BARRICK MINING CORP (B): what the price requires
At today's price, BARRICK MINING CORP (B) is priced for -2.7% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-13 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/B
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | B |
| Company | BARRICK MINING CORP |
| Current price | $35.80/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 5.7% |
| Operating margin today | 35.1% |
| Margin compression implied | -29.4pp |
| Implied growth | -2.7% |
| Multiple paid | 12x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 10, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.5% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~5.6pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.39σ |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 0.68x | 4 | justifies |
| Earnings | 1.13x | 3 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.45x | 4 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.87x | 2 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=13)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $60.21 | 0.59x | yes | FCF base $3.9B, growth 10% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.2%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $0.00 | — | no | Negative/zero FCF or EBITDA — equity value floored at $0 |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $64.54 | 0.55x | yes | P/E 14x (sector median), scenarios: 10.5x / 14.0x / 16.8x (bear / base = sector held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 8x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $45.31 | 0.79x | yes | BV/sh $21.04, ROE (TTM) 19.9%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $65.80 | 0.54x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $31.47 | 1.14x | yes | Rev $17.0B, growth 10% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.7x / 3.6x / 4.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 6x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $102.55 | 0.35x | yes | EPS $2.93, growth 35% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.24 (Undervalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | $63.72 | 0.56x | yes | BV $21.04 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 19.9% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $37.24 | 0.96x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $2.93 × BVPS $21.04) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $21.30 | 1.68x | yes | FCF $3868.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $94.54 | 0.38x | yes | EPS $2.93 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $14.90 | 2.40x | yes | Revenue $16.96B × sector P/S 1.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $109.88 | 0.33x | yes | EPS $2.93 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $31.68 | 1.13x | yes | EPS $2.93 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $2.1b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | -0.58x (net cash) |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | -0.47x (net cash) |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -1.0% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- Barrick is a gold and copper miner whose returns now run well above its cost of capital. Trailing return on equity is 19.9% against a cost of equity near 9%, and the company holds net cash of about $6.7 billion, an unusually strong balance sheet for a cyclical producer.
- The first quarter rode the gold-price rally. Q1 2026 revenue rose 67% to $5.22 billion, adjusted EPS reached $0.98 (up about 180% year over year), gold output of 719,000 ounces beat guidance, and the company generated $1.21 billion of attributable free cash flow at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,708 per ounce.
- At $43.18, the price sits below most of the grounded methods. The relative P/E method lands near $65, the asset-based excess-return methods near $45 to $66, and the perpetual-growth DCF near $58. The price embeds modestly declining operating income, which is a conservative assumption for a miner at a high gold price.
Bull Case
Barrick's competitive position rests on a portfolio of large, long-life ore bodies and a balance sheet that few miners can match, and the returns prove it. The company earns a 19.9% return on equity against a cost of equity near 9%, and it carries net cash of roughly $6.7 billion, a rare position for a cyclical producer that usually runs on debt. Scale, tier-one assets, and a fortress balance sheet are the structural advantages that let Barrick keep producing through commodity cycles when higher-cost rivals stall, and the current numbers show those advantages converting to cash.
The first quarter showed the operating leverage of a low-cost producer into a strong gold price. Q1 2026 revenue rose 67% to $5.22 billion, operating cash flow reached $2.55 billion, attributable free cash flow was $1.21 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.98 was up roughly 180% from a year earlier. Gold production of 719,000 ounces beat the guidance range of 640,000 to 680,000, while all-in sustaining costs of $1,708 per ounce came in better than plan. Because mining costs are relatively fixed per ounce, a higher gold price flows disproportionately to the bottom line, which is exactly what the 180% earnings jump reflects. Copper output of 49,000 tonnes adds a second metal with its own demand drivers.
Capital allocation underscores management's read on value. The board authorized a $3 billion share buyback, double the prior year's pace, explicitly because it sees exceptional value in its own shares ahead of a planned spinoff of its North American assets later this year. The company also resolved its long-running Mali dispute, securing a ten-year permit extension and restoring operational control of the Loulo-Gounkoto complex, removing a significant overhang. Management reiterated full-year guidance of 2.90 to 3.25 million ounces of gold and 190,000 to 220,000 tonnes of copper. Analysts rate the stock a Strong Buy with an average target near $52, well above the current price.
