ASTRANA HEALTH, INC. (ASTH): what the price assumes

Generated: 2026-07-29 · Exported: 2026-08-01 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/ASTH

Headline

Field	Value
Ticker	ASTH
Company	ASTRANA HEALTH, INC.
Sector / Industry	Industrials
Current price	$36.92/sh
Composition	Commercial 9% / Medicare 60% / Medicaid 27% / Other third parties 4%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Field	Value
Inversion basis	whole-company
Operating margin (value-band context)	3.0%
Operating margin (mid-cycle)	9.1%
Margin compression (value-band)	-6.1pp
Trailing margin (depressed year)	2.5%
Multiple paid	8x mid-cycle operating income

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 5: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

The price sits below what even a 5%/yr operating-profit decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.

Solve inputs: computed at a 7.9% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Reference	Value
vs own history	+0.30σ
implied end-window share	0%

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Family	Median price/FV	Models	Reads
Asset	10.01x	5	expensive
Earnings	3.17x	5	expensive
Relative	1.73x	5	expensive
Growth	1.01x	2	expensive

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.4%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=17)

Model	Family	FV	Price/FV	Applicable	Methodology
DCF Perpetual Growth	Growth	—	—	no	—
DCF Exit Multiple	Growth	$42.53	0.87x	yes	Exit EV/EBITDA: 22.9x / 25.9x / 28.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr
Relative Valuation	Relative	$20.27	1.82x	yes	P/E 33.01x (blended: static sector reference 18x + trailing (TTM) 68x), scenarios: 26.4x / 33.0x / 39.6x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 16.18x
Simple DDM	Growth	—	—	no	—
Two-Stage DDM	Growth	—	—	no	—
Simple Excess Return	Asset	$5.87	6.29x	yes	BV/sh $14.36, ROE (TTM) 3.8%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess Return	Asset	$3.69	10.01x	yes	5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market Cap	Growth	$32.29	1.14x	yes	Rev $3.5B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 0.5x / 0.6x / 0.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair Value	Relative	$21.35	1.73x	yes	EPS $0.61, growth 35% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=1.94 (Overvalued)
Margin Trajectory	Growth	—	—	no	—
Earnings Power Value	Earnings	$3.99	9.25x	yes	Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.09B × (1−33%) / WACC 6.4% → EPV (no growth)
Residual Income	Asset	$2.79	13.23x	yes	BV $14.36 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 3.8% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 2.5%/yr
Graham Number	Asset	$14.04	2.63x	yes	√(22.5 × EPS $0.61 × BVPS $14.36) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA Relative	Relative	$11.43	3.23x	yes	EBITDA $0.10B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x
FCF Yield	Earnings	$19.54	1.89x	yes	FCF $155.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF Yield	Earnings	$11.65	3.17x	yes	SBC-adj FCF $0.11B (FCF $0.15B − SBC $0.04B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham Formula	Earnings	$19.68	1.88x	yes	EPS $0.61 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/B	Asset	$3.06	12.07x	yes	BV $14.36 × (ROIC 1.4% / WACC 6.4%)
P/Sales Sector	Relative	$158.23	0.23x	yes	Revenue $3.53B × sector P/S 2.5x
PEG Fair Value	Relative	$22.88	1.61x	yes	EPS $0.61 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x
Earnings Yield	Earnings	$6.59	5.60x	yes	EPS $0.61 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations Multiple	Relative	—	—	no	—
Clinical Phase NPV	Growth	—	—	no	—
Merton	Asset	—	—	no	—
V5 Mechanical	—	—	—	no	—

Solvency

Field	Value
Net debt	$549.0m
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)	2.56x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)	1.71x
Interest coverage	5.5x
Share count CAGR (dilution)	1.6%
Burning cash	no

Leverage and coverage are computed on normalized mid-cycle operating income (mid-cycle margin 9.1%); the trailing year was depressed.

Bullet Takeaways

• Sixty percent of revenue comes from Medicare and another 27% from Medicaid, so the top line is set by two government payers while the costs are set by how sick the patients turn out to be.

• The 2025 accounts show what buying scale looks like before it works: capitation revenue reached $2,840.2 million against $1,763.2 million in 2024, while the Care Delivery segment added $114.1 million of revenue and lost $2.1 million of segment operating income.

• The thing to watch is conversion rather than expansion, with management reaffirming a full-year 2026 revenue range of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion after a March quarter in which the top line rose 56%.

Bull Case

This is not a mature business, and reading its trailing accounts as though it were produces nonsense. The March quarter of 2026 saw revenue rise 56% against the same quarter a year earlier. A company expanding at that rate has, by construction, an income statement dominated by operations it has owned for a matter of months. The trailing operating margin near 2.8% is a photograph of a machine taken mid-assembly, and the useful question is what it earns once assembled, not what it earned during.

