Amer Sports, Inc. (AS): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $33.80, Amer Sports, Inc. (AS) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~12.4 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-24.
Generated: 2026-07-24 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/AS
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | AS |
| Company | Amer Sports, Inc. |
| Sector / Industry | Consumer Cyclical |
| Current price | $33.80/sh |
| Composition | Technical Apparel 43% / Outdoor Performance 37% / Ball & Racquet Sports 20% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 8.0% |
| Operating margin today | 11.2% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -3.2pp |
| Must persist for | 12.4y |
| Multiple paid | 31x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 6: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 12.4% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.2 years.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~6.2 years; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: high
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.55σ |
| cohort percentile (of 213 peers) | 81 |
| sustained it ~10 years at this level | 14% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 4.38x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 4.06x | 3 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.43x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 0.81x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.4%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=16)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $41.50 | 0.81x | yes | FCF base $0.6B, growth 24% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.4%, 7yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $42.83 | 0.79x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 26.8x / 28.8x / 30.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $23.79 | 1.42x | yes | P/E 28.21x (blended: static sector reference 22x + trailing (TTM) 43x), scenarios: 22.7x / 28.2x / 33.7x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 18.43x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $8.56 | 3.95x | yes | BV/sh $10.47, ROE (TTM) 7.6%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $7.72 | 4.38x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $41.92 | 0.81x | yes | Rev $6.6B, growth 24% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.3x / 2.9x / 3.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $9.24 | 3.66x | yes | EPS $0.77, growth 2% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=21.34 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $0.65 | 52.00x | yes | Normalized EBIT (latest-period EBIT; under 3y history) $0.23B × (1−36%) / WACC 8.4% → EPV (no growth) (excluded from median) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $7.59 | 4.45x | yes | BV $10.47 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 7.6% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 4.9%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $13.47 | 2.51x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $0.77 × BVPS $10.47) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $15.18 | 2.23x | yes | EBITDA $0.70B × sector EV/EBITDA 14.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $7.49 | 4.51x | yes | FCF $513.3M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $24.85 | 1.36x | yes | EPS $0.77 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $2.54 | 13.31x | yes | BV $10.47 × (ROIC 2.0% / WACC 8.4%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $23.61 | 1.43x | yes | Revenue $6.57B × sector P/S 2.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $28.88 | 1.17x | yes | EPS $0.77 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $8.32 | 4.06x | yes | EPS $0.77 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $282.8m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 0.68x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 0.43x |
| Interest coverage | 5.3x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 17.8% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- Arc'teryx and Salomon are both compounding above 30%, and selling direct reached roughly half of group revenue in the first quarter of 2026, which is what the market is actually buying here.
- The demanding part of the bet is duration rather than pace: today's quote asks the business to hold these economics for about 12.4 years, and every static valuation method lands well below it.
- The next read comes on August 18, 2026, when management reports against a second-quarter guide of 22% to 24% revenue growth and adjusted earnings of $0.08 to $0.10 a share.
Bull Case
Two brands are doing nearly all the work, and in the March quarter both accelerated at the same time. Technical Apparel, 43% of the business and built around Arc'teryx, grew 33% to $885 million. Outdoor Performance, 37% of the business and built around Salomon, grew 42% to $714 million on footwear, apparel, bags and socks. Ball and Racquet Sports, the Wilson-led fifth of revenue and the slowest of the three, still added 13%. Group revenue rose 32% to $1,945 million, and 26% of that came without help from currency.
The engine underneath those numbers is a channel shift, not a fashion cycle. Direct sales reached roughly half of group revenue in the quarter and grew 45%, with comparable omni-channel sales up 19% at Technical Apparel and 29% at Outdoor Performance. A brand that sells its own jacket in its own store keeps the wholesaler's cut, controls the discount calendar, and learns what sold on Tuesday rather than in the following season's order book. That is why gross margin rose 210 basis points to 59.9% while the company was also spending to open stores.