Bear Case
The variable that overwhelms everything else for Barrick is the price of gold, and to a lesser extent copper, neither of which the company controls. The 180% jump in adjusted EPS and the 67% revenue surge in Q1 2026 were driven overwhelmingly by a historic gold-price rally, not by volume growth: production was up modestly and beat guidance, but the earnings explosion is a commodity-price story. That cuts both ways. The same operating leverage that magnifies a rising gold price magnifies a falling one, and a miner whose recent results were powered by a price spike is exposed to a reversion that the current valuation, even at a discount to the methods, may not fully cushion. The price embeds a modestly declining operating income, which is the framework's way of recognizing that today's margins may not hold if the metal price softens.
Jurisdictional and regulatory risk is the second macro variable the price has to absorb. Barrick just paid a $437 million settlement to the Government of Mali to resolve a dispute that had suspended its Loulo-Gounkoto complex, a reminder that a meaningful share of the company's production sits in countries where governments can change the terms. The Mali resolution removed one overhang, but the episode shows the structural exposure: resource nationalism, permit renegotiations, and tax changes can strand or impair assets that the balance sheet values at full worth. The planned North American spinoff is partly a response to this, separating lower-risk assets, but execution risk on a large corporate restructuring is itself a near-term uncertainty.
The cost trajectory is the quieter concern beneath the strong quarter. All-in sustaining costs of $1,708 per ounce were better than plan, but mining is an industry of rising costs over time as ore grades decline and the easiest ounces are mined first. If gold prices normalize while costs keep climbing, the margin that produced $1.21 billion of free cash flow compresses quickly. The FCF-yield method, which capitalizes current free cash flow with no growth, lands near $21, far below the price, precisely because it refuses to assume the current cash flow persists. That is the bear anchor: strip out the price rally and the growth assumptions, and the cash the business throws off today supports a much lower value than the methods that extrapolate the cycle.
Valuation
Barrick is valued as a whole company on operating income, the standard frame for a profitable producer. The anchoring inputs are trailing revenue near $17.0 billion, an operating margin near 9.5%, free cash flow near $3.87 billion, a book value per share near $21.04, a return on equity near 19.9%, and net cash near $6.7 billion. The cost of capital is near 8.3%, and the dividend yield is below the threshold that activates the dividend-discount methods.
The methods land mostly above the price. The relative P/E method near 14 times lands at $65, the asset-based methods run from simple excess return near $45 to two-stage near $66, with residual income near $64 and the Graham number near $37. The perpetual-growth DCF lands near $58. The conservative anchor is the FCF-yield method near $21, which capitalizes current free cash flow with no growth and so refuses to extend the price-driven cash surge. The growth-adjusted methods such as PEG and the Ben Graham formula print near $95 to $110 because they extrapolate a very high recent EPS growth rate, which is a commodity-price artifact and should be discounted heavily. The price-to-sales method at $15 is a low outlier reflecting the thin operating margin relative to revenue.
Inverting the price clarifies the bet. At $43.18, the price implies operating income declines about 3% a year, a conservative assumption that explains why the stock trades below most of the grounded methods. The honest characterization is value-supported: asset-based, relative-multiple, and growth-DCF methods all reach or exceed the price, while only the no-growth cash-yield method sits below it. The grounded methods set the value above where it trades; the upside requires the gold price and the production base to hold, while the downside is the commodity reversion the conservative anchor and the negative implied growth already partly reflect.
Catalysts
The dominant near-term catalyst is the gold price itself, since Barrick's earnings move with it far more than with production volume. The Q2 2026 result, due in the summer, will show whether the cost discipline holds and whether the Loulo-Gounkoto ramp-up after the Mali settlement adds the 260,000 to 290,000 attributable ounces management expects this year. Reiterated full-year guidance of 2.90 to 3.25 million ounces of gold and 190,000 to 220,000 tonnes of copper sets the production bar.
The corporate actions are concrete, dated catalysts. The $3 billion share buyback is active and explicitly framed as management buying value ahead of the planned spinoff of North American Barrick, targeted for completion by year end. That spinoff is the largest structural event on the calendar: it would separate lower-risk North American assets and could re-rate the pieces, while carrying execution risk as a large restructuring. Progress on growth projects, including the Lumwana copper expansion and the 4 Mile project, adds longer-term volume optionality.
Analyst sentiment is strongly positive. The consensus rating is a Strong Buy across the covering analysts, with an average twelve-month target near $52 against a current price near $43. The principal swing factors behind that target are the path of gold and copper prices, the smooth execution of the North American spinoff, and continued stability in the jurisdictions where Barrick operates after the Mali resolution.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Core business (reported)
- NEM (NEWMONT CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AEM (AGNICO EAGLE MINES LIMITED)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GFI (Gold Fields Limited)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- HMY (HARMONY GOLD MINING COMPANY LIMITED)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- FCX (Freeport-McMoRan Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SCCO (SOUTHERN COPPER CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.