 1.57x | yes | EPS $6.96 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas Beverage | operating | enterprise | $5.6b | $1.0b operating-income | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| European Beverage | operating | enterprise | $2.3b | $334.0m operating-income | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| Transit Packaging | operating | enterprise | $2.0b | $258.0m operating-income | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $5.4b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 4.21x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 3.33x |
| Interest coverage | 4.1x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -2.5% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- Empty cans are expensive to move, so a can plant serves the breweries and bottlers near it and almost nobody else, which is why CCK runs "179 plants along with sales and service facilities throughout 39 countries" rather than a handful of giant ones.
- The balance sheet is the live risk: net debt sits at roughly 5.68 billion dollars, about 3.68 times operating profit, and operating profit covers the interest bill only about 3.9 times over.
- Watch the buyback against that debt, because the company repurchased $305 million of stock in the second quarter of 2026, with first-half buybacks running past half a billion dollars, while global beverage can volumes rose 5%.
Bull Case
Start with the objection, because it is the honest one. Crown carries roughly 5.68 billion dollars of net debt, equal to about 3.68 times operating profit, and the interest bill eats a real share of what the business earns. Coverage of about 3.9 times is adequate rather than comfortable. For a company selling a commodity container into consolidated customers, that is the number a cautious investor stops at.
Now test it. The debt sits on a business whose input cost is contractually somebody else's problem. The 10-K is explicit that the company "primarily manages its risk to adverse commodity price fluctuations and surcharges through contracts that pass through raw material costs to customers". Aluminum can double and the revenue line moves with it. In 2025 the filing attributes a large part of the sales increase to "the pass-through of higher aluminum costs", and reports that "Segment income increased primarily due to continued operational improvements and improved customer mix". The earnings came from running the plants better, not from the metal.
The physical economics are the reason that works. A can is mostly air, and air is uneconomic to ship, so plants are built next to filling lines and the relationship that follows is closer to infrastructure than to supply. SLGN describes the same constraint in its own filing, noting that its plant network is shaped "Because of the high cost of transporting empty containers". Crown's answer is 179 plants across 39 countries and roughly 23,000 employees, a footprint that a new entrant does not assemble by writing a cheque. Second-quarter volumes bear out the demand side: global beverage can shipments rose 5%, with double-digit growth in Asia, 7% in Europe and 5% in North America.
Cash conversion is where the leverage argument turns. Free cash flow ran at 995 million dollars, the company is not burning cash, and management has committed publicly to a target it repeats in the filing: "The Company's strategy is anchored by strong cash flow generation and a healthy balance sheet with a long-term net leverage target of 2.5x adjusted EBITDA". Meanwhile the share count has shrunk about 2.5% a year over the four years to March 2026, and $305 million came out in the second quarter alone. Debt paydown and buybacks compete for the same dollar, and the company is running both.
On profitability the comparison group is not close. Crown earns about 12.4% on a trailing basis at the operating line. PKG, the strongest of the paper converters here, reports an 11.7% operating margin; GPK reports 7.0%, SW 4.5%, and OI is close to breakeven at 0.2%. Packaging is a low-return business for most of the people in it. Crown is not one of them, and the debt is being serviced out of the best margin in the room.
Bear Case
The advantage under pressure is substitution, and the company names it first among its own risks. Its 10-K states that "The Company is subject to substantial competition from producers of alternative packaging made from glass, paper, flexible materials and plastic". The reason that matters more now than it used to is that the alternatives are being rebuilt to fight. OI, on the glass side, is running a programme whose stated aim is "cost position and driving profitable growth. The Fit to Win initiative will deliver immediate cost benefits, while the long-term strategy focuses on substantially improving the competitive position". A competitor cutting cost to win back share is not a neutral event for the incumbent's pricing.
Inside the can market itself the structure invites capacity indiscipline. BALL's filing describes containers "sold based on price, quality, service, innovation and sustainability in a highly competitive market, which is relatively capital intensive", and adds that these plants run continuously because that is the only way they operate profitably. Lines that must run cannot be idled gracefully when demand softens, so the adjustment shows up in price. That is the mechanism by which a local-monopoly story quietly becomes a commodity story.
The pass-through that protects the input cost also flatters the revenue line, and the protection has limits the company states plainly. Its risk disclosure warns of an inability "to increase its prices to offset increases in raw material costs without suffering reductions in unit volume, revenue and operating income", and notes that "The ability to mitigate inflationary risks through these measures varies by region". Read the 2025 sales increase in that light: a material portion of it came from aluminum moving through the contracts, which is revenue that carries no incremental profit and disappears when metal falls.