The economics themselves are simple enough to state in a sentence. A health plan pays a fixed sum each month for each enrolled patient, and Astrana keeps whatever it does not spend on that patient's care. The 10-K lists "• Capitation revenue; • Risk pool settlements and incentives; • Management fee income; • FFS revenue" as the streams, and capitation is now the dominant one: it reached $2,840.2 million in 2025 against $1,763.2 million in 2024, an increase of $1,077.1 million. Scale matters in that arrangement more than in almost any other business model, because a larger pool of patients makes the average cost per patient more predictable, and predictability is the whole product.

That is the logic behind the year's big transaction. Astrana "completed the previously announced Prospect acquisition for a purchase price of $674.9 million. Prospect is a physician-centric risk-bearing healthcare company that operates an integrated healthcare delivery platform enabling a network of over 11,000 providers". Eleven thousand providers is not a bolt-on. It is a step change in the number of lives across which a bad flu season gets averaged.

The demographic backdrop does the rest of the work without anyone having to be clever. The 10-K cites federal projections that "Medicare spending is expected to have the fastest growth (7.9% per year for 2024-2033), primarily due to projected enrollment growth." Astrana's revenue is 60% Medicare. It does not need to win share to expand; it needs only to keep the patients it has as they age into the program that is expanding fastest.

Compare the margin against the companies that take the same risk and the picture is less alarming than the raw number suggests. MOH converts 1.0% of its revenue to operating profit and ALHC 0.8%; PRVA, the closest structural analog, manages 1.6%; CNC is negative. Astrana's trailing conversion, earned in what was plainly a transition year, already sits above most of that group. Measured through the cycle rather than on the last twelve months, this business has turned closer to 9.1% of revenue into operating profit, and the distance between the two readings is what the bull case asks you to believe will close.

Cash has started to follow. Free cash flow reached $64.1 million in the March quarter of 2026, and management reaffirmed a full-year range of $105 million to $132.5 million. That is the sequence a roll-up needs: revenue first, then cash, then margin.

Bear Case

Strip away the vocabulary and Astrana takes insurance risk. A health plan hands over a fixed amount each month for each patient, and whatever that patient's care actually costs lands on Astrana. That is the trade an insurer makes, described in the language of care delivery. The company's own filing does not dress it up: Prospect, the largest acquisition in its history, is "a physician-centric risk-bearing healthcare company". Risk-bearing is the operative word, and it is why the market declines to pay a services multiple for these earnings.

The disagreement among the standard measures is unusually wide as a result. The price sits about 79% above where the peer-multiple methods land, and several times above the earnings-power methods, both of which start from what the company actually earned. Only the forward cash-flow approaches reach today's quote. That is not a mild dispute about the pace of improvement. It is the difference between valuing what a business earns and valuing what it might.

The cleanest test of whether the acquisitions are working is the Care Delivery segment, and it did not pass. Revenue there rose $114.1 million during 2025, of which $105.1 million came from consolidating Prospect, while the segment's operating income fell $2.1 million. Astrana bought revenue. Whether it bought profit is still an open question, and the answer arrives in segment results rather than in press releases.

Both payers that matter set their own prices, and they have been rewriting the rules while Astrana was buying. The filing notes that the shared-savings benchmark was adjusted in 2024 to "address prior performance, incorporate a prospective administrative growth factor, and to attempt to reduce the cap on negative regional adjustments", changes that "affect how savings and losses are calculated under the model and may affect our ability to generate revenue". Under the ACO REACH Global Risk track the company is "responsible for 100% of shared savings or losses up to 25% of the total". Symmetrical, in other words. Worth saying plainly in an industry that tends to market only one half of that sentence.

The Prospect purchase was financed with a delayed-draw term loan of 745.0 million dollars, and the consequence sits on the balance sheet. Net borrowings run about 1.9 times operating profit measured through the cycle, with interest covered roughly six times on the same basis. Both figures are comfortable against normalized earnings and noticeably less so against the trailing year the company actually just reported. Meanwhile the share count has risen about 1.6% a year across the last four years, so dilution has been running alongside the borrowing rather than instead of it.

One structural feature deserves more attention than it gets. State law bars corporations from owning medical practices, so Astrana holds its physician entities through nominees: the 10-K explains that the company "has designated certain key personnel as the nominee shareholder of professional corporations that hold controlling and non-controlling ownership interests in several medical corporations." This is standard across the industry and entirely lawful. It also means the consolidated accounts rest on contractual control rather than on ownership, which is a thinner thing to hold than the balance sheet makes it look.

