SEMTECH CORP
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $121.33, SEMTECH CORP (SMTC) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~26.6 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. The narrative was composed July 11, 2026 from SEC EDGAR filings.
• Semtech is three businesses in one ticker, and the growth engine is the newest: the FY2026 10-K attributes Signal Integrity's expansion primarily to ⟦"an approximately $81.4 million increase in data center sales"⟧ as 800G and 1.6T optical and copper products ramp into AI clusters (accession 0000088941-26-000005). • The central risk is arithmetic, not operational: at $136.13 the market pays roughly 103 times trailing operating income, a bet requiring near-ceiling growth for close to three decad
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422 institutional managers reported holding SMTC in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. 74 opened new positions that quarter. Held by BlackRock, Vanguard Group, State Street, among others. On the short side, 7.2M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 7% of shares outstanding (2.4 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
SMTC's share count grew 43.5% over the past five years even with $154.75M spent on repurchases. It pays no dividend.
Share counts are split-adjusted; repurchase totals are gross of share issuance. Nothing here is investment advice.
Open-market insider buys at SMTC over the trailing three years: 2023: 1 buy totaling $497k; 2024: 1 buy totaling $33k. 17 officers and directors are on file.
Code P open-market purchases from SEC Form 4 filings, non-derivative, excluding scheduled 10b5-1 plans. Nothing here is investment advice.
SMTC's recent reports: the day-one move, then what the following quarter actually did.
| report | day one | next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-14 | +10.8% | -36.8% |
| 2023-12-07 | +16.4% | +4.3% |
| 2024-03-29 | -1.3% | +41.5% |
| 2024-06-06 | +1.6% | -22.0% |
Day-one is the close-to-close move around the filing. Nothing here is investment advice.
SMTC's latest 8-K filings: 2026-07-06 (items 1.01, 2.03, 9.01); 2026-06-08 (items 5.02, 5.07); 2026-05-26 (items 2.02, 7.01, 9.01); 2026-03-16 (items 2.02, 7.01, 9.01); 2025-11-24 (items 2.02, 7.01, 9.01).
Item codes are the SEC's own classification of what each report discloses. Dates link to the filing on EDGAR. Nothing here is investment advice.
Model solve date: 2026-Q2
Narrative composed: July 11, 2026
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For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. boothcheck is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.