BIOGEN INC. (BIIB): what the price requires
The current priced-in claim for BIOGEN INC. (BIIB) is temporarily suppressed because the live engine record is unavailable. The dated report remains a snapshot, not a current market read.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/BIIB
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | BIIB |
| Company | BIOGEN INC. |
| Current price | $209.54/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Multiple paid | 12x operating income |
The price sits below what even a 5%/yr operating-profit decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.1% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~0.9%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.81σ |
| cohort percentile (of 112 peers) | 13 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 2.23x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.89x | 3 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.32x | 3 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.03x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.8%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=13)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $204.27 | 1.03x | yes | FCF base $2.4B, growth 1% (input: historical growth), terminal g 1.2%, WACC 7.8%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $211.98 | 0.99x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 45.0x / 47.0x / 49.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $158.50 | 1.32x | yes | P/E 24x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 20.2x / 24.0x / 27.8x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 25.3x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $99.94 | 2.10x | yes | BV/sh $125.69, ROE (TTM) 7.4%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $88.69 | 2.36x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $140.83 | 1.49x | yes | Rev $9.9B, growth 1% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.6x / 3.1x / 3.6x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $10.39 | 20.17x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.75B × (1−15%) / WACC 7.8% → EPV (no growth) (excluded from median) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $87.01 | 2.41x | yes | BV $125.69 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 7.4% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 4.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $162.17 | 1.29x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $9.30 × BVPS $125.69) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $42.15 | 4.97x | yes | EBITDA $0.80B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $132.29 | 1.58x | yes | FCF $2422.9M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $110.89 | 1.89x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $2.13B (FCF $2.42B − SBC $0.29B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $7.79 | 26.90x | yes | EPS $9.30 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $267.85 | 0.78x | yes | Revenue $9.94B × sector P/S 4.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $100.54 | 2.08x | yes | EPS $9.30 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 0.1% |
| Burning cash | no |
Operating profit is negative or near zero and the company has no demonstrated through-cycle (mid-cycle) operating margin to normalize against, so years-to-repay cannot be computed honestly.
Operating profit is negative or near zero and there is no demonstrated through-cycle (mid-cycle) operating margin to normalize against, so interest coverage cannot be computed honestly.
Bullet Takeaways
At about 196 dollars Biogen trades near 11 times operating income, below what even a 5 percent annual profit decline would warrant, so the price embeds contraction even as Q1 2026 non-GAAP EPS rose 18 percent.
The growth engines are scaling: Leqembi grew 74 percent year over year to 168 million dollars and Skyclarys 22 percent to 151 million, while the legacy multiple sclerosis franchise declines under biosimilar pressure.
Capital allocation has shifted the balance sheet from net cash to about 5.4 billion dollars of net debt through a run of acquisitions, leaving the thesis dependent on pipeline readouts due mid-2026 (BIIB080 tau, BIIB122 Parkinson's).
Bull Case
The market is pricing Biogen as a melting ice cube, and the gap between that read and the actual numbers is the opportunity. At about 196 dollars the price works out to roughly 11 times company-wide operating income, which sits below what even a 5 percent annual decline in operating profit would warrant. In other words, the price assumes the business shrinks. Yet the most recent quarter showed total revenue of 2.5 billion dollars, up 2 percent year over year, with non-GAAP diluted EPS of 3.57 dollars, up 18 percent. That is not a company in freefall; that is a company the market has decided to disbelieve.
What the fundamentals actually show is a portfolio turning a corner. Leqembi, the Alzheimer's antibody co-developed with Eisai, grew 74 percent year over year to 168 million dollars in the quarter, and Skyclarys added 151 million, up 22 percent. The 10-K records the launch economics directly, noting "collaboration revenue upon the accelerated approval of LEQEMBI in the U.S." (accession 0000875045-25-000009). The newer products, which the filing groups as items that "became commercially available in the U.S." recently (accession 0000875045-25-000009), are scaling fast enough to offset the legacy multiple sclerosis decline that has scared the price down.
The static valuation frames cannot see this. Asset-based models land near 90 to 100 dollars on a depressed trailing return on equity, and the peer multiple lands near 156 dollars. Only the growth-DCF reaches today's price, which means the bet is on durable compounding that the backward-looking models structurally cannot price. The balance sheet supports the wait: interest coverage above 10 times, net debt manageable at under 2 times operating income, and a current margin near 29 percent. The bull case is simply that the new launches compound faster than the old franchise fades.
