BXP, INC. (BXP): what the price requires
At today's price, BXP, INC. (BXP) is priced for -4.3% FFO growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/BXP
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | BXP |
| Company | BXP, INC. |
| Current price | $67.02/sh |
| Composition | Boston 37% / Los Angeles 2% / New York 31% / San Francisco 15% / Seattle 1% / Washington, DC 13% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | reit |
| Implied FFO growth | -4.3% |
| Price-to-FFO | 8.4x |
| FFO yield | 11.9% |
Solve inputs: computed at a 11.2% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.33σ |
| cohort percentile (of 88 peers) | 14 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 3.97x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.32x | 4 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.55x | 4 | justifies |
| Growth | 1.06x | 5 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=17)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $107.62 | 0.62x | yes | FCF base $1.2B, growth 2% (input: historical growth), terminal g 1.6%, WACC 7.0%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $75.47 | 0.89x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 14.5x / 16.5x / 18.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $139.94 | 0.48x | yes | P/E 24.35x (blended: static sector reference 35x + trailing (TTM) 8x), scenarios: 20.6x / 24.4x / 28.1x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 20x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | $63.20 | 1.06x | yes | DPS $3.12, g=4.1% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3% |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $45.31 | 1.48x | yes | Stage 1: -1% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $21.56 | 3.11x | yes | BV/sh $48.53, ROE (TTM) 4.1%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $13.86 | 4.84x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $44.94 | 1.49x | yes | Rev $3.5B, growth 2% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.6x / 3.1x / 3.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | $11.32 | 5.92x | yes | BV $48.53 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 4.1% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 2.7%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $93.52 | 0.72x | yes | √(22.5 × FFO/share $8.01 × BVPS $48.53) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $87.27 | 0.77x | yes | EBITDA $0.92B × sector EV/EBITDA 20.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $52.59 | 1.27x | yes | FCF $1191.6M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $49.37 | 1.36x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $1.14B (FCF $1.19B − SBC $0.05B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $38.79 | 1.73x | yes | FFO/share $8.01 × (8.5 + 2×-1.4%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $131.62 | 0.51x | yes | Revenue $3.49B × sector P/S 6.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $86.59 | 0.77x | yes | FFO/share $8.01 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | $113.63 | 0.59x | yes | FFO/share $8.01 × 14.2x P/FFO (route cohort median, n=85); FFO $1.27B (FFO incl. D&A + impairments, FY2025, companyfacts), shares 159M |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Funds from operations (trailing) | $1.3b |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 0.3% |
| Burning cash | no |
REIT basis: leverage is read against funds from operations (FFO), not depreciation-gutted operating income. The header's implied growth runs on ADJUSTED FFO — FFO minus recurring maintenance capex — so the header's multiple and this leverage ratio use bases that differ by that capex; neither substitutes for the other. Net debt could not be resolved from the corporate debt tags in the filings (REIT notes and mortgage debt are often tagged outside the corporate ladder), so the leverage ratio is withheld rather than rendered from incomplete tags. Interest expense is not separately reported in the cached statements, so fixed-charge coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
At about $65, BXP trades near 10 times adjusted funds from operations, in the lower half of the REIT peer group. Inverted, the price implies the trust lets its cash earnings decline about 4.9% a year, a pessimistic assumption for a portfolio whose occupancy and leasing are improving.
The first quarter of 2026 ran counter to that gloom. FFO of $1.59 per share beat guidance, the company leased over 1.1 million square feet with strength in New York and San Francisco, and management raised both its full-year FFO guidance and its occupancy assumptions, targeting roughly 89% by year-end and 91% by 2027.
The dividend yields close to 5%, paid at $0.70 a quarter. The structural caution is the office sector itself and the leverage that comes with any REIT: a still-uncertain return-to-office trend, the threat of AI-driven workforce reduction, and the cost of refinancing debt in a higher-rate world.
Bull Case
Start with the moat, because BXP's competitive advantage is the specific kind of office it owns. This is not a generic-office REIT exposed to the commodity space that the work-from-home era hollowed out. BXP owns premier workplaces, the highest-quality buildings in six gateway markets, and the 10-K is explicit that these are the assets "in high demand by clients that are focused on the importance of the physical work environment in recruiting and retaining the best and brightest employees" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001037540-26-000006). The defining trend in office right now is flight to quality: as companies bring people back, they concentrate in the best buildings and abandon the older, cheaper stock. BXP sits on the winning side of that bifurcation, and its core strategy "has always been to develop, acquire" and own that top-tier portfolio. The structural advantage shows up as occupancy and leasing strength even while the broader office market struggles.
The operating results confirm the moat is working. First-quarter 2026 FFO of $1.59 per share beat guidance, revenue exceeded forecasts, and the company leased over 1.1 million square feet with particular strength in New York and San Francisco, two markets where the recovery has been most contested. Management raised its full-year 2026 FFO guidance to $6.90 to $7.04 per share and lifted its average occupancy assumption, targeting roughly 89% by year-end and 91% by 2027, a four-point improvement over two years. Recent marquee leases with names like Boston Dynamics and a major law firm show the demand for trophy space is real, and a leasing pipeline around 3 million square feet supports the occupancy ramp.
The valuation and income round out the case. At about 10 times adjusted FFO, BXP sits in the lower half of the REIT group, and the price implies a roughly 5% annual decline in cash earnings, the opposite of the occupancy trajectory. The FFO-multiple read on FFO per share of $8.01 lands well above the price, as do the earnings-power, dividend-discount, and relative methods. The dividend yields close to 5% at $0.70 a quarter. For an investor who believes the best office buildings keep filling up as hybrid work settles into a return-to-office equilibrium, BXP offers a quality portfolio, improving occupancy, a covered high-single-digit yield, and a price that assumes decline rather than the recovery the company is actually posting.