Valuation

Everything here turns on which earnings figure you decide to use. On the profit reported over the last twelve months, roughly 2.8% of revenue, the shares look expensive on most conventional measures. On the profit the business has converted through the cycle, closer to 9.1% of revenue, today's price capitalizes operating income at about ten times, which is below what even a company shrinking its operating profit by five percent every year would warrant. Same company, same quote, opposite verdicts.

Read the price forward and it asks for remarkably little. It needs an operating margin of roughly 3%, against the 2.8% the trailing twelve months delivered. It is not asking for the through-cycle figure at all. When the requirement embedded in a price amounts to the status quo, the question stops being whether the company can improve and becomes whether it can avoid deteriorating.

The methods split along exactly that seam. The price sits about 79% above where the peer-multiple methods land, and several times above the earnings-power methods, both of which work from trailing profit. The forward cash-flow methods land essentially on today's quote. That spread is not really a disagreement about the future. It is the entire argument over whether the last twelve months were representative of anything.

Set against the companies carrying the same kind of risk, the trailing margin is less of an outlier than it appears. MOH converts 1.0% of $45.1 billion of revenue into operating profit, and ALHC 0.8% of $4.3 billion. PRVA, the nearest analog by business model, manages 1.6%. UNH, the most profitable of that group, reaches 4.2%. Astrana's 2.8%, earned in a year of heavy integration, sits in the upper half of that distribution.

The inputs behind those margins are worth naming, because capitation is what makes them move. Capitation revenue reached $2,840.2 million in 2025 against $1,763.2 million in 2024, and the Prospect transaction closed "for a purchase price of $674.9 million", bringing "a network of over 11,000 providers". Capitation is fixed money against variable cost. It now dominates the revenue mix, which means the margin is decided less by pricing than by medical utilization, and utilization is not something any operator forecasts with confidence.

Borrowings set the clock on how long the answer is allowed to stay ambiguous. Term loans and the revolver together run to a little over one billion dollars, against liquid assets of 479.6 million dollars, leaving net borrowings of 549.0 million dollars, or about 1.9 times operating profit measured through the cycle. Interest is covered around six times on that basis and materially less on trailing earnings. The facilities mature on February 26, 2030. That is the outside date by which the through-cycle margin has to turn up in the trailing one.

Catalysts

The March quarter was the first clean look at the enlarged company. Revenue reached $965.1 million, 56% higher than the same quarter a year earlier, and free cash flow came in at $64.1 million against a far smaller figure the year before. For a business that spent 2025 absorbing an acquisition, cash conversion was the number that mattered most, and it moved in the right direction.

The strategic shift underneath the quarter is toward taking more of the risk rather than less. Astrana launched a delegated full-risk arrangement with a payer partner in Texas, lifting Medicare Advantage membership in that market above 14,000, and full-risk contracts now cover roughly 80% of Care Partners capitation revenue and about 40% of consolidated membership. Taking more risk raises both the reward for managing care well and the damage from managing it badly, which is the trade the next several quarters will settle.

Guidance was left unchanged: full-year 2026 revenue of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion and free cash flow of $105 million to $132.5 million. On regulation, management pointed to the 2027 Medicare Advantage rate notice as a help rather than a hindrance, arguing that its historically conservative approach to documenting patient diagnoses leaves it less exposed than peers if the rules on which diagnosis sources count are tightened. That is a testable claim, and the test is the 2027 bid cycle.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Care Partners (reported)

