BOK FINANCIAL CORP (BOKF): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $137.48, BOK FINANCIAL CORP (BOKF) is priced for 11.7% return on equity. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-25.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/BOKF

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.5% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 10-year stage, on common book equity (FY2026).

How unusual the bet is: elevated

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Asset

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 5.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=4)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

The issuer is a funded financial business. Debt, interest, and cash flows are operating inputs, so industrial EV, net-debt, WACC, and free-cash-flow lenses do not apply; value the common-equity claim with book, earnings, capital, and payout economics.

No unit-level total common-equity value is stated. Each financial unit requires supported standalone common equity, normalized earnings, capital adequacy, and payout capacity. Consolidated debt, interest, and cash are operating balances, not an enterprise-to-equity bridge; company-level book, earnings, capital, and payout lenses remain the coherent cross-checks.

Solvency

Deposit/float-funded balance sheet: debt is funding, not corporate leverage, and GAAP operating cash flow follows loan flows. Net-debt, interest-coverage, and cash-burn lenses do not apply. The solvency frame for a financial is regulatory capital and payout capacity (CET1, stress buffer, dividends plus buybacks against earnings).

Bullet Takeaways

• Fee businesses do heavy lifting here that most regional banks cannot match: alongside commercial and consumer lending sits a wealth and mortgage-servicing operation, and second-quarter fees and commissions ran at 202.0 million dollars against 351.8 million dollars of net interest income.
• The specific risk is oil-priced and disclosed: "Outstanding energy loans totaled $2.9 billion, or 11% of total loans, at December 31, 2025, a $372 million decrease compared to December 31, 2024."
• What to watch is whether profitability actually steps up: the price assumes a return on equity around 12.3% held more or less indefinitely, a level the bank has not reached in its recent operating record, and the next several quarters of margin and fee income are where that gap narrows or does not.

Bull Case

The most encouraging number on this balance sheet is one that got smaller. Unrealized losses on the securities portfolio, the hole that rate increases punched through every bank's equity, have been closing: the 10-K records "an accumulated other comprehensive loss of $166 million at December 31, 2025, compared to an accumulated comprehensive loss of $503 million at December 31, 2024". That is not a cash event and it never was, but it was a real constraint on what management felt able to do with capital. As it drains away, the constraint goes with it.

Capital was never actually tight. The common equity tier 1 ratio stood at about 12.9% as filed at the end of 2025, with a total capital ratio of 14.77% and a leverage ratio of 9.86%. Those are comfortable numbers for a commercial bank, and management has been treating them that way: the filing states plainly that "We also repurchased $390 million of common shares during 2025." Roughly 97% of the year's earnings went back to shareholders as dividends and buybacks. A management team that thought it needed the capital would not do that.

What makes the business more interesting than a loan book is the fee side. Commercial Banking here carries the TransFund electronic funds network alongside ordinary corporate lending, Consumer Banking absorbs "all mortgage loan origination", and Wealth Management sits beside both. In the second quarter of 2026 fees and commissions came to 202.0 million dollars against net interest income of 351.8 million dollars. Better than a third of revenue arriving from activities that do not consume balance sheet is a structurally different business from a bank that only lends.

Funding has been getting cheaper, too. The 10-K reports funding costs of 3.06%, down 27 basis points, with the cost of interest-bearing deposits down 23 basis points to 2.91%. Deposits grew in the second quarter to 39.9 billion dollars, up 3.0% from March, while loans reached 27.1 billion dollars, up 3.4%. Growing both sides at once while paying less for the funding is the combination that lifts a bank's margin without requiring it to take more risk.

Against its cohort the fee mix is the differentiator. In the wealth comparison set, NTRS runs 8.35 billion dollars of revenue with the trailing line down 3.0%, while in commercial banking CFR carries 2.27 billion dollars growing 8.0% and CBSH 1.14 billion dollars growing 7.8%. This company sits in the middle of that range on scale and above most of it on fee contribution, which is the reason its earnings do not move purely with the rate cycle.

