BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN): what the price assumes

Generated: 2026-07-29 · Exported: 2026-08-01 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/BMRN

Headline

Field	Value
Ticker	BMRN
Company	BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc
Sector / Industry	Healthcare
Current price	$61.89/sh
Composition	VOXZOGO 29% / VIMIZIM 25% / NAGLAZYME 15% / PALYNZIQ 13% / ALDURAZYME 6% / BRINEURA 6% / KUVAN 3% / ROCTAVIAN 1% / Royalty and other revenues 2%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Field	Value
Inversion basis	whole-company
Operating margin (value-band context)	3.2%
Operating margin today	9.7%
Margin compression (value-band)	-6.5pp
Implied growth	24.4%
Multiple paid	36x operating income

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 9: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 8% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~9.1pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~7.3 years; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: elevated

Reference	Value
vs own history	+0.48σ
cohort percentile (of 116 peers)	81
sustained it ~5 years at this level	36%
implied end-window share	0%

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Family	Median price/FV	Models	Reads
Asset	6.31x	5	expensive
Earnings	2.91x	4	expensive
Relative	1.37x	3	expensive
Growth	0.85x	3	justifies

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.3%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

Model	Family	FV	Price/FV	Applicable	Methodology
DCF Perpetual Growth	Growth	$106.59	0.58x	yes	FCF base $0.8B, growth 10% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.3%, 6yr projection
DCF Exit Multiple	Growth	$72.60	0.85x	yes	Exit EV/EBITDA: 26.7x / 28.7x / 30.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr
Relative Valuation	Relative	$45.06	1.37x	yes	P/E 30.15x (blended: static sector reference 24x + trailing (TTM) 45x), scenarios: 25.1x / 30.1x / 35.2x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 19.81x
Simple DDM	Growth	—	—	no	—
Two-Stage DDM	Growth	—	—	no	—
Simple Excess Return	Asset	$15.03	4.12x	yes	BV/sh $32.14, ROE (TTM) 4.3%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess Return	Asset	$9.81	6.31x	yes	5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market Cap	Growth	$49.00	1.26x	yes	Rev $3.2B, growth 10% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 3.1x / 3.7x / 4.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Growth-Adjusted P/E	Relative	—	—	no	—
Margin Trajectory	Growth	—	—	no	—
Earnings Power Value	Earnings	$14.37	4.31x	yes	Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.26B × (1−25%) / WACC 8.3% → EPV (no growth)
Residual Income	Asset	$8.40	7.37x	yes	BV $32.14 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 4.3% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 2.8%/yr
Graham Number	Asset	$31.70	1.95x	yes	√(22.5 × EPS $1.39 × BVPS $32.14) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA Relative	Relative	$36.31	1.70x	yes	EBITDA $0.39B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x
FCF Yield	Earnings	$47.00	1.32x	yes	FCF $767.1M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF Yield	Earnings	$36.53	1.69x	yes	SBC-adj FCF $0.58B (FCF $0.77B − SBC $0.19B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham Formula	Earnings	$1.16	53.35x	yes	EPS $1.39 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median)
ROIC-Justified P/B	Asset	$6.88	9.00x	yes	BV $32.14 × (ROIC 1.8% / WACC 8.3%)
P/Sales Sector	Relative	$67.10	0.92x	yes	Revenue $3.24B × sector P/S 4.0x
PEG Fair Value	Relative	—	—	no	—
Earnings Yield	Earnings	$15.03	4.12x	yes	EPS $1.39 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations Multiple	Relative	—	—	no	—
Clinical Phase NPV	Growth	—	—	no	—
Merton	Asset	—	—	no	—
V5 Mechanical	—	—	—	no	—

Solvency

Field	Value
Net cash	$791.6m
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)	-3.36x (net cash)
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)	-2.51x (net cash)
Share count CAGR (dilution)	0.4%
Burning cash	no

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

• BioMarin sells into disease populations so small that, apart from PALYNZIQ and KUVAN, the annual filing states its therapies "have no direct approved competition currently on the market in the U.S. or the EU", though rivals are in development.
• Concentration is the flip side of that position: VOXZOGO alone is 29% of revenue, and the company's most recent attempt to add a fourth growth leg ended with ROCTAVIAN pulled from the market by management decision in December 2025.
• The next scheduled event is a supplemental application to the FDA for VOXZOGO in hypochondroplasia, planned for the third quarter of 2026 after a Phase 3 trial met its primary endpoint.

Bull Case

Run this company through the standard machinery and the output looks terrible. A reported return on equity in the low single digits, set against a required return closer to ten percent, makes every book-value method read the shares as wildly expensive. Capitalize last year's profit with no growth credited and the answer is the same. Both readings are arithmetically correct and analytically misleading, because the year they are built on contains a decision the company made to stop selling one of its own products.

