ANI PHARMACEUTICALS, INC (ANIP): what the price requires
At today's price, ANI PHARMACEUTICALS, INC (ANIP) is priced for -0.8% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/ANIP
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | ANIP |
| Company | ANI PHARMACEUTICALS, INC |
| Current price | $81.42/sh |
| Composition | Generics and Other 45% / Rare Disease and Brands 55% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 7.7% |
| Operating margin today | 13.2% |
| Margin compression implied | -5.5pp |
| Implied growth | -0.8% |
| Multiple paid | 15x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 5, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 7.8% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~6.6pp.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~8.1%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.46σ |
| cohort percentile (of 112 peers) | 27 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value, while asset-based lands below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.70x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.06x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.56x | 5 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.50x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Earnings, Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $482.92 | 0.17x | yes | FCF base $0.2B, growth 25% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.1%, 7yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $163.38 | 0.50x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 5.2x / 8.2x / 11.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $140.88 | 0.58x | yes | P/E 24x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 19.2x / 24.0x / 28.8x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 16x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $46.24 | 1.76x | yes | BV/sh $26.10, ROE (TTM) 16.4%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $60.75 | 1.34x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $118.14 | 0.69x | yes | Rev $0.9B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.5x / 1.9x / 2.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $46.92 | 1.74x | yes | EPS $3.91, growth 2% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=9.52 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $11.70 | 6.96x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.03B × (1−27%) / WACC 8.1% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $61.52 | 1.32x | yes | BV $26.10 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 16.4% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $47.92 | 1.70x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $3.91 × BVPS $26.10) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $158.63 | 0.51x | yes | EBITDA $0.21B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $96.20 | 0.85x | yes | FCF $191.2M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $76.51 | 1.06x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.15B (FCF $0.19B − SBC $0.04B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $126.16 | 0.65x | yes | EPS $3.91 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $16.42 | 4.96x | yes | BV $26.10 × (ROIC 5.1% / WACC 8.1%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $171.50 | 0.47x | yes | Revenue $0.92B × sector P/S 4.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $146.63 | 0.56x | yes | EPS $3.91 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $42.27 | 1.93x | yes | EPS $3.91 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $5.7m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | -0.07x (net cash) |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | -0.05x (net cash) |
| Interest coverage | 3.6x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 7.5% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- ANI Pharmaceuticals is shifting from a generics maker into a rare-disease company, with rare disease and brands now about 55% of revenue and the lead product, Cortrophin Gel, growing 42% year over year.
- The price embeds almost no growth, implying roughly flat-to-slightly-declining operating profit, which is a cautious bet against a company whose rare-disease segment is compounding in the high 30s.
- The risk is concentration and erosion: Cortrophin is the swing product, the generics half faces relentless price competition, and the share count has grown about 7.5% a year, so dilution is the offset to watch against the revenue growth.
Bull Case
The right sector lens here is that ANI is two different pharma businesses, and the high-value one is taking over. Generics is a brutal, price-eroding business where, as the filing puts it, products "can be subject to progressive price reductions and/or decreased volume of sales" the moment competition arrives. Rare disease and branded products are the opposite: differentiated, harder to substitute, and far more profitable. ANI has been deliberately tilting toward the latter, and rare disease and brands are now about 55% of revenue. The most recent quarter showed the shift accelerating, with rare disease net revenues up 36.9% to $94.4 million, led by Cortrophin Gel up 42.1% to $75.1 million and ILUVIEN up 19.5%.
Cortrophin Gel is the engine, and its trajectory is what makes the bull case. A drug growing north of 40% with a defined commercial opportunity is rare for a company this size, and management is investing to widen the runway, advancing organizational expansion focused on capturing the opportunity in acute gouty arthritis flares. The company reaffirmed full-year Cortrophin guidance of $540 million to $575 million, a sign of confidence in the durability of that growth, and raised total 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $1.08 billion to $1.14 billion. A single high-growth product can carry a small pharma a long way, and Cortrophin is doing exactly that.
The consolidated results show the mix shift reaching the bottom line. Quarterly revenue rose 20.5% to $237.5 million with adjusted EBITDA of $63 million, on an operating margin around 13%. The generics portfolio, while structurally challenged, still throws off cash and royalties that help fund the rare-disease build-out, so the two segments work together: the cash-generative generics base bankrolls the higher-margin growth franchise. For a company priced as if it will barely grow, a rare-disease engine compounding in the high 30s is the gap between the price and the business.