Bear Case

A bank that hands back essentially everything it earns is telling you where it does not see opportunity. Roughly 97% of last year's earnings left as dividends and buybacks, which leaves almost nothing retained to grow book value from the inside. That is a defensible policy for a mature franchise. It sits awkwardly next to what the share price is asking for, which is not a mature franchise at all but a step up in profitability that then holds for decades. At about 1.45 times book, the price is pricing a return on equity near 12.3% carried indefinitely, which is the same bet as an elite-tier pace held for 28 years before it fades toward ordinary. Recent performance has run closer to about 9.8%, and across its own long record the bank has averaged near that. So the price is paying for something the company has neither demonstrated nor is retaining capital to build.

The consequence is mechanical rather than rhetorical. What a bank's shares are worth relative to book is a function of the return earned on that book against the return investors demand. If profitability settles near where it has actually been rather than climbing to the elite tier, the multiple compresses back toward the middle of the range rather than the range rising to meet it. History is not encouraging on the durability question either. Of the institutions that have ever reached this level, only about 69% still held it ten years on.

A meaningful slice of the loan book is also lent against one commodity. The 10-K discloses "$ 2.9 billion or 11 % of total loans, including $ 2.2 billion of outstanding loans to energy producers", of which "Approximately 71 % of the committed production loans are secured by properties primarily producing oil and 29 % of the committed production loans are secured by properties primarily producing natural gas". Energy lending here is underwritten carefully and it has been shrinking rather than growing. That is not the same as being immune. A sustained move down in crude reprices the collateral behind roughly one loan dollar in nine, and it does so at the same time it slows the regional economies that carry the rest of the book.

Credit has already stopped improving. The filing notes that "Nonperforming assets not guaranteed by U.S. government agencies totaled $66 million at December 31, 2025, up from a historic low of $42 million at December 31, 2024". The absolute numbers are still small, and that is the honest framing. The direction is the point: a bank cannot keep releasing reserves once the trough is behind it, and provisioning that stops being a tailwind is exactly the kind of quiet change that turns a rising earnings line flat.

The most recent quarter shows how much of the reported result can come from items that do not repeat. Second-quarter net income was 176.5 million dollars, or $2.92 per diluted share; strip out a gain on the exchange of Visa B shares and a loss on repositioning the available-for-sale portfolio and the figures become 156.5 million dollars and $2.59. That is a gap of more than a tenth of the headline. A price already assuming an elite return has very little room for the underlying number to be the smaller one.

Valuation

A horizon of 28 years is a long time to assume anything about a bank. That is roughly what today's price implies: an elite-tier return on equity sustained that long before it fades toward ordinary, which comes to the same thing as holding about 12.3% forever. At about 1.45 times book, the price is not paying for continuation. It is paying for an improvement, and then for that improvement to prove unusually durable. What the bank has actually delivered is plainer than that. Recent profitability has run around 9.8% on trailing earnings measured against book equity, and its own multi-decade record sits close to the same place.

The methods used to triangulate divide along the line you would expect. The approaches built specifically for banks, valuing the shares against tangible book adjusted for the return actually earned and against the excess of that return over the cost of capital, all land below today's price. The approaches that treat the company as a generic earnings stream growing at its recent pace land above it. Neither set says the price is unsupportable; the spread between them is the argument, and it is really an argument about whether recent earnings growth off a rate-cycle trough is a rate or an event.

Capital is where a bank's downside actually lives, and here it is straightforward. The common equity tier 1 ratio was about 12.9% as filed at the end of 2025, the total capital ratio 14.77%, and the leverage ratio 9.86%. Standard coverage and leverage arithmetic does not apply to a balance sheet funded by customer deposits; the equivalent question is how much loss the capital stack can absorb before the dividend is at issue, and on these ratios the answer is a great deal. What that capital is not doing is compounding: with roughly 97% of earnings distributed, book value grows mainly through the buyback rather than through retention, and the filing records the mechanism directly at "3,656,259 common shares at an average price of $105.72 per share during 2025".

Cohort position depends on which segment you look through, which is the useful part of a three-segment bank. Against commercial banking peers, CFR carries 2.27 billion dollars of revenue growing 8.0% and CBSH 1.14 billion dollars growing 7.8%, both in the same organic range. Against wealth peers, NTRS operates at 8.35 billion dollars with its trailing revenue down 3.0%. The price-to-book here sits in the upper half of the peer group, which is a defensible place for a bank with this fee mix and this capital position, and a demanding one for a bank earning below ten percent on its equity.

