AMPHENOL CORP /DE/ (APH): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $157.74, AMPHENOL CORP /DE/ (APH) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~5.8 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-25.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/APH

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 7: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.6% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.6%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• Amphenol earns a trailing operating margin of 24.6%, well ahead of every company it is usually compared with, including TE Connectivity (TEL) at 19.7% and Corning (GLW) at 15.2%.
• The 2025 expansion was not mostly bought: net sales rose "52% in U.S. dollars, 51% in constant currencies and 38% organically", and it is that organic pace the current price extrapolates.
• Second-quarter results and the call land on July 29, 2026, against management's own guide of $8.1 billion to $8.2 billion of sales and GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.13 to $1.15.

Bull Case

Component makers are supposed to be easy to value and dull to own. They sell parts into somebody else's product, the customer holds the pricing power, and the earnings follow whatever cycle that customer is riding. Price them on a mid-cycle multiple, allow for the downturn, and move on. That framework describes most of this cohort accurately. It does not describe Amphenol, and the gap is measurable rather than rhetorical.

The measurement is the operating margin. Amphenol runs at 24.6% on a trailing basis. TE Connectivity (TEL), the closest thing to a direct peer, earns 19.7%. Corning (GLW) earns 15.2%, CTS (CTS) 15.9%, Bel Fuse (BELFA) 15.6%, TTM Technologies (TTMI) 9.2%, Littelfuse (LFUS) 2.8%, Vishay (VSH) 2.4%, and Rogers (ROG) is negative at 4.1%. A parts business is not supposed to be able to do that, and doing it consistently is the entire investment case.

The explanation the company gives is organisational rather than technological. It "relies on local management in every region, which we believe creates a high degree of organizational stability and operational agility, as well as a deeper understanding of local markets", and it extends the same principle into places most firms centralise: "the Company maintains a decentralized information technology infrastructure, where each of our business units utilizes a separate and distinct information technology system." Dozens of small businesses each own their customers, their costs and their pricing. Nobody in Wallingford decides what a connector for a defence programme should cost.

That structure is also what makes the acquisitions work, and there have been a lot of them. Trexon, folded into Harsh Environment Solutions, "expands the Company's high-reliability interconnect and cable assembly capabilities, primarily for the defense market" and brought $708.2 million of goodwill with $318.0 million of definite-lived intangibles. Andrew, in Communications Solutions, added "advanced antenna and associated interconnect products, technologies and capabilities" for next-generation wireless. An acquirer that leaves the acquired management in charge of its own P&L has a far easier integration problem than one that promises synergies from consolidation.

And the growth in 2025 was mostly earned rather than purchased. The 10-K reports that "Net sales were $23,094.7 for the year ended December 31, 2025 compared to $15,222.7 for the year ended December 31, 2024, representing an increase of 52% in U.S. dollars, 51% in constant currencies and 38% organically." Thirty-eight percent organic, from a business this size, is the number that separates a compounder from a roll-up. It is also the number the price is betting continues in some diminished form for years.

Bear Case

Look at what sits on the asset side of this balance sheet, because it explains more about the risk than the debt does. A large share of what Amphenol owns was bought rather than built. Goodwill stood at $7,092.4 million across the three segments at the end of 2023, and the purchases since have kept adding to it: the 2024 acquisitions produced "$1,195.1 of goodwill and $576.0 of definite-lived intangible assets, comprised of customer relationships and acquired backlog", and Trexon alone brought $708.2 million more. Book value works out to $10.84 a share. Almost nothing an investor is buying here is tangible.

That matters for how the leverage should be read. Net debt of $14.2 billion sits at about 2.4 times operating profit, and operating profit covers the interest bill 13.4 times over, which looks entirely comfortable. But both of those ratios are measured against operating profit produced at a 24.6% margin, and no other company in this cohort earns anything close to that. TE Connectivity (TEL) manages 19.7%, Corning (GLW) 15.2%, TTM Technologies (TTMI) 9.2%. Move Amphenol's margin toward the middle of that range and gross borrowings of $18.7 billion sit against a much smaller stream, with the coverage ratio falling faster than the revenue does.

The acquisition engine also has to keep running for the story to hold, and the company lists what can go wrong with it in its own words: integration risk includes "retaining the management team; managing the response of business partners and competitors; exposure to new regions and countries, including managing the impact of particular economic, tax, currency, political, legal and regulatory risks associated with specific countries; or retaining key employees, suppliers and distributors." A decentralised acquirer buys the management along with the assets. When that management leaves, the thing that was purchased leaves with them.

