Amrize Ltd (AMRZ): what the price requires

At today's price, Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~8.1 years. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/AMRZ

Headline

FieldValue
TickerAMRZ
CompanyAmrize Ltd
Current price$49.07/sh
CompositionCement (Building Materials) 37% / Aggregates and other construction materials (Building Materials) 39% / Interproduct revenues (Building Materials) -5% / Building Envelope 28%

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin needed18.6%
Operating margin today12.1%
Margin expansion implied+6.5pp
Must persist for8.1y
Multiple paid24x operating income

The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 11.3% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~1.8 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~22.9%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: elevated

ReferenceValue
cohort percentile (of 74 peers)76
sustained it ~8.1 years at this level20%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset2.20x4expensive
Earnings2.59x2expensive
Relative0.97x3justifies
Growth1.05x3expensive

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=12)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$47.471.03xyesFCF base $1.3B, growth 4% (input: historical growth), terminal g 3.5%, WACC 7.7%, 5yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$46.741.05xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 9.7x / 11.7x / 13.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr
Relative ValuationRelative$44.841.09xyesP/E 18x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 15.2x / 18.0x / 20.8x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 12x
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$22.592.17xyesBV/sh $23.68, ROE (TTM) 8.8%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$22.072.22xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$35.711.37xyesRev $11.9B, growth 4% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.9x / 2.3x / 2.6x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Growth-Adjusted P/ERelative——no—
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings——no—
Residual IncomeAsset$21.982.23xyesBV $23.68 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 8.8% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 5.7%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$33.371.47xyes√(22.5 × EPS $2.09 × BVPS $23.68) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$50.790.97xyesEBITDA $2.78B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$16.313.01xyesFCF $1319.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings——no—
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$1.7528.04xyesEPS $2.09 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset——no—
P/Sales SectorRelative$53.830.91xyesRevenue $11.91B × sector P/S 2.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelative——no—
Earnings YieldEarnings$22.592.17xyesEPS $2.09 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$5.4b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)5.02x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)3.97x
Interest coverage6.3x
Burning cashno

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

The moat in heavy building materials is geographic, and Amrize has it at national scale. Cement and aggregates are low-value-per-ton products where the economics are dominated by the cost of moving them, so whoever owns the quarry or plant nearest the job site wins on freight before price even enters the conversation. Amrize describes itself as "a building solutions company focused on the North American market, offering customers a broad range of advanced buil"ding products from over 1,000 sites, and that footprint, delivering to every U.S. state and Canadian province, is exactly the kind of distributed asset base that is nearly impossible to replicate. New entrants cannot simply build a competing quarry next to every market; the permitting, the reserves, and the local relationships took decades to assemble.

The scale shows up in the margin and the cash generation. On revenue of $11.8 billion the business delivered $3.0 billion of adjusted EBITDA, with management citing infrastructure demand, an improving commercial market, and continued positive pricing. Positive pricing in a heavy-materials business is the tell that the geographic moat is real: in a commodity with no pricing power, prices track input costs, but a producer that can raise price ahead of cost is one whose local market position lets it. The filing names the competitors plainly, "Cemex, Buzzi-Unicem, Heidelberg Materials and CRH," a short list of large players, which is itself a sign of a consolidated industry where rational pricing is more likely than in a fragmented one.

The demand backdrop favors the bet the price is making. Amrize's products are, in its own words, "essential to commercial a"nd infrastructure construction, and U.S. infrastructure spending has been a multi-year tailwind for cement and aggregates volumes. The building-envelope segment, about a quarter of the business, adds higher-value branded products from foundation to rooftop, broadening the mix beyond raw materials toward solutions that carry better margins. For a newly independent company, having both the heavy-materials moat and a growing value-added segment is the combination that can drive the margin expansion the price is counting on.