Which leaves the price and the debt in the same sentence. At about 12 times company-wide operating profit the quote does not embed a heroic assumption. It implies operating growth of about -4.4% a year over five years, which is to say the market has already agreed the business shrinks gently. The problem is what sits underneath. The methods that credit no growth whatsoever land below the price: the price carries roughly a 70% premium over the earnings-power family's central estimate, and capitalizing free cash flow with zero growth lands further below still. Against that, net debt of 3.68 times operating profit and coverage near 3.9 times means the equity absorbs the whole of any margin slip. GPK shows what the downside path looks like in packaging: its amended credit agreement "limits share repurchases to $65 million on an annual basis" once leverage crosses a defined threshold. Buybacks are the first thing a lender takes away.
Valuation
A price of $117.96 works out to about 12 times company-wide operating profit, which for a mature packaging business is not a demanding number. Run the price backwards and the assumption it embeds is mildly negative: operating growth of about -4.4% a year sustained across a five-year stage, discounted at a cost of capital of 8.2%, with the multiple sitting in the lower half of the range its comparison group trades at. The market is not paying for growth here. It is paying for continuation, and pricing a slow fade into the bargain.
The methods disagree about whether that is enough, and they split cleanly along one line: whether growth is credited at all. The peer-multiple methods land above the quote, and the forward cash-flow method lands essentially on it, so the price is defensible on both a comparison basis and a projection basis. The methods that value only what has been demonstrated do not get there. Against the earnings-power family the price sits about 1.7 times above the central estimate, and capitalizing the current free cash flow at the cost of equity with no growth at all lands well under half the quote. The gap between those two readings is the whole question: whether the plants keep converting cash at the recent rate, or whether the last few years were the good part of the cycle.
Segment mix is what makes the earnings-power lens harsh. Crown reports across metal beverage cans and ends, transit packaging, metal food cans and ends, and smaller lines, and the beverage business is the one carrying the growth. Second-quarter global beverage can volumes rose 5%, led by double-digit gains in Asia, while transit packaging serves industrial end markets with a different cycle entirely. A single company-wide operating multiple averages those together and tells you less than the parts would.
Among the packaging comparison group Crown's returns stand out. Its trailing operating margin runs about 12.4%. PKG reports 11.7% on revenue of 9.216 billion dollars, GPK 7.0% on 8.653 billion dollars with revenue flat on the year, SW 4.5% on a much larger base, and OI has compressed to roughly breakeven at the operating line on revenue down 1.6%. BALL, the closest direct competitor in beverage cans, grew revenue 13.7% to 13.667 billion dollars and converts 6.9% of it to net profit. Crown is priced at a multiple in the lower half of that group while earning the highest operating margin in it.
The balance sheet is where the discount lives. Net debt runs about 5.68 billion dollars against gross borrowings of roughly 6.26 billion dollars, which is 3.68 times operating profit, and interest is covered about 3.9 times. The company is not burning cash, free cash flow ran at 995 million dollars, and the filing commits to a "long-term net leverage target of 2.5x adjusted EBITDA". Until the reported ratio meets that target, a portion of every dollar of cash flow belongs to lenders rather than shareholders, and that is the most concrete reason a business earning the best margin in its cohort trades at one of its lower multiples.
Catalysts
Second-quarter results landed on July 20, 2026 and were strong on both lines. Net sales came in at $3,668 million against $3,149 million in the same quarter of 2025, segment income at $501 million against $476 million, and diluted earnings per share at $2.23 against $1.56. Global beverage can volumes rose 5%, with double-digit growth in Asia, 7% in Europe and 5% in North America. Volume growth of that shape, spread across three regions rather than concentrated in one, is the version that tends to persist.
Capital return accelerated alongside it. The company repurchased $305 million of stock during the quarter, taking repurchases across the first six months of 2026 past half a billion dollars. A quarterly dividend was declared on July 23, 2026. Management also set full-year capital expenditure at approximately $550 million. Spending at that level against the cash the business generates leaves room for both debt reduction and repurchases, which is the balancing act the leverage target implies.