Geography adds a second structural exposure. Half of revenue comes from foreign locations outside China, with China itself at 16% and the United States at 35%, and the manufacturing footprint follows the revenue. The 10-K notes that difficulties in international operations "may include regulatory restrictions and the imposition of additional tariffs" and that these "may also negatively impact the pricing of materials and components sourced or used by the Company." A margin advantage built partly on where things are made is a margin advantage exposed to trade policy.

None of that would matter much at a modest multiple. At $152.68 the market pays about 34 times company-wide operating profit, which requires today's economics to hold for roughly 7.6 years. Only about 21% of companies operating at that level sustained it that long. Approaches built on asset value land about 3.4 times under the quote and those built on earnings power about 5.2 times under. Only the forward cash-flow methods reach the price, and they reach it by assuming the current EBITDA multiple survives to the exit year intact.

Valuation

What today's price asks for is persistence rather than acceleration. At $152.68 the market pays about 34 times company-wide operating profit, and that multiple needs today's economics to hold for roughly 7.6 years. The historical record on that specific requirement is the useful reference: of companies that reached this level, only about 21% held it that long. The read comes out elevated, which describes how rarely the requirement has been met, not a prediction about this particular business.

The methods disagree in a very particular shape. Approaches built on asset value land about 3.4 times below the price. Approaches built on earnings power land about 5.2 times below. Peer multiples land about 1.35 times below. Only the forward cash-flow methods reach today's level, and the assumption doing the work there is that the current EBITDA multiple survives to the end of the projection intact. When precisely one family reaches the price, and it is the one that credits future expansion, the premium being paid is for durability the static frames cannot encode. That is worth naming plainly rather than averaging into a single figure.

What has to prove durable is unusually well documented here. The 10-K reports 2025 net sales of $23,094.7 million against $15,222.7 million in 2024, "an increase of 52% in U.S. dollars, 51% in constant currencies and 38% organically." The trailing operating margin is 24.6%, which is the highest in its comparison set by a clear distance: TE Connectivity (TEL) earns 19.7%, Bel Fuse (BELFA) 15.6%, TTM Technologies (TTMI) 9.2%. So the multiple is not paying for a turnaround or a recovery. It is paying for the continuation of results that are already at the top of the group.

Where those results come from shapes the risk to them. Locations outside the United States and China supply half of revenue, the United States 35% and China 16%, so the earnings stream carries currency, tariff and jurisdictional exposure that a domestically concentrated peer does not. That is a feature of the operating model rather than a defect, but it belongs in any assessment of how stable the margin is.

The balance sheet is not the constraint at present. Net debt of $14.2 billion runs at about 2.4 times operating profit, interest is covered 13.4 times, liquid assets are $4.583 billion, and the share count has moved only about 0.8% a year over the four years to March 2026. The guidance record offers less to lean on: the ledger since 2006 shows 8 raises and a single withdrawal, which is a thin history for judging how management handles a forecast when conditions turn.

Catalysts

The most recent reported quarter, published on April 29, 2026, was a record. Sales reached $7.62 billion, up 58% against the prior-year quarter with 33% of that organic, and the result came in ahead of the company's own guidance. Growth at that rate from a business already generating more than $20 billion of annual revenue is the fact driving the current multiple.

Management guided the second quarter in the same release: sales of $8.1 billion to $8.2 billion, a 43% to 45% increase over the prior-year quarter, with GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.13 to $1.15. Those are the specific figures the next print gets measured against.

Second-quarter results and the accompanying conference call are scheduled for Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 1:00 p.m. Eastern time. Two things in that release matter more than the headline beat or miss. Whether organic growth is still running near the pace the 2025 annual report described, and whether the operating margin holds at a level no comparable company in this group currently reaches.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Communications Solutions (reported)