The second quarter gave the clearest read available on which way the underlying line is moving. Net interest margin was 2.91%, up a single basis point from the prior quarter, while fees and commissions slipped to 202.0 million dollars from 209.8 million dollars. A margin holding flat and fee income easing is a business in balance rather than one accelerating, and the price is written for acceleration.

Catalysts

Second-quarter results landed on July 20, 2026, and they were better on the surface than underneath. Net income was 176.5 million dollars, or $2.92 per diluted share. Excluding a net gain on the exchange of Visa B shares and a loss from repositioning the available-for-sale securities portfolio, the figures were 156.5 million dollars and $2.59 per diluted share. Both items are real, both are one-time, and the difference between the two versions of the quarter is the number worth carrying forward.

Underneath the headline the operating trends were mixed in an informative way. Net interest income rose 9.3 million dollars to 351.8 million dollars and net interest margin edged up to 2.91% from 2.90% in the prior quarter, while fees and commissions eased to 202.0 million dollars from 209.8 million dollars. Balance sheet growth was the stronger signal: period-end loans reached 27.1 billion dollars, up 896 million dollars or 3.4% from March 31, and deposits reached 39.9 billion dollars, up 1.18 billion dollars or 3.0%.

The variable with the most leverage from here sits outside the company. Roughly one loan dollar in nine is lent against oil and gas production, weighted about seventy-thirty toward oil, so the commodity strip feeds directly into collateral values and into the regional economies the rest of the book serves. Energy exposure has been shrinking rather than building, which is the company's own risk decision showing up in the numbers, and the direction of that balance in coming quarters is the cleanest available read on how management sees the cycle.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Commercial Banking (reported)

• CFR (Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Operations" in Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and Note 17 - Operating Segments in the notes to consolidated financial statements included in Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data elsewhere in this report. Competition There is significant…
• FY2025 10-K: …which minimize risk as commodities are bought only to fill existing orders (back-to-back trading). As such, the commodity price risk and sale risk are eliminated. Commercial real estate loans are subject to underwriting standards and processes similar to commercial and industrial loans, in addition to those of real…
• CBSH (COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …are also subject to collateralization requirements and must be conducted on arm's length terms. Covered transactions include (a) a loan or extension of credit by the banking subsidiary, including derivative contracts, (b) a purchase of securities issued to a banking subsidiary, (c) a purchase of assets by the banking…
• FY2025 10-K: …innovation, convenience, reputation, industry knowledge, and price. In its two largest markets, the Company has approximately 10% of the deposit market share in Kansas City and approximately 7% of the deposit market share in St. Louis. Operating Segments The Company is managed in three operating segments: Commercial,…
• BOH (BANK OF HAWAII CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …a decrease in mortgage banking income. Commercial Banking Net income increased by $22.7 million or 19% in 2025 compared to the prior year, primarily due to an increase in net interest income and noninterest income, and a decrease in noninterest expense. Net interest income increased by $13.6 million or 6%, primarily…
• FY2025 10-K: 2026. We have evaluated the impact of the OBBBA and do not expect any material changes to our effective tax rate or results of operations. Analysis of Business Segments Our business segments are Consumer Banking, Commercial Banking, and Treasury and Other. Table 6 summarizes net income from our business segments for…
• UMBF (UMB FINANCIAL CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …regularly evaluate Business Segment financial results produced by the Company's internal reporting system in deciding how to allocate resources and assess performance for individual Business Segments. The management accounting system assigns balance sheet and income statement items to each Business Segment using…
• FY2025 10-K: …banking, installment loans, home equity lines of credit, and residential mortgages. The range of client services extends from a basic checking account to estate planning and trust services and includes private banking, brokerage services, and insurance services in addition to a full spectrum of investment advisory,…
• CBU (COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and any other fees or charges (other than bona fide insurance) that are related to the obligation or liability. The MLA applies to certain consumer loans and extends specific protections if an accountholder, at the time of account opening, is a covered active duty member of the military or certain family members…
• FY2025 10-K: …arrangements, excluding 4 properties that are in process of being opened for business in connection with the Bank's de novo branch expansions, all of which are under lease arrangements. The majority of the Company's properties are used by the Banking and Corporate segment which operates 192 full-service bank…
• BANF (BancFirst Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …our ability to charge NSF and overdraft fees. In addition, the Durbin Amendment is a provision in the larger Dodd-Frank Act that gave the Federal Reserve the authority to establish rates on debit card transactions. The Durbin Amendment aims to control debit card interchange fees and restrict anti-competitive…
• FY2025 10-K: …Allowance for Credit Losses Balance at beginning of period Initial allowance on loans purchased with credit deterioration Initial allowance on purchased seasoned loans Charge- offs Recoveries Net charge-offs Provision for/(benefit from) credit losses on loans Balance at end of period (Dollars in thousands) Year ended…
• FNB (FNB CORP/PA/)
• FY2025 10-K: …Banking segment an important source of revenue opportunity through products and services offered by our other business segments. The lending philosophy of the Community Banking segment is to establish high-quality customer relationships, while minimizing credit losses by following strict credit approval standards…
• FY2025 10-K: …entity. Our former registered investment advisory company, FNBIA, client accounts were transferred to FNTC, and FNBIA was deregistered in the fourth quarter 2025 with the company currently in the process of being dissolved. The Insurance segment consists of an insurance agency and a reinsurer. Community Banking Our…
• PNC (PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …account data and statement information, card activation, card renewals, and card suspension and blockage. Interchange fees are earned when cardholders make purchases and are presented in Table 120 net of credit card reward costs, which are earned by customers when they make purchases. The PNC Financial Services…
• FY2025 10-K: …loans for this business increased reflecting a higher average utilization of loan commitments and new production. • Commercial Banking provides lending, treasury management and capital markets products and services to smaller corporations and businesses. Average loans for this business declined driven by paydowns…