The variable worth tracking from here is aluminum. Because the contracts pass metal costs through, a falling aluminum price pulls reported revenue down without touching profit, and a rising one does the reverse. Reported sales growth in this business therefore carries a metal component that has nothing to do with how many cans were sold, and the volume figure is the cleaner read on demand.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Americas Beverage (reported)
- BALL (BALL CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …in 2025. Four companies currently manufacture substantially all of the aluminum beverage containers in the regions served by our beverage packaging, South America, segment. The company's South American beverage facilities shipped approximately 20 billion aluminum beverage containers in 2025. Historically, sales…
- FY2025 10-K: December 31, 2024 3,215 1,113 3,207 7,535 (a) Long-lived assets exclude goodwill and intangible assets. Summary of Business by Segment Years Ended December 31, ($ in millions) 2025 2024 2023 Net sales Beverage packaging,…
- OI (O-I GLASS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …cost position and driving profitable growth. The Fit to Win initiative will deliver immediate cost benefits, while the long-term strategy focuses on substantially improving the competitive position. By deepening penetration in core markets and expanding into development and seedling markets, the Company aims to…
- FY2025 10-K: $ 6,404 Other 127 Net sales $ 6,531 The following table for the year ended December 31, 2023 disaggregates the Company's revenue by customer end use: Americas Europe Total Alcoholic beverages (beer,…
- SLGN (SILGAN HOLDINGS INC)
- FY2025 10-K: …our products primarily by a direct sales force, including manufacturer's representatives, and for our custom containers business, in part, through a network of distributors. Because of the high cost of transporting empty containers, our metal containers business generally sells to customers within a 300 mile radius…
- FY2025 10-K: …Coors Brewing Company, Natura & Co., Nestlé, O Boticário, PepsiCo Inc., The Procter & Gamble Company, Puig, S. C. Johnson & Son, Inc., The Scotts Company LLC, Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc., STADA Arzneimittel AG, Treehouse Foods, Inc. and Unilever, plc. We have multi-year supply arrangements with many of our…
- AMCR (AMCOR PLC)
- FY2025 10-K: Ltd and Amcor Flexibles North America, Inc. and Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, as trustee (including the guarantees) (incorporated by reference to Exhibit 4.1 on Amcor plc's Current Report on Form 8-K filed on May 29, 2024). Incorporated by Reference 4 .20 Indenture, dated as of June 13, 2019, by and among…
- FY2025 10-K: …April 30, 2025, among Amcor Finance (USA), Inc., Berry Global Group, Inc., Berry Global, Inc., and Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, relating to the 5.625% Guaranteed Senior Notes due 2033. Filed Herewith 4 .51 Third Supplemental Indenture, dated April 30, 2025, among Amcor Flexibles North America, Inc., as…
- GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Co)
- FY2025 10-K: …liquidity considerations. Products During the first quarter of 2025, the Company realigned its financial reporting structure under two reportable segments, Americas Paperboard Packaging and International Paperboard Packaging. The Company's reportable segments are described as follows: Americas Paperboard Packaging…
- FY2025 10-K: …from external sources. The various bleached, unbleached and recycled grades of paperboard that the Company produces internally and buys externally offer distinctly different combinations of strength, printability, appearance and recycled content, as well as other functional and non-functional characteristics of…
European Beverage (reported)
- BALL (BALL CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: . Beverage Packaging, EMEA Years Ended December 31, ($ in millions) 2025 2024 2023 Net sales $ 3,983 $ 3,466 $ 3,395 Comparable operating earnings 495 416 354 Comparable operating earnings as a % of segment net sales 12 % …
- FY2025 10-K: …are sold based on price, quality, service, innovation and sustainability in a highly competitive market, which is relatively capital intensive and characterized by facilities that run more or less continuously in order to operate profitably. In addition, the aluminum beverage container competes with other packaging…
- OI (O-I GLASS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …cost position and driving profitable growth. The Fit to Win initiative will deliver immediate cost benefits, while the long-term strategy focuses on substantially improving the competitive position. By deepening penetration in core markets and expanding into development and seedling markets, the Company aims to…
- FY2025 10-K: $ 6,404 Other 127 Net sales $ 6,531 The following table for the year ended December 31, 2023 disaggregates the Company's revenue by customer end use: Americas Europe Total Alcoholic beverages (beer,…
- AMCR (AMCOR PLC)
- FY2025 10-K: …industry experience, and strong capabilities, we believe we are uniquely positioned to lead the way in meeting our customers' growing sustainability expectations and we aspire to improve the quality of lives, protect ecosystems, and preserve natural resources for future generations. Marketing, Distribution, and…
- FY2025 10-K: …more than 40 countries. Se e Note 4 , " Acquisitions and Divestitures " f or more information on the Berry acquisition. Today, we are the global leader in developing and producing responsible consumer packaging and dispensing solutions across a variety of materials for nutrition, health, beauty and wellness…