That decision is in the filing in plain language. On December 17, 2025 management "committed to a plan to voluntarily withdraw ROCTAVIAN from the market due to lower than previously anticipated commercial opportunities". Pulling a launched product means writing off its inventory and impairing the plant and equipment built to supply it, and both landed inside the same reported twelve months. Operating income of 583.7 million dollars on revenue of 3.24 billion is what came through that. Reported net income of 268.7 million is what was left afterward. A model that reads the second figure as the earning power of the franchise is reading a demolition invoice as a run rate.

What the machinery genuinely cannot see is the shape of the demand. "Other than PALYNZIQ and KUVAN, as described below, our products have no direct approved competition currently on the market in the U.S. or the EU" is a disclosure, not a marketing claim. For a business turning over more than three billion dollars a year, having essentially no approved competitor across most of the portfolio is a structural position that no peer-multiple lens knows how to record. The filing also explains why it holds: "because the number of potential patients in each disease population is small, it is not only important to find patients who begin therapy to achieve significant market penetration of the product, but we also need to be able to maintain these patients on therapy for an extended period of time". A child started on enzyme replacement for a lifelong genetic condition stays on it. Revenue here behaves less like a sales funnel and more like a census.

VOXZOGO is where the growth sits, and it is about to be pointed at a second population. A Phase 3 trial in children with hypochondroplasia met its primary endpoint with gains in height and arm span against placebo, and the company intends to file a supplemental application with the FDA in the third quarter of 2026. An approval there widens the treatable population for a drug that already accounts for 29% of revenue, using the same specialist physicians, the same distribution and the same manufacturing.

The inorganic move points the same direction. BioMarin completed the purchase of Amicus Therapeutics on April 27, 2026 for 14.50 dollars a share in cash, an equity value of roughly 4.8 billion dollars, adding GALAFOLD and the POMBILITI and OPFOLDA combination. Those are rare-disease products sold to the same physicians through the same channels. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance sits at 3.83 to 3.93 billion dollars. The logic is not clever, which is a point in its favour: a company that has built rare-disease commercial infrastructure buying more rare-disease products to run through it.

Underneath, cash generation is considerably healthier than the earnings line implies. Free cash flow ran near 767 million dollars while reported net income came in at well under half that, which is exactly the signature of a year absorbing non-cash write-offs. On the capital structure that existed before the acquisition, operating profit covered the interest bill about 34 times over. And the share count has barely moved across four years, so none of this progress was paid for by handing out equity.

Bear Case

The trouble with owning a portfolio of drugs that have no approved competitors is that the same sentence describes the ceiling. Each of these therapies treats a population measured in thousands of people worldwide. There is no share left to take, because BioMarin already has it. Growth therefore has to come from diagnosing patients who have not been found, from opening new countries, or from launching new products. The first is slow, the second is slower, and the third is where the company most recently and most expensively failed.

ROCTAVIAN was that failure. A one-time gene therapy for severe haemophilia A, developed over years, approved, launched, and then withdrawn: on December 17, 2025 management "committed to a plan to voluntarily withdraw ROCTAVIAN from the market due to lower than previously anticipated commercial opportunities". It still appears in the revenue mix at roughly 1%. The lesson is not that gene therapy is bad. It is that a rare-disease franchise does not transfer automatically to the next rare disease, and that the accounting for a failure arrives compressed into one year while the spending that produced it was spread across many.

Only now do the ratios matter, and they are stark. Measured against book value and the returns earned on it, the asset-based approaches leave a premium of roughly 519%, which follows directly from a reported return on equity in the low single digits set against a required return closer to ten percent. The earnings-power approaches leave a premium near 180%. Peer-multiple approaches leave a premium near 36%. A bull will answer, correctly, that these are all reading a distorted year. A bear answers that the distortion was a management decision, not weather, and that the company has to demonstrate the undistorted year before anyone can price it.

The cohort comparison at BioMarin's exact size is the part that stings. NBIX carries almost the same revenue base, 3.10 billion dollars, at a 25.4% operating margin while growing 28.6%. BMRN produced an 18.8% operating margin on 3.24 billion dollars of revenue. EXEL, smaller at 2.38 billion, runs a 39.4% operating margin. VRTX, roughly four times the size, runs 38.3%. Rare-disease economics clearly permit very high margins. This particular portfolio is not currently producing them, and the price is being asked to look past that.

The balance sheet is also a different object than it was six months ago. The annual filing reported cash, cash equivalents and investments totalling 2.1 billion dollars as of December 31, 2025, against debt obligations of 600.0 million. Funding the acquisition added a two billion dollar seven-year term loan, an 800 million dollar five-year term loan, and 850 million dollars of 5.500% senior unsecured notes due 2034. A company that was effectively a net creditor to its own capital structure is now a borrower of size. The interest obligation is contractual and fixed. VOXZOGO's expansion is neither.

