ARTIVION, INC. (AORT): what the price requires
At today's price, ARTIVION, INC. (AORT) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~11.0 years. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/AORT
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | AORT |
| Company | ARTIVION, INC. |
| Current price | $23.84/sh |
| Composition | Aortic stent grafts 36% / On-X 23% / Surgical sealants 17% / Other products 2% / Preservation services 22% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 5.3% |
| Operating margin today | 6.5% |
| Margin compression implied | -1.2pp |
| Must persist for | 11.0y |
| Multiple paid | 47x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 11, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 10% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.1 years.
How unusual the bet is: high
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.15σ |
| cohort percentile (of 112 peers) | 90 |
| sustained it ~10 years at this level | 14% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 9.39x | 3 | expensive |
| Earnings | 5.89x | 2 | expensive |
| Relative | 2.37x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 0.92x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.9%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=13)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $30.29 | 0.79x | yes | FCF base $0.1B, growth 18% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 7.9%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $25.90 | 0.92x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 29.7x / 31.7x / 33.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $13.72 | 1.74x | yes | P/E 47.23x (blended: static sector reference 24x + trailing (TTM) 101x), scenarios: 38.5x / 47.2x / 56.0x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 20.7x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $2.54 | 9.39x | yes | BV/sh $9.06, ROE (TTM) 2.6%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $1.48 | 16.11x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $19.81 | 1.20x | yes | Rev $0.5B, growth 18% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.1x / 2.6x / 3.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $3.00 | 7.95x | yes | EPS $0.25, growth 2% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=50.71 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $0.01 | 2384.00x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.02B × (1−21%) / WACC 7.9% → EPV (no growth) (excluded from median) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $1.09 | 21.87x | yes | BV $9.06 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 2.6% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 1.7%/yr (excluded from median) |
| Graham Number | Asset | $7.14 | 3.34x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $0.25 × BVPS $9.06) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $10.08 | 2.37x | yes | EBITDA $0.04B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 2384.00x | yes | FCF $14.6M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median) |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $8.07 | 2.95x | yes | EPS $0.25 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $0.81 | 29.43x | yes | BV $9.06 × (ROIC 0.7% / WACC 7.9%) (excluded from median) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $36.89 | 0.65x | yes | Revenue $0.46B × sector P/S 4.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $9.38 | 2.54x | yes | EPS $0.25 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $2.70 | 8.83x | yes | EPS $0.25 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $163.5m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 7.17x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 5.67x |
| Interest coverage | 1.1x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 5.7% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- Artivion sells implants and devices for aortic disease, a narrow surgical niche where its On-X mechanical heart valve and stent grafts grew 20% and 21% year over year in the most recent quarter, faster than the medical-device sector as a whole.
- The defining risk is the balance sheet behind the growth: trailing operating income covers interest only about 1.5 times, and the company just drew a $150 million term loan to fund the Endospan acquisition.
- The next catalysts are regulatory and already partly in hand: NEXUS won FDA approval in April 2026, the Endospan deal closed in May, and management expects the AMDS aortic device cleared by midyear.
Bull Case
The moat here is anatomical, and it shows up in the growth rate of the products that sit inside it. Artivion builds devices for aortic disease, the kind of surgery where a surgeon's familiarity with a specific implant is itself a switching cost, and where regulatory approval is a years-long gate that keeps new entrants out. In the most recent quarter the On-X mechanical heart valve grew 20%, stent grafts grew 21%, and tissue preservation services grew 23%, all year over year, on total revenue of $116.3 million, up 17.5%. That is a portfolio of niche surgical products compounding in the high teens, which is unusual for a company this size and is the substance of the bull case.
The pipeline is converting from promise to product, which is what changes a story stock into a growing one. The NEXUS Aortic Arch System won FDA approval in April 2026, and management expects the AMDS device, used in acute aortic dissection, cleared by midyear. Each approval opens a U.S. market the company could not previously sell into, and the aortic arch is one of the harder surgical territories to address, which is precisely why a device that works there commands attention. The acquisition of Endospan, completed in May 2026, brought the NEXUS platform fully in-house.
The valuation case rests on durability rather than on today's earnings, and the bull has to own that honestly. Only the cash-flow methods reach the current price; the asset, earnings, and peer-multiple lenses all read the stock as richly valued. The bet is that the high-teens revenue growth persists long enough to grow into the multiple. With revenue around $460 million and a product line that keeps posting double-digit gains, the path is visible: margins expand as the new approvals scale, and a portfolio that took years to build does not get replicated quickly. If the growth holds, the static methods will be the ones that were wrong.
Bear Case
The fragility is in the capital structure, and it is the kind that does not announce itself until it matters. Artivion carries about $160 million of net debt against trailing operating income of roughly $37 million, which means net debt sits above four times operating profit and interest is covered only about 1.5 times. For a company still growing into profitability, a coverage ratio that thin leaves almost no cushion. Then the company drew a $150 million term loan to fund the $135 million Endospan purchase, adding leverage on top of a balance sheet that was already stretched. A single bad quarter, a supply disruption, or a delayed approval would press directly on the ability to service that debt. The growth and the leverage are now joined: the company must keep executing not only to justify the multiple but to carry the borrowing.
