ALAMOS GOLD INC. (AGI): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $37.46, ALAMOS GOLD INC. (AGI) is priced for +5.5% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-25.

Generated: 2026-09-07 · Exported: 2026-09-09 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/AGI

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 6: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.3% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=17)

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• The Island Gold District supplies roughly 46% of revenue, ahead of Young-Davidson near 30% and Mulatos near 27%, and it is the asset the entire growth plan runs through.
• Building costs more than the business currently earns: 2026 capital spending is guided at 850 to 940 million dollars against first-quarter free cash flow of 101.7 million dollars, with Lynn Lake carrying 871 million dollars of remaining initial capital.
• Second-quarter results on July 29, 2026 have to begin closing a wide gap, since first-quarter all-in sustaining costs ran 1,862 dollars an ounce against full-year guidance of 1,500 to 1,600 dollars.

Bull Case

A gold miner's advantage is almost never the gold. It is the geometry of getting it out, and at Alamos that geometry is about to change. Sinking of the Island Gold shaft reached its planned depth of 1,381 metres in the first quarter of 2026, with commissioning expected in early 2027. A shaft replaces the slow, diesel-burning business of trucking ore up a ramp with hoisting it straight to surface. The same orebody, the same grades, a materially lower cost per tonne. Island Gold District already supplies about 46% of revenue, more than Young-Davidson at roughly 30% or Mulatos at roughly 27%, so an improvement there moves the whole company rather than a corner of it.

That is the difference between growth a miner has to buy and growth it already owns. Company guidance calls for 570,000 to 650,000 ounces in 2026, rising to 46% production growth by 2028 with all-in sustaining costs falling nearly 20%, and roughly one million ounces a year by 2030 as the Island Gold District expansion and Lynn Lake both come in. Nothing in that requires a takeover, a financing, or a discovery. It requires construction crews to finish what is already permitted and paid for in part.

The construction risk is real, and it is the honest counter to this case. NEM's own annual report puts the industry version of it plainly: development projects could experience unexpected problems and delays during permitting, development, construction and mine start-up. What separates this program from the generic version is where it sits. Ontario, Manitoba and Mexico are jurisdictions with functioning mining codes and no history of surprising foreign owners, which removes the category of risk that decides most gold project outcomes before the geology gets a vote.

Capital discipline shows up in the small print. The quarterly dividend was raised 60% to 4 cents a share alongside first-quarter results, at a moment when nearly every dollar of cash flow has a construction site waiting for it. Companies mid-build usually do the opposite. Revenue grew about 23% over the trailing year, and the balance sheet still carries net cash rather than net borrowings.

The strongest part of the case, though, is what today's price does not ask for. At $29.59 the market pays roughly eleven times the operating profit reported in the last annual filing, and the trajectory that fits that price is a decline of about 2.3% a year for five years. The company's own guidance is for production to grow 46% by 2028. Those two statements cannot both be right. A buyer here is not paying for the plan; they are paying a price that works if the plan quietly fails, which is an unusual place to start.

Bear Case

The balance sheet looks clean and is carrying more weight than it appears. Net cash sat near 423 million dollars at the last annual balance sheet date and 459.5 million dollars at the end of the first quarter, with total liquidity around 1.2 billion dollars. Now set the construction schedule beside it. Capital spending for 2026 alone is guided at 850 to 940 million dollars excluding exploration, and Lynn Lake still carries 871 million dollars of initial capital from 2026 onward after its budget rose for a larger mill and a construction delay caused by the 2025 Manitoba wildfires. The program is larger than the cash pile. What actually funds it is the gold price.

Which is the problem, because the gold price stopped cooperating. Bullion has fallen roughly 28% from the record set on January 29, 2026 to near 4,038 dollars an ounce by mid-July, its worst quarterly decline since 2013. The first quarter realized 4,829 dollars an ounce and still produced only 101.7 million dollars of free cash flow, because 183.5 million dollars went into the ground as capital spending in the same three months. Run that quarter again at a materially lower metal price and the free cash flow line goes to zero or through it, with the construction commitments unchanged.

