CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc. (CCC): what the price requires

At today's price, CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc. (CCC) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~8.7 years. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CCC

Headline

FieldValue
TickerCCC
CompanyCCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.
Current price$6.15/sh

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin needed5.2%
Operating margin today7.1%
Margin compression implied-1.9pp
Must persist for8.7y
Multiple paid69x operating income

The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 7.7% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.4 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~12.2 years; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: high

ReferenceValue
cohort percentile (of 178 peers)92
sustained it ~8.7 years at this level18%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore requires assumptions beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset11.83x1expensive
Earnings2.59x1expensive
Relative1.58x2expensive
Growth—0—

Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=4)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$15.680.39xnoFCF base $0.3B, growth 12% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 7.1%, 6yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$9.090.68xnoExit EV/EBITDA: 45.8x / 47.8x / 49.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr
Relative ValuationRelative$13.390.46xyesP/S fallback (negative EPS): Sector P/S 8.0x × TTM revenue — excluded from consensus
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$0.03205.00xyesBV/sh $2.83, ROE (TTM) 0.1%, ke 9.3% (excluded from median)
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$0.01615.00xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% (excluded from median)
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$5.661.09xnoRev $1.1B, growth 12% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 3.0x / 3.7x / 4.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$0.00—noNegative/zero EPS — earnings-based value floored at $0
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$0.01615.00xnoNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.02B × (1−21%) / WACC 7.1% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset$0.01615.00xyesBV $2.83 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 0.1% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 0.1%/yr (excluded from median)
Graham NumberAsset——no—
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$2.272.71xyesEBITDA $0.11B × sector EV/EBITDA 25.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$2.372.59xyesFCF $254.5M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings$0.01615.00xyesSBC-adj FCF $0.08B (FCF $0.25B − SBC $0.18B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median)
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings——no—
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$0.5211.83xyesBV $2.83 × (ROIC 1.3% / WACC 7.1%)
P/Sales SectorRelative$13.390.46xnoRevenue $1.06B × sector P/S 8.0x
PEG Fair ValueRelative——no—
Earnings YieldEarnings——no—
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$1.2b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)20.62x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)16.29x
Interest coverage1.0x
Share count CAGR (dilution)2.8%
Burning cashno

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

Valuing CCC on its GAAP earnings would mislead you, and understanding why is the key to the bull case. This is a software business whose accounting profit sits near zero, but the cash economics underneath are strong: an adjusted EBITDA margin around 43% on highly recurring subscription revenue. The gap between near-zero net income and a 43% cash-flow margin is mostly stock-based compensation and the depreciation of acquired intangibles, neither of which is a cash drain on the operating business. A SaaS company at this scale and margin is valued on its recurring revenue and retention, not its bottom-line EPS, which is why the relative-multiple lens supports the price while the earnings-based methods do not.

The moat is a two-sided network that is genuinely hard to dislodge. CCC sits in the middle of the auto-claims workflow, and the 10-K describes a customer base that includes "26 of the top 30 automotive insurers based on DWP, with average customer relationships spanning more than 10 years, and numerous exclusive arrangements." On the other side of the network are the repair shops and parts suppliers who use the same platform to estimate, collaborate, and transact. Each insurer that joins makes the network more valuable to repairers, and vice versa, and a decade-long relationship embedded in a carrier's claims process is not something a competitor wins with a lower price. That is the structural advantage the recurring revenue rests on.

The growth engine is shifting toward higher-value AI products, which extends the runway. The Emerging Solutions business, led by EvolutionIQ in casualty and AI-based diagnostics, was about 11% of revenue and grew roughly 50% year over year, contributing four points to total growth. EvolutionIQ now serves nine of the top-15 disability insurers and has expanded into workers' compensation, pushing CCC beyond auto physical damage into the broader insurance-claims market. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $1.155 billion to $1.163 billion with a 42% adjusted EBITDA margin. The bull case is a sticky network compounding while a new AI layer widens the addressable market.

Bear Case

The moat is real, but the data shows the edges fraying, and that is where the bear case lives. The single cleanest measure of a subscription network's durability is retention, and CCC's gross dollar retention dipped to 98% from 99% the prior quarter. One point sounds trivial, but in a SaaS business the difference between 99% and 98% retention compounds meaningfully over time, and the direction is the concern. The stickiness is not absolute either: the 10-K concedes that contracts "can be canceled or not renewed by the customer after the expiration of the SaaS term, as applicable, on relatively short notice." A network anchored by a handful of giant insurers is exposed if even one large carrier rethinks its commitment.