Bear Case
The cleanest place to start the bear case is what management does with cash, because Biogen's recent history is a string of acquisitions made to replace a fading core, and the scoreboard on those is not yet proven. The company pays no dividend, and instead has spent heavily buying its way into new franchises, from the Reata deal that brought Skyclarys to the Human Immunology Biosciences and Sage transactions. That choice converted a cash-rich balance sheet into roughly 5.4 billion dollars of net debt with interest coverage at about 10 times. The 10-K is candid that the whole model rests on continued dealmaking and innovation, that "our competitive position depends upon our success in discovering and developing innovative, cost-effective products that serve unmet medical needs" (accession 0000875045-25-000009). When the pipeline carries the company, every missed readout is expensive.
The core is genuinely eroding underneath the new launches. The multiple sclerosis franchise, long the profit engine, is under biosimilar and competitive pressure, and the 10-K shows the product revenue line falling, with the relevant grouping down 9.3 percent in the period it reports (accession 0000875045-25-000009). HSBC's bear thesis frames FY26 total revenue potentially declining mid-single digits toward 9.4 billion dollars, anchored on that same MS decline. Leqembi is growing fast but from a small base, and its uptake has been slower than the original Alzheimer's-drug excitement implied.
The valuation methods disagree in a way that favors caution. The earnings-power and Graham-style models, which lean on normalized operating income, land far below the price, with Earnings Power Value near 11 dollars on a depressed normalized EBIT base. The asset and relative families cluster between roughly 90 and 160 dollars. Only the forward-growth method reaches 196. That spread says the price already embeds the successful turnaround. If BIIB080 or BIIB122 disappoint at their mid-2026 readouts, or the Leqembi ramp stalls, the cheap-looking multiple turns out to have been pricing a decline correctly.
Valuation
Biogen is best understood by inverting the price. At about 196 dollars the market pays roughly 11 times company-wide operating income, computed against an 8.1 percent cost of capital with 4 percent terminal growth over a five-year stage. That multiple is low enough that the price sits below what even a 5 percent annual decline in operating profit would justify. The price, in short, is underwriting contraction, not expansion.
The model families split sharply, which is the real information. The two growth-DCF methods land near 203 to 207 dollars, essentially at the price, because they capitalize the FCF base of about 2.4 billion dollars forward. The relative-valuation read at a 24x sector P/E lands near 156 dollars. The asset-based family, anchored on book value of about 126 dollars per share and a trailing return on equity of only 7.4 percent, lands between roughly 87 and 100 dollars. The earnings-power family is the widest spread of all: a zero-growth FCF capitalization lands near 132 dollars, while the normalized-EBIT Earnings Power Value collapses to about 11 dollars because the five-year average operating income it uses is depressed by recent restructuring and deal charges. No single family is decisive; the disagreement is the point.
Solvency is adequate rather than pristine. Net debt of about 5.4 billion dollars, interest coverage near 10 times, and net debt at under 2 times operating income mean the balance sheet can carry the portfolio through the pipeline readouts without forced action. The wider FV band runs from roughly 321 to 417 dollars on the through-the-cycle frame, well above the price, which is consistent with the read that the market is pricing a fade the recent results do not yet confirm.
Catalysts
The near-term calendar is dense with binary events. A PDUFA decision for the Leqembi IQLIK induction formulation was expected in May 2026 and is framed by analysts as an inflection point for the Alzheimer's franchise (MEXC analysis). Two pipeline readouts are expected mid-2026: BIIB080, a tau-targeting antisense oligonucleotide for Alzheimer's, and BIIB122, targeting Parkinson's (Motley Fool transcript). Either result moves the stock, because the price already discounts the legacy decline and the bull case rests on the pipeline replacing it.
The earnings cadence is the running scoreboard. Q1 2026 (reported April 29, 2026) delivered revenue of 2.5 billion dollars, up 2 percent, with GAAP diluted EPS of 2.15 dollars (up 31 percent) and non-GAAP EPS of 3.57 dollars (up 18 percent), beating expectations on cost discipline and Leqembi momentum (Yahoo Finance). The key watch item each quarter is whether Leqembi and Skyclarys growth keeps outpacing the MS erosion.
Analyst sentiment is split, which fits the valuation tension. Goldman Sachs raised its target to 250 dollars on the Q1 print, while HSBC anchors the bear case with a low target near 143 dollars, citing MS biosimilar competition and FY26 revenue potentially declining toward 9.4 billion dollars (MEXC analysis). That roughly 100-dollar gap between bull and bear targets is the clearest signal that the catalysts ahead, not the current numbers, will decide the name.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Biogen (consolidated) (reported)
- BMY (Bristol-Myers Squibb Company)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GILD (GILEAD SCIENCES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AMGN (Amgen Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- BMRN (BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- VRTX (VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC / MA)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- BNTX (BioNTech SE)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- JAZZ (Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ABBV (AbbVie Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.