Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH): what the price requires
At today's price, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH) is priced for +17.2% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/AUPH
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | AUPH |
| Company | Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. |
| Current price | $16.10/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 11.3% |
| Operating margin today | 41.7% |
| Margin compression implied | -30.4pp |
| Implied growth | 17.2% |
| Multiple paid | 17x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 5, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 10.2% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~6.5pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.42σ |
| cohort percentile (of 113 peers) | 33 |
| sustained it ~5 years at this level | 45% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 0.69x | 5 | justifies |
| Earnings | 0.97x | 4 | justifies |
| Relative | 0.62x | 5 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.65x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=17)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $44.28 | 0.36x | yes | FCF base $0.2B, growth 21% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.0%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $24.79 | 0.65x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 15.4x / 17.4x / 19.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $29.98 | 0.54x | yes | P/E 17.37x (blended: static sector reference 24x + trailing (TTM) 7x), scenarios: 14.2x / 17.4x / 20.6x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 16x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $23.42 | 0.69x | yes | BV/sh $4.12, ROE (TTM) 52.5%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $69.81 | 0.23x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $18.59 | 0.87x | yes | Rev $0.3B, growth 21% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 6.1x / 7.4x / 8.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $26.04 | 0.62x | yes | EPS $2.17, growth 2% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=3.71 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | $38.07 | 0.42x | yes | BV $4.12 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 52.5% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $14.19 | 1.13x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $2.17 × BVPS $4.12) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $14.79 | 1.09x | yes | EBITDA $0.13B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $12.87 | 1.25x | yes | FCF $166.9M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $11.38 | 1.41x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.15B (FCF $0.17B − SBC $0.02B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $70.02 | 0.23x | yes | EPS $2.17 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $2.48 | 6.49x | yes | BV $4.12 × (ROIC 5.4% / WACC 9.0%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $8.67 | 1.86x | yes | Revenue $0.30B × sector P/S 4.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $81.38 | 0.20x | yes | EPS $2.17 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $23.46 | 0.69x | yes | EPS $2.17 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $24.0m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 0.25x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 0.19x |
| Interest coverage | 29.0x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -0.7% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- Aurinia is a profitable, single-drug biotech: it sells LUPKYNIS for lupus nephritis, a serious kidney complication of lupus, and that one product generated $73.6 million of net sales in the first quarter of 2026, up 23%, with the company now solidly profitable.
- The defining risk is concentration, which the 10-K states plainly: the company is "substantially dependent on our ability to successfully commercialize LUPKYNIS, our sole approved product," so a slowdown in that one drug, or eventual patent and competitive pressure, hits the entire business.
- Watch the revenue ramp and the capital return: management reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $315 million to $325 million, holds roughly $378.8 million in cash and investments, and is buying back stock aggressively.
Bull Case
Aurinia has crossed a stage that most single-product biotechs never reach: it is genuinely profitable on a growing, approved drug, and it is sitting on a large cash pile while buying back its own stock. That changes how the company should be read. This is not a cash-burning hopeful waiting on a trial; it is a commercial business whose lone product, LUPKYNIS, is a treatment for lupus nephritis, a kidney complication of lupus that, the 10-K notes, physicians otherwise treat with "an off-label combination of MMF and corticosteroids alone or in combination with first generation CNIs such as tacrolimus." LUPKYNIS is an FDA-approved, on-label option in a disease where the alternatives are off-label cocktails, and that is a defensible commercial position. First-quarter net product sales grew 23% to $73.6 million, and total revenue, including a growing royalty from its partner, rose 24%.
The financials underneath are the unusual part for a biotech this size. Net income grew 48% to $34.4 million in the quarter, the company runs a high return on equity, and it generates real free cash flow rather than consuming it. That profitability funds both continued commercial investment and a substantial return of capital: Aurinia repurchased 2.5 million shares for $36.2 million in the quarter, bringing cumulative buybacks since early 2024 to 23.1 million shares for $211 million, against a cash and investment balance of $378.8 million. A biotech retiring this much stock while holding this much cash is managing itself like a cash-generative business, which is exactly what creates per-share value when the share count shrinks against rising earnings.
The pipeline adds an option on top of a self-funding base. Aurinia is developing AUR200, a candidate targeting dual immune proteins in autoimmune disease, and reported positive results from an early Phase 1 study with good tolerability. That is years from contributing revenue, but it offers a path to diversify beyond the single-product dependence that defines the risk profile, and crucially it is being funded out of LUPKYNIS profits rather than dilutive raises. The valuation makes the bull case sharper still: most of the standard valuation methods land above today's $16.49 (June 27, 2026), meaning this is a value-supported name, not a stock priced for heroic growth. The bull case is a profitable, cash-rich, single-drug franchise trading below where the methods say it is worth, returning capital, with a pipeline option for free.