The operating gap is wider than the headline suggests. First-quarter all-in sustaining costs came in at 1,862 dollars an ounce against full-year guidance of 1,500 to 1,600, and production of 123,900 ounces represented barely a fifth of the low end of the full-year range. Both are explained by the same thing, a year designed to be back-weighted around the shaft ramp-up, but that explanation is also the risk: the entire 2026 guidance rests on a second half that has not happened yet, delivered by a project in commissioning. NEM's annual report describes what usually intervenes: projects could experience unexpected problems and delays during permitting, development, construction and mine start-up.

The valuation carries the same dependency. The methods that reach today's price are the ones that credit the forward plan, while the approaches that simply capitalize the cash the business currently produces land far below it, because a company mid-build produces very little spare cash by construction. That is not an accounting quirk. It is the actual position: today's business, valued on today's output, does not support today's price, and the gap is the expansion.

Nothing here threatens survival. There is no maturity wall, no covenant to breach, no forced equity issue in sight. The fragility is subtler and more common: a builder at a falling metal price eventually has to choose between finishing on schedule and keeping the balance sheet intact, and the choice usually arrives at the worst point in the cycle rather than the best.

Valuation

Today's price and the company's own plan tell opposite stories, and reconciling them is the whole valuation question. At $29.59 the market pays roughly eleven times the operating profit reported in the last annual filing, and the trajectory that fits that multiple is operating profit falling about 2.3% a year for five years. Management guides to 46% production growth by 2028 at nearly 20% lower all-in sustaining costs. The market is not pricing that plan. It is pricing a slow fade.

The methods used to triangulate the shares line up along that same fault. The cash-flow and growth approaches land essentially where the stock trades, because they credit the forward production profile. The price sits about 17% above where the peer-multiple methods land and about 30% above the asset-value methods. Furthest away are the earnings-power methods, with the price roughly two and a half times where they come out, and the reason is mechanical rather than mysterious: those approaches capitalize the free cash the business currently generates, and a company spending 850 to 940 million dollars on construction this year generates very little of it. Value the company as it stands and you get one answer. Value the company it is building and you get another. The price sits with the second.

The implied fade should be held loosely. Each percentage point added to the assumed cost of capital moves that implied trajectory by roughly five points, so the number describes a direction rather than a measurement, and small changes in the discount assumption swing it more than any operating variable does.

Against the wider gold cohort the shares sit in the lower half of the peer multiple range, which is a reasonable place for a mid-sized producer whose growth is still in the form of concrete and steel rather than ounces. Comparisons within that cohort are worth treating carefully; CDE, for instance, ran a 38.7% operating margin over the trailing year on revenue that more than doubled, and neither figure is a comment on Alamos so much as a reminder that everything in this sector moved at once when the metal did.

The balance sheet is the reason none of this is urgent. Net cash near 423 million dollars, no interest burden worth discussing, and roughly 1.2 billion dollars of liquidity at the end of the first quarter mean the construction program can absorb a weak year without a financing. What it cannot absorb indefinitely is a metal price that stays down through commissioning, and that is the variable the price is silently taking a view on.

Catalysts

The operational milestone worth tracking is already half-complete. Shaft sinking at Island Gold reached its planned depth of 1,381 metres during the first quarter of 2026, with commissioning expected in early 2027. Everything in the cost guidance for the next two years runs through that piece of infrastructure working as designed.

Second-quarter results are due after the close on July 29, 2026, with the call the following morning. Three lines matter. The realized price per ounce, against 4,829 dollars in the first quarter. All-in sustaining costs, which ran 1,862 dollars an ounce in the first quarter against full-year guidance of 1,500 to 1,600 dollars. And the pace of capital spending, with Lynn Lake alone planned at 140 to 160 million dollars for 2026. Production for the year was always designed to be second-half weighted, so the question is not whether the first half looked light but whether the ramp is arriving on schedule.