The second pressure is dilution, which quietly works against shareholders even when the business grows. The share count has been rising about 6% a year, so per-share value has to outrun that headwind before holders see any of the revenue growth. A growing company that funds itself partly by issuing stock is asking its owners to run up a down escalator.
The valuation is the part the bull cannot wish away. At roughly 43 times company-wide operating income, the price implies operating growth held at its self-funding ceiling for about a decade, a pace that runs well above what the company has actually delivered and that only a small fraction of fast-growers have historically sustained that long. The recent guidance reset is the early warning: full-year revenue guidance came in below estimates on softer U.S. AMDS starter-set sales and weak international stent graft markets, notably the Middle East. Analysts moved with it, Canaccord cutting its target to $36 from $48 and Citizens to $48 from $53, both still above the current price but both lower than before. If high-teens growth fades toward the low double digits, the only method that reaches the price stops reaching it, and a 43-times multiple has nothing beneath it.
Valuation
Start with what the price is paying for, because it is a demanding number. At roughly 43 times company-wide operating income, the price implies operating growth held at its self-funding ceiling for about ten years. Measured against the company's own record, that pace runs well above what it has actually delivered, and only about one in six comparable fast-growers has historically sustained that level for nine or ten years. This is not a value stock priced for erosion; it is a growth stock priced for a long runway.
The methods agree on that diagnosis, and the agreement is lopsided. Of the families that value the business, only the forward-growth lens reaches the price. The asset-based methods, built on a book value near $9 a share and a trailing return on equity of only about 2.6%, land far below it. The earnings-power methods, which capitalize current free cash flow with no growth, land far below it as well, because there is little current earnings to capitalize. The peer-multiple lens reads the stock against a device sector that trades richly and still calls it expensive. The pattern is unambiguous: the price is a bet on durable compounding that the static frames structurally cannot price. The cash-flow methods reach it only by carrying the high-teens revenue growth forward for years. Name the bet plainly, because the X-ray does: this is a moat-and-durability premium, and it lives or dies on whether the growth persists.
Solvency is where the optimism meets its limit. Net debt of about $160 million sits above four times trailing operating income, interest coverage is near 1.5 times, and the company just added a $150 million term loan to fund the Endospan acquisition. That is a balance sheet running close to its capacity, and the rising share count means equity is being used to help fund the growth. For a company priced on a decade of compounding, the thin coverage is the single number that most constrains how much execution risk the price can absorb.
Catalysts
The first-quarter 2026 result, reported May 7, 2026, framed both the momentum and the reset. Revenue rose 17.5% to $116.3 million, with stent grafts up 21%, the On-X valve up 20%, preservation services up 23%, and BioGlue up 4%, all year over year. But full-year revenue guidance landed about 1.5% below analyst estimates, with management pointing to softer U.S. AMDS starter-set sales, weak international stent graft demand notably in the Middle East, and some supply-chain bottlenecks. The growth is real, and so is the near-term friction.
The regulatory and deal calendar is where the next legs of growth sit. The NEXUS Aortic Arch System won FDA approval in April 2026, opening the U.S. aortic-arch market, and management expects the AMDS device for acute aortic dissection cleared by midyear. The acquisition of Endospan, the developer of NEXUS, closed on May 18, 2026 for $135 million upfront, funded by a previously drawn $150 million term loan. These approvals are the levers the durable-growth thesis depends on; the AMDS clearance in particular is the next dated event.
Analyst sentiment cooled with the guidance reset but stayed constructive. Canaccord cut its price target to $36 from $48 and Citizens to $48 from $53, both citing softer stent graft sales while keeping favorable ratings. The two figures most likely to move the next print are the pace of the AMDS U.S. ramp and whether international stent graft demand stabilizes.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Medical Devices (reported)
- ATRC (AtriCure, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GMED (GLOBUS MEDICAL, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- LIVN (LivaNova PLC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- EW (EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- BSX (BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- MMSI (MERIT MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AXGN (AXOGEN, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Preservation Services (reported)
- ATRC (AtriCure, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- PEN (Penumbra, Inc)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- MMSI (MERIT MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- LMAT (LEMAITRE VASCULAR, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- TFX (TELEFLEX INCORPORATED)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- TMDX (TransMedics Group, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ICUI (ICU MEDICAL INC/DE)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ESTA (Establishment Labs Holdings Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
Q1 CY2026 earnings release, May 7 2026 · Q1 CY2026 10-Q; 8-K, May 18 2026 · 8-K, May 18 2026 · Q1 CY2026 10-Q · Q1 CY2026 earnings call, May 7 2026 · analyst notes, May 2026