The dilution is the slower erosion of shareholder value. CCC's reported free cash flow is heavily reduced by stock-based compensation, which consumes the large majority of it, and the share count has been climbing roughly 3% a year. There is also a structural overhang from the company's go-public structure: the 10-K discloses that former holders "have the right to receive up to an additional 13.5 million shares" of common stock under earnout provisions tied to the share price. When a SaaS company's cash margin looks excellent but the per-share value leaks out through compensation and earnout shares, the headline economics overstate what reaches the equity holder.

The valuation does not leave room for the erosion to continue. At today's price the market pays roughly 54 times company-wide operating income, embedding growth held near the self-funding ceiling for about six years, a pace only a minority of fast-growers sustain. Layer leverage on top: net debt of about $1.2 billion runs more than 12 times operating income, with interest covered only about 1.3 times on trailing earnings. That is real debt for a company whose GAAP profit is thin, and it means the cash flow that services the debt is the same cash flow under pressure if retention keeps slipping or the AI growth decelerates. The bear case is that a slowly eroding moat, persistent dilution, and meaningful leverage are a poor combination at a multiple priced for the moat to hold.

Valuation

The right lens on CCC is a SaaS one, because the GAAP numbers actively mislead. Net income is near breakeven, which makes earnings-based methods read the stock as wildly expensive, but the business throws off a 43% adjusted EBITDA margin on recurring revenue. The bet embedded in the price is for operating profit to grow near its self-funding ceiling for about six years, which the inversion flags as elevated relative to what comparable fast-growers have sustained. The price is paying for durable, high-margin subscription growth to continue, not for the current accounting profit.

The methods are sparse and divided, which the distressed GAAP profile causes. The growth and projection methods are gated off because the company carries distress signals on a GAAP basis, sustained net losses and negative retained earnings, even though the cash economics are healthy. The asset and earnings-power lenses read the stock as expensive, anchored to a thin book value and a near-zero bottom line. Only the relative-multiple lens, valuing the recurring revenue at a software multiple, supports the price. That is a low-confidence X-ray: the methods that work for a normal company do not fit a SaaS business whose value is its retention and growth, so the relative lens carries most of the weight, and it says the revenue base supports the price while everything tied to GAAP earnings says otherwise.

Solvency is where the SaaS-versus-GAAP tension becomes a real risk rather than an accounting curiosity. Net debt of about $1.2 billion sits at more than 12 times trailing operating income, with interest coverage near 1.3 times and modest liquid assets of about $111 million. The cash flow comfortably services that debt today, but the reported free cash flow is heavily flattered relative to its stock-based-compensation-adjusted level, and the share count is rising. So the buyer is underwriting a high-margin, sticky network, on a balance sheet that is more levered than a software company's reputation suggests, at a multiple that needs the growth and retention to hold. The cohort comparison is imperfect because CCC is a vertical insurance-claims platform rather than a horizontal software vendor, but against software peers its growth is solid and its leverage is high, which is the combination that defines both the opportunity and the risk.

Catalysts

The first quarter beat and the company raised its outlook. Revenue rose 12% to $281.3 million, adjusted EBITDA margin came in around 43%, and earnings per share of $0.11 topped consensus. The growth standout was Emerging Solutions, led by EvolutionIQ, which reached about 11% of revenue and grew roughly 50% year over year, contributing four points to total growth. EvolutionIQ added disability insurers and workers' compensation customers during the period, broadening CCC's reach beyond its auto-claims core.

Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $1.155 billion to $1.163 billion, about 10% growth at the midpoint, with adjusted EBITDA of $484 million to $490 million. The forward watch items are clear. Gross dollar retention, which slipped to 98% from 99%, is the leading indicator of whether the network is holding; the pace of EvolutionIQ and the broader AI portfolio determines whether the addressable market keeps expanding; and the trajectory of stock-based compensation and debt reduction decides how much of the cash economics actually reaches shareholders.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Core business (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

Q1 2026 earnings release · Q1 2026 earnings call

View the full interactive CCC report on boothcheck