Bear Case
The structural fragility starts with the balance sheet, because office REITs are leveraged owners of long-lived, hard-to-sell assets, and BXP is no exception. The trust funds its portfolio with substantial debt, and the value of that equity is the thin slice between the buildings' worth and the debt against them. When interest rates rise, two things happen at once: the cap rate used to value office buildings rises, cutting their market value, and the cost of refinancing maturing debt climbs, eating into the FFO that covers the dividend. The asset-based valuation methods already flag this, landing far below the current price because the return on equity is depressed near 4%, below the cost of equity. A REIT earning less on its equity than that equity costs is, by that measure, not creating value, and the leverage magnifies any decline in property values into a larger decline in the equity.
The demand picture for office is the structural overhang that no amount of building quality fully escapes. The 10-K names the risk directly: "job losses and/or a sustained shift away from collective in-person work environments or relocations away from the markets in which we operate" could decrease demand, and it flags "changes from workforce reduction due to artificial intelligence" as a new threat to overall office need (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001037540-26-000006). That last point is the wild card: if AI reduces headcount in exactly the knowledge-worker industries that fill premier offices, the flight-to-quality tailwind could be overwhelmed by a shrinking total need for office space. BXP's gateway-market concentration in places like San Francisco and New York is a strength when those markets recover and a concentrated risk if they do not.
Then there is the lease-expiration and re-leasing math against the rate backdrop. Office leases are long, so the headline occupancy lags reality, and as leases signed in a stronger era expire, BXP must re-lease at whatever the current market bears, often with heavy tenant-improvement spending that depresses cash flow. The price at about 10 times AFFO is low for a reason: the market is pricing the structural risk that office demand stays impaired and that rising debt costs erode the equity. The bull case needs occupancy to keep climbing toward 91%, rates to ease the refinancing burden, and the AI-workforce threat to stay theoretical. If any of those breaks, a leveraged office REIT with depressed returns on equity has a thin cushion, and the asset-based methods sitting far below the price are the warning of how far the equity could fall in a sustained downturn.
Valuation
BXP is a REIT, so the coherent yardstick is funds from operations rather than an operating multiple. At about $65 (June 27, 2026) the price works out to roughly 10 times adjusted funds from operations, which places it in the lower half of the REIT peer group on price-to-AFFO. Inverting that at a cost of equity above 11% implies the trust lets its adjusted FFO decline about 4.9% a year. That is a pessimistic embedded assumption for a portfolio whose occupancy and leasing are improving and whose management just raised guidance.
The method families split along the cash-flow-versus-asset line. The FFO-multiple read, applying a cohort median to FFO per share of $8.01, lands near $107, well above the price, and the earnings-power, dividend-discount, relative, and most growth methods cluster in the $70s to above $100, all above the current quote. The dividend-discount read lands right around the price near $63. Only the asset-based and excess-return methods land far below, in the teens to low $20s, because they anchor on a book value of about $48.53 per share and a depressed 4.1% return on equity. The blended read across applicable methods is near $71, above the current price. The pattern is a stock the cash-flow frames see as cheap and the asset frames see as expensive.
The honest conclusion: the price is undemanding on cash flow but the asset methods flag the leverage and depressed returns that make office REITs risky. The bet is that BXP's premier portfolio keeps gaining occupancy toward its 89% and 91% targets, that the dividend near a 5% yield stays covered by FFO, and that the cost of refinancing debt does not overwhelm the recovery in cash flow. If that plays out, 10 times AFFO for an improving trophy-office portfolio is cheap. If office demand stays impaired, AI reduces the headcount that fills offices, or rising debt costs erode the equity, the asset methods sitting far below the price are the measure of the downside, and the low multiple is justified rather than a bargain.
Catalysts
The recent driver was a first-quarter 2026 beat and guidance raise. Revenue of $872.1 million topped forecasts, FFO of $1.59 per share beat the midpoint, and the company leased more than 1.1 million square feet with strength in New York and San Francisco. (Investing.com, Globe and Mail) Management raised full-year 2026 FFO guidance to $6.90 to $7.04 per share and lifted its average occupancy assumption to about 88.25%, with a year-end target near 89% and a 2027 target near 91%.
Leasing momentum and the development pipeline are the forward catalysts. BXP signed marquee leases including Boston Dynamics and a major law firm, and reported a leasing pipeline of roughly 3 million square feet supporting the occupancy ramp. The portfolio spans 50.4 million square feet across 164 properties in six gateway markets, with six properties under construction or redevelopment that add future earning space.
Income and sentiment frame the rest. BXP declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share, for a yield near 5%. (BusinessWire) Analyst sentiment is a Moderate Buy with a mean target around $69, modestly above the current price. (Barchart) The things to watch over the coming quarters: whether occupancy keeps climbing toward the 89% and 91% targets, the pace of lease signings and the conversion of the pipeline into reported occupancy, the cost of refinancing maturing debt, the trajectory of return-to-office demand in the gateway markets, and any sign that AI-driven workforce changes are affecting office space needs.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Boston / Los Angeles +4 more (reported)
- KRC (KILROY REALTY CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ESRT (Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ESBA (EMPIRE STATE REALTY OP, L.P.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CDP (COPT DEFENSE PROPERTIES)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SLG (SL GREEN REALTY CORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- REG (REGENCY CENTERS CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- KIM (KIMCO REALTY CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- BRX (Brixmor Property Group Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.