Amrize Ltd (AMRZ): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $43.82, Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) is priced for +20.6% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-25.

Generated: 2026-09-07 · Exported: 2026-09-09 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/AMRZ

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 11% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: n/a

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=13)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• Barely a year removed from Holcim, Amrize is still describing itself in the past tense of a carve-out, and the annual report says so directly: We have limited operating history as a standalone company.
• Aggregates and other construction materials is the largest line at 39% of revenue, with cement close behind at 37% and the roofing-and-insulation Building Envelope segment at 28%, which makes this both a quarry business and a building-products business in one wrapper.
• Second quarter results land on August 6, 2026, and the two things worth watching are whether Building Materials keeps expanding its margin and whether the newly authorized repurchase program actually starts drawing down the share count.

Bull Case

Cement and crushed stone are among the few products whose economics are decided by geography rather than by brand. A ton of aggregate is worth very little at the quarry gate and rather less than the cost of trucking it a hundred miles, so in practice every quarry owns a circle drawn around itself. That is why the competitor list is short at the top. Amrize names it plainly: Our principal competitors in the United States are Cemex, Buzzi-Unicem, Heidelberg Materials and CRH, as well as numerous local and regional players. The barrier is not technology and it is not capital. It is permitted reserves near where people are actually building, and nobody is issuing many new permits.

What the separation from Holcim produced is unusual for the sector: one company spanning the heavy end and the finished end of the same building. The larger part sells cement, aggregates and ready-mix into construction sites. The other part is a building-products business in its own right, since Our Building Envelope segment offers advanced roofing and wall systems, including single-ply membranes, insulation, shingles, sheathing, waterproofing and protective coatings, along with adhesives, tapes and sealants. Roofing does not behave like cement. Most of it is replacement work on buildings that already exist, which arrives whether or not anyone breaks ground on a new one.

The return data is where this gets interesting, because it is not yet flattering. Amrize earns a 12.1% operating margin. Two peers show what the same kind of assets can do. MLM runs a 22.1% operating margin. VMC, another aggregates-led peer, runs 20.6%. That gap is not proof the rock is worse. It is a mix-and-cost story: a heavier weighting to cement, which is more capital-hungry and more energy-exposed than aggregates, plus a cost base built for a division of a European parent rather than for a standalone North American operator. The first quarter as an independent company pushed in the right direction, with Building Materials revenue up 12.9% and margin expansion behind it.

Capital allocation began in the same quarter and began conventionally. The board declared a first quarterly dividend of $0.11 a share and authorized a $1.0 billion repurchase program. Against $27.2 billion of market value that authorization is not a gesture. It represents most of a year's free cash flow being pointed at the share count rather than at another acquisition, which for a serial acquirer's former subsidiary is a meaningful change of habit.

The bear objection is that none of this has been demonstrated by this management team in this configuration, and that objection is fair. What has been demonstrated is the asset base underneath it. Quarries and cement plants were assembled over decades, and they cannot be reproduced by anyone simply willing to spend money, because the binding constraint is permits and proximity rather than capital.

Bear Case

The most useful sentence in Amrize's first annual report as a public company is a disclaimer: We have limited operating history as a standalone company. A few quarters of independent results is not a track record. It is a sample. The price being paid for that sample assumes it is representative of the better part of the next decade.

At $49.25 the market pays about 25 times company-wide operating income. Growth alone cannot bridge a gap that size, because the growth rate in the arithmetic is already pinned at the fastest pace the business could fund out of its own cash generation. So the demand becomes persistence instead: that pace held for roughly eight and a half years. Of comparable fast-growing companies that faced the same test, only about 19% sustained it that long. This is not a rate problem. It is a stamina problem.

The methods used to value the business disagree more than usual, and the split is informative. Peer multiples and the growth-based cash-flow methods reach the price. The methods anchored on book value and on current earning power land at roughly a third of it. One figure explains the divide: return on equity of 5.9% against a cost of equity above nine. A business earning less on its book than shareholders require will always look expensive through an asset lens, and the bull case has to argue that the figure is temporarily depressed rather than structural.

Two disclosures complicate the temporarily-depressed story. The first is that this industry is cyclical by construction, which the company states without hedging: A majority of our revenues is from customers who are in industries and businesses that are cyclical in nature and subject to changes in general economic conditions. The second is that the roofing business, which is supposed to be the half that does not follow the construction cycle, went backwards last year. Building Envelope Segment Adjusted EBITDA decreased $38 million in 2025 , or 4.9% , compared to 2024, and the filing attributes the decline to lower volumes and pricing. Something close to a quarter of the company shrank while the price assumed a decade of compounding.

