ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC (ACAD): what the price requires
At today's price, ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC (ACAD) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~10.2 years. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/ACAD
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | ACAD |
| Company | ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC |
| Current price | $25.52/sh |
| Composition | NUPLAZID 63% / DAYBUE 37% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 4.9% |
| Operating margin today | 7.8% |
| Margin compression implied | -2.9pp |
| Must persist for | 10.2y |
| Multiple paid | 45x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 5, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 9.8% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.1 years.
How unusual the bet is: high
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| cohort percentile (of 113 peers) | 89 |
| sustained it ~10 years at this level | 14% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by asset-based and relative-multiple value, while earnings-power lands below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 0.90x | 4 | justifies |
| Earnings | 2.10x | 4 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.86x | 5 | justifies |
| Growth | 1.46x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Asset, Relative Families that call it expensive: Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=16)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $13.21 | 1.93x | yes | FCF base $0.1B, growth 10% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.1%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $20.25 | 1.26x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 50.1x / 52.1x / 54.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $29.64 | 0.86x | yes | P/E 19.09x (blended: static sector reference 24x + trailing (TTM) 12x), scenarios: 15.8x / 19.1x / 22.4x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 26.82x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $23.51 | 1.09x | yes | BV/sh $7.23, ROE (TTM) 30.1%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $43.80 | 0.58x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $17.42 | 1.46x | yes | Rev $1.1B, growth 10% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 3.3x / 4.0x / 4.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $52.70 | 0.48x | yes | EPS $2.21, growth 24% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.49 (Undervalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | $35.87 | 0.71x | yes | BV $7.23 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 30.1% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $18.96 | 1.35x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $2.21 × BVPS $7.23) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $8.56 | 2.98x | yes | EBITDA $0.08B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $8.15 | 3.13x | yes | FCF $113.6M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $4.68 | 5.45x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.06B (FCF $0.11B − SBC $0.06B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $71.31 | 0.36x | yes | EPS $2.21 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $25.37 | 1.01x | yes | Revenue $1.10B × sector P/S 4.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $79.06 | 0.32x | yes | EPS $2.21 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 23.8% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 35.8x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $23.89 | 1.07x | yes | EPS $2.21 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $851.5m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | -11.26x (net cash) |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | -10.28x (net cash) |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 0.8% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- Acadia is a two-drug commercial biopharma: NUPLAZID for Parkinson's disease psychosis (about 63% of revenue) and DAYBUE for Rett syndrome (about 37%). Q1 2026 total revenue was $268 million, and the company reaffirmed full-year guidance of $1.22 billion to $1.28 billion.
- The valuation is mixed in an interesting way. Several methods land above the $21.60 price (the relative valuation near $28, residual income near $36), while the price itself implies fairly demanding multi-year growth. The asset-and-relative frames say there is value here, the growth frame says the price already asks a lot.
- The balance sheet is a genuine strength: the company is debt-free with about $851 million of net cash and a 30% return on equity. The risk is concentration and patents, not solvency. Two products, finite exclusivity windows, and a pipeline of binary readouts define the bet.
Bull Case
Look at how far the price sits below several of the valuation methods, because the gap suggests the market is discounting Acadia more than its current economics warrant. Those methods reflect a business earning a 30% return on equity with two profitable, growing products and a fortress balance sheet. The company is debt-free with about $851 million of net cash, which is roughly a tenth of the market value sitting in the bank, providing both downside protection and the firepower to fund pipeline development or acquire assets without dilution.
The commercial base is performing, not fading. First-quarter 2026 revenue was $268 million, with DAYBUE sales of $101 million up 20% year over year, helped by the launch of the new STIX formulation that saw early uptake with strong caregiver satisfaction, and NUPLAZID sales of $167 million up 6% on strong new referrals that strengthened through the quarter. Acadia reaffirmed full-year guidance of $1.22 billion to $1.28 billion in total revenue. DAYBUE is the only approved therapy for Rett syndrome, a rare neurodevelopmental disorder, which gives it orphan-drug protection and pricing power, and the STIX formulation is expanding its addressable use. Two profitable franchises in neurology and rare disease, both growing, is a more durable base than the market's discount implies.
The pipeline is the free option on top of a value base. The FY2025 10-K lays out the strategy of growing the core commercial franchises while expanding the pipeline in neurological and rare diseases, including rare-disease adjacencies (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-072519). Near-term, the company expects topline Phase 2 results for remlifanserin in Alzheimer's disease psychosis between August and October 2026, trofinetide readouts in Japan in the fall, and a European reexamination of DAYBUE. Any positive readout expands the franchise into a far larger market. The bull case is a debt-free, cash-rich, high-return business with two growing products trading below the value the asset and relative methods assign it, plus a pipeline of near-term catalysts that the price largely ignores.