• TEL (TE CONNECTIVITY PLC)
• FY2025 10-K: …and consumer applications. The Transportation Solutions segment's major competitors include Yazaki, Aptiv, Sumitomo, Sensata, Honeywell, Molex, and Amphenol. Industrial Solutions The Industrial Solutions segment is a leading supplier of products that connect and distribute power, data, and signals. The primary…
• FY2025 10-K: 3; Below is a description of our reportable segments and the primary products, markets, and competitors of each segment. 1 Table of Contents Transportation Solutions The Transportation Solutions segment is a leader in connectivity and sensor technologies. The primary products sold by the Transportation Solutions…
• GLW (CORNING INC /NY)
• FY2025 10-K: The Optical Communications segment is divided into two main product groupings - carrier network and enterprise network. The carrier network group consists primarily of products and solutions for optical-based communications infrastructure for services such as video, data and voice communications. The enterprise…
• FY2025 10-K: …applications, supporting a path to speeds of 400G and beyond. We invented new fibers, cables and connectors to capture the generative AI enterprise demand. This includes our SMF-28e® Contour fiber, a 40% smaller fiber delivering improved bend resistance in high-density environments. This fiber forms the basis of our…
• BELFA (BEL FUSE INC /NJ)
• FY2025 10-K: …A roll forward of the redeemable noncontrolling interest for the years ended December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024 is included in the accompanying consolidated statements of shareholders' equity and redeemable noncontrolling interest. 53 Table of Contents 4. REVENUE Nature of Goods and Services Our revenues are…
• FY2025 10-K: …solutions within the commercial aerospace, military communications, defense, network infrastructure, structured building cabling and several industrial applications. Magnetic Solutions Segment: This segment includes the Company's ICM products, which integrate RJ45 connectors with discrete magnetic components to…
• CTS (CTS CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: 5, 2027, with early adoption permitted. The Company is currently evaluating the impact of adopting ASU 2025-06. NOTE 2 - Revenue Recognition CTS designs and manufactures sensors, actuators, and electronic components for original equipment manufacturers and the U.S. Government. For each contract with a customer, we…
• FY2025 10-K: …excise tax would be payable by us, and not by a redeeming holder, the imposition of this excise tax could cause a reduction in the cash available on hand to implement the repurchase program. Item 1B. Unresolv ed Staff Comments None. Item 1C. Cybersecurity Risk Management and Strategy The Company's cybersecurity risk…
• LFUS (LITTELFUSE INC /DE)
• FY2025 10-K: …and power distribution. 4 Table of Contents • Provide More Complete Solutions for a Broader Set of Customers: The Company aims to increase engagement with market leaders by transitioning from a siloed, product-centric approach to a collaborative, market-facing sales structure. This realignment will allow the Company…
• FY2025 10-K: …protection and switching thyristors, silicon and silicon carbide metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistors ("MOSFETs") and diodes, and insulated gate bipolar transistors ("IGBT") technologies. The segment covers a broad range of end markets, including data center - computing and communication, data center…
• TTMI (TTM TECHNOLOGIES INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …one-stop solution for customers. We are one of the largest technology manufacturers in North America and have a global sales and manufacturing presence. We believe we have significant economies of scale, an increasing end-to-end value chain solution for customers, a regionally diversified and resilient manufacturing…
• FY2025 10-K: …to deliver highly complex interconnect and integration solutions to customers in significantly compressed lead times. This rapid delivery service enables OEMs to develop sophisticated electronic products more quickly and reduce their time to market. Further, we believe our customized RF solutions from the concept…

Harsh Environment Solutions (reported)