- SLGN (SILGAN HOLDINGS INC)
- FY2025 10-K: …our products primarily by a direct sales force, including manufacturer's representatives, and for our custom containers business, in part, through a network of distributors. Because of the high cost of transporting empty containers, our metal containers business generally sells to customers within a 300 mile radius…
- FY2025 10-K: EBIT excluding corporate expense). Since 1987, we have improved our market position for our custom containers business, with net sales increasing at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.3 percent. We manufacture custom designed and stock plastic containers for food and beverage products, including peanut…
- GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Co)
- FY2025 10-K: …and demand for the Company's products, raw material and energy costs, and the Company's ability to successfully implement its overall business and profitability strategies. Accounts receivable are stated at the amount owed by the customer, net of an allowance for estimated uncollectible accounts, returns and…
- FY2025 10-K: …Amendment also incorporates an additional pricing tier when the Consolidated Total Leverage Ratio is greater than or equal to 4.75 to 1.00; limits share repurchases to $65 million on an annual basis; and places additional restrictions on acquisitions and investments in non-guarantor subsidiaries during the period…
Transit Packaging (reported)
- AMCR (AMCOR PLC)
- FY2025 10-K: 00 employees at 210 manufacturing and support facilities in 36 countries as of June 30, 2025, the Global Flexible Packaging Solutions Segment is one of the world's largest suppliers of polymer resin, aluminum, and fiber based flexible packaging. In fiscal year 2025, the Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment…
- FY2025 10-K: …The Company has identified potential performance obligations in its customer master supply agreements and determined that none of them are capable of being distinct as the customer can only benefit from the supplied packaging. Therefore, the Company has concluded that it has one performance obligation, which is to…
- GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Co)
- FY2025 10-K: Overview Graphic Packaging Holding Company ("GPHC" and, together with its subsidiaries, the "Company") is committed to creating consumer packaging that makes a world of difference. The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and…
- FY2025 10-K: …recycled, and the Company works across the value chain to make it easier for people to recycle. With this focus, the Company plays an active role in support of the move to a more circular economy and a sustainable future for generations to come. Graphic Packaging's commitment to reducing the environmental impact of…
- PKG (PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA)
- FY2025 10-K: …under its revolving credit facility, $1,241 million in liquidity. 1 Net income excluding special items, earnings per diluted share excluding special items, and segment EBITDA excluding special items are non-GAAP financial measures. See "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" later in this item 7. 20 Packaging segment operating…
- FY2025 10-K: …Paper segment. Effective March 1, 2025, we have amended the agreement with ODP in which we will continue to supply commodity and non-commodity office papers through December 31, 2026. If the agreement is not renewed by the parties, ODP's obligation to purchase paper would phase down over a two-year period beginning…
- BALL (BALL CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …North and Central America; (2) beverage packaging, EMEA; and (3) beverage packaging, South America. Revenue Contract Balances The company enters into contracts to sell packaging products. The payment terms and conditions in customer contracts vary. Those customers that prepay are represented by the contract…
- FY2025 10-K: …are sold based on price, quality, service, innovation and sustainability in a highly competitive market, which is relatively capital intensive and characterized by facilities that run more or less continuously in order to operate profitably. In addition, the aluminum beverage container competes with other packaging…
- IP (INTERNATIONAL PAPER COMPANY)
- FY2025 10-K: …combination. In North America, we continued to leverage 80/20 to simplify our business operations and focus our resources to accelerate growth. In our packaging business, we exited non-strategic export and specialty markets and rationalized higher cost capacity to better align with profitable customer demand. We…
- FY2025 10-K: …Oregon, leased Grenaa, Denmark Lexington, South Carolina Reading, Pennsylvania Taulov, Denmark Ashland City, Tennessee, leased Carrollton, Texas Vejle, Denmark Elizabethton, Tennessee, leased Salt Lake City, Utah Tallinn, Estonia Greeneville, Tennessee Richmond, Virginia Tampere, Finland, leased Morristown, Tennessee…
- SLGN (SILGAN HOLDINGS INC)
- FY2025 10-K: …In addition, at December 31, 2025, we had outstanding letters of credit of $21.7 million and no outstanding revolving loan borrowings under our Credit Agreement. Under our Credit Agreement, we have available to us $1.5 billion of revolving loans under a multi-currency revolving loan facility. Revolving loans under…
- FY2025 10-K: …stock or increase dividends to our stockholders or for other permitted purposes. In October 2024, we funded the purchase price for Weener Packaging with €868.0 million of term and revolving loan borrowings under our senior secured credit facility, or as amended our Credit Agreement, including a €700.0 million…
