ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC. (ADMA): what the price requires

At today's price, ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC. (ADMA) is priced for +6.7% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/ADMA

Headline

FieldValue
TickerADMA
CompanyADMA BIOLOGICS, INC.
Current price$8.97/sh
CompositionADMA BioManufacturing 97% / Plasma Collection Centers 3%

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin needed6.5%
Operating margin today38.5%
Margin compression implied-32.0pp
Implied growth6.7%
Multiple paid11x operating income

The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 4, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.8% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~4.6pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~-0.6%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

ReferenceValue
cohort percentile (of 113 peers)11
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value, while earnings-power lands below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset1.20x5expensive
Earnings1.96x5expensive
Relative1.06x5expensive
Growth0.91x3justifies

Families that justify the price: Asset, Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=18)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$11.520.78xyesFCF base $0.1B, growth 11% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.5%, 6yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$9.900.91xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 8.0x / 10.0x / 12.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr
Relative ValuationRelative$16.410.55xyesP/E 24x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 20.0x / 24.0x / 28.0x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 16x
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$7.451.20xyesBV/sh $1.63, ROE (TTM) 42.4%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$18.090.50xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$7.191.25xyesRev $0.5B, growth 11% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 3.5x / 4.2x / 4.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$8.161.10xyesEPS $0.68, growth 8% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=1.57 (Overvalued)
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$2.014.46xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.07B × (1−21%) / WACC 8.5% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset$11.870.76xyesBV $1.63 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 42.4% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$4.991.80xyes√(22.5 × EPS $0.68 × BVPS $1.63) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$14.570.62xyesEBITDA $0.22B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$4.571.96xyesFCF $107.9M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings$3.592.50xyesSBC-adj FCF $0.09B (FCF $0.11B − SBC $0.02B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$14.290.63xyesEPS $0.68 × (8.5 + 2×8.3%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$1.924.67xyesBV $1.63 × (ROIC 10.1% / WACC 8.5%)
P/Sales SectorRelative$8.501.06xyesRevenue $0.51B × sector P/S 4.0x
PEG Fair ValueRelative$8.451.06xyesEPS $0.68 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 8.3% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 12.4x
Earnings YieldEarnings$7.351.22xyesEPS $0.68 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$58.7m
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)0.40x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)0.31x
Interest coverage24.7x
Share count CAGR (dilution)5.2%
Burning cashno

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

The trajectory is the bull case. ADMA spent years as a development-stage plasma company that consumed cash; it now earns money, and a lot of it. The trailing operating margin is above 40%, the return on equity is above 40%, and the business is throwing off positive free cash flow, a transformation from biotech promise to actual profitability. The engine of that turn is ASCENIV, the company's specialty immune globulin: full-year 2025 ASCENIV revenue grew to $363 million, up about 51% year over year, and it kept growing 28% in the most recent quarter. A company whose lead product is compounding at that rate while the whole business turns cash-generative is a different animal than the speculative biotech the ticker once represented.

The structural reason the margins are real is vertical integration into plasma. ADMA collects its own plasma through its BioCenters network and manufactures the finished biologics itself, which means it controls the scarce raw material that constrains the whole immune-globulin industry. The company's filing lays out ambitious supply-backed revenue targets, projecting "annual revenues greater than $635 million in 2026 and $775 million in 2027," and it grounds the demand case in real clinical evidence for ASCENIV in treating patients with primary immunodeficiency. Controlling both the plasma input and the manufacturing output is what lets ADMA capture the full margin rather than buying expensive plasma on the open market.

The balance sheet has caught up with the operations. Net debt is only about $59 million, a quarter of a year's operating income, and interest is covered nearly thirty times over, so the company is no longer one financing away from trouble. With ROE above 40% on a tiny book value, the economics of the franchise are clearly strong; the question is durability, not viability. The bull case is a newly profitable, vertically integrated immune-globulin maker with a fast-growing lead product, a controlled plasma supply, and a balance sheet that finally matches the business, priced at a modest multiple of the operating income it now actually earns.

Bear Case

The price leans on revenue streams that are not yet secured, and the most fragile of them is the one the company just got less certain about. ADMA's own filing carries revenue targets of more than $635 million in 2026 and $775 million in 2027, but management has since withdrawn its longer-term guidance, citing evolving competitive dynamics in U.S. plasma products and immune globulin. The single most exposed assumption is that ASCENIV keeps compounding fast enough to outrun the decline elsewhere in the portfolio: in the most recent quarter ASCENIV grew 28% while BIVIGAM revenue fell 54%, so total revenue was roughly flat. When one product is shrinking by half and the lead product carries the whole growth story, the business becomes a bet on a single molecule holding its momentum.