• ALHC (ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …for each enrolled member (i.e., revenue per member per month or "PMPM") , we take responsibility for coordinating and managing our members' healthcare-both their health outcomes and the total costs of their care. The PMPM payment varies based on the geography where members live, the health needs and risks of the…
• FY2025 10-K: …focus on being a persistent advocate for our members. Chronic : The typical member in the "chronic" category is generally a complex patient with multiple chronic conditions in need of significant, coordinated care. Chronic members comprise 14% of our membership but account for 78% of the institutional claims…
• OSCR (Oscar Health, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …system disruptions, and member service issues, including delayed or incorrect premium billing, or data reconciliation challenges with federal and state marketplaces. Additionally, sudden enrollment surges may strain our customer service capacity, technology infrastructure, and third-party vendor relationships,…
• FY2025 10-K: …Oscar's success is built upon our superior member engagement and robust technology platform. Through the +Oscar platform, we deploy our technology to power others throughout the healthcare system. Campaign Builder, our engagement and recommendation platform for providers and payors, leverages predictive analytics to…
• MOH (MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …in Los Angeles, Riverside/San Bernardino, Sacramento, and San Diego counties and significantly expanded our footprint in Los Angeles County. Our California Medicaid contracts represented premium revenue of approximately $4,170 million, or 13%, of our consolidated Medicaid premium revenue in 2025. New York. Our…
• FY2025 10-K: …provider claims, monitoring utilization and other cost factors, supporting our medical management techniques, providing data to our regulators, and implementing our data security measures. Our members and providers depend upon our information systems for enrollment, premium processing, primary care and specialist…
• CNC (CENTENE CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …improvements in quality and health outcomes, healthcare costs and member satisfaction. High-quality provider support and service levels are important as our key customers are increasingly using performance-based measures to select and pay health plans. We have a suite of network performance tools for use by…
• FY2025 10-K: …relevant, most local and most innovative capabilities in an agile and capital-efficient way. Partnership has become both a strategy and discipline: finding, measuring and maintaining the best partners over time. That includes building partnerships with the best providers for our members and investing in data and…
• HUM (HUMANA INC)
• FY2025 10-K: • Long-term care insurance • Weekly paid well-being time • Whole-person well-being and rewards programs and platform • On-demand fitness classes, nutritional education through teaching kitchens, and digital coaching apps • Incentives for engaging in well-being programs Life • Paid time off, paid holidays, paid…
• FY2025 10-K: …income (loss) from operations, to assess performance and allocate resources primarily during our annual budget process and periodic forecast updates. For additional information on our business segments and 4 segment financial information, refer to Note 18 to the audited Consolidated Financial Statements included in…
• ELV (ELEVANCE HEALTH, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …innovation that supports growth and equal opportunity for health access, and cultivating a high-performance culture. -3- With an unyielding commitment to meeting the needs of our diverse customers, we are guided by the following values: We are one of the largest health insurers in the United States in terms of…
• FY2025 10-K: …Group fee-based, BlueCard®, Medicare, Medicaid and FEP ® members. The Health Benefits segment offers health products on a full-risk basis; provides a broad array of administrative managed care services to our fee-based customers; and provides a variety of specialty and other insurance products and services such as…
• UNH (UnitedHealth Group Incorporated)
• FY2025 10-K: …Health's fully accountable value-based care businesses have been impacted by Medicare funding reductions and have also seen continued medical cost trend pressures, which may impact future pricing in the markets we continue to participate in. As a result of increased pricing in response to anticipated care patterns in…
• FY2025 10-K: …operations in an effort to mitigate these impacts. In addition, if these providers refuse to contract with us, use their market position to negotiate favorable contracts or place us at a competitive disadvantage, our ability to market products or to be profitable in those areas could be materially and adversely…

Care Delivery (reported)

• PRVA (Privia Health Group, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …GDP by 2033, according to CMS, outpacing average GDP growth. Transition to VBC Historically, healthcare delivery has centered on reactive care to acute events, which resulted in the development of an FFS payment model. By linking payments to volume of encounters and pricing for higher complexity interventions, the…
• FY2025 10-K: …delivery business as well as entrance into the Indiana market. Attributed Lives We define Attributed Lives as any patient that a payer deems attributed to Privia to deliver care as part of a value-based care arrangement through a provider of primary care services as of the end of a particular period. The number of…
• AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …to patients including private duty nursing and therapy services, (ii) adult home health and hospice services (collectively "patient revenue"); and (iii) from the delivery of enteral nutrition and other products to patients ("product revenue"). The services provided by the Company have no fixed duration and can be…
• FY2025 10-K: …Duty Services ("PDS"); Home Health & Hospice ("HHH"); and Medical Solutions ("MS"). This presentation aligns our financial reporting with the manner in which we manage our business operations, with a focus on the strategic allocation of resources and separate branding strategies between the business divisions.…
• ADUS (Addus HomeCare Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …than the provision of similar services in institutional settings for long-term care. We plan to continue our revenue growth and enhance our competitive positioning by executing on the following growth strategies: 6 Table of Contents Consistently Provide High-Quality Care We schedule and require our caregivers to…
• FY2025 10-K: …who require long-term care and assistance with activities of daily living to maintain their independence at home with their families. Personal care services are a significant component of home and community-based services ("HCBS"), which have grown in significance and demand in recent years. In particular, the demand…
• ENSG (ENSIGN GROUP, INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …or increasing rate growth. In the short term, Medicaid spending may face variability, as each state untangles the implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) passed in July 2025 and the impact to overall state Medicaid budgets from changes to providers taxes and beneficiary eligibility. As an example,…
• FY2025 10-K: …in Item 1., under Government Regulation. The Biden-Harris Administration requested that HHS and CMS study and issue proposed rules regarding care-based careers, including improving access to training, increasing the attractiveness of compensation in care-based positions, and improving the retention and career…
• DVA (DAVITA INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: . As of December 31, 2025, these consisted primarily of our U.S. IKC business, certain U.S. other ancillary businesses (including our clinical research programs, transplant software business, and venture investment group), and our international operations. We have made and continue to make investments in building our…
• FY2025 10-K: …policies addressing, among other things, the goal of making more kidneys available for transplant. CMS, through CMMI, also subsequently released the framework for certain payment models, including the CKCC model, which would adjust payment incentives to encourage kidney transplants. For more information about these…
• HCA (HCA Healthcare, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …from Medicare fee-for-service models to value-based payment and care delivery models. The new strategy is based on three pillars: promoting disease prevention, empowering individuals through information and processes, and driving choice and competition in health care markets. The CMS Innovation Center indicated it…
• FY2025 10-K: …to our commitment to advancing care and creating healthier tomorrows. By empowering colleagues to lead with confidence and purpose, we strengthen our culture, elevate the quality of care delivered to patients, and position our organization for continued growth. Through the award-winning HCA Healthcare Leadership…