- OI (O-I GLASS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: Europe are typically greater in the second and third quarters of the year, while shipments in South America are typically greater in the third and fourth quarters of the year. Unseasonably 13 Table of Contents cool weather during peak demand periods can reduce demand for certain beverages packaged in the Company's…
- FY2025 10-K: …the customer to consider changing suppliers and/or using an alternative form of packaging. The adverse effects of consumer purchasing decisions may be more significant in periods of economic downturn and may lead to longer-term reductions in consumer spending on glass packaged products. In addition, the glass…
Core business (reported)
- SLGN (SILGAN HOLDINGS INC)
- FY2025 10-K: ED TO BUSINESS, OPERATIONS AND CERTAIN FINANCIAL MATTERS W E FACE COMPETITION FROM MANY COMPANIES AND WE MAY LOSE SALES OR EXPERIENCE LOWER MARGINS ON SALES AS A RESULT OF SUCH COMPETITION . The manufacture and sale of dispensing and specialty closures, metal containers and custom containers is highly competitive. We…
- FY2025 10-K: …8.2 percent as compared to 2024 primarily as a result of the contractual pass through of higher raw material and other manufacturing costs and higher unit volumes. For 2026, we expect that volumes for our metal containers business will improve over 2025, primarily driven by growth in pet food products. We have…
- BALL (BALL CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …and placing us at a competitive disadvantage compared to our competitors who may be less leveraged and who, therefore, may be able to take advantage of opportunities that our leverage prevents us from exploiting. We face competitive risks from many sources that may negatively impact our profitability. Competition…
- FY2025 10-K: …4 percent and 5 percent of consolidated net sales for the years ended 2025 and 2024, respectively. The decrease was primarily due to 2024 including $82 million of incremental cash bonuses and stock-based compensation cost from the successful sale of the aerospace business. Business Consolidation and Other…
- AMCR (AMCOR PLC)
- FY2025 10-K: …customers could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations or cash flows. 15 Competition - We face significant competition in the industries and regions in which we operate, which could adversely affect our business. We operate in highly competitive geographies and end use areas, each with varying…
- FY2025 10-K: …key customers; • significant competition in the industries and regions in which we operate; • an inability to expand our current business effectively through either organic growth, including product innovation, investments, or acquisitions; • challenging global economic conditions; • impacts of operating…
- GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Co)
- FY2025 10-K: …Amendment also incorporates an additional pricing tier when the Consolidated Total Leverage Ratio is greater than or equal to 4.75 to 1.00; limits share repurchases to $65 million on an annual basis; and places additional restrictions on acquisitions and investments in non-guarantor subsidiaries during the period…
- FY2025 10-K: The Company may not be able to develop and introduce new products and adequately protect its intellectual property and proprietary rights, which could harm its future success and competitive position. The Company works to increase market share and profitability through product innovation and the introduction of new…
- PKG (PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA)
- FY2025 10-K: …manufacturing operations to customers and load size. Our corrugated manufacturing operations typically serve customers within a 150-mile radius. Customers We sell containerboard and corrugated products to approximately 12,000 customers in approximately 27,000 locations. About 70% of our corrugated products sales are…
- FY2025 10-K: …decisions made by other producers with respect to capacity and production, inflation and other general cost increases, and other competitive conditions in our industry. These factors are affected by general global and domestic economic conditions, customer purchasing decisions, and operating conditions involving our…
- SW (Smurfit Westrock plc)
- FY2025 10-K: …to the demand requirements of both internal and external converters located within an economically reasonable shipping distance from each mill, thereby minimizing logistics costs. Our strategy for the corrugated container and other converting plants focuses on both customized products tailored to fit customers' needs…
- FY2025 10-K: …capitalize on their economies of scale and create excess product supply, the ability of competitors to operate or successfully relocate or open production facilities in countries where production costs are lower than those in which we operate and the introduction by our competitors of new products, technologies and…
- OI (O-I GLASS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …in the Americas in connection with its Fit to Win initiative . The Company will continue to monitor business trends and consider whether any additional temporary downtime or permanent capacity closures in the Americas will be necessary in future periods to align its business with demand trends. Any permanent capacity…
- FY2025 10-K: …cost position and driving profitable growth. The Fit to Win initiative will deliver immediate cost benefits, while the long-term strategy focuses on substantially improving the competitive position. By deepening penetration in core markets and expanding into development and seedling markets, the Company aims to…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
Q2 2026 earnings release, July 20, 2026 · Crown Holdings dividend announcement, July 23, 2026