APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (APLS): what the price requires
At today's price, APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (APLS) is priced for +37.6% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/APLS
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | APLS |
| Company | APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. |
| Current price | $41.05/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 2.3% |
| Operating margin today | 12.4% |
| Margin compression implied | -10.1pp |
| Implied growth | 37.6% |
| Multiple paid | 36x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 4, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 10.2% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~6.4pp.
How unusual the bet is: extreme
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.36σ |
| cohort percentile (of 113 peers) | 86 |
| sustained it ~5 years at this level | 27% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 3.74x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 3.48x | 3 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.33x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 0.94x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.8%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=16)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $13.04 | 3.15x | yes | FCF base $0.0B, growth 25% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.8%, 7yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $43.81 | 0.94x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 29.6x / 32.6x / 35.6x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $30.87 | 1.33x | yes | P/E 28.94x (blended: static sector reference 24x + trailing (TTM) 40x), scenarios: 23.2x / 28.9x / 34.7x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 20.98x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $10.96 | 3.74x | yes | BV/sh $3.16, ROE (TTM) 32.1%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $21.37 | 1.92x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $59.56 | 0.69x | yes | Rev $1.1B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 3.9x / 4.9x / 5.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $13.08 | 3.14x | yes | EPS $1.09, growth 1% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=29.99 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | $16.89 | 2.43x | yes | BV $3.16 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 32.1% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $8.80 | 4.66x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $1.09 × BVPS $3.16) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $20.16 | 2.04x | yes | EBITDA $0.17B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $3.09 | 13.28x | yes | FCF $37.5M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $35.17 | 1.17x | yes | EPS $1.09 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $2.24 | 18.32x | yes | BV $3.16 × (ROIC 6.2% / WACC 8.8%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $33.64 | 1.22x | yes | Revenue $1.11B × sector P/S 4.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $40.88 | 1.00x | yes | EPS $1.09 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $11.78 | 3.48x | yes | EPS $1.09 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $311.5m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | -2.40x (net cash) |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | -2.34x (net cash) |
| Interest coverage | 3.0x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 7.4% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- Apellis sells two complement-system drugs, SYFOVRE for the eye disease geographic atrophy and EMPAVELI for rare blood and kidney disorders, and total revenue rose to $268.3 million in the most recent quarter from $166.8 million a year earlier.
- The defining risk is competition in geographic atrophy, where Astellas' IZERVAY is the direct rival to SYFOVRE and recently won an FDA label update that lets it dose beyond twelve months.
- What to watch is EMPAVELI's expansion into kidney disease, with positive Phase 3 VALIANT data and pivotal trials underway, set against SYFOVRE's contested eye franchise.
Bull Case
Lead with where the price sits against the methods, because for Apellis the gap is the entire story. At today's price the static valuation lenses are nowhere close: asset value, earnings power, and peer multiples all read the stock as richly valued, and only the forward-growth lens reaches the price. The company just crossed into profitability, so capitalizing its current earnings produces a value at a small fraction of the price; the market is plainly not paying for what Apellis earns today. It is paying for a complement-biology franchise that is scaling fast, and the bull case is that the growth lens is the only one looking at the right thing.
The growth is real and it is broadening. Total revenue rose from $166.8 million to $268.3 million year over year, with SYFOVRE contributing $150.7 million, EMPAVELI $41.3 million (more than double the prior year's $19.7 million), and the rest from licensing including a $55 million milestone from its European partner. The company reported net income of $18.7 million, or $0.15 per diluted share, against a $92.2 million loss a year earlier. A biotech that flips from a large loss to a real profit while doubling its second product is demonstrating that the platform commercializes, not just that one drug landed.
The pipeline is where the durability the static methods cannot price might be earned. EMPAVELI is moving from rare blood disease into kidney disease, with positive Phase 3 VALIANT data and pivotal trials in additional kidney indications named as key value drivers. Apellis carries about $466 million of net cash, so it can fund those programs without immediate financing pressure. The bull case is that complement biology, validated across the eye and the kidney, supports years of compounding revenue, which is exactly the moat-and-durability premium the price embeds and the trailing-earnings methods structurally cannot capture.
Bear Case
The competitive threat has a name, and it is taking share. SYFOVRE was first to market in geographic atrophy, but Astellas' IZERVAY arrived shortly after as a direct rival, and the two now split the only approved market for the disease. IZERVAY recently won an FDA label update allowing dosing beyond a twelve-month window, which removes one of SYFOVRE's relative advantages and intensifies the head-to-head. The pressure is already in the numbers: SYFOVRE's full-year sales were $587 million in 2025, a 4% decline from the prior year. A flagship product that is shrinking in a two-horse race is the central bear fact, because SYFOVRE is still the larger of Apellis's two drugs.