Bear Case

The balance sheet is where a freshly spun-off cyclical is most exposed, and Amrize carries the debt the separation left it. Net debt sits near $5.4 billion against trailing operating income of about $1.8 billion, roughly 2.9 times, with interest coverage around 4.5 times. That is not a crisis-level load in a good year, but it is meaningful for a company whose revenues, by its own description, "participate in cyclical industries and regional markets, which are subject to industry downturns." The danger is the interaction: in a construction downturn, cement and aggregates volumes fall and pricing softens at the same time, compressing the operating income that the fixed debt service is measured against. Leverage that looks comfortable at the top of the cycle is the variable that bites at the bottom, and a newly independent company has no long track record of managing it through one.

The demand side is entirely cyclical and outside management's control. The filing is direct that "demand for our construction products and materials is directly related to the level of activity in the construction industry, which includes residential, commercial and infrastructure construction." Residential and commercial construction move with rates and the economy, and even infrastructure, the current tailwind, depends on government funding cycles that can stall. A company priced for a decade of sustained growth is most vulnerable to the simple fact that construction has always come in waves, and the current commercial recovery is no guarantee of the next one.

The valuation is the bear's strongest single point, because the price asks for a lot. At about 27 times operating income, the price requires both an operating-margin step-up from roughly 15.5% toward the high teens and that elevated growth to persist for the better part of a decade, a path only about 16% of comparable fast-growers have sustained. The asset-value and earnings-power lenses both read the price as expensive, which says little of the current valuation is supported by what the company owns or earns today. For a cyclical building-materials business carrying spinoff-era leverage, being priced for sustained margin expansion through a full construction cycle is the kind of assumption that a single downturn can undo.

Valuation

At the current price the market pays about 27 times company-wide operating income, and inverting that reveals a demanding, two-part bet: operating margin has to climb from roughly 15.5% today toward the high teens, and growth has to hold near its self-funding ceiling for about a decade. Against history, only about 16% of comparable fast-growers sustained that pace for nearly ten years, which is why this reads as an elevated assumption rather than a comfortable one. For a cyclical building-materials company, asking for sustained margin expansion across what is likely to include a construction downturn is the heart of the demand the price is making.

The methods we use to triangulate point the same way. The asset-value lens reads the price well above what the plants, quarries, and reserves justify, and the earnings-power lens, capitalizing today's operating earnings without crediting future margin gains, reads it as similarly expensive. Only the relative-multiple and forward-growth lenses reach the price, the latter by crediting the margin and growth path the inversion describes. When the static methods say expensive and only the forward-looking ones defend the level, the price is a durability-and-margin bet with little asset or earnings floor beneath it. That is a coherent read of a heavy-materials business priced for its best-case operating trajectory rather than its current economics.

Solvency frames the downside and belongs in the close. Net debt near $5.4 billion, about 2.9 times operating income with coverage around 4.5 times, is manageable while the cycle cooperates but is the amplifier if it does not, because the debt does not shrink when construction slows. As a 2025 spinoff, Amrize has not yet demonstrated how it manages that leverage through a downturn, which is the one thing the filings cannot show. The decisive fact is not the growth rate alone; it is that a cyclical company carrying separation-era debt is priced for a smooth decade of margin expansion, and construction has rarely offered a smooth decade.

Catalysts

The defining event in Amrize's recent history is its own creation. Holcim completed the full spin-off of its North American business in 2025 through a one-for-one share distribution, listing Amrize on the New York Stock Exchange and the SIX Swiss Exchange. As an independent company, Amrize closed its first reported year with revenue of $11.8 billion and $3.0 billion of adjusted EBITDA, citing infrastructure demand, an improving commercial market, and continued positive pricing across cement and aggregates.

The forward catalysts are the construction and infrastructure cycle and the company's execution as a standalone business. Volumes and pricing in cement and aggregates track U.S. infrastructure funding and the commercial and residential construction markets, so the cadence of that demand is the swing factor on whether the margin-expansion path the price assumes materializes. For a company barely a year into independence, the items to watch are straightforward: whether positive pricing holds as input costs move, whether the building-envelope segment keeps lifting the mix toward higher-margin products, and how management handles the spinoff-era debt as it reports its first full cycle of standalone results.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Building Materials (reported)

Building Envelope (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

Amrize FY2025 results, 8-K · Holcim spin-off completion, 2025

View the full interactive AMRZ report on boothcheck