Consumer Banking (reported)

• CFR (Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Notwithstanding the foregoing, generally, commercial loans that become past due 180 cumulative days are charged-off. Generally, a consumer loan, or a portion thereof, is charged- 107 Table of Contents off in accordance with regulatory guidelines which provide that such loans be charged-off when we become aware of the…
• FY2025 10-K: …rulemaking authority for a wide range of consumer financial laws that apply to all banks, including, among other things, laws relating to fair lending and the authority to prohibit "unfair, deceptive or abusive" acts and practices. Abusive acts or practices are defined as those that materially interfere with a…
• CBSH (COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …at December 31, 2024 . Consumer Loans The consumer loans category is mostly comprised of private banking loans and automobile loans. Private banking loans comprised 40.4% of the consumer loan portfolio at December 31, 2025. The Company's private banking loans are mostly executive lines of credit, which are secured…
• FY2025 10-K: …other equipment, and unsecured consumer loans. 45 Table of Contents Net charge-offs on consumer loans, other than automobile and fixed rate home equity loans, totaled $3.4 million in 2025 and were .3% of the average balances of these loans at December 31, 2025. Consumer Credit Card Loans The Company offers low…
• BOH (BANK OF HAWAII CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …a decrease in mortgage banking income. Commercial Banking Net income increased by $22.7 million or 19% in 2025 compared to the prior year, primarily due to an increase in net interest income and noninterest income, and a decrease in noninterest expense. Net interest income increased by $13.6 million or 6%, primarily…
• FY2025 10-K: …comprehensive regulation by federal bank regulatory agencies. Banking regulations are primarily intended to protect depositors' funds, federal deposit insurance funds, and the banking system and the financial system as a whole, and not holders of our common stock. These regulations affect our lending practices,…
• UMBF (UMB FINANCIAL CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …banking, installment loans, home equity lines of credit, and residential mortgages. The range of client services extends from a basic checking account to estate planning and trust services and includes private banking, brokerage services, and insurance services in addition to a full spectrum of investment advisory,…
• FY2025 10-K: …Consumer credit card loans are revolving loans made to individuals. The primary risk associated with this collateral class is credit card debt which is generally unsecured; therefore, repayment depends primarily on a borrower's willingness and capacity to repay. The highly competitive environment for credit card…
• HWC (HANCOCK WHITNEY CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …consistent with their safe and sound operation, to help meet the credit needs of entire communities where the bank accepts deposits, including low- and moderate-income neighborhoods. The FDIC's assessment of the Bank's CRA record is made available to the public. Further, a less than satisfactory CRA rating will slow,…
• FY2025 10-K: …and residential-purpose properties. Such loans are made to builders and investors where repayment is expected to be made from the sale, refinance or operation of the property or to businesses to be used in their business operations. This portfolio also includes residential construction loans and loans secured by raw…
• FHB (FIRST HAWAIIAN, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …with its customers. These laws include, but are not limited to, the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, the Fair Credit Reporting Act, the Truth in Lending Act, the Truth in Savings Act, the Electronic Fund Transfer Act, the Expedited Funds Availability Act, the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, the Fair Housing Act, the Real…
• FY2025 10-K: ) ​ $ 880,788 ​ 153 Table of Contents ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Year Ended December 31, 2024 ​ ​ Retail ​ Commercial ​ Corporate/ ​ Consolidated (dollars in thousands) ​ ​ ​ Banking ​ ​ ​ Banking ​ ​ ​ Other ​ ​ ​ Total Net interest income (expense) (1) ​ $ 492,408 ​ $ 200,038 ​ $ ( 69,708 ) ​ $ 622,738 ​ ​ ​ ​…
• BANF (BancFirst Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …consumer protection laws that extensively govern our relationship with our customers. The Dodd-Frank Act established the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ("CFPB") with powers to supervise and enforce consumer protection laws. The CFPB has broad rule-making authority for a wide range of consumer protection laws…
• FY2025 10-K: …future charge-offs. If the models we use to measure the fair value of financial instruments are inadequate, the fair value of such financial instruments may fluctuate unexpectedly or may not accurately reflect what we could realize upon sale or settlement of such financial instruments. Any such failure in our…