Geography is doing its share too. Greater China grew 45% and the wider Asia Pacific region grew 53%, while the Americas, the market most exposed to a soft North American sporting-goods backdrop, still grew 18%. Technical outdoor gear is one of the few Western categories where Chinese consumers are trading up rather than down, and Arc'teryx is the brand collecting that trade.
Operating leverage is showing up where it counts. First-quarter operating margin reached 16.5%, up 200 basis points, and management raised the full-year outlook across every line: revenue growth to a range of 20% to 22%, gross margin to 59.0% to 59.5%, operating margin to 13.4% to 13.7%, and diluted earnings to $1.18 to $1.23 a share. Raising a full-year margin target one quarter into the year, while also raising the revenue line, is the combination that is hardest to fake.
The balance sheet stopped being an argument in March. The company sold 20,604,396 ordinary shares at $36.40 for roughly $750 million of gross proceeds and used them, with cash on hand, to redeem its 6.750% senior secured notes due 2031. By quarter end non-current borrowings were zero, cash stood at $684 million, and the company reported net cash of $539 million. Interest expense that once ate into a thin bottom line is largely gone.
The bear will say the shares already reflect all of this, and that is fair. What the bull is arguing is narrower: a company converting wholesale revenue into owned revenue, in two brands simultaneously gaining share in their home categories and in China, with no maturity forcing a decision. Compounding of that shape rarely stops in the same quarter the market decides it should.
Bear Case
The price is not asking for a better year. It is asking for a very long one. Today's quote is consistent with the current level of economics being sustained for about 12.4 years, which for a consumer brand company is roughly two complete fashion generations. Amer Sports has been listed since 2024. The evidence available to underwrite a decade and more of persistence is a handful of very good quarters.
That is why the standard lenses land where they do. Book value plus profitability puts the price about 4.4 times above where those methods land; the earnings-power methods sit about 4.1 times below the quote; even peer multiples, the friendliest static comparison available, leave the price around 1.4 times above where they land. Only the cash-flow methods reach it, and they only do so by extending the recent growth rate across the whole projection and leaving today's EBITDA multiple untouched at the end of it. Change either assumption and that last support goes too.
Concentration is the mechanism most likely to change one of them. Roughly four fifths of revenue sits in Technical Apparel and Outdoor Performance, and inside those two segments the story is essentially Arc'teryx and Salomon. Premium outdoor apparel has a history of becoming briefly ubiquitous and then unfashionable, and the further a brand's own-store network is built out, the more fixed cost is waiting when comparable sales slow. Operating leverage is symmetric, which is a polite way of saying it works in reverse.
Geographic dependence compounds it. The fastest growth is coming from Greater China and the wider Asia Pacific region, at 45% and 53% in the March quarter. That is an enviable position and a concentrated one, exposed to Chinese consumer confidence, to domestic athletic brands competing hard at home, and to the possibility that a Western premium label becomes a less attractive purchase for reasons that have nothing to do with the product.
Holders have also been paying for the deleveraging. The share count has risen at a double-digit annual pace since 2023, and the March 2026 equity sale added more than twenty million shares to retire debt the company had chosen to carry. Trading interest expense for permanent dilution is a defensible decision. It is still a transfer from existing holders to bondholders, and it means per-share growth lags revenue growth for as long as the store build-out continues.
The cohort shows what deceleration looks like from the outside. Lululemon, the closest large comparable in premium technical apparel, grew revenue 4% in its April quarter with the Americas down 3%. Deckers grew 12% across the first half of its fiscal 2026. Neither was priced for its old growth rate when growth actually slowed, and both were further along in proving durability than Amer Sports is now. If the pace here settles into the teens, the methods currently sitting far below stop being background and start being the reference.
Valuation
At $33.80 on July 24, 2026, the market is paying about 31 times company-wide operating income. What that buys is not a forecast of next year, which management has already supplied, but time: the price is consistent with today's economics running on for about 12.4 years before anything reverts. Of businesses that have grown this fast, only around one in seven held the pace for a decade.