The competitive dynamic matters more given how the stock is priced. At roughly 81 times operating income, the price implies operating growth held at its self-funding ceiling for about fourteen years, a bet the engine flags as elevated, above what the fundamentals comfortably support, and one that only about 14% of comparable fast-growers have historically sustained for even a decade. That requires not just growth but durable growth across both franchises, and the eye franchise is the one losing ground. If SYFOVRE keeps eroding, the entire weight of the valuation shifts onto EMPAVELI and the kidney pipeline, which carry their own clinical and commercial risk.
The financial profile leaves a thin cushion. Operating margin is only about 5.5%, the company just barely turned profitable, and interest is covered only about 1.3 times. The share count has been rising about 11% a year, so existing holders are being diluted even as the business grows, which means per-share value has to outrun both the competition and the dilution. The recent quarter's profit was helped by a $55 million one-time licensing milestone, so the underlying operating profitability is thinner than the headline. The bear case is not that Apellis fails; it is that a contested lead product plus a pipeline-dependent growth story does not support fourteen years of ceiling growth, and a price that only the growth lens reaches has a long way to fall if the durability proves shorter than the price assumes.
Valuation
Name the bet plainly, because the price makes a demanding one. At roughly 81 times company-wide operating income, the price implies operating growth held at its self-funding ceiling for about fourteen years. The engine characterizes that as elevated, above what the fundamentals comfortably support, and the base rate is harsh: only about 14% of comparable fast-growers sustained that pace for even ten years. The company crossed into profitability only recently, so the near-term growth rate is achievable, but the price requires it to persist for the better part of a decade and a half.
The methods are lopsided in a way that defines the stock. Of the valuation families, only the forward-growth lens reaches the price; the asset-based, earnings-power, and peer-multiple lenses all read it as richly valued, several by wide margins. The earnings-power lens, which capitalizes the current free cash flow with no growth, lands at a tiny fraction of the price, because there is almost no current free cash flow to capitalize. The peer-multiple lens, comparing Apellis to specialty pharma, also calls it expensive. This is the signature of a pure moat-and-durability bet: the value lives entirely in future growth that the static frames cannot price, and the buyer is underwriting the durability of two drug franchises rather than the worth of today's earnings.
Solvency, unusually for a recently profitable biotech, is a relative strength. The company carries about $466 million of net cash, which funds the clinical pipeline without immediate financing pressure, though interest coverage is thin at about 1.3 times and the share count is rising about 11% a year. The net cash position is the floor: even with the competitive pressure on SYFOVRE, the balance sheet gives Apellis time to prove the kidney pipeline. The bet a buyer is making is that complement biology compounds across the eye and the kidney for years, against a price that only the growth lens supports and a flagship product already losing share to a named rival.
Catalysts
The first-quarter 2026 result, filed May 7, 2026, marked a turn to profitability. Total revenue rose to $268.3 million from $166.8 million a year earlier, with SYFOVRE at $150.7 million, EMPAVELI at $41.3 million versus $19.7 million the prior year, and $76.3 million of licensing and other revenue that included a $55 million milestone from European partner Sobi. Net income was $18.7 million, or $0.15 per diluted share, against a $92.2 million loss a year earlier. For the year, management expects SYFOVRE gross-to-net in the high-20% range with broadly stable net pricing.
The pipeline is where the next legs of value sit. EMPAVELI is expanding into kidney disease, with positive Phase 3 VALIANT data already in hand and pivotal trials in focal segmental glomerulosclerosis and delayed graft function named as key value drivers, alongside a Phase 2 combination study of SYFOVRE plus APL-3007 with topline results expected in 2027. The kidney readouts are the catalysts that could shift the growth weight away from the contested eye franchise.
