Ocular Therapeutix, Inc.
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $8.51, Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (OCUL) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~20.0 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. The narrative was composed June 27, 2026 from SEC EDGAR filings.
• Ocular Therapeutix already sells one FDA-approved product, DEXTENZA for post-surgical eye inflammation, but the stock is really about AXPAXLI, its once-yearly hydrogel implant for wet age-related macular degeneration that posted positive Phase 3 SOL-1 results. • The biggest risk is the price: at $9.41 no valuation method comes close, because the price bakes in years of AXPAXLI commercial success the company has not yet earned, while it burns roughly $300 million a year. • The funding position
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257 institutional managers reported holding OCUL in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Together they hold about 92% of the company; the top 10 hold 58%. 68 opened new positions that quarter. Held by FMR (Fidelity), BlackRock, Vanguard Group, among others. On the short side, 26.5M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 12% of shares outstanding (11.8 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
OCUL's share count grew 193.6% over the past five years. It pays no dividend.
Share counts are split-adjusted; repurchase totals are gross of share issuance. Nothing here is investment advice.
Open-market insider buys at OCUL over the trailing three years: 2023: 2 buys totaling $5.02M; 2024: 1 buy totaling $7.00M; 2025: 1 buy totaling $70k; 2026: 1 buy totaling $461k. 17 officers and directors are on file.
Code P open-market purchases from SEC Form 4 filings, non-derivative, excluding scheduled 10b5-1 plans. Nothing here is investment advice.
OCUL's recent reports: the day-one move, then what the following quarter actually did.
| report | day one | next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-08 | -13.8% | -26.7% |
| 2023-11-08 | -10.9% | +87.0% |
| 2024-03-12 | -6.9% | -34.9% |
| 2024-05-08 | -0.9% | +24.5% |
Day-one is the close-to-close move around the filing. Nothing here is investment advice.
OCUL's latest 8-K filings: 2026-08-03 (items 2.02, 9.01); 2026-06-12 (items 5.02, 5.07, 9.01); 2026-05-05 (items 2.02, 9.01); 2026-02-27 (items 7.01); 2026-02-05 (items 2.02, 9.01).
Item codes are the SEC's own classification of what each report discloses. Dates link to the filing on EDGAR. Nothing here is investment advice.
Model solve date: 2026-Q2
Narrative composed: June 27, 2026
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For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. boothcheck is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.