Bear Case
The moat-erosion thesis applies on two fronts, and the first is structural to half the business. The generics portfolio is, by the company's own description, a segment where "essentially all of our Generics products face compe"tition and where introducing a product often means facing "immediate competition" as patents expire and authorized generics arrive. That is a treadmill: each product erodes in price over time, and the segment has to keep launching new generics simply to stand still. For the 45% of revenue that sits in generics, the default trajectory is decline, which is part of why the price embeds almost no overall growth despite the rare-disease momentum.
The second erosion risk is concentration in the very product the bull case depends on. Cortrophin Gel is the growth engine, but concentration in a single product is fragile: a reimbursement change, a new competitor, a safety signal, or simply a maturing market could slow it, and there is no second product of comparable scale to absorb the shock. The rare-disease strategy works beautifully while Cortrophin compounds; it is exposed the moment that one product stumbles. A company whose forward story rests heavily on one drug carries a binary quality the diversified-looking revenue base can obscure.
The capital structure adds the quieter pressure. ANI carries about $305 million of gross debt against modest operating income, with interest coverage near 3.9 times, and the share count has grown about 7.5% a year, the signature of a company funding its rare-disease expansion partly through dilution. Dilution is the offset to revenue growth that a per-share investor has to clear: if shares grow 7.5% while operating profit grows little, per-share value can stall even as the company gets bigger. The valuation reads the price as cheap on most methods, so the bear is not an overvaluation argument. It is that the generics erosion, the Cortrophin concentration, and the ongoing dilution together explain why the market is pricing in flat-to-declining profit, and any one of them worsening would validate that caution.
Valuation
At the current price the market is paying about 15 times company-wide operating income, which inverts to roughly flat-to-slightly-negative operating growth, on the order of minus 2% a year. That is a notably cautious bet for a company whose rare-disease segment is growing in the high 30s, and it tells you the market is weighing the generics erosion and the dilution against the Cortrophin momentum and landing on near-stagnation. Against ANI's own recent record that implied pace is well within range, so the price is not demanding; it is skeptical.
The methods we use to triangulate mostly support the price, with one dissent that names the risk. The earnings-power, peer-multiple, and forward-growth lenses all read the price as supported or cheap; only the asset-value lens reads it as expensive, which is unsurprising for a company whose value sits in product franchises and intangibles rather than hard assets. When three of four families back the price and only the asset lens objects, this is a value-and-earnings-supported name, not a stretched-growth one. The market is paying a reasonable multiple of current earnings and crediting little forward growth, which means the upside case is simply that the rare-disease engine outruns the generics decline by more than the price assumes.
Solvency frames the downside and belongs in the close. ANI carries about $305 million of gross debt against modest operating income, with interest coverage near 3.9 times, manageable but not a fortress, and the share count growing around 7.5% a year is the real watch item, because dilution is the mechanism that can erode per-share value even as revenue climbs. The decisive fact is not a growth rate the price requires, since it requires almost none; it is whether Cortrophin and the rare-disease portfolio can compound faster than generics erode and faster than the share count grows, because that net result is what the cautious price is betting against.
Catalysts
The first-quarter 2026 print was strong enough to lift guidance. Revenue rose 20.5% to $237.5 million with adjusted EBITDA of $63 million, and the rare-disease segment grew 36.9% to $94.4 million, led by Cortrophin Gel up 42.1% to $75.1 million and ILUVIEN up 19.5% to $19.3 million. The company raised full-year 2026 total net revenue guidance to $1.08 billion to $1.14 billion and reaffirmed Cortrophin Gel guidance of $540 million to $575 million. For discipline, the EBITDA and EPS figures management highlights are non-GAAP measures; the operating-margin and revenue figures are the GAAP-grounded numbers this report relies on.
The catalyst that matters most is Cortrophin's expansion, since it is the product carrying the growth story. Management is investing to capture the opportunity in acute gouty arthritis flares, an extension of the franchise that could lengthen the runway. The watch list follows directly: whether Cortrophin holds its 40%-plus growth and hits the reaffirmed full-year target, whether the generics segment's price erosion accelerates or stabilizes, and whether the share count keeps climbing, since dilution is the offset that determines how much of the revenue growth reaches per-share value.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Generics and Other (reported)
- AMRX (AMNEAL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- TEVA (TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- VTRS (Viatris Inc)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- PRGO (Perrigo Company plc)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Rare Disease and Brands (reported)
- CPRX (CATALYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SUPN (SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- HRMY (HARMONY BIOSCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- TVTX (TRAVERE THERAPEUTICS, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- KNSA (Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
ANI Q1 2026 results, 8-K · ANI Q1 2026 earnings call, May 2026