BUCKLE, INC (BKE): what the price requires
At today's price, BUCKLE, INC (BKE) is priced for -2.4% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/BKE
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | BKE |
| Company | BUCKLE, INC |
| Current price | $42.70/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 8.3% |
| Operating margin today | 18.5% |
| Margin compression implied | -10.2pp |
| Implied growth | -2.4% |
| Multiple paid | 11x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 9.3% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~5pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.37σ |
| cohort percentile (of 210 peers) | 18 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 0.91x | 5 | justifies |
| Earnings | 1.02x | 4 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.68x | 5 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.90x | 4 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.8%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $112.81 | 0.38x | yes | FCF base $0.2B, growth 7% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 7.8%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $57.57 | 0.74x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 8.4x / 10.4x / 12.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $68.52 | 0.62x | yes | P/E 15.93x (blended: static sector reference 20x + trailing (TTM) 10x), scenarios: 13.3x / 15.9x / 18.6x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 14x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $40.30 | 1.06x | yes | Stage 1: 14% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $46.94 | 0.91x | yes | BV/sh $9.00, ROE (TTM) 48.3%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $128.53 | 0.33x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $33.60 | 1.27x | yes | Rev $1.3B, growth 7% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.4x / 1.7x / 1.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $63.08 | 0.68x | yes | EPS $4.36, growth 14% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.68 (Undervalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $37.36 | 1.14x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.28B × (1−25%) / WACC 7.8% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $75.73 | 0.56x | yes | BV $9.00 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 48.3% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $29.71 | 1.44x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $4.36 × BVPS $9.00) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $62.81 | 0.68x | yes | EBITDA $0.28B × sector EV/EBITDA 14.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $31.72 | 1.35x | yes | FCF $220.9M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $136.79 | 0.31x | yes | EPS $4.36 × (8.5 + 2×14.5%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $4.20 | 10.17x | yes | BV $9.00 × (ROIC 3.7% / WACC 7.8%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $38.66 | 1.10x | yes | Revenue $1.31B × sector P/S 1.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $94.62 | 0.45x | yes | EPS $4.36 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 14.5% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 21.7x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $47.14 | 0.91x | yes | EPS $4.36 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $23.8m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | -0.14x (net cash) |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | -0.11x (net cash) |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 0.7% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
Buckle is debt-free with net cash, a 21 percent operating margin, and a return on equity above 48 percent, and it returns nearly all its cash via dividends, including a 3.00 dollar special dividend on top of the 0.35 dollar quarterly payout.
The price near 45 dollars implies roughly flat operating growth (about negative 0.2 percent per year), an undemanding bar for a retailer comping positively, with Q1 2026 comparable sales up 5.1 percent and net sales up 6.1 percent.
The risk is cyclicality, not solvency: as a mall-based teen-apparel retailer with a mature store base, the current above-trend comps and 48 percent return on equity are cycle-dependent and historically mean-revert.
Bull Case
The balance sheet tells you almost everything about how Buckle is run. The company carries no debt and sits on net cash, and it has done so through every retail cycle of the past two decades. That is not an accident; it is a statement of how management thinks about the business. A debt-free retailer with a 21 percent operating margin and a return on equity above 48 percent does not need to chase growth or take financing risk to reward shareholders. It simply generates cash and hands most of it back. The clearest evidence of management's confidence is the dividend policy: alongside a steady 0.35 dollar quarterly payout, Buckle declared a 3.00 dollar per share special dividend, the kind of payout a company makes only when its cash position is genuinely surplus and its outlook is secure.
The operating results justify that confidence. In the most recent quarter net sales rose 6.1 percent to 288.7 million dollars, comparable store sales grew 5.1 percent, and net income came in at 46.9 million, or 0.93 dollars per share. Year-to-date comparable sales were up 7.4 percent. For a mall-based denim and apparel retailer, positive mid-single-digit comps are a strong result; it means the merchandising and the loyal customer base are intact even as broader teen retail struggles.
The valuation leaves room because the market prices Buckle as a no-growth business. At about 45 dollars the price implies operating growth of roughly negative 0.2 percent per year, essentially flat to declining. Yet the company is comping positively and earning extraordinary returns on a tiny capital base. The asset and earnings-power methods land near or above the price, and the dividend-discount read at about 40 dollars is in the neighborhood, but the relative and forward-growth methods land well higher, in the 60 to 110 dollar range, because they credit even modest growth. The bull case is that you are paid a large, well-covered dividend to own a pristine balance sheet and a franchise the market assumes will stand still.