Bear Case
Everything good about Aurinia rests on one drug, and that is the structural truth a holder cannot escape. The 10-K states it without softening: the company is "substantially dependent on our ability to successfully commercialize LUPKYNIS, our sole approved product." One drug means one set of risks with no diversification. If LUPKYNIS growth slows as the addressable lupus-nephritis population gets penetrated, if a competitor reaches the market, or if the off-label MMF-and-steroid regimens that physicians already use prove stubbornly persistent for cost reasons, there is no second product to take up the slack. A single-product company is only as durable as that product's growth runway and patent life, and both have finite horizons.
The pricing and reimbursement environment is the external variable with the most leverage over that one drug. Aurinia sells a specialty medicine whose revenue depends on what payers will reimburse, and the 10-K notes participation in "the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program, administered by CMS, and other federal and state government pricing programs." Drug pricing is under persistent political and regulatory pressure in the U.S., and a single-product specialty franchise has no portfolio to absorb a pricing or coverage setback. Layer on the eventual patent cliff that every branded drug faces, and the long-term question is not whether LUPKYNIS revenue plateaus and declines, but when, and whether AUR200 or another asset is ready to replace it by then.
The pipeline that is supposed to answer that question is early and unproven. AUR200 has cleared only a Phase 1 study; it is years and several binary readouts away from approval, and most drugs at that stage fail. Relying on it to diversify away the single-product risk is a hope, not a plan that can be underwritten today. The valuation, while it looks cheap on the methods, reflects exactly this tension: the market is applying a low multiple precisely because it doubts the durability of a single-drug earnings stream. The price embeds operating growth around 17% a year for five years, which the company is currently delivering, but history says fewer than half of fast-growers sustain that pace even five years, and a single-product biotech is more exposed than most to a growth cliff. The bear case is that the cheapness is a fair discount for concentration and finite patent life, not a mispricing, and that the day LUPKYNIS growth stalls, the value-supported story turns into a melting single-asset story.
Valuation
Aurinia is the rare biotech that screens as a value stock, and the methods bear that out: most of them land above today's $16.49. At the current price the company trades at roughly 17 times company-wide operating income, which embeds operating-profit growth around 17.6% a year for five years, a pace it has recently delivered. The framework reads that assumption as broadly within range, and unusually for a biotech, the price is supported by the asset-based, earnings-power, relative-multiple, and growth methods together. This is a value-and-asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet, which is the opposite of how the market usually prices a single-product drug company.
The families of method agree to a degree that is itself informative. The relative-multiple methods, applying a sector price-to-earnings against the company's profitable trailing earnings, land above the price. The asset-based methods, anchored on book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, land well above the price, reflecting a return on equity north of 50%. The growth methods reach or exceed the price. When even the conservative lenses sit above the current price, the market is not paying a premium for Aurinia; it is applying a discount. The reason for that discount is not hidden, it is the single-product concentration and the finite patent and competitive horizon, which the methods, anchored on current profitability, do not fully capture. So the honest read is that the stock is cheap on demonstrated earnings and fairly priced once you weight the durability risk that the methods understate.
Solvency is a clear strength and removes the financing risk that hangs over most of the sector. Aurinia holds roughly $378.8 million in cash and investments against minimal debt, generates positive free cash flow, and funds both its pipeline and its buyback out of operating profit rather than raising capital. The share count is shrinking, which lifts per-share value as earnings grow. The downside risk in this name is not the balance sheet; it is the durability of LUPKYNIS revenue and the long-dated patent question. The buyer at today's price is paying below what the methods say the current earnings are worth, getting a large cash balance and an active buyback, and accepting single-product concentration as the trade. Published analyst targets cluster near the current price, in the mid-to-high teens, reflecting a market that respects the profitability while discounting the single-asset dependence.
Catalysts
The first quarter of 2026 confirmed the profitable-growth story. Total revenue rose 24% to $77.7 million, with LUPKYNIS net product sales up 23% to $73.6 million and royalty revenue from partner Otsuka up 64% to $4.1 million, while net income grew 48% to $34.4 million. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of $315 million to $325 million in total revenue and $305 million to $315 million in LUPKYNIS net sales, so the coming quarters are a direct test of whether the drug's growth holds at the guided pace. The combination of rising sales, expanding profitability, and a reaffirmed outlook is the core catalyst for a single-product commercial biotech.