Wealth Management (reported)

• NTRS (NORTHERN TRUST CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …subsidiaries, including support from locations in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region. At December 31, 2025, total Asset Servicing assets under custody/administration (AUC/A), assets under custody, and assets under management (AUM) were $17.4 trillion, $13.6 trillion, and $1.3…
• FY2025 10-K: …by investment firms as collateral for securities borrowed from custody clients are managed by Northern Trust and are included in assets under custody and assets under management Wealth Management Wealth Management fee income is calculated primarily based on market values of client AUC/A and AUM and is impacted by…
• CBSH (COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …due to higher salaries and benefits expense and allocated servicing and support costs for management and bank operations. These increases were partly offset by lower insurance and marketing expense. The provision for credit losses decreased $2.1 million from 2023, mainly due to lower commercial and industrial loan…
• FY2025 10-K: …services, along with business and governmental deposit products and commercial cash management services. This segment also includes both merchant and commercial bank card products as well as the Commercial Tradable Products division, which sells fixed-income securities, underwrites municipal bonds and provides…
• UMBF (UMB FINANCIAL CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk-Liquidity Risk" in Part II, Item 7A of this report for a discussion of how the Company monitors and manages liquidity risk. The Company's investment-management and asset-servicing businesses could be negatively impacted by declines in assets under management or…
• FY2025 10-K: …past due and restructured loans are discussed under "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure about Market Risk - Credit Risk Management" in Item 7A of this report. Investment Securities The Company's investment portfolio contains trading, available-for-sale (AFS), and held-to-maturity (HTM) securities as well as FRB…
• CFR (Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and internal audit are allocated to operating segments based on estimated uses of those services, and (ii) the parent company records the tax expense or benefit necessary to reconcile to the consolidated total. Our chief executive officer is our chief operating decision maker. We use a match-funded transfer pricing…
• FY2025 10-K: …capacity on behalf of our trust customers. The estimated fair value of trust assets was approximately $ 51.0 billion and $ 51.4 billion at December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. These assets are primarily composed of equity securities, fixed income securities, alternative investments and cash equivalents, among…
• BOH (BANK OF HAWAII CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …rates may have a material impact on earnings and valuation due to balance sheet cash flow, maturity structure and repricing frequency. The investment portfolio and loan portfolios have significant repricing volumes and cash flows from maturities and paydowns, providing opportunities to redeploy funds in order to…
• FY2025 10-K: …Senior Executive Director of Wealth Management - January 2022-present. Prior experience includes several senior executive leadership roles in wealth management at Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Chase Manhattan. At Wells Fargo, 8 Table of Contents Mr. Abbruzzese served as Regional Managing Director overseeing its…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.