And the product carrying the growth is precisely the one competitors are aiming at. The filing names them: VOXZOGO, for hypochondroplasia, "could have competition from clinical stage products under development by Ascendis Pharma A/S and QED Therapeutics, Inc. (a subsidiary of BridgeBio Pharma, Inc.), and a preclinical product candidate from Tyra Biosciences Inc." A supplemental approval in a new indication is worth considerably less if two funded competitors reach the same indication a few years later. The same document warns that without protected intellectual property the company "may not be able to compete effectively or preserve our market shares", which in a business with nine products and no generic pressure yet is the single quietest risk on the list.

Valuation

What the price asks for here is unusually modest, and that is the first thing to register. Today's quote pays about 18 times company-wide operating income, and inverted it embeds operating profit growing roughly 5% a year over a five-year stretch, discounted near 8% with 4% growth assumed beyond it. Treat those as approximations from a single solve rather than measurements. The point is the size of the ask, not its decimals.

Two reference points, both benign. The implied pace sits inside what the company has recently delivered, so nothing here requires acceleration. And against the wider set of comparable biopharmaceutical names, the multiple falls in the lower half of the range. Taken together the embedded assumption reads as broadly consistent with plausible growth, which is not a common verdict in this sector and is the most useful single fact about the current price.

The methods still disagree violently, and the shape of the disagreement is more informative than any one of them. Book-value approaches leave a premium of roughly 519%, running as they do off a reported return on equity stuck in the low single digits. Earnings-power approaches leave a premium near 180% for the same underlying reason. Peer-multiple approaches leave a premium near 36%. The forward cash-flow methods land above today's price altogether, reaching there by projecting a double-digit expansion rate off a free cash flow base rather than off reported profit. So the static frames and the forward frames are not arguing about the business. They are arguing about which twelve months to treat as representative, and the twelve months in question contain a product withdrawal.

Two filing-sourced inputs anchor the rest. The annual filing reports cash, cash equivalents and investments totalling 2.1 billion dollars as of December 31, 2025, against debt obligations of 600.0 million, a position that predates the acquisition financing. And the revenue base is concentrated by design: VOXZOGO at 29%, VIMIZIM at 25% and NAGLAZYME at 15% are the largest three of nine lines, with one of those nine, ROCTAVIAN at roughly 1%, being the product management committed to withdraw in December 2025.

Management's own forecasting record is a legitimate input and it is better than most. Since 2006 it has raised guidance on 15 separate occasions, cut it on 2, reaffirmed it on 9, and withdrawn it once. Of three revenue guides that can be scored against reported results, two were delivered. That track record is what gives the current 2026 range of 3.83 to 3.93 billion dollars its weight. On the pre-acquisition capital structure operating profit covered interest roughly 34 times over, and the share count has been essentially flat across four years. The acquisition changes the first of those and leaves the second alone, which is the cleanest way to state what has actually shifted: the growth now has a fixed obligation to service as well as itself to fund.

Catalysts

The defining event of the year has already happened. BioMarin completed its acquisition of Amicus Therapeutics on April 27, 2026, paying 14.50 dollars a share in cash for an equity value of roughly 4.8 billion dollars and adding GALAFOLD along with the POMBILITI and OPFOLDA combination to the commercial portfolio. The financing was assembled over the winter: 850 million dollars of 5.500% senior unsecured notes due 2034 priced on January 29 and closed on February 12, 2026, alongside a two billion dollar seven-year term loan, an 800 million dollar five-year term loan, and a 600 million dollar five-year revolving facility.

The clinical calendar is where the next move comes from. A Phase 3 trial of VOXZOGO in children with hypochondroplasia met its primary endpoint, showing gains in height and arm span against placebo, and the company plans to file a supplemental new drug application with the FDA in the third quarter of 2026. The same set of materials points to FDA approval of PALYNZIQ for adolescents and to a separate acquisition of Inozyme, with full-year 2026 revenue guided to 3.83 to 3.93 billion dollars.