Two developments frame the longer arc. On the pipeline, Aurinia reported positive Phase 1 results for AUR200, its dual-immune-protein candidate, the first step toward diversifying beyond LUPKYNIS, though any revenue contribution is years away. On capital return, the company repurchased 2.5 million shares for $36.2 million in the quarter, bringing cumulative buybacks since early 2024 to 23.1 million shares for $211 million, funded from its roughly $378.8 million cash and investment balance. Analyst sentiment is constructive but measured, with ratings split between buy and hold and price targets clustered near the current level, reflecting confidence in the profitability alongside caution about single-product concentration. The next earnings report, the LUPKYNIS sales trajectory against guidance, and any further AUR200 data are the events that will move the stock.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (consolidated) (reported)
- INVA (INNOVIVA, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …product candidate. We received an upfront payment of $ 1.6 million, of which we recognized $ 0.1 million as grant revenue included in "License and other revenue" in our consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025. The remaining balance of the upfront payment is recorded as deferred revenue…
- FY2025 10-K: …intra-abdominal infections in adults; • ZEVTERA ® (ceftobiprole), an advanced-generation cephalosporin antibiotic for the treatment of staphylococcus aureus bacteremia , including those with right-sided endocarditis, acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections, and community-acquired bacterial pneumonia,…
- ANIP (ANI PHARMACEUTICALS, INC)
- FY2025 10-K: …LLC and ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (2) Incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.2 to ANI's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2016 (File No. 001-31812) 10.15* Ame nded and Re stated ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 2016 Employee Stock Purchase Plan Incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.1 to…
- FY2025 10-K: …Windsor, New Jersey, which collectively are capable of producing oral solid dose products, as well as semi-solids, liquids and topicals, controlled substances, and potent products that must be manufactured in a fully-contained environment. The Company ceased operations at another manufacturing facility in Oakville,…
- KNSA (Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc)
- FY2025 10-K: 1 107,954 122,715 Cash and cash equivalents at end of period $ 165,596 $ 183,581 $ 107,954 Supplemental information: Cash paid for income taxes, net $ 3,012 $ 2,003 $ 5,605 Supplemental disclosure of non-cash investing and financing…
- FY2025 10-K: …All schedules have been omitted because they are not required or because the required information is given in the Consolidated Financial Statements or Notes thereto set forth below beginning on page F-1. (a)(3) Exhibits. See Exhibit Index. 113 Table of Contents EXHIBIT INDEX Incorporated by Reference…
- HRMY (HARMONY BIOSCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: 59,469,648 Weighted average number of shares of common stock - diluted 58,544,570 57,869,915 60,372,397 (1) Includes $ 15,000 in related party expenses for the year ended December 31, 2025, and no related party expenses for the years ended December 31, 2024, and 2023. The accompanying notes are an integral…
- FY2025 10-K: …milestones and up to $ 240,000 upon achievement of sales-based milestones, as well as royalty rates in the mid-teens on any sales of product using the Licensed Compound in the Licensed Territories. ConSynance Agreement In August 2021, the Company entered into an asset purchase agreement with ConSynance Therapeutics,…
- SUPN (SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …revenue from Biogen's sales of ZURZUVAE to customers in the U.S., the Company utilizes certain information from Biogen, including revenue from the sale of the product and associated reserves on revenue. The following table summarizes the Company's proportionate share of the activity under the Biogen Collaboration…
- FY2025 10-K: S WorldMeds Partners, LLC and Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (incorporated by reference to Exhibit 2.1 to the Form 10-Q filed on August 17, 2020, File No. 001-35518). 2.3 #* Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of October 10, 2021, by and among Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Supernus Reef, Inc. and Adamas…
- CPRX (CATALYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …financial statements. • Results of Operations . This section provides an analysis of our results of operations for the three fiscal years presented in the accompanying consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income. • Liquidity and Capital Resources . This section provides an analysis of our cash…
- FY2025 10-K: …securities. See Note 15 (Stockholders' Equity). Capital Resources Based on the Company's current financial condition, including its profitability, cash flows generated from operations and forecasts of available cash, the Company believes it has sufficient funds to support operations for at least the next 12 months.…
- KRYS (Krystal Biotech, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …levels of inventory in the distribution channel that will be prescribed to qualified patients and records the rebates as a reduction of revenue on the consolidated statements of operations and accrued rebates and other long-term liabilities on the consolidated balance sheets. • Commercial Rebates: The Company…
- FY2025 10-K: …(the Company) as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, the related consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income, stockholders' equity, and cash flows for each of the years in the three-year period ended December 31, 2025, and the related notes (collectively, the consolidated financial statements). In our…
- HALO (HALOZYME THERAPEUTICS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …commercial activities. We sell XYOSTED and Hylenex recombinant in the U.S. to wholesale pharmaceutical distributors, who sell Hylenex to hospitals and XYOSTED to other end-user customers. We engage Integrated Commercialization Solutions, a division of AmerisourceBergen Specialty Group, a subsidiary of…
- FY2025 10-K: …partnered products, including those under development. Our proprietary and partnered products have numerous competitors in the U.S. and abroad including, among others, major pharmaceutical and specialized biotechnology firms, universities and other research institutions that have developed competing products. Many of…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
Q1 FY2026 results, May 2026 · company disclosures, 2026 · analyst consensus, public.com / TipRanks, 2026 · analyst consensus, Benzinga / public.com, 2026