The competitive structure is unforgiving. ADMA competes against the giants of plasma, its filing names the U.S. market as "consisting of: CSL Behring, Grifols, Takeda and ADMA Biologics," three multinationals with far larger collection networks and balance sheets, plus "smaller entities" in local areas. In a market where the constraint is plasma supply and the competitors are larger and better capitalized, a small player faces pressure on both ends: securing enough plasma and defending price against rivals who can outspend it on collection capacity. The filing also warns that ADMA's own collection economics can be hurt "by the entry of competitive plasma centers into regions where ADMA BioCenters operates."

The operational risk is specific to the product. Plasma is a biological raw material with strict compliance rules, and the filing flags that if non-compliance is found, ADMA may "be unable to use and may ultimately destroy plasma collected from that center, which would be recorded as a charge to cost of product revenue." A single facility or collection issue can hit both supply and margin at once. Layer in a share count that has been rising about 5% a year, diluting holders even as the company grows, and the valuation gives only modest cushion: the price already credits continued growth, and with the long-term guidance withdrawn, the bear case is simply that the durability of ASCENIV's lead and ADMA's plasma supply is less certain than the recent numbers made it look.

Valuation

ADMA is now valued like a profitable company rather than a clinical-stage hopeful, which is itself the story. At $8.29 (June 27, 2026) the price works out to about 11 times company-wide operating income, which inverts to roughly 4.1% annual operating growth over five years, an undemanding assumption for a business whose lead product has been growing far faster than that. The reason the implied growth is so modest is that the price is not extrapolating ASCENIV's recent 28-to-51% growth; it is paying for a much gentler path, which leaves room if the momentum holds and exposes the downside if it does not.

The families of methods are broadly supportive, with one telling exception. The asset-value methods, working off a tiny book value but an enormous return on equity, support the price, as do the peer-multiple and growth lenses. The exception is the earnings-power method, which capitalizes a five-year-average normalized operating income with no growth and calls the stock expensive, and that disagreement is informative: it is the method that ignores ASCENIV's recent ramp and values ADMA on its longer, lower-margin history, so it flags exactly the risk that the recent profitability is young and not yet proven durable.

Solvency is a clear strength and removes the old existential risk. Net debt of about $59 million is roughly a quarter of a year's operating income, interest is covered nearly thirty times, and the company generates positive free cash flow, so the balance sheet that once defined the bear case no longer does. The remaining dilution risk shows up in a share count rising about 5% a year, which spreads the growing earnings across more shares. The decisive question is not survival, ADMA is plainly self-funding now, but durability: whether ASCENIV's lead and the controlled plasma supply sustain the high margins long enough to justify paying for a profitable franchise rather than a transient one, a question the withdrawn long-term guidance has made harder to answer with confidence.

Catalysts

The defining recent event was a guidance change in tone. ADMA projects full-year 2026 revenue of roughly $635 million, adjusted net income near $255 million, and adjusted EBITDA around $360 million, but it withdrew its longer-term outlook to reflect evolving competitive dynamics in U.S. plasma products and immune globulin. Pulling long-term guidance while keeping near-term targets is a signal worth weighing: it says management still sees a strong 2026 but is less willing to commit to the multi-year ramp it previously laid out.

The product mix is the catalyst underneath the numbers. First-quarter 2026 total revenue was $114.5 million, roughly flat year over year, with ASCENIV up 28% offset by BIVIGAM down 54%. ASCENIV's continued growth is the bull data point, and BIVIGAM's decline is the bear one, so each quarter's split between the two products is the cleanest read on whether the lead product can carry the company as the older one fades.

Sentiment has cooled even as the targets stay above the price. The covering analysts lean Buy with a mean target above the current level, but the recent direction of travel is lower: Canaccord cut its target to $18 from $21 while keeping a Buy rating, reflecting the same competitive and guidance concerns. The events that matter from here are the ASCENIV growth rate and any update on the withdrawn long-term targets, because together they determine whether the market re-rates ADMA as a durable specialty-pharma franchise or a single-product growth story facing larger competitors.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

ADMA BioManufacturing / Plasma Collection Centers (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

company FY2026 outlook, 2026 · ADMA Q1 2026 results · Canaccord note and analyst consensus, 2026

View the full interactive ADMA report on boothcheck