Bear Case
The disruption that defines the bear case is the eventual loss of exclusivity on NUPLAZID, the drug that still provides nearly two-thirds of revenue. Every branded pharmaceutical faces a patent cliff, and when generics arrive for a drug this concentrated in the revenue base, the decline can be steep and fast. NUPLAZID has been on the market for years, and its remaining exclusivity is finite. A company whose largest product is approaching the back half of its patent life is a company the market is right to discount, because the question is not whether the cliff comes but whether the second product and the pipeline can replace the lost revenue before it does. That is a race, and Acadia is not clearly winning it yet.
DAYBUE, the supposed successor, has its own vulnerabilities that the bull case underplays. As the only approved Rett syndrome therapy it has a strong position, but tolerability has been a real-world issue, with discontinuation rates that have weighed on the launch, and the addressable patient population is small and largely identified, which caps the ceiling. The STIX formulation is an attempt to improve the experience and re-engage patients, which is necessary precisely because the original formulation faced adherence challenges. A franchise whose newest growth driver needed a reformulation to keep patients on therapy is not a sure thing.
The pipeline that is supposed to bridge the gap is a series of binary bets, and biotech binary readouts fail more often than they succeed. The remlifanserin Phase 2 in Alzheimer's psychosis, the trofinetide expansions, and the European reexamination are all events that can disappoint, and a single failed readout can erase the optionality the bull case leans on. The price already implies fairly demanding multi-year growth, with the inverted assumption sitting in the elevated range, so the market is not pricing in a NUPLAZID cliff cushioned by pipeline failures. The bear case is a concentrated two-product company facing a patent cliff on its largest drug, a successor with adherence challenges and a capped market, and a pipeline of coin-flip readouts, where the net cash is real comfort but does not change the underlying revenue cliff risk.
Valuation
Inverting the price shows a fairly demanding assumption. At $21.60 the market pays about 37 times company-wide operating income, which works backward to operating growth held near the top of its sustainable range for about nine years, solved at a 9.8% cost of capital. Treat the figure as approximate. On the historical base rate only about 21% of comparable fast-growers sustained a pace like that for that long, so the read comes out elevated, above what the fundamentals comfortably support. The high multiple on operating income partly reflects that operating income is depressed by heavy reinvestment and amortization, so the cash economics are better than 37 times suggests, but the implied growth is still a stretch.
The valuation X-ray is genuinely split, which is the central tension. The asset and relative methods land above the price: residual income near $36, the two-stage excess-return method near $44, the relative valuation near $28, and Peter Lynch and the Graham formula higher still, reflecting the 30% return on equity and the growing earnings. The growth and some earnings methods land at or below the price: the perpetual-growth DCF near $13, the discounted-future-market-cap method near $15, and the capitalized-FCF methods in the single digits because free cash flow is modest after reinvestment. So the methods that capitalize current profitability say undervalued, while the methods that price the cash flow and the growth runway say fully valued. The blended read sits near $26, above the price.
The balance sheet is the clear positive: net cash of about $851 million, no debt, and the cash alone is a meaningful fraction of the market value, providing real downside support. The valuation conclusion is that on its current profitability Acadia looks inexpensive, but the price has to be discounted for the NUPLAZID patent cliff and the binary pipeline, which is exactly what keeps it from trading at the higher asset-method values. This is a value-with-a-catalyst setup where the net cash limits the downside and the patent cliff caps how much the market will pay until the pipeline proves it can bridge the gap.
Catalysts
The first-quarter 2026 report, released in early May, was solid and came with a dense pipeline calendar. Total revenue was $268 million, with DAYBUE net product sales of $101 million up 20% year over year on the new STIX formulation launch, and NUPLAZID sales of $167 million up 6% on strengthening referrals. Acadia reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of $1.22 billion to $1.28 billion in total revenue, with NUPLAZID guided to $760 to $790 million and DAYBUE to $460 to $490 million.
The forward catalysts are a series of binary pipeline events clustered in the back half of 2026. The company expects topline Phase 2 results for remlifanserin in Alzheimer's disease psychosis between August and October, trofinetide topline results in Japan between September and November after enrollment completes, and a European reexamination of DAYBUE expected around late June. Each of these is a potential franchise-expanding event or a disappointment that removes optionality. Beyond the pipeline, the items to watch are DAYBUE adherence and STIX uptake, NUPLAZID demand trends, and any updates on the NUPLAZID exclusivity timeline. The next quarterly print, due in early August, will land near the first pipeline readouts. Positive Phase 2 data or a European reexamination win would re-rate the stock toward the higher asset-method values; a pipeline failure would refocus attention on the NUPLAZID cliff and the two-product concentration.
