Peloton Interactive, Inc.
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $6.51, Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~9.9 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. The narrative was composed June 28, 2026 from SEC EDGAR filings.
- The trajectory has turned. After years of losses, Peloton expects its first-ever full-year positive net income and operating income in fiscal 2026, with adjusted EBITDA guided to $470 million to $480 million, up about 18% at the midpoint. - Subscription is now two-thirds of revenue, a higher-margin recurring base, and net monthly churn improved to 1.2%. The model is steadier than the hardware-led business that nearly broke the company. - The valuation is the catch. At about $6 the price embeds
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421 institutional managers reported holding PTON in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Together they hold about 70% of the company; the top 10 hold 36%. 70 opened new positions that quarter. Held by Vanguard Group, BlackRock, D. E. Shaw, among others. On the short side, 57.0M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 11% of shares outstanding (5.9 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
PTON's share count grew 42.4% over the past five years. It pays no dividend.
Share counts are split-adjusted; repurchase totals are gross of share issuance. Nothing here is investment advice.
Open-market insider buys at PTON over the trailing three years: 2024: 1 buy totaling $133k. 15 officers and directors are on file.
Code P open-market purchases from SEC Form 4 filings, non-derivative, excluding scheduled 10b5-1 plans. Nothing here is investment advice.
PTON's recent reports: the day-one move, then what the following quarter actually did.
| report | day one | next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-24 | -21.2% | -19.2% |
| 2023-11-03 | +8.3% | +29.0% |
| 2024-02-02 | -23.7% | -14.6% |
| 2024-05-03 | +6.2% | +1.2% |
Day-one is the close-to-close move around the filing. Nothing here is investment advice.
PTON's latest 8-K filings: 2026-08-06 (items 2.02, 9.01); 2026-05-26 (items 5.02, 7.01, 9.01); 2026-05-07 (items 2.02, 9.01); 2026-03-17 (items 5.02, 7.01, 9.01); 2026-03-11 (items 5.02).
Item codes are the SEC's own classification of what each report discloses. Dates link to the filing on EDGAR. Nothing here is investment advice.
Model solve date: 2026-Q2
Narrative composed: June 28, 2026
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For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. boothcheck is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.