ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC.
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $150.17, ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC. (WMS) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~6.2 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. The narrative was composed June 28, 2026 from SEC EDGAR filings.
- The price near 147 dollars clears every static valuation frame and is reached only by the growth-DCF, the signature of a real moat: Advanced Drainage Systems leads the recycled-HDPE stormwater-pipe category with a 22.9 percent ROE and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 28 percent. - Fiscal 2026 delivered net sales of 3.05 billion dollars and adjusted EBITDA of 962.9 million dollars, with the higher-margin Allied and Infiltrator lines leading and an 11 percent dividend hike plus the accretive NDS a
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558 institutional managers reported holding WMS in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Together they hold about 88% of the company; the top 10 hold 40%. 87 opened new positions that quarter. Held by Vanguard Group, BlackRock, UBS, among others. On the short side, 3.1M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 4% of shares outstanding (2.7 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
WMS's share count grew 8.8% over the past five years even with $1.12B spent on repurchases. It pays a dividend, and has paid one every year in our records (13 and counting), raised 3 years straight; the current rate is $0.72 a share annually. Cash returned over the past three years: $138.77M in dividends and $321.41M in repurchases.
Share counts are split-adjusted; repurchase totals are gross of share issuance. Nothing here is investment advice.
No open-market insider buys on file at WMS over the trailing three years. Absence is a fact about the company, not a signal. 20 officers and directors are on file.
Code P open-market purchases from SEC Form 4 filings, non-derivative, excluding scheduled 10b5-1 plans. Nothing here is investment advice.
WMS's recent reports: the day-one move, then what the following quarter actually did.
| report | day one | next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-04 | +4.2% | -10.4% |
| 2023-11-03 | +4.1% | +14.1% |
| 2024-02-09 | +17.4% | +1.2% |
| 2024-05-17 | -1.2% | -4.3% |
Day-one is the close-to-close move around the filing. Nothing here is investment advice.
WMS's latest 8-K filings: 2026-08-06 (items 2.02, 7.01, 8.01, 9.01); 2026-07-16 (items 5.07, 9.01); 2026-06-18 (items 7.01, 9.01); 2026-05-21 (items 7.01, 9.01); 2026-05-21 (items 2.02, 7.01, 8.01, 9.01).
Item codes are the SEC's own classification of what each report discloses. Dates link to the filing on EDGAR. Nothing here is investment advice.
Model solve date: 2026-Q2
Narrative composed: June 28, 2026
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