The metal supplies the backdrop and, for a company in the middle of a build, most of the funding. Gold has fallen about 28% from its January 29, 2026 record to near 4,038 dollars an ounce in mid-July, the sharpest quarterly decline since 2013, on rising bond yields and a firmer dollar. A producer with a finished mine can wait out a move like that. A producer with 850 to 940 million dollars of capital to place this year has less room to wait.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Core business (reported)

• NEM (NEWMONT CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …obstacles to our ability to conduct our operations and develop our projects, which may result in a material adverse impact on our business, financial position, results of operations, and growth prospects. Further, the interest rate of Newmont's $1 billion aggregate principal amount of 2.6% Sustainability-Linked…
• FY2025 10-K: …or renewing collective bargaining or certain labor agreements, workforce unionization, or demand for profit sharing; • Disadvantages of competing against companies from countries that are not subject to the rigorous laws and regulations of the U.S. or other jurisdictions, including without limitation, the U.S.…
• AEM (AGNICO EAGLE MINES LIMITED)
• FY2025 40-F: …are incurred by the Company; ● estimates of future capital expenditures, exploration expenditures, development expenditures and other cash needs, and expectations as to the funding thereof; ● estimated timing and conclusions of studies, analyses and evaluations undertaken by the Company or others; ● statements…
• FY2025 40-F: For a reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable financial information presented in the consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with IFRS, and for an explanation of how management uses these measures and why management believes them to be useful to investors, please see the…
• B (BARRICK MINING CORP)
• FY2025 40-F: …the registrant was required to submit such files). Yes x No ¨ Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act. Emerging growth company ¨ If an emerging growth company that prepares its financial statements in accordance with U.S. GAAP, indicate…
• FY2025 40-F: …entitled "Ratings" in Exhibit 99.1) is incorporated by reference into Barrick's Registration Statements on Form F-3 (File No. 333-206417), Form S-8 (File Nos. 333-121500, 333-131715, 333-135769, 333-224560) and Form F-10 (File No. 333-287021). SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Exchange Act, the…
• GFI (Gold Fields Limited)
• FY2025 20-F: …fatalities at our operations this year. Operationally, we delivered production and cost within guidance, reflecting improved consistency and predictability across the business, supported by stronger operational discipline and enhanced performance management. At the same time, cost pressures remained elevated across…
• FY2025 20-F: …growth through Mineral Resource replacement, supported by detailed consideration of LOM capital requirements • Implementing comprehensive near-mine exploration programmes across operations, with performance monitored during quarterly reviews • Consistently replacing depleted Mineral Reserves through focused efforts,…
• KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP)
• FY2025 40-F: …report on Form 40-F, include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to our guidance for production, cost guidance, including production costs of sales, all-in sustaining cost of sales, and capital expenditures; anticipated returns of capital to shareholders, including the declaration, payment, increase and…
• FY2025 40-F: . Emerging Growth Company ☐ If an emerging growth company that prepares its financial statements in accordance with U.S. GAAP, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards† provided pursuant to…
• HMY (HARMONY GOLD MINING COMPANY LIMITED)
• FY2025 20-F: …- Holistic health and wellness " on pages 141 to 153 . Mining companies face strong competition and industry consolidation The mining industry is competitive in all of its phases. We compete with other mining companies and individuals for specialised equipment, components and supplies necessary for exploration and…
• FY2025 20-F: . These factors could materially and adversely affect our financial and operating results. We compete with mining and other companies for key human resources with critical skills and our inability to retain key personnel could have an adverse e ffect on our business The risk of losing senior management or being unable…
• CDE (COEUR MINING, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …liabilities at the date of its financial statements, the allocation of fair value to assets and liabilities assumed in connection with business combinations, the reported amounts of revenue and expenses during the reporting period, and mined reserves. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ from…
• FY2025 10-K: …the State of Delaware and changed its name to Coeur Mining, Inc. Coeur's corporate headquarters are in Chicago, Illinois. NOTE 2 - SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES Risks and uncertainties As a mining company, the revenue, profitability and future rate of growth of the Company are substantially dependent on…
• BVN (BUENAVENTURA MINING CO INC)
• FY2025 20-F: …services. - Rental of mining concessions (until July 2024). - Holding of investment in shares. - Industrial activities. - Purchase and sale of mineral (Trading). F-93 Table of Contents Notes to the consolidated financial statements (continued) ​ The accounting policies used by the Group in reporting segments…
• FY2025 20-F: …borrowing costs. Inventories are classified as current or non - current depending on the length of time that management estimates will be needed to reach the production state of concentrate extraction for each mining unit. The current portion of the inventories is determined based on the expected amounts to be…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.