The methods used to triangulate value disagree sharply, and the pattern in the disagreement is the information. Asset-based approaches, which value the business off its balance sheet and the return it earns on it, put the price roughly 4.4 times above where those methods land. The earnings-power lenses, which capitalise what the company earns now with no growth credited, sit about 4.1 times below the quote. Peer multiples close most but not all of the gap and still leave the price near 1.4 times above where they land. Only the cash-flow methods reach today's price, and they reach it by carrying the recent growth rate through the projection and holding the exit multiple at today's level. That pattern is the whole read: this is a durability premium, and the static frames are structurally unable to price durability.
The operating side of the bet is less demanding than the timeline. Trailing operating margin runs about 11.2%. Management has guided the full year 2026 to an operating margin of 13.4% to 13.7%, and the March quarter already printed 16.5%. The direction of travel therefore supports the price on the margin axis. The question the buyer is answering is not whether margins improve, but whether the improvement and the growth both persist long enough to be worth 31 times operating income.
The balance sheet no longer amplifies the downside. The 6.750% senior secured notes due 2031 were redeemed during the first quarter using the proceeds of a $750 million equity sale together with cash on hand, leaving non-current borrowings at zero, $684 million of cash, and a reported net cash position of $539 million at March 31, 2026. A company with no funded debt and rising direct-channel gross margin can absorb a bad season without a financing conversation, which matters because the equity here carries all of the risk.
Against the cohort, the comparison that sharpens the picture is growth rather than valuation. Lululemon grew 4% in its April quarter and Deckers 12% across its fiscal first half, while Amer Sports grew 32%. A multiple several turns above the group is defensible while a growth differential that wide lasts. The price has already booked more than a decade of it.
Catalysts
August 18, 2026 is the date that matters. Management has guided second-quarter revenue growth of 22% to 24% with adjusted earnings of $0.08 to $0.10 a share, a seasonally small profit quarter in which the revenue line and the channel mix carry the information rather than the bottom line.
The segment guides give the print its shape. Technical Apparel and Outdoor Performance are both guided to 22% to 24% revenue growth for the full year, with Ball and Racquet Sports at 10% to 12%. Two of those three carry the thesis; the third is ballast. Within them, the figure to watch is Greater China, which grew 45% in the March quarter and is the largest single contributor to the acceleration behind the guidance raise.
The financing story is finished, which removes a recurring event from the calendar. The 6.750% senior secured notes due 2031 were redeemed in the first quarter, following a partial $80 million redemption on February 6, 2026 at 103% of principal and the March equity sale that funded the remainder. With non-current borrowings at zero there is no refinancing date to schedule around and no covenant to test, so the calendar between now and the August print is unusually clean. What is left is a quarterly demonstration of whether two brands can keep growing above thirty percent while the company builds out the stores to sell them in.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Core business (reported)
- LULU (lululemon athletica inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- COLM (COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR COMPANY)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- UAA (UNDER ARMOUR, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NKE (NIKE, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- DECK (DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ONON (On Holding AG)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- LEVI (LEVI STRAUSS & CO)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CRI (Carter's, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
Amer Sports Q1 2026 results release, May 19, 2026 · Amer Sports Q1 2026 guidance, May 19, 2026 · Amer Sports Q1 2026 results release and 2026 outlook, May 19, 2026 · Amer Sports public offering pricing announcement, March 3, 2026 · lululemon Q1 fiscal 2026 results, June 4, 2026 · Deckers Brands Q2 fiscal 2026 results · lululemon Q1 fiscal 2026 results, June 4, 2026; Deckers Brands Q2 fiscal 2026 results; Amer Sports Q1 2026 results release · Amer Sports 2026 outlook, May 19, 2026 · Amer Sports redemption notice, January 30, 2026, and public offering pricing announcement, March 3, 2026