Leverage is moderate rather than dangerous, and that is the honest concession. Net debt of $5.38 billion is 3.97 times operating income, and interest is covered 6.3 times over. That balance sheet survives an ordinary downturn without drama. What it does not do is protect the multiple. If the runway shortens from eight-and-a-half years to four, the borrowings remain perfectly serviceable and the equity still reprices, because at 25 times operating income the overwhelming majority of the value sits in the years furthest out, and those are the years a shortened runway removes first.

Valuation

What $49.25 buys here is time rather than growth. The price works out to about 25 times company-wide operating income, and at that level the arithmetic stops resolving by asking for a faster growth rate, because the rate is already set at the ceiling the business could fund from its own operations. What it asks for instead is persistence. Comparable fast-growers have held that kind of pace for roughly eight and a half years only about 19% of the time.

The ways this business gets valued split into two camps, and the split is the information. Peer multiples land within about a quarter of the price. The growth-based cash-flow methods land within a few percent of it, but only by holding today's exit multiple flat all the way out, which is an assumption rather than a finding. The methods anchored on book value and on current earning power land at roughly a third of it. So the price is defensible on the forward frames and indefensible on the backward ones, which is the ordinary signature of a business the market believes sits near the bottom of its earnings cycle rather than the top.

The reported inputs are straightforward. Revenue of $11.15 billion, operating income of $1.36 billion, and a 12.1% operating margin. The mix behind that runs roughly three parts heavy materials to one part envelope: The proportion of revenues related to the Building Materials segment and Building Envelope segment was 72.1% and 27.9% , respectively, in 2025 , compared to 71.2% and 28.8% , respectively, in 2024. Cost of revenues rose only 1.7% on the year, so whatever pressure 2025 carried came from volumes and pricing rather than from input costs.

Against its cohort the picture is mixed in a way that is worth reading carefully. On the heavy-materials side the peer comparison is unflattering: CRH, the closest competitor by scale, earned a 14.1% operating margin last year. On the envelope side it runs the other way. OC, the largest peer in that group, ran a 0.7% operating margin, while AWI, a much smaller specialist peer, earned 25.9%. Amrize sits in the middle of a cohort whose two ends are very far apart, which is exactly what happens when one company owns a quarry business and a roofing business at the same time.

Solvency is the least interesting part of this story, and saying so is itself informative. Net debt of $5.38 billion is 3.97 times operating income, interest is covered 6.3 times over, and the business is not consuming cash. There is no refinancing cliff shaping the analysis and no dilution to clear, so the entire question rests on whether the operating line can climb toward what the price already assumes. The first independent quarter moved that way, with Building Materials revenue up 12.9%. One quarter is one quarter.

Catalysts

Second quarter results arrive after the U.S. market closes on August 6, 2026, with the call the following morning. The first quarter set the reference point: revenue grew 4.7% to $2.2 billion, and Building Materials carried it with revenue up 12.9% and margin expansion behind that.

Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance at that print, calling for revenue growth of 4% to 6% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 8% to 11%, with the PB Materials acquisition named as a driver of the earnings half. The distinction between the two ranges is the part that matters. Guidance that puts earnings growth meaningfully ahead of revenue growth is guidance for margin repair, and margin repair is the specific thing the current price needs to see happen year after year.

Capital return started in the same quarter, which for a company this new is its own signal. The board declared a first quarterly dividend of $0.11 a share and authorized a $1.0 billion share repurchase program. Whether that authorization converts into an actual falling share count is worth tracking, because a buyback announcement and a buyback are different events, and only one of them shows up in per-share results.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Building Materials (reported)

