The GEO Group, Inc.
At today's price, The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) is priced for +17.9% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high. Built from SEC EDGAR filings.
- GEO Group's earnings are inflecting on federal immigration policy: Q1 2026 revenue up 17% to $705.2 million, EPS more than doubling to $0.29, occupancy up to 89% from 85%, and ICE contracts now 51% of revenue. - At $29 the price leans on the relative multiple alone (blended landing near $24, reverse-DCF base near $17), with an inversion-implied 17% operating-income growth that extrapolates the policy-driven surge. - The central risk is concentration and reversibility: more than half of revenue
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250 institutional managers reported holding GEO in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Together they hold about 95% of the company; the top 10 hold 61%. 39 opened new positions that quarter. Held by BlackRock, Vanguard Group, UBS, among others. On the short side, 9.8M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 7% of shares outstanding (4.9 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
GEO's share count grew 10.1% over the past five years even with $141.12M spent on repurchases. It pays no dividend. Cash returned over the past three years: $141.12M in repurchases.
Share counts are split-adjusted; repurchase totals are gross of share issuance. Nothing here is investment advice.
Open-market insider buys at GEO over the trailing three years: 2024: 6 buys totaling $3.69M. 24 officers and directors are on file.
Code P open-market purchases from SEC Form 4 filings, non-derivative, excluding scheduled 10b5-1 plans. Nothing here is investment advice.
GEO's recent reports: the day-one move, then what the following quarter actually did.
| report | day one | next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-09 | +0.8% | +30.5% |
| 2023-02-28 | -4.7% | -15.2% |
| 2023-05-04 | -1.3% | -2.6% |
| 2024-03-01 | -1.3% | +21.2% |
Day-one is the close-to-close move around the filing. Nothing here is investment advice.
GEO's latest 8-K filings: 2026-05-06 (items 2.02, 9.01); 2026-05-04 (items 5.07); 2026-03-05 (items 5.02, 7.01, 9.01); 2026-02-12 (items 5.02, 7.01, 9.01); 2026-02-12 (items 2.02, 9.01).
Item codes are the SEC's own classification of what each report discloses. Nothing here is investment advice.
Last analyzed: June 27, 2026
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For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. boothcheck is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.