Care Enablement (reported)

• PRVA (Privia Health Group, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …GDP by 2033, according to CMS, outpacing average GDP growth. Transition to VBC Historically, healthcare delivery has centered on reactive care to acute events, which resulted in the development of an FFS payment model. By linking payments to volume of encounters and pricing for higher complexity interventions, the…
• FY2025 10-K: …paid by the primary payer that will ultimately be collectible through secondary coverage or from the patient. Retroactive adjustment by, and refunds to, payers may change amounts realized and recognized as revenue from third-party payers. Further, there can be lengthy delays between the provision of services and…
• ALHC (ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …between doctor visits and intervening quickly when health risks arise, we aim to reduce hospitalizations, shorten lengths of stay and improve post-discharge follow up-lowering costs across the enterprise while improving quality of care. In short, we focus on providing more care, not less, to our chronic and high-risk…
• FY2025 10-K: …they are disadvantaged by misaligned incentives that dominate today's healthcare system. As one of our most vulnerable populations, seniors across America need and deserve better. We put our combined decades of healthcare experience to work to create the Alignment model, incorporating best practices learned over our…
• OSCR (Oscar Health, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …are unsuccessful or discontinued, whether as a result of actions by us, our competitors, regulators, or other third parties; • as a result of changes in law or otherwise, our competitors participate in the individual market to a greater extent than they have previously; • there is an initiation of a new SEP,…
• FY2025 10-K: …in the population of the health insurance marketplaces established by the ACA and operated by the federal government, as well as other marketplaces operated by individual states (collectively, "Health Insurance Marketplaces"), as well as increases in our membership. These eAPTCs expired at the end of 2025 and if they…
• CLOV (CLOVER HEALTH INVESTMENTS, CORP. /DE)
• FY2025 10-K: …and industry expectations, new product offerings and constantly evolving beneficiary and provider preferences and user requirements. We face competition from incumbent MA sponsors, many of whom are developing their own technology or partnering with third-party technology providers to drive improvements in care. Our…
• FY2025 10-K: …Clover is the plan for consumers We believe that an approach focused on consumer healthcare choice, enhanced provider trust, and competitive pricing results in distinct value to our members and makes great healthcare available to everyone. • Provider of choice. We value the health decisions our members make and…
• DVA (DAVITA INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …payment. Although Medicare reimbursement limits the allowable charge per treatment, it provides industry participants with a relatively predictable and recurring revenue stream for dialysis services provided to patients without commercial insurance. For the year ended December 31, 2025, approximately 89% of our total…
• FY2025 10-K: …the ACA exchanges. For example, the expiration of certain enhanced premium tax credits available to patients who purchase health insurance on the ACA exchanges is expected to have an adverse impact on the affordability of commercial insurance plans, leading to a smaller percentage of patients covered by such plans.…
• ENSG (ENSIGN GROUP, INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …or increasing rate growth. In the short term, Medicaid spending may face variability, as each state untangles the implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) passed in July 2025 and the impact to overall state Medicaid budgets from changes to providers taxes and beneficiary eligibility. As an example,…
• FY2025 10-K: …expected to deliver these services more efficiently as they performed them repeatedly over time. This reduction is designed to balance out other areas of Medicare spending increases. Telehealth - Among other things, CMS finalized changes to the Medicare Telehealth Services List (MTSL) by adding additional services…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

FY2025 10-K · Astrana Q1 2026 results, May 2026 · Astrana Q1 2026 earnings call, May 2026