• CRH (CRH public limited company)
• FY2025 10-K: …materials, products and services for the construction and maintenance of public infrastructure and commercial and residential buildings in North America. The primary materials produced by this segment include aggregates, cementitious materials, readymixed concrete and asphalt. This segment also provides paving and…
• FY2025 10-K: …the use of recycled materials in our paving services, thereby reducing waste, emissions and energy consumption. Together with our Essential Materials businesses, we have developed our roads offering to provide customers with quality, flexibility, speed, expertise and convenience through our deep market knowledge and…
• EXP (EAGLE MATERIALS INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and includes a provision for probable losses based on historical write-offs, adjusted for current economic trends in the construction industry, and a specific reserve for accounts deemed at risk. We have no significant credit risk concentration among our diversified customer bases. Bad debt expense was approximatel y…
• FY2025 10-K: …Since 2012, we have invested approximately $2.6 billion to expand the Heavy Materials sector. These investments have more than doubled our U.S. cement capacity. Growth in the Heavy Materials sector has been achieved mainly through acquisitions, which have expanded our geographic footprint, resulting in a contiguous…
• MLM (MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …reduce construction activity, restrict the demand for our products and impede our ability to efficiently transport material. Severe events can close or damage transportation networks or constrain logistics capacity, slowing our ability to move materials and increasing delivered costs. Adverse weather conditions also…
• FY2025 10-K: …the conduct of the Company's business as a whole. Customers The Company's products are sold principally to commercial customers in private industry. Although large amounts of construction materials are used in public works projects, relatively insignificant sales are made directly to federal, state, county or…
• VMC (VULCAN MATERIALS COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …and Superior Ready Mix, L.P. (Superior), which solidified our position as the leading aggregates producer in Southern California. We also completed two bolt-on acquisitions during 2024 in Alabama and Texas, strengthening our position in two of our top 10 revenue states. From 2023 to 2025, we invested $2,310.6 million…
• FY2025 10-K: …sand and gravel, sand, and other aggregates) and related products and services. During 2025, the Aggregates segment principally served markets in twenty-three states, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Washington D.C., and the local markets surrounding our operations in Freeport, Bahamas; British Columbia, Canada; and…
• USLM (UNITED STATES LIME & MINERALS INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …sufficient production levels and product quality while controlling costs. Adverse weather conditions, such as ice storms, freezing weather, hurricanes, tornadoes, excessive rains, and flooding, generally reduce the demand for lime and limestone products supplied to construction-related customers that account for a…
• FY2025 10-K: …selected by the Company. The credit agreement also provides for a $ 10,000 letter of credit sublimit under the Revolving Facility. The Revolving Facility and any incremental loans mature on August 3, 2028. Interest rates on the Revolving Facility are, at the Company's option, SOFR, plus a SOFR adjustment rate of 0.10…
• MDU (MDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …mdu:NaturalGasDistributionMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000067716 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember mdu:ResidentialUtilitySalesMember mdu:PipelineandMidstreamMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000067716 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember mdu:ResidentialUtilitySalesMember us-gaap:CorporateAndOtherMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31…
• FY2025 10-K: …see Item 8 - Note 11. Dividend restrictions For information on the Company's dividends and dividend restrictions, see Item 8 - Note 11. MDU Resources Group, Inc. Form 10-K 57 Index Part II Material cash requirements For more information on the Company's contractual obligations on long-term debt, operating leases and…

Building Envelope (reported)

• OC (Owens Corning)
• FY2025 10-K: …and other product and market focused research and development centers in various locations. As of December 31, 2025, we operated in 143 manufacturing facilities, of which 103 were owned. The following table summarizes manufacturing facilities by reportable segment and geographical region: Roofing Insulation Doors…
• FY2025 10-K: …reporting units. Prior to reorganizing the reportable segments and integrating portions of the former Composites reportable segment, but after allocating Goodwill to discontinued operations, the Company tested the Goodwill for the Roofing, Insulation and Composites reporting units. As a result of this test, we…
• AWI (ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …produce goods for inventory and sell on credit to our customers. Generally, we believe our distributors and home center customers carry inventory as needed to meet local or rapid delivery requirements. We sell our products to select, pre-approved customers using customary trade terms that allow for payment in the…
• FY2025 10-K: , based in Albemarle, North Carolina. Insolcorp develops, tests and manufactures energy saving products deployed in building and roofing installations. The acquired operations, assets and liabilities of Insolcorp are included in our Mineral Fiber segment. In July 2023, we acquired all of the issued and outstanding…
• CSW (CSW INDUSTRIALS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …which enhances our ability to both "pull" demand from the end-user and "push" demand to distributor partners. Specialized Reliability Solutions' customers include petrochemical facilities, industrial manufacturers, construction companies, utilities, plant maintenance customers, building contractors and rail and…
• FY2025 10-K: …in our existing end markets where we can drive revenue growth, improved profitability and increased cash flow. 6 Table of Contents On May 1, 2025, we acquired 100% of the outstanding equity of Aspen Manufacturing, LLC, based in Humble, Texas, whose current product suite includes a vast range of high-quality…
• IBP (Installed Building Products, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …trade accounts receivable are from entities engaged in residential and commercial construction. We perform periodic credit evaluations of our customers' financial condition. The general credit risk of our counterparties is not considered to be significant. In addition, no individual customer made up more than 3% of…
• FY2025 10-K: …not complete at the reporting date, we recognize revenue over time utilizing a cost-to-cost input method. When this method is used, we estimate the costs to complete individual contracts and record as revenue that portion of the total contract price that is considered complete based on the relationship of costs…
• BLD (TopBuild Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …levels of demand. For further discussion on our cash flows and liquidity, see Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Liquidity and Capital Resources . ​ Major Customers ​ We have a diversified portfolio of customers. Our top customer accounted for approximately…
• FY2025 10-K: CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 1. SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES Basis of Presentation. TopBuild is a Delaware corporation and trades on the NYSE under the symbol "BLD." We report our business in two segments: Installation Services and Specialty Distribution. Our Installation Services segment primarily…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.