The competitive backdrop is the recurring risk to monitor. Astellas' IZERVAY, the direct rival to SYFOVRE in geographic atrophy, won an FDA label update allowing dosing beyond twelve months, and SYFOVRE's full-year 2025 sales of $587 million were down 4% from the prior year. The trajectory of SYFOVRE sales against IZERVAY and the EMPAVELI kidney trial results are the two items most likely to move the stock.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Apellis Pharmaceuticals (single segment) (reported)
- AXSM (AXSOME THERAPEUTICS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …Any consideration related to sales-based royalties will be recognized when the related sales occur. For the year ended December 31, 2025 , the Company recognized royalty revenue of $ 4.7 million related to Pharmanovia's sales of SUNOSI. For the year ended December 31, 2024 , the Company recognized royalty revenue of…
- FY2025 10-K: …party, and Blackstone. This new direct agreement superseded the prior direct agreement among us, Antecip, a related party, and Hercules that had been entered into in connection with the Hercules Loan Agreement, which terminated automatically upon repayment of our Hercules loan obligations in full on May 8, 2025. F-…
- NBIX (NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …false 2025 FY 0000914475 P3Y http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherLiabilitiesCurrent 0.7 - P3Y P3Y one one one one iso4217:USD xbrli:shares iso4217:USD xbrli:shares xbrli:pure nbix:non-clinicalStageCompound nbix:preclinicalCandidate nbix:undisclosedProgram nbix:geneTherapyProgram nbix:segment 0000914475 2025-01-01…
- FY2025 10-K: …in consolidation. Certain reclassifications have been made to previously reported amounts to conform to the current period presentation. Revenue Recognition We recognize revenue when the customer obtains control of promised goods or services in an amount that reflects the consideration which we expect to receive in…
- CORT (CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INC)
- FY2025 10-K: …quantities of API. Competition Our Products compete with established treatments, including surgery, radiation and other medications approved by the FDA for the treatment of patients with Cushing's syndrome. Approved products include Signifor® (pasireotide) to treat patients with Cushing's disease - a subset of…
- FY2025 10-K: …us to obtain acceptable prices or adequate insurance coverage and reimbursement for our Products, which would adversely affect our results of operations and financial position. " Results of Operations Net Product Revenue - Net product revenue is gross product revenue from sales to our customers less deductions for…
- HRMY (HARMONY BIOSCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …for 36 % of gross accounts receivable; and PANTHERx Specialty Pharmacy LLC ("PANTHERx"), which accounted for 19 % of gross accounts receivable. As of December 31, 2024, three customers accounted for 100 % of gross accounts receivable; CVS Caremark, which accounted for 39 % of gross accounts receivable, PANTHERx,…
- FY2025 10-K: …in patients with obstructive sleep apnea. We plan to evaluate this new formulation for fatigue in broader indications, with fatigue in MS as the lead indication, and to explore other potential opportunities such as fatigue in stroke and Parkinson's disease. Our current efforts are focused on formulation optimization…
- ALNY (ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …combination with anti-C5 antibodies. Through the Amended C5 License Agreement, Regeneron is now solely responsible for development, manufacturing and commercialization of cemdisiran as a monotherapy and in combination with anti-C5 antibodies. As part of the Amended C5 License Agreement, we provided manufacturing…
- FY2025 10-K: …also advancing our GEMINI technology, which combines conjugate siRNAs for the simultaneous silencing of two transcripts using a single chemical entity. Finally, we continue to leverage human genetics to advance our efforts to bring innovative medicines to patients. We have established six major…
- ARQT (ARCUTIS BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …circumstances. F-21 Table of Contents ARCUTIS BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC. Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements Other revenue and related income tax expense related to the Huadong agreement was $ 4.0 million and $ 0.4 million, respectively, for the year ended December 31, 2025. Other revenue and related tax income…
- FY2025 10-K: …in sales-based milestones based on certain aggregate annual net sales volumes with respect to a licensed product. With respect to any products the Company commercializes under the Hengrui License Agreement, it will pay tiered royalties to Hengrui on net sales of each licensed product by the Company, or its…
- FOLD (AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …additional geographies. • Commercial and regulatory success in Pompe disease . For the year ended December 31, 2025, Pombiliti ® + Opfolda ® revenue was $112.5 million of consolidated revenue, which represented an increase of $42.3 million compared to the prior year. Pombiliti ® + Opfolda ® has been approved by the…
- FY2025 10-K: …0001178879 FALSE 2025 FY P3Y 0.0208 iso4217:USD xbrli:shares iso4217:USD xbrli:shares fold:therapy fold:country xbrli:pure fold:plan fold:segment fold:vote fold:payment fold:market fold:lawsuit 0001178879 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001178879 2025-06-30 0001178879 2026-02-12 0001178879 2025-12-31 0001178879 2024-12-31…
- ARDX (ARDELYX, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: 1,113,666 1,058,548 Accumulated deficit ( 946,939 ) ( 885,340 ) Accumulated other comprehensive income 198 57 Total stockholders' equity 166,949 173,289 Total liabilities and stockholders' equity $ 501,604 $ 435,754 The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements. 72 Table of Co n t e n t s…
- FY2025 10-K: …binders or who are intolerant of any dose of phosphate binder therapy. The various types of phosphate binders commercialized in the U.S. include the following: Calcium acetate (several prescription brands including PhosLo and Phoslyra); Lanthanum carbonate (Fosrenol); Sevelamer hydrochloride (Renagel); Sevelamer…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
Q1 2026 10-Q, May 7 2026 · FDA label update, 2026 · Q1 2026 earnings call, May 7 2026 · company disclosures, 2025 · FDA label update, 2026; company disclosures, 2025