CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC.
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $38.00, CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC. (CMG) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~5.1 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. The narrative was composed August 4, 2026 from SEC EDGAR filings.
• Unlike most of the chains it gets measured against, Chipotle owns and runs its restaurants rather than collecting royalties from franchisees, so the $12.14B of revenue is the whole customer check and the 15.9% operating margin is what survives after paying for the food, the crew and the building. • The single biggest risk is that the growth engine is construction: the FY2025 annual report states that ⟦"Our growth depends on our ability to open new restaurants at an aggressive rate and operate
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1,208 institutional managers reported holding CMG in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Together they hold about 84% of the company; the top 10 hold 46%. 100 opened new positions that quarter. Held by Vanguard Group, BlackRock, Capital Group (American Funds), among others. On the short side, 50.0M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 4% of shares outstanding (2 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
CMG has cut its share count 7.7% over the past five years, spending $6.14B on repurchases. It pays no dividend. Cash returned over the past three years: $4.64B in repurchases.
Share counts are split-adjusted; repurchase totals are gross of share issuance. Nothing here is investment advice.
Open-market insider buys at CMG over the trailing three years: 2023: 2 buys totaling $2.00M; 2025: 1 buy totaling $498k. 20 officers and directors are on file.
Code P open-market purchases from SEC Form 4 filings, non-derivative, excluding scheduled 10b5-1 plans. Nothing here is investment advice.
CMG's recent reports: the day-one move, then what the following quarter actually did.
| report | day one | next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-29 | -10.0% | -4.2% |
| 2023-10-28 | +2.5% | +21.2% |
| 2024-02-09 | +7.9% | +12.1% |
| 2024-04-26 | +6.8% | -1.7% |
Day-one is the close-to-close move around the filing. Nothing here is investment advice.
CMG's latest 8-K filings: 2026-08-05 (items 7.01); 2026-07-29 (items 2.02, 8.01, 9.01); 2026-07-08 (items 8.01); 2026-06-17 (items 5.07); 2026-04-29 (items 2.02, 9.01).
Item codes are the SEC's own classification of what each report discloses. Dates link to the filing on EDGAR. Nothing here is investment advice.
Model solve date: 2026-Q2
Narrative composed: August 4, 2026
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For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. boothcheck is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.