Working in the other direction is an event already booked. The voluntary withdrawal of ROCTAVIAN, committed to on December 17, 2025, is done, and its accounting consequences sit inside the trailing figures rather than ahead of them. That matters for how the next few quarters read: as the withdrawal charges roll out of the comparison, reported profitability should look materially different without the underlying business having changed at all. Distinguishing that optical recovery from genuine operating improvement is the main analytical task of the next several prints.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

BioMarin (consolidated) (reported)

• ACAD (ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …strategy and are designed to enhance our competitive position, drive innovation, and meet the evolving needs of patients worldwide. The four core capabilities in which we are investing are: 1. Precision Medicine . We are focused on integrating strategies that address the variability in patients' responses to…
• FY2025 10-K: …any way our opinion on the consolidated financial statements, taken as a whole, and we are not, by communicating the critical audit matter below, providing a separate opinion on the critical audit matter or on the accounts or disclosures to which it relates. F- 1 Medicare Part D sales rebate accruals Description of…
• ALKS (Alkermes plc.)
• FY2025 10-K: 4 Reduction of accounts receivable $ 21,049 $ 22,031 Components of accrued sales discounts, allowances and reserves 247,126 272,452 Components of other long-term liabilities 47,860 41,944 Total revenue-related reserves $ 316,035 $ 336,427 Collaborative Arrangements The Company has entered into collaborative…
• FY2025 10-K: …to terminate the license and collaboration agreement following any governmental prohibition of the transactions effected by the agreement, or in connection with an insolvency event involving the other party. Upon termination of the license and collaboration agreement by either party, then, at our request, the…
• VRTX (VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC / MA)
• FY2025 10-K: …( 15.9 ) 127.8 Retained earnings 13,560.0 9,606.8 Total shareholders' equity 18,665.8 16,409.6 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity $ 25,643.0 $ 22,533.2 The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements. F-6 VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED Consolidated Statements of…
• FY2025 10-K: …capacities and on the dates indicated. Name Title Date /s/ Reshma Kewalramani Reshma Kewalramani President, Chief Executive Officer and Director (Principal Executive Officer) February 13, 2026 /s/ Charles F. Wagner, Jr. Charles F. Wagner, Jr. Executive Vice President and Chief Operating & Financial Officer (Principal…
• EXEL (EXELIXIS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …late-stage clinical development program in other indications. With a rational and disciplined approach to investment, we are leveraging our internal experience and expertise, and the strength of strategic partnerships, to identify and pursue opportunities across the landscape of scientific modalities, including small…
• FY2025 10-K: …thyroid cancer (DTC) and previously treated, unresectable, locally advanced or metastatic, well-differentiated pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNET) and extra-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (epNET); and as COMETRIQ® (cabozantinib) capsules for progressive, metastatic medullary thyroid cancer (MTC). For physicians…
• BIIB (BIOGEN INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …royalty revenue on biosimilar products from our license arrangements with Samsung Bioepis and royalties we receive from net sales on products related to patents that we have out-licensed. For additional information on our license arrangements with Samsung Bioepis and our collaboration arrangements with Eisai, please…
• FY2025 10-K: …expense in our consolidated statements of income to their respective line items when these costs were incurred. 2013 Commercial Agreement In December 2013 we entered into an agreement with Samsung Bioepis to commercialize, over a 10-year term, three anti-TNF biosimilar product candidates which includes IMRALDI, an…
• REGN (REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …projections or guidance; • the potential for any license or collaboration agreement, including our agreements with Sanofi and Bayer (or their respective affiliated companies, as applicable), to be cancelled or terminated; • the impact of public health outbreaks, epidemics, or pandemics on our business; and • risks…
• FY2025 10-K: …EU, Japan Fasenra ® (benralizumab) AstraZeneca Asthma United States, EU, Japan Nucala ® (mepolizumab) GlaxoSmithKline ("GSK") Asthma, nasal polyps, COPD United States, EU, Japan Exdensur ® (depemokimab) GSK Asthma, CRSwNP United States, Japan Xolair ® (omalizumab) Roche/Novartis Asthma, nasal polyps, CSU United…
• NBIX (NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: .2 of the Company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed on May 3, 2023 10.9* Description: First Amendment to the Collaboration and License Agreement, effective April 3, 2024, between the Company and Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. Reference: Incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.2 of the Company's Quarterly Report on…
• FY2025 10-K: …Securities Exchange Act of 1934 32** Description: Certifications of Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350, as adopted pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 97 + Description: Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. Clawback Policy Reference: Incorporated by…
• HRMY (HARMONY BIOSCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …territories, which are rights originally licensed from Teijin Pharma, the innovator of BP1.15205. We further broadened our portfolio into rare epilepsy when the Company acquired Epygenix Therapeutics, Inc. ("Epygenix") in April 2024. As a result, the Company now has an exclusive license relating to the use of…
• FY2025 10-K: ​ 59,469,648 Weighted average number of shares of common stock - diluted ​ 58,544,570 ​ 57,869,915 ​ 60,372,397 ​ (1) Includes $ 15,000 in related party expenses for the year ended December 31, 2025, and no related party expenses for the years ended December 31, 2024, and 2023. The accompanying notes are an integral…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

BioMarin first-quarter 2026 earnings materials · BioMarin acquisition closing announcement, April 2026 · BioMarin 2026 guidance, first-quarter 2026 earnings materials · BioMarin financing announcements, January and February 2026