• TEL (TE CONNECTIVITY PLC)
• FY2025 10-K: …and custom-designed solutions to meet the daily demands of home appliances, including washers, dryers, refrigerators, air conditioners, dishwashers, cooking appliances, water heaters, air purifiers, floor care devices, and microwaves. ● Aerospace, defense, and marine (19% of segment's net sales)- We design, develop,…
• FY2025 10-K: …and consumer applications. The Transportation Solutions segment's major competitors include Yazaki, Aptiv, Sumitomo, Sensata, Honeywell, Molex, and Amphenol. Industrial Solutions The Industrial Solutions segment is a leading supplier of products that connect and distribute power, data, and signals. The primary…
• BELFA (BEL FUSE INC /NJ)
• FY2025 10-K: …customers and partners are implementing increasingly stringent environmental performance criteria within their value chains. Any actual or perceived deficiency in meeting these standards could materially impact our market position, customer relationships, and overall business performance. Given our extensive…
• FY2025 10-K: …This collaborative approach enables partnerships with customers for technical development efforts. The global capabilities and collaborative approach allow Bel to develop leading edge technological products that support highly complex and evolving markets such as defense, commercial aerospace, eMobility, cloud…
• CTS (CTS CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …financial condition and operating results could be materially adversely affected. Products we manufacture may contain design or manufacturing defects that could result in reduced demand for our products or services and liability claims against us. We maintain high quality control and quality assurance processes.…
• FY2025 10-K: …key facilities of our significant suppliers. If any of our key facilities or the key facilities of our significant suppliers experience a significant operational disruption or catastrophic loss, it could delay, disrupt or reduce production, shipments and revenue, and result in potentially significant expenses to…
• LFUS (LITTELFUSE INC /DE)
• FY2025 10-K: …protection and switching thyristors, silicon and silicon carbide metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistors ("MOSFETs") and diodes, and insulated gate bipolar transistors ("IGBT") technologies. The segment covers a broad range of end markets, including data center - computing and communication, data center…
• FY2025 10-K: …and power distribution. 4 Table of Contents • Provide More Complete Solutions for a Broader Set of Customers: The Company aims to increase engagement with market leaders by transitioning from a siloed, product-centric approach to a collaborative, market-facing sales structure. This realignment will allow the Company…
• ROG (Rogers Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …industrial (e.g., variable frequency drives), connected devices (e.g., mobile internet devices and thermal solutions) and wired infrastructure (e.g., computing and internet protocol infrastructure) markets. We believe these materials have characteristics that offer performance and other functional advantages in many…
• FY2025 10-K: …and internet protocol infrastructure) markets. We believe these materials have characteristics that offer performance and other functional advantages in many applications, which serve to differentiate our products from other commonly available materials. AES products are sold globally to fabricators, distributors and…
• TTMI (TTM TECHNOLOGIES INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …one-stop solution for customers. We are one of the largest technology manufacturers in North America and have a global sales and manufacturing presence. We believe we have significant economies of scale, an increasing end-to-end value chain solution for customers, a regionally diversified and resilient manufacturing…
• FY2025 10-K: …hi-reliability multi-chip modules, and beamforming and switching networks. We also offer value-added services including DFM, PCB layout design, simulation and testing, QTA production, and specialized RF assembly and testing. By offering this wide range of engineered systems, RF components and subsystems, advanced…

Interconnect and Sensor Systems (reported)

• VSH (VISHAY INTERTECHNOLOGY INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …needed. By increasing our capacity and capabilities, we are also enhancing our ability to support all the business channels, while maximizing the profitability of each one through a focus on higher margin customers. We are providing greater technical support and engaging with customers' in-house design engineers…
• FY2025 10-K: …technologies, and packaging methods have been invented, designed, and developed by Dr. Zandman, our engineers, and our scientists. Our components today are smaller, faster, and more reliable than in the past, helping our customers to be more inventive and evolve their businesses. Our components are used by virtually…
• TEL (TE CONNECTIVITY PLC)
• FY2025 10-K: …and consumer applications. The Transportation Solutions segment's major competitors include Yazaki, Aptiv, Sumitomo, Sensata, Honeywell, Molex, and Amphenol. Industrial Solutions The Industrial Solutions segment is a leading supplier of products that connect and distribute power, data, and signals. The primary…
• FY2025 10-K: 3; Below is a description of our reportable segments and the primary products, markets, and competitors of each segment. 1 Table of Contents Transportation Solutions The Transportation Solutions segment is a leader in connectivity and sensor technologies. The primary products sold by the Transportation Solutions…
• LFUS (LITTELFUSE INC /DE)
• FY2025 10-K: …and Sensors reporting unit within the Industrial segment, and $ 36.1 million and $ 8.6 million of non-cash goodwill impairment charges associated with the Industrial Controls and Sensors reporting unit within the Industrial segment and the Automotive Sensors reporting unit within the Transportation segment,…
• FY2025 10-K: …protection and switching thyristors, silicon and silicon carbide metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistors ("MOSFETs") and diodes, and insulated gate bipolar transistors ("IGBT") technologies. The segment covers a broad range of end markets, including data center - computing and communication, data center…
• CTS (CTS CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: 5, 2027, with early adoption permitted. The Company is currently evaluating the impact of adopting ASU 2025-06. NOTE 2 - Revenue Recognition CTS designs and manufactures sensors, actuators, and electronic components for original equipment manufacturers and the U.S. Government. For each contract with a customer, we…
• FY2025 10-K: …discussed in further detail in Item 1A. of this Annual Report on Form 10-K and other filings made with the SEC. CTS undertakes no obligation to publicly update CTS' forward-looking statements to reflect new information or events or circumstances that arise after the date hereof, including market or industry changes.…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.