BLUE BIRD CORPORATION
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $67.01, BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (BLBD) is priced for +2.3% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. The narrative was composed July 25, 2026 from SEC EDGAR filings.
• Alternative powered buses, meaning propane, gasoline and electric rather than diesel, are now 54% of revenue, and the 10-K notes that ⟦Since 2012, Blue Bird has deployed more than 40,000 alternative fuel powered school buses⟧. • Order coverage is the pressure point: backlog ran about 4,400 units in March 2025, fell to roughly 3,070 by the end of fiscal 2025, and recovered only to about 3,560 units by March 28, 2026, with units booked in the quarter down 6.4% year over year. • The balance sheet
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274 institutional managers reported holding BLBD in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. 43 opened new positions that quarter. Held by BlackRock, FMR (Fidelity), Vanguard Group, among others. On the short side, 3.6M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 11% of shares outstanding (9.6 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
BLBD's share count grew 16.4% over the past five years even with $15.72M spent on repurchases. It pays no dividend. Cash returned over the past three years: $13.96M in repurchases.
Share counts are split-adjusted; repurchase totals are gross of share issuance. Nothing here is investment advice.
Open-market insider buys at BLBD over the trailing three years: 2024: 1 buy totaling $27k; 2025: 3 buys totaling $54k; 2026: 1 buy totaling $20k. 14 officers and directors are on file.
Code P open-market purchases from SEC Form 4 filings, non-derivative, excluding scheduled 10b5-1 plans. Nothing here is investment advice.
BLBD's recent reports: the day-one move, then what the following quarter actually did.
| report | day one | next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-12 | +35.6% | -14.1% |
| 2023-08-10 | -5.0% | -3.7% |
| 2024-02-08 | -2.7% | +19.9% |
| 2024-05-09 | +25.9% | +8.0% |
Day-one is the close-to-close move around the filing. Nothing here is investment advice.
BLBD's latest 8-K filings: 2026-08-05 (items 2.02, 7.01, 9.01); 2026-08-05 (items 1.01, 7.01, 9.01); 2026-05-18 (items 1.01, 9.01); 2026-05-06 (items 2.02, 7.01, 9.01); 2026-04-02 (items 2.01, 3.02, 5.02, 5.03, 7.01, 9.01).
Item codes are the SEC's own classification of what each report discloses. Dates link to the filing on EDGAR. Nothing here is investment advice.
Model solve date: 2026-Q2
Narrative composed: July 25, 2026
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For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. boothcheck is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.