Sources: Acadia Q1 2026 financial results and guidance (acadia.com, sec.gov 8-K); ACADIA Q1 earnings call highlights (finance.yahoo.com); Acadia Q1 2026 pipeline update (sahmcapital.com).
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Development and commercialization of medicines (single segment) (reported)
- NBIX (NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …adversely affect our business, results of operations and future growth prospects, and could cause the market price of our common stock to decline. Only a small number of research and development programs ultimately result in commercially successful drugs. Potential products that appear to be promising at early stages…
- FY2025 10-K: …in clinical development by other companies targeting CAH. • Our investigational treatments for potential use in schizophrenia and depression may in the future compete with several development-stage programs being pursued by other companies. In addition, there are a number of different anti-psychotic, including the…
- SUPN (SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …from their commercialization. Moreover, many competitors have substantially greater: • Capital resources; • Research and development resources and experience, including personnel and technology; • Drug development, clinical trial and regulatory resources and experience, including personnel and technology; • Sales and…
- FY2025 10-K: , materially, and permanently impact our revenues, profitability, and cash flows from those products and may substantially limit our ability to obtain a return on the investments we have made in our products. If our competitors develop or market alternatives for the treatment of our target indications, our commercial…
- HRMY (HARMONY BIOSCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: Because a number of companies compete with us, many of which have greater resources than we do, and because we face rapid changes in science in our industry, we cannot be certain that our products will be accepted in the marketplace or capture market share. Competition from other biotechnology and pharmaceutical…
- FY2025 10-K: …territories where we may seek and obtain regulatory approval, the number of competitors in such markets, the acceptance of the price of WAKIX in those markets and the ability to obtain reimbursement at any price. If the number of our addressable patients is not as large as we estimate or the reasonably accepted…
- CORT (CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INC)
- FY2025 10-K: The increase of cost of sales as a percentage of revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025 compared to 2024 was primarily due to a decrease in the average selling price of our Products. Research and development expense - Research and development expense includes the cost of (1) recruiting and compensating…
- FY2025 10-K: …industry and the geographical areas from which we recruit. We depend on the principal members of our management and scientific staff. Any officer or employee may terminate his or her relationship with us at any time and work for a competitor. We do not have employment insurance covering any of our personnel. The loss…
- INDV (Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …on the market in the EU. There are various application procedures available depending on the type of product involved. The centralized procedure gives rise to marketing authorizations that are valid throughout the EU and, by extension (after national implementing decisions), in Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein,…
- FY2025 10-K: …and processes for the manufacture of products, and intermediate compounds useful in the manufacture of products. Protection for aspects of individual products extends for varying periods in accordance with the expiry dates of patents in the various countries. The protection afforded, which may also vary from country…
- AXSM (AXSOME THERAPEUTICS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …of additional subjects. Further, our product candidates may not receive regulatory approval even if they are successful in clinical trials. If approved for marketing by applicable regulatory authorities, our ability to generate revenues from our product candidates depend on our ability to: • create market demand for…
- FY2025 10-K: …and development experience provide us with competitive advantages, we face competition from many different sources, including major pharmaceutical, specialty pharmaceutical, and biotechnology companies, academic institutions and governmental agencies, and public and private research institutions. Several of these…
- ALKS (Alkermes plc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …in the commercialization and continued development of products from which we receive revenue and, if our licensees are not effective, or if disputes arise in respect of our contractual arrangements, our revenues could be materially adversely affected; • clinical trials for our product candidates are expensive, may…
- FY2025 10-K: …submissions, which could have a material adverse effect on our business. We may not be able to successfully expand our R&D pipeline or our commercial product portfolio, which could limit our growth potential. Our business is focused on the development and commercialization of medicines in the field of neuroscience,…
- JAZZ (Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc)
- FY2025 10-K: …some EU member states is for reimbursement price of medicinal products to be assessed against the relative price and cost of treatment of existing standard of care and competitor products, which may hinder the inclusion of newer innovative products in reimbursement lists. In December 2025, the European Parliament and…
- FY2025 10-K: …developed at Kent Science Park. As a result, our ability to develop and supply products in a timely and competitive manner depends primarily on third party suppliers being able to meet our ongoing commercial and clinical trial needs for API, other raw materials, packaging materials and finished products. In part due…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.