Firefly Aerospace Inc.
At today's price, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~40.0 years+. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high. Built from SEC EDGAR filings.
• Firefly is a space-launch and lunar-services company whose 2025 milestone was a Blue Ghost lander reaching the Moon, and it is still pre-profit: trailing revenue is about $180 million against a deeply negative operating margin, so the price is a bet on a business that has not yet earned a normal profit. • The biggest near-term risk is concentration and execution: the 10-K discloses that ⟦"our top five backlog customers accounted for approximately 81% of our backlog as of December 31, 2025,"⟧ a
Is FLY overvalued? See what's priced in →
203 institutional managers reported holding FLY in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Together they hold about 40% of the company; the top 10 hold 31%. 88 opened new positions that quarter. Held by Vanguard Group, BlackRock, Capital Group (American Funds), among others. On the short side, 11.8M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 7% of shares outstanding (1.5 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
Open-market insider buys at FLY over the trailing three years: 2025: 5 buys totaling $1.10M. 15 officers and directors are on file.
Code P open-market purchases from SEC Form 4 filings, non-derivative, excluding scheduled 10b5-1 plans. Nothing here is investment advice.
FLY's recent reports: the day-one move, then what the following quarter actually did.
| report | day one | next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | +12.0% | +38.6% |
| 2026-03-21 | +0.1% | +113.2% |
| 2026-05-05 | -6.8% | pending |
Day-one is the close-to-close move around the filing. Nothing here is investment advice.
FLY's latest 8-K filings: 2026-06-05 (items 5.07); 2026-06-02 (items 1.01, 9.01); 2026-05-04 (items 2.02, 9.01); 2026-04-21 (items 5.02, 9.01); 2026-04-03 (items 1.01, 2.03, 5.02, 8.01).
Item codes are the SEC's own classification of what each report discloses. Nothing here is investment advice.
Last analyzed: June 15, 2026
Each week boothcheck ranks the stocks whose prices are betting on the most. Read the most stretched bets archive →
boothcheck is also on Android. Get the app on Google Play →
For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. boothcheck is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.