Bear Case
The structural truth a Buckle holder has to face is that the multiples are pricing what has not yet happened, in the form of a continued strong comp from a business that historically mean-reverts. Buckle is a mall-based teen-and-young-adult apparel retailer, a category defined by fashion cycles and fickle traffic. The recent run of positive comparable sales is genuinely good, but it follows the rhythm this industry always follows: a hot denim or fashion cycle lifts results, then fades. The price at about 45 dollars, while it looks like it embeds no growth, is really embedding the assumption that the current above-trend comps hold. Strip out one strong fashion season and the operating margin, today an enviable 21 percent, has room to give back several points fast, because store-level costs are largely fixed.
The growth ceiling is real and structural. Buckle operates a mature store base with little new-unit expansion, no meaningful e-commerce flywheel relative to larger peers, and a customer concentrated in mall traffic that has been in secular decline. Competitors like American Eagle and Abercrombie have larger digital businesses and broader brand reach. The company's revenue has grown only in the mid-single digits in good years and shrunk in bad ones, which is precisely why the market assigns it a low multiple. The two-stage excess-return model that lands above 120 dollars assumes the current 48 percent return on equity persists for years; that return is a function of a tiny equity base and a strong cycle, not a durable moat, and it will compress as the cycle normalizes.
The capital-return story, attractive as it is, also caps the upside. A company paying out nearly all of its earnings in regular and special dividends is signaling that it has no high-return reinvestment opportunities. That is shareholder-friendly, but it means the stock is essentially a bond-like income vehicle whose coupon depends on apparel fashion holding up. When comps turn negative, both the share price and the special dividend shrink together. The bear case is not that Buckle is badly run; it is that paying for the current peak comp in a structurally low-growth, cyclical retailer is a bet on the cycle, dressed up as a value purchase.
Valuation
Buckle inverts to a strikingly undemanding number. At about 45 dollars the market pays roughly 11 times company-wide operating income, which solves to operating growth of about negative 0.2 percent per year over five years, computed at a 9.4 percent cost of capital with 4 percent terminal growth. In plain terms, the price assumes the business is flat to slightly shrinking. That is a low bar for a company currently comping positively, which is why the priced-in assumption reads as within range rather than stretched.
The model families cluster in a way that brackets the price. The earnings-power family is supportive, with a zero-growth FCF capitalization near 32 dollars and normalized Earnings Power Value near 37 dollars, both reflecting the high-margin, cash-generative core. The dividend-discount read lands near 40 dollars, close to the price, which makes sense for a stock that functions largely as an income vehicle. The relative and forward-growth families land higher, between roughly 35 and 110 dollars, because they credit even modest growth at a normal retail multiple. The asset-based excess-return reads are the wildest, ranging from about 47 dollars to over 120, because the company's return on equity of 48 percent sits so far above its cost of equity that small assumptions about how long that persists swing the output dramatically.
The honest read is that Buckle is fairly priced as a no-growth, high-payout retailer and cheap if you believe the current comp momentum is durable. The balance sheet removes downside risk from leverage entirely: net cash, no debt, and a dividend funded comfortably from earnings. The buyer's real question is not solvency or value but cyclicality, whether the recent positive comps represent a new run rate or the top of a fashion cycle.
Catalysts
The quarterly comparable-sales print is the primary catalyst, because the entire debate is whether the recent strength is durable. Q1 fiscal 2026 (quarter ended May 2, 2026) delivered net sales up 6.1 percent to 288.7 million dollars, comparable store sales up 5.1 percent, and net income of 46.9 million dollars, or 0.93 dollars per diluted share, with results aided by a legal settlement (StockTitan 10-Q, Buckle 8-K). Year-to-date comparable sales were up 7.4 percent. Buckle also reports monthly sales, giving a high-frequency read on whether the comp momentum holds.
The dividend cadence is the catalyst income investors watch. Buckle continues its 0.35 dollar quarterly dividend and declared a 3.00 dollar per share special dividend, both scheduled around January 2026 (Simply Wall St special dividend). Because the special payout scales with the cash the business generates, the size of the next special dividend is itself a signal about management's confidence in the year ahead.
Sentiment is muted, which fits the no-growth framing. The average analyst rating is Hold with a 12-month price target near 47 dollars, close to the current price (Yahoo Finance, Simply Wall St). The watch items into the next prints are whether comps stay positive as fashion cycles shift, the gross-margin trend, and the magnitude of the next special dividend.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
The Buckle (retail) (reported)
- ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Co.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AEO (American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- URBN (Urban Outfitters, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- BOOT (BOOT BARN HOLDINGS, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- LEVI (LEVI STRAUSS & CO)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- COLM (COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR COMPANY)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CRI (Carter's, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AS (Amer Sports, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.