ATMOS ENERGY CORP (ATO): what the price requires
At today's price, ATMOS ENERGY CORP (ATO) is priced for +2.7% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/ATO
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | ATO |
| Company | ATMOS ENERGY CORP |
| Current price | $179.70/sh |
| Composition | Distribution 94% / Pipeline and Storage 6% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Implied growth | 2.7% |
| Multiple paid | 25x operating income |
Solve inputs: computed at a 6.6% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~9.5pp.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~24.3%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -1.00σ |
| cohort percentile (of 70 peers) | 74 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 2.10x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 2.05x | 3 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.30x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.06x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=16)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $173.44 | 1.04x | yes | FCF base $1.2B, growth 12% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 7.1%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $170.17 | 1.06x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 13.8x / 15.8x / 17.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $158.74 | 1.13x | yes | P/E 20x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 16.5x / 20.0x / 23.5x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 13x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $86.72 | 2.07x | yes | BV/sh $88.84, ROE (TTM) 9.0%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $85.69 | 2.10x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $122.70 | 1.46x | yes | Rev $4.9B, growth 12% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 5.1x / 6.2x / 7.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $117.95 | 1.52x | yes | EPS $8.11, growth 15% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=1.54 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $21.55 | 8.34x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $1.28B × (1−21%) / WACC 7.1% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $85.52 | 2.10x | yes | BV $88.84 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 9.0% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 5.9%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $127.32 | 1.41x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $8.11 × BVPS $88.84) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $138.48 | 1.30x | yes | EBITDA $2.51B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $255.48 | 0.70x | yes | EPS $8.11 × (8.5 + 2×14.5%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $31.10 | 5.78x | yes | BV $88.84 × (ROIC 2.5% / WACC 7.1%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $72.72 | 2.47x | yes | Revenue $4.88B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $176.93 | 1.02x | yes | EPS $8.11 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 14.5% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 21.8x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $87.68 | 2.05x | yes | EPS $8.11 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $9.4b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 7.62x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 6.05x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 5.2% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- Atmos Energy is the largest pure-play natural-gas distribution utility in the country, earning a regulated return on a growing base of pipes and infrastructure, mostly in Texas, where it is spending heavily to replace aging steel and cast-iron mains.
- The defining feature is the reinvestment engine: management plans roughly $26 billion of capital over five years, over 85% of it on safety and reliability, targeting 13% to 15% annual rate-base growth, funded with a mix of debt and steadily issued equity that grows the share count about 5% a year.
- Watch the regulatory recovery and the dividend: the company raised fiscal 2026 earnings guidance to $8.40 to $8.50 per share and lifted the dividend nearly 15%, so the next prints test whether rate recovery keeps pace with the capital spending.
Bull Case
The capital-allocation picture is the entire bull case for Atmos, and it is unusually clean. A regulated gas utility earns an allowed return on the money it invests in its system, so growth comes from spending capital that regulators let it recover in rates. Atmos has the rare combination of a large, identifiable need to spend and a constructive place to spend it. The company plans roughly $26 billion of capital over the next five years, with more than 85% directed at safety and reliability, principally replacing the older steel and cast-iron pipe that the 10-K flags as subject to "increased federal, state, and local regulation of the safety of our operations." That spending is not discretionary growth chasing a fad; it is mandated infrastructure renewal, which is the most defensible kind of utility investment because regulators are predisposed to allow its recovery.
The scale of that program drives the earnings algorithm. Management targets 13% to 15% annual rate-base growth, which translates into 6% to 8% earnings-per-share growth over time, and the company has been delivering at the high end: fiscal 2026 guidance was raised to $8.40 to $8.50 per share, up from $7.46 the prior year. Sitting overwhelmingly in Texas matters here, because Texas is one of the more constructive regulatory environments and one of the faster-growing parts of the country, with industrial and data-center demand adding gas load. Natural gas keeps its place in the energy mix in part on cost: the 10-K notes that against alternative fuels, "natural gas historically has maintained its price advantage in the residential, commercial" and industrial markets.
For an income-oriented holder, the dividend is the proof of the model working. Atmos raised its dividend nearly 15% to an indicated $4.00 a share for fiscal 2026, extending a long record of increases funded by the growing, recovered earnings base. The combination, a multi-year mandated capital program, a constructive regulatory home, mid-teens rate-base growth, and a steadily rising dividend, is exactly what a utility investor wants: visible, low-drama compounding. The interest coverage near 12 times shows the heavy debt load is comfortably carried out of regulated cash flow. The bull case is that Atmos is one of the highest-quality ways to own the gas-distribution buildout, and the recent guidance raise says the engine is running ahead of plan.
Bear Case
The concern with Atmos is hiding in plain sight in how it funds its growth. A utility that spends $26 billion over five years cannot pay for that out of earnings; it raises the money, and Atmos raises a meaningful share of it by issuing new stock. The share count has been growing about 5% a year, which means existing holders are continuously diluted to fund the capital program. That is not inherently bad, regulated growth funded with equity can still create value if the allowed return exceeds the cost of that equity, but it makes the per-share growth depend on a steady stream of dilutive issuance going right, and it caps how much of the rate-base growth actually reaches each share. The headline 13% to 15% rate-base growth becomes 6% to 8% per-share earnings growth precisely because the share count is climbing underneath it.
The model rests on regulators continuing to allow timely recovery, and that is never guaranteed. The 10-K's own disclosures show the two-way nature of rate proceedings, including refunds to customers spread over long periods, with one example returning $47.7 million "to customers on a provisional basis over 15 - 69 years until our regulators establish the final refund periods." Regulatory lag, the gap between spending capital and earning a return on it, can compress earnings if rate cases run slow or commissions get less constructive, and a utility this dependent on a single state carries concentration risk if Texas regulation or politics shift. Safety is the other edge of the sword: the same aging-pipe replacement that drives growth also creates liability, and a serious safety incident would bring cost, scrutiny, and potential penalties.
The price already pays a premium for all of this. Against the valuation methods, the asset-value and earnings-power lenses land well below today's $170.19 (June 27, 2026), and the multiple sits at the very top of the utility peer distribution, well beyond the upper quartile. Inverted, the price pays about 24 times company-wide operating income and only requires low-single-digit operating growth to justify, which the company comfortably clears, so this is not an aggressive growth bet. But paying the top multiple in the peer group for a utility means the premium itself is the risk: utility valuations are sensitive to interest rates, and a higher-for-longer rate environment makes a bond-proxy like Atmos less attractive relative to actual bonds, which can compress the multiple even as the business performs. The bear case is not that the company stumbles operationally; it is that you are paying the richest price in the sector for steady, equity-funded, regulated growth, and the premium has more room to fall than to expand.
Valuation
The price reflects quality, and the methods confirm Atmos is the expensive end of a steady sector. At $170.19, the stock trades at roughly 24 times company-wide operating income, a multiple that sits at the very top of the utility peer distribution, well beyond the upper quartile. The reassuring part is that the price does not require much growth to justify on its own terms: inverted, it embeds only about 1.4% annual operating growth over five years, which a utility growing its rate base in the mid-teens clears easily. So the framework reads the priced-in assumption as broadly within range. The tension is not that the bet is unrealistic; it is that the market is paying the sector's highest multiple for it.
The families of method split along the usual utility lines. The asset-value methods, anchored on a book value near $88.84 a share, land below the price, because Atmos earns a regulated return on equity around 9% that is close to its cost of equity, so book-value-plus-excess-return methods do not generate much premium. The earnings-power methods, capitalizing current operating profit with no growth, land lower still, as they always will for a capital-intensive utility whose value is in future rate-base growth rather than static earnings. The relative-multiple methods, applying a sector price-to-earnings near 20 times, land just below the price, and the growth methods reach it. That pattern, peer-multiple and growth methods justifying the price while the static asset and earnings lenses say expensive, is the signature of a utility valued for its reinvestment runway rather than its current earnings. The premium is the durability of the rate-base growth, and the price is paying near the top of the range for it.
Solvency is high but normal for the model, and it should be read in utility terms rather than as fragility. Atmos carries roughly $9.6 billion of gross debt, which looks large but is the expected shape for a company whose entire purpose is to finance and earn on infrastructure; interest coverage near 12 times shows the regulated cash flow services it comfortably. The capital-return capacity, the dividend that just rose nearly 15%, is funded out of the growing earnings base, not borrowed. The real watch item is not coverage but the equity issuance that funds the capital plan: the roughly 5%-a-year share growth is the mechanism by which mid-teens rate-base growth becomes mid-single-digit per-share growth. The buyer at today's price is paying a premium multiple for visible, regulated compounding, with interest-rate sensitivity and the dilution math as the main risks to the premium holding. Published analyst targets bracket the current price, with several in the high $170s to low $190s and a couple above $200, reflecting a market that respects the quality while debating whether the top-of-sector multiple is fully earned.
Catalysts
The fiscal 2026 second quarter brought a guidance raise, the cleanest catalyst for a utility. Atmos lifted its full-year earnings guidance to $8.40 to $8.50 per diluted share, up from a prior $8.15 to $8.35 and from $7.46 the year before, and reaffirmed the capital and rate-base growth plan behind it. The forward framework is the story: roughly $4.2 billion of capital expenditure in fiscal 2026 within a five-year plan near $26 billion, more than 85% on safety and reliability, supporting 13% to 15% annual rate-base growth and a stated 6% to 8% long-term earnings-per-share growth target. Each rate proceeding and capital update is a step in converting that spending into recovered earnings, and the coming quarters test whether recovery keeps pace with the spend.
Two developments frame the demand and income case. On demand, the growth of natural-gas-fired power for AI data centers is adding load and policy momentum behind gas infrastructure, particularly in Texas where Atmos is concentrated, a tailwind to long-run volumes and system investment. On income, the board raised the dividend nearly 15% to an indicated $4.00 a share for fiscal 2026, extending a long record of increases. Analyst sentiment is constructive but measured, clustering ratings around hold-to-buy with price targets that bracket the current price, several firms having raised targets into the high $170s, low $190s, and above $200 even while keeping neutral ratings, a split that reflects respect for the execution alongside caution about the premium multiple. The next earnings report, and the rate-case and capital updates inside it, are the events that confirm the recovery cadence the price depends on.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Distribution (reported)
- SWX (Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SR (Spire Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NJR (NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NFG (NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CPK (CHESAPEAKE UTILITIES CORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SRE (SEMPRA)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- OKE (ONEOK INC /NEW/)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- WMB (WILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Pipeline and Storage (reported)
- WMB (WILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- OKE (ONEOK INC /NEW/)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- KMI (KINDER MORGAN, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- TRGP (TARGA RESOURCES CORP.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ET (ENERGY TRANSFER LP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- EPD (ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- PAA (PLAINS ALL AMERICAN PIPELINE LP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
FY2026 guidance, 2026 · Q2 FY2026 results, May 2026 · analyst consensus, MarketBeat / TipRanks, 2026 · analyst